Plastics. The Future for
Automakers and
Chemical Companies
As legislative bodies hammer out laws to reduce
man-made emissions, and $150-a-barrel oil seems
feasible, it is fair to project that by 2020 plastics will
comprise 18 percent of the average vehicle’s weight.
Plastics. The Future for Automakers and Chemical Companies
1
Who could forget the scene in The Graduate when Dustin Hoffman’s character Ben Braddock,
college degree in hand, is taken aside by older, wiser Mr. McGuire to hear the secret of success?
“I just want to say one word to you, just one word. Are you listening?” “Yes, sir, I am,” Ben replies.
“Plastics. There is a great future in plastics. Think of that. Will you think of that?” “Yes, I will,”
mumbles Ben. “Enough said,” declares Mr. McGuire. “That’s a deal.”1
Today, more than 40 years after Mr. McGuire uttered these words, engineered plastics are fast
becoming the future for two industries—chemical and automotive—as environmental concerns
are increasingly affecting both. Even in emerging countries, legislative bodies are hammering
out laws aimed at reducing man-made emissions that threaten the environment. Add to this
the lingering effects of the global economic crisis and the result is a profound change in global
manufacturing.
For optimal fuel efficiency, automakers
are using more lightweight materials—
plastics and polymer-based components.
At the same time, increased competition for energy sources and a growing demand for automobiles are putting pressure on oil prices, and the notion of $150 a barrel no longer seems unrealistic. And regulators in both developed and emerging nations are legislating vehicle-emission
standards and encouraging recyclability as a means by which to address both energy costs and
environmental concerns.
Figure 11
Plastics will account for
p from 14 percent
for 18
18percent
percentof
ofaverage
averagevehicle
vehicleweight
weightby
by2020,
2020,u
in
2000
up from 14 percent in 2000
Percentage of total vehicle weight
100%
6%
79%
2%
9%
76%
2%
75%
13%
14%
16%
18%
5%
65%
6%
63%
6%
61%
7%
55%
Plastics
Rubber
Metals
Others
50%
25%
0%
14%
14%
1970
1980
1,100 kg
1,180 kg
17%
18%
18%
20%
1990
2000
2010
2020
1,260 kg 1,340 kg 1,400 kg 1,100 kg
Average vehicle
weight
Notes: kg
kg == kilogram.
kilogram. Due
Due to
to rounding,
rounding, some
some percentages
percentages may
may not
not add
add up
up to
to 100.
100.
Notes:
Source: A.T.
A.T. Kearney
Kearney analysis
analysis
Source:
1To view the scene, click here.
Plastics. The Future for Automakers and Chemical Companies
2
The trend toward lightweight vehicles is a prime example. Since 2008—not coincidentally the
year the global economy bottomed out—the average vehicle weight has dropped 20 percent,
which translates into a similar reduction in per-vehicle emissions. In Europe, analysts project
that by 2020, the average vehicle weight will shrink to a little more than a ton—its 1970 level—
after peaking at nearly 1.5 tons in 2010.
The main reason for the trend, of course, is that lightweight vehicles are more fuel efficient.
Ironically, another fuel-efficiency trend—electric power trains—results in heavier cars. While
standard engines account for about 12 percent of a car’s total weight, electric power trains
account for 20 percent due to the extra-heavy battery.
To preserve optimum fuel efficiency, automakers are using materials that are more lightweight—
plastics and polymer-based components. We project that over the next decade, plastics will
account for 18 percent of the average vehicle’s weight, up from 14 percent in 2000 (see figure 1).
More than a hundred types and grades of plastic, categorized by performance requirements
such as appearance, rigidity, resistance, weight, and cost, are used in the average vehicle.
For instance, polypropylene (PP) is used in dashboards, wheel covers, and some engine parts;
polyurethane (PUR) is employed in seats; polyethylene (PE) in carpets; and polyamide (PA)
in parts that need to be heat- and chemical-resistant. Mass-volume plastics—acrylonitrile
butadiene styrene (ABS), PP, PUR, and nylon—account for 70 percent of the plastics used in a
car, while composites and higher-end plastics account for the rest.
Importantly, plastic consumption patterns vary by region, sometimes even from one automotive
original equipment manufacturer to another. European manufacturers use more plastics than
those in North America and Japan. The latter have been slow to switch to petroleum-based
plastics and are less familiar with high-grade plastics, and so continue to use more steel.
The Challenges for Plastics
As automakers are challenged to build vehicles that are more environmentally friendly, they
will use more plastics. This presents a significant opportunity for chemical companies. Taking
full advantage of this opportunity, however, will require dealing with a new set of challenges.
Among the most daunting of these are the following:
• More competition from steel. Steel is still cheaper than plastics and benefits from innovations—in either product (for example, dual grades, tailored blanks) or process (for example,
laser-welding)—that have improved its performance and reduced its weight.
• Price volatility. As prices are based on oil costs, they change quickly.
• Regular shortages. A relatively small number of global plants supplies all industries
(especially for intermediates production).
• Recyclability. Here, steel has the edge again, largely because the numerous different types
and grades of plastics are difficult to recycle.
To meet this last challenge—recyclability—chemical companies have had to develop ways to
reduce plastic’s environmental footprint with bio-sourced and recyclable materials. Bioplastics
are produced from renewables, with two main agricultural sources—starch-based, derived
mostly from sugar cane; and corn, potatoes, beets, and oil polymers (see figure 2). As a result,
bioplastics’ primary raw material base is diversified and its dependency on oil reduced.
Plastics. The Future for Automakers and Chemical Companies
3
Figure 22
Five primary ways to
to produce
producebioplastics
bioplastics
Sugar chemistry
Monomer production from sugar fermentation
Seeds
Cultivation
Extraction
Fermentation
Polymerization
Examples:
lactic acid, ethanol
Example:
polylactic acid
Polymer production from sugar fermentation
Seeds
Cultivation
Extraction
Polymer
fermentation
Example:
Polyhydroxyalkanoates
Oil chemistry
Polymer production from molecules extracted from plants (oil)
Seeds
Cultivation
Extraction
Polymer
fermentation
Example:
Rilsan
Mechanical
approach
Extraction from plant polymers (starch)
Seeds
Thermochemistry
Cultivation
Polymer
extraction
Thermochemical process
Seeds
Cultivation
Gasification
Monomer
re-composition
Polymerization
Source: A.T. Kearney analysis
Author to insert legend text
Author
to insert legend
text
Although
bioplastics
comprised
less than 1 percent of all plastics in 2009 (with a global capacity
of only 900 kilotons), its production has grown by more than 40 percent annually since 2007.
Source: A.T. Kearney analysis
The market is still highly fragmented, however, with few bioplastics manufacturers targeting
automotive as a major outlet (some applications can be found within polylactic acid, polyhydroxyalkanoates, polyamide 11, and polyethylene terephthalate). Given current and planned
production volumes and the price correlation of agricultural raw materials with oil prices,
bioplastics will remain non-cost competitive with traditional plastics and will at best supply 20
percent of total plastics needs.
An additional concern for bioplastics makers is that in Europe, new regulations require a large
proportion of vehicle materials to be recyclable by 2015. A European Union directive requires
95 percent of an end-of-life vehicle to be valorized and 85 percent of that to be recycled. This
means 60 percent of a vehicle’s plastics have to be recycled. We expect to see similar legislation being introduced in other regions of the world in the foreseeable future (see figure 3).
The problem is that while recycled plastics are environmentally friendlier and less costly than
non-recyclable ones, they are less pure and do not perform as well. Thus, recycled products
might enrich the portfolio, but cannot always be used as a substitute for virgin resins.
Plastics. The Future for Automakers and Chemical Companies
4
Nonbiodegradable
Fully
biodegradable
Figure 3
Figure 3
The evolution toward environmentally friendly plastics
The evolution toward environmentally friendly plastics
?
Near-term
plastics
Current
plastics
Bioplastic
2010
(prototype)
Fully petroleum-based
Bioplastic
2015
Fully organic
Source: A.T. Kearney analysis
Source: A.T. Kearney analysis
In attempting to resolve this dilemma, there is a third option: composites that combine the
advantage of steel and plastics. These fiber-reinforced plastics represent a credible alternative
to steel both in terms of material characteristics and cost competitiveness (see figure 4). Fiberreinforced plastics are now being used to make structural and non-structural components such
as seat structures, bumpers, hoods, and fuel tanks.
Joining Forces
To become more plastics-oriented, the automotive industry and the chemical industry are
likely to join forces in a value chain that includes peripheral companies such as plastic-injection
companies and automotive suppliers. This integrated value chain will have two goals: first,
improving plastic’s performance standards to better meet consumer needs and comply with
government regulations; and second, developing innovative ways to reach sometimes contradictory objectives of sustainability.
Improving performance
By improving performance we mean improving resistance, stiffness, weight, sustainability,
and aesthetics, to name a few factors. The auto companies will want to move material considerations upstream in the overall design process, especially to align safety criteria and energyefficiency goals. And they will want to convince suppliers to develop polymer-based materials
that leverage the properties and benefits of plastics—this in turn can generate innovation and
new automotive applications. Collaborative research and development will be more focused
on material properties and technology issues. If involved early enough, plastics can be used
to substitute parts like-for-like, and also deliver an advantage by improving aesthetics, and
Plastics. The Future for Automakers and Chemical Companies
5
Figure 4
offer several
severaladvantages
advantagesin
interms
termsof
oftechnical
technical
Fiber-reinforced plastic composites offer
performance
Weight
Typically 25 to 35 percent lighter than steel parts of equal strength
Manufacturing
Faster to assemble, as fewer parts are required, which cuts manufacturing costs
and complexity, and often speeds up the design process and new model launch
Tooling
Less than half the cost—40 percent—of steel-stamping
Damage resistance
Ding and dent superior to that of aluminum and steel panels
Corrosion resistance Better corrosion resistance than most materials in any application,
automotive or otherwise
Internal damping
Less noise, less vibration, less harshness
Design
More versatile—molding offers geometric details, shape complexity, and a depth-ofdraw range unavailable with metal stamping; in some cases, it is impossible to
manufacture a vehicle part with other materials
Source: A.T. Kearney Real Companies, Real Growth study, 2011
Sources: Automotive Composites Alliance; A.T. Kearney analysis
reducing costs and vehicle weight. This latter point, reducing vehicle weight, is accomplished
via suppression of sub-assemblies; for example, new thin seats are the result of merging foam,
fabric, and structure.
However, such breakthrough innovations will require a complete re-engineering of system
architecture, and therefore will need to be initiated sufficiently in advance of a program’s
design phase. Also, industries will have to join forces to develop predictive engineering tools,
shared performance models, and material-properties data for composites (to help develop
prototypes). Industries will also work together to investigate new production and assembly
processes, such as a way to join plastics and metals.
Increasing sustainability
As for the often contradictory objectives of sustainability, plastics can be environmentally
friendly and contribute to the overall “greening” of the automotive industry. Figure 5 illustrates
the effect one vehicle can have on the environment in terms of greenhouse gases.
Aside from the obvious and vital objective of reducing vehicle weight, other green areas include
assessing the trade-offs between bio-based and petroleum-based plastics, the recyclability of a
vehicle (and biodegradability of its components), and the extent to which production processes
are energy efficient. Automotive applications are in general “investments” with respect to the
use of carbon. Unlike dispersive applications of chemicals, such as shampoo, or short lifecycle applications, such as plastic bags, the trade-off between bio and petroleum-based is
less compelling. Quite the reverse, recycling appears to be the one mid-term challenge to be
confronted worldwide. This implies not only developing recyclable materials with sufficient
performance but also introducing recyclable automotive parts.
Plastics. The Future for Automakers and Chemical Companies
6
Figure 5
How a vehicle produces greenhouse gas
Equivalent of CO2 kilograms per ton1
50,000
47,000
500
40,000
-20%
Recycling and waste
-38%
Vehicle usage
37,000
Parts and vehicle
assembly
500
29,000
30,000
39,000
500
31,000
20,000
Components production
(plastic injection)
Raw materials production
(chemicals, compounding)
24,000
10,000
0
2,000
1,500
4,000
1,000
1,200
3,500
700
1,000
3,000
1,253 kg
1,000 kg
800 kg
Average vehicle weight
190 kg
225 kg
275 kg
Weight of plastics in average
vehicle
1CO2isiscarbon
carbondioxide.
dioxide.
1CO2
Source:
A.T. Kearney
Kearney analysis
analysis
Source: A.T.
Again, meeting both performance and sustainability challenges will require substantial collaboration throughout the complex automotive-plastics value chain—including the creation of a
downstream recyclability industry.
Plastic Power
The bottom line is that to remain competitive and prosperous, the automotive industry has to
develop affordable vehicles that comply with increasingly stringent environmental regulations,
and the chemical industry has to become more involved in the auto industry. The key for both
industries lies in one word: Plastics.
Authors
Goetz Klink, partner, Stuttgart
goetz.o.klink@atkearney.com
Gaël Rouilloux, partner, Paris
gael.rouilloux@atkearney.com
Ojas Wadivkar, partner, Middle East
ojas.wadivkar@atkearney.com
Bartek Znojek, principal, Middle East
bartek.znojek@atkearney.com
Plastics. The Future for Automakers and Chemical Companies
7
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Plastics. The Future for Automakers and Chemical Companies
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