ROM BACKGROUND CONCLUSION SHEET (ONGOING) ROM ID Project Title Country Project Task Manager C-303093 / MR-146849.05 Clima East: Supporting Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation in Russia and eastern Neighbourh Expert(s) ROM field visit dates Moldova Bella NESTOROVA start: Ruth MALLESON 2 Jul 2013 1. RELEVANCE end: 19 Nov 2013 The extent to which the objectives of the intervention are still consistent with beneficiaries’ needs and partners' and donor's policies. 1.1 Does the intervention presently respond to the needs of the target groups? a. Were there any changes in the situation of the target groups and the context which have, or will, influence the relevance of the operation for target groups? b. Have the activities of other actors such as government and donors changed the needs and priorities of the target groups? c. From the target groups' perspective, what is the level of priority of the needs the operation is addressing? A B C D Target groups of the Clima East Part II Project, referred to from now on as the "Clima East Pilots Project" or the "Pilots Project" include: 18 communities (c. 51,290 people) living in and around Orhei National Park, the Ministry of Environment (MoE), Ministry of Agriculture and Food Industries, Moldsilva Forestry Agency, Forest Research and Management Institute (ICAS), local and regional government authorities, NGOs, and scientific institutions. Continuing political tensions over the last three years are a problem for target groups. The inability to elect a president has delayed reforms. The country is facing elections. This has made long term planning for national and local government departments problematic. Moldova is currently going through a process of decentralisation and this has disrupted funding for Local Public Authorities (Local Councils). The MoE has internal communication problems which negatively impacts on the Project's ability to work with staff. From the target groups' perspective, the Project addresses a priority need. Moldova is a relatively poor, developing country, which makes it more vulnerable to adverse climate impacts, have fewer resources with which to adapt and to recover losses caused by extreme weather events and, in general, more dependent upon the natural environment for livelihoods. This poses a threat to Moldova achieving the Millennium Development Goals. The energy sector of Moldova is very vulnerable due to limited production capacity, low energy efficiency and insecure supply. Energy imports cover almost all the country's energy needs. Recent developments on the global energy markets hit Moldovan consumers particularly hard. Prices for imported gas and electricity have risen significantly in the past few years. The target area, the recently established (2013) Orhei National Park and surrounding buffer zone, is located in the Plain of Central Moldova, which has been identified as one of the areas most likely to be affected by climate change. According to projections, the annual mean air temperature is likely to increase by 4.1- 5.4 degrees C by the end of this century and is likely to be accompanied by a decline in precipitation. The area is highly affected by soil erosion and it is proposed that part of it should be afforested during 2013-2016. Moldova suffered unprecedented hot weather in June - August 2012 leading to crop and livestock losses including a 23% loss in agricultural production. Degraded pastures, high costs of imported fossil fuels (mainly natural gas), continuing rural out-migration, de-stocking (which is an on-going trend in Moldova, the national cattle herd is being reduced by some 10,000 head of cattle per year mainly due to rural migration) are all key issues for local people, though many local people are not fully aware of the effects of climate change. This Project aims to address these issues through restoring pastures, creating community forests that will provide firewood and improving livestock and forest related livelihood opportunities. Priority needs for the Orhei National Park Administration include the conservation and sustainable management of pastures within the Park and the development of a robust system for monitoring carbon dividends and ecological integrity of pastures and forest ecosystems within the Park to enable it to respond to pressures on natural resources in the area. Page 1 of 18 1.2 Does the operation presently support the policy (or its development) of the partner government and is it in line with existing policy? A B C D Moldova signed the United National Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992 and ratified it in 1995. This led to the First National Communication of the Republic of Moldova on Climate Change, which reflected national aspects of vulnerability and analysed climate change trends in Moldova. In February 2003, the Republic of Moldova acceded to the Kyoto Protocol. Both the PP and OO are consistent with and supportive of Moldovan policies which refer to the need for the enhancement b. Is the operation supporting the development or improvement of a sector of national capacity for climate change preparedness, particularly on poor and rural communities and establishing an enabling environment for resilience to climate change. policy? The Project is in line with: 1) the Government of Moldova's Programme for Conservation and Increase the Soil Fertility 2003-2010. However, due to lack of funding only about 5% of activities under this programme were implemented to date, it has now been extended to 2020. The programme states that soil erosion problems could be solved through afforestation activities on lands affected by landslides and ravine formation and effective grassland restoration and management. According to the Programme's Action Plan (2011-2020) approximately 12,800 ha. of community degraded lands will be afforested from 2013-2016 and approximately 50,000 ha are planned to be improved through agricultural techniques, including pasture management; 2) the National Strategy for Sustainable Development of the Agricultural Complex for 2008-2015, which recognizes that climate change can affect food security through erosion, droughts and floods; 3) Action Plan for Drought Mitigation Measure in the Agri-Food Sector (2012-2015), which pays special attention to the improvement of the management of pastures for reducing the impact of droughts on the livestock sector; 4) the draft National Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change (2013), the Strategy for Sustainable Development of Forestry (2001), the National Action Plan for Afforestation (2013-2015) and the National Energy Strategy (2030) which envisages the establishment of local forest plantations to meet firewood needs for heating, cooking as an effective measure for climate adaptation. a. Have there been any changes in Partner government policy which have had, or will have, an impact on the relevance of the operation? 1.3 Is the operation in line with EC development policy and strategies? a. Is the operation in line with the latest EU development cooperation policy? b. Is it aligned with EU policy for the specific sector in the country/region? c. Does the operation respect the EU's international commitments such as the Paris Declaration and follow-up? d. Is the operation embedded in and supporting policy dialogue which the EUD/HQ is engaged in? Note: a = very good; b = good; c = problems; d = serious deficiencies. A B C D The Project supports EU development and cooperation strategies including the Country Strategic Plan, through addressing key issues identified by it including: protection of nature, climate change, promoting local renewable energy sources, the implementation of multilateral environmental agreements especially the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol agreement. The Project will facilitate an integrated approach to policy development and the need for an understanding of the close inter-relationships between climate change and biodiversity in the context of the European Neighbourhood Policy, as underlined by the EC Climate Change White Paper. The operation is embedded in and supporting policy dialogue which the EUD and HQ are engaged in. The Head of Sector, RPNE DEVCO visited in February 2013 to discuss relevance of Project. A representative of the EU Del has had preliminary meeting with the UNDP Pilots team and will be a member of the Project Board with observer status, however as of September 2013 the Board had not met. Overall conclusion - Relevance A Page 2 of 18 2. QUALITY OF DESIGN The internal coherence and validity of the intervention logic, its formalization in a logframe (or other format) and the implementation arrangements. 2.1 Does the present intervention logic still hold true and is it clear and coherent? A B C D A "Results and Resources Framework" similar to a logframe exists, is of reasonable quality and coherent. The approach takes into account previous experience and knowledge in similar interventions. Pasture inventories, which will form the basis for the design of pasture management plans (R1), will be based on data from the Agency for Land b. Is the operation's underlying Relations and Cadastre and other national institutions. Development of forest intervention logic coherent, clear and management plans (R1) will use a similar approach to “Improving Forest Law realistic? Enforcement and Governance in the European Neighbourhood Policy East Countries and c. Is the approach adopted in the design Russia” (ENPI FLEG) Programme. For R2, the pasture restoration approach will either be taking sufficiently into account previous based on: 1) methodology and guidelines developed under the Community Support experience and state of the art Program for Sustainable and Integrated Forest Management and Carbon Sequestration knowledge in similar interventions? though Forestation" or other tested methodology; or 2) the methodology described in the book "Steppe vegetation Republic of Moldova, Shabanova G.A. 2012 and tested in d. Are the resources, capacity and the framework of the TACIS project "Sustainable Integrated Land Use of the Eurasian timeframe adequate to achieve the Steppe" in the Cahul region. Afforestation will be undertaken according to the national project purpose? guidelines on scientific forest management and silvicultural practices implemented by Moldsilva. For R3, the Project will use experience in GHG inventory and vulnerability e. Does the intervention logic explicitly mention risks and assumptions and are assessment tools of CDM project: Moldova Soil Conservation Project for carbon monitoring and assessment of degraded lands. Risks not mentioned in the logframe they specific, up to date and holding true? Are risk management include: 1) the Project proposes to use native tree species for reafforestation, however arrangements in place? there is little knowledge on how native species will perform in a changing climate; 2) Project reafforestation activities may reduce land available for pastures, negatively f. To which degree does the design impacting on local herders; 3) Lack of commitment from Local Public Authorities (LPAs) foresee sufficient flexibility for and the state to invest fees paid by pasture users in order to manage communal pasture adaptation to a changing context? land. It is important that risk management strategies are in place to deal with these issues. These could be reported on in the next annual report. It would therefore appear g. Are the indicators SMART? advisable to use a good mix of native species for risk 1) for example. An assumption made by the Project is that there are no existing livestock or forest user associations. However, during the course of the ROM mission it became apparent that there are existing livestock associations. It is recommended that the Project should carry out a stakeholder analysis exercise to identify existing local institutions involved in pasture management and livestock production. Another assumption made by the Project is that there are no existing local pasture and forestry management practices. It is recommended that the Project should work with local people to find out if such practices exist and where possible build on them or incorporate them into the pasture management plans. It is important, as part of the Ecosystem based Approach to Climate Change to acknowledge the value of local as well as scientific knowledge to develop sustainable natural resource management practices. Currently most indicators on the Project work plan are not SMART. For example, indicators such as "number of hectares of pasture land restored", it could be improved by listing plant species used by local people which indicate that pastures are healthy, undergrazed or overgrazed. Ideally indicators should be "SPICED" Subjective, Participatory, Interpreted, Cross-checked, Empowering and Diverse. a. Does a logframe exist and what is its quality? Page 3 of 18 2.2. Do the implementation arrangements take into account the capacity of the partners, and is the design fully supported by them? a. Are the timescale and activities realistic with regard to the stakeholders' capacities, organizational structure and implementation arrangements? b. Have the relevant stakeholders been actively involved, as a driving force, in the design process? c. Do all relevant stakeholders, especially the target group, understand and agree on the intervention logic? d. Are the roles and responsibilities of all partners clearly defined and understood by all concerned? e. Does the operation foresee adequate capacity development support? Note: a = very good; b = good; c = problems; d = serious deficiencies. B C D a. The Project is quite ambitious, given the timescale, relatively limited stakeholder capacities: the MoE and LPAs are currently underfunded and understaffed. Forest Agency Moldsilva, Forest Research and Management Institute (ICAS), the Ministries of Environment and Agriculture and the Agency for Land Relations and Cadastre were involved with the design for the Clima East Pilots Project in Moldova from the beginning of 2013.These organisations, together with LPAs will be involved in selecting the most suitable plots for restoration in accordance with approved criteria. The final list of selected pilot plots will be based on collected data and field visits by an Evaluation Panel, consisting of the Project team, experts in the field of climate change, agriculture and pasture management. However it is not clear whether or how local people will be involved in pilot plot selection. It is important that they are, to facilitate local project ownership and sustainability. LPAs are expected to delegate responsible staff to manage the planted sites and establish cattle breeder associations, however it is uncertain whether they will have sufficient capacity, given limited staff and budgets. Moldsilva and ICAS are both Project Partners with relatively strong capacity and considerable experience of working on community forestry and pasture management issues in Moldova through former projects including "Community Support Program for Sustainable and Integrated Forest Management and Carbon Sequestration through Forestation", the Moldova Soil Conservation Project (MSCP) Project and the ENPI FLEG Project. It is recommended that Moldsilva's Auxillary Department should be involved in identification of tree species for community forests, together with local communities, as they carry our research on economically significant non-timber forest products. Government institutions and LPAs involved in the Project understand the intervention logic, their roles and responsibilities appear to be relatively clearly defined and understood. However, local communities appear to have not been so actively involved in the design process and are not clear about the roles and responsibilities they will have in the Project. This is partly because the Project is at an early stage and the specific Pilot Project areas have not been identified yet. 2.3 Is the current design sufficiently taking cross-cutting issues into account? a. Have the relevant cross-cutting issues (environment, gender, human rights and governance, donor coordination or others) been adequately mainstreamed in the design? A A B C D No specific gender or human rights analyses appear to have been made during the design phase. Environment issues are, to some extent, mainstreamed in project design through encouraging sustainable pasture and forest management. However, care needs to be taken to encourage the use of indigenous pasture and forest species and discourage dependence on more costly exotic species and artificial fertilisers. Donor coordination has been taken into account and is well mainstreamed in Project design. Good governance will be encouraged through working with Local Public Authorities and the formation of local livestock associations. However, women are under-represented in leadership positions in village councils (c 26.% positions occupied by women in 2007), district councils (c.13%of positions occupied by women in 2007) and Mayors (18% were women in 2007). The majority of activities target men and women. However livestock production and forestry appear to be dominated by men so the Project needs to actively encourage women to participate to ensure their needs, views and aspirations are incorporated into management plans. Overall conclusion - Quality of design Overall conclusion - Relevance and quality of design B B Page 4 of 18 3. EFFICIENCY A measure of how economically (in terms of quality, quantity and time) resources/inputs are converted to outputs. 3.1 How well is the availability and use of inputs and resources managed? A B C D Originally, UNDP Moldova was not included in the Pilots Project as it was not seen to be ecologically relevant to it. However in the latter half of 2012, when it was decided that the Clima East Policy and Clima East Pilot Projects should be combined, the UNDP Regional Technical Coordinator was asked by the EU Task Manager to develop a proposal for Moldova, so that all of the ENPI countries would be involved in both the Clima East Policy and the Clima East Pilots Projects. In December 2012, UNDP Moldova b. To what degree are inputs available was approached by UNDP Regional Technical Coordinator (RTC), Bratislava and asked to at planned costs (or lower)? develop a project proposal. The project was finalised through a local project appraisal meeting organised by UNDP in March 2013. 2013 the EC-UNDP agreement was amended c. Are staffing arrangements proving adequate? to include the Moldova agreement. Two addenda were made to the EC-UNDP agreement in May 2013 new versions of 1)Annex I: Description of the Action was d. Are inputs monitored regularly, and developed which included a 4th component entitled 'Sustainable management of by whom, to encourage cost-effective pastures and community forests in Moldova's first National Park Orhei to demonstrate implementation of activities? climate change mitigation and adaptation benefits and dividends for local communities' and 2)Annex III Budget for the Action was drawn up including a new budget line for the e. Are operation resources managed 4th component of 500 000 Euro. Moldovan government counter signed the agreement well and in a transparent and in July 2013. To date, inputs and resources to implement activities appear to be accountable manner? provided/available on time and at planned costs. Staffing arrangements appear f. Is the current budget break-down excellent. Project staff include a Project Manager, currently part-time, but will become conducive to the implementation of the full-time from December 2013 and a Project Assistant (half-time). This team has good operation? local networks and has built up good rapport with local people. The Project is well supported by the UNDP Portfolio Manager in Moldolva, who has excellent knowledge g. Are all contractual procedures clearly and contacts relating to climate change, the RTC who provides excellent technical understood and do they facilitate the backstopping support and the Regional Coordinator, who provides day to day project implementation of the operation? coordination. Inputs are monitored by the UNDP Country Office supported by the UNDP Regional Team and through the UNDP system which encourages the cost-effective implementation of activities. Resources appear to be managed in a transparent and accountable manner. The current budget is conducive to the implementation of the operation. Contractual procedures appear clearlyAunderstood quite D B and although C 3.2 How well are the activities implemented? lengthy, they facilitate the implementation of the operation. a. To what extent are activities So far, activities appear to be implemented as planned and there have been few delays. implemented as planned/scheduled? If There has been a slight delay in the tendering process for the pasture inventory there are delays, have the reasons been contract. A tender was announced in August 2013 with a deadline on 2/9/13. Although identified and remedial action been there were lots of inquiries about the tender not one institution submitted a tender. So taken to get the operation back on the Project Manager will need to draw up another tender for the pasture inventory. track? Funds that have been spent to date have been spent in line with the implementation of activities, including costs of attending the Clima East Package Launch in July 2013, b. Are funds spent in line with the expenditure on the inception workshop in September 2013. The Project's Monitoring implementation of activities? If not, framework is described in the Project Document. Project staff will report quarterly as well why? as annually to the Project Board. An Annual Project Review will be prepared and periodic c. Is there a need to change any of the monitoring through site visits will be carried out by the UNDP Country Office and the planned activities? If so, how well have UNDP Regional Coordination Unit. The Project has made a good start on coordinating these changes been managed? with similar interventions for synergy and in order to avoid overlap, by identifying past and existing relevant projects. Donor funded projects with a direct or indirect link to the d. How well are activities monitored? Is Project are listed in the Project Document. The Project is designed to build on the UNDPmonitoring used to take corrective implemented GEF-funded project "Improving coverage and management effectiveness action? of the Protected Area System in Moldova" and to create synergies with other projects such as the Moldova Energy and Biomass Project funded by UNDP and the Agriculture e. How well does the operation coordinate with other, similar Competiveness Project funded by the World Bank. Specific attention will be paid to interventions (if any) for synergy and in creating synergies with the Food and Agricultural Organisation's (FAO) planned project order to avoid overlaps? entitled "Promotion of Disaster Risk Reduction in Agriculture for small farmers in Moldova". UNDP is involved in the sector coordination council in Environment, Water f. Is a logframe (or an equivalent tool) and Sanitation. The Portfolio Manager from UNDP Moldova aims to propose a subgroup actively used as management tool? If within this on climate change. A workplan for the Project is provided in the Clima East not, why? Pilots Regional Inception report, however this is not very detailed. Project Management g. Is a work plan/implementation needs to draw up a more detailed workplan that can be actively used by project schedule available and actively used by management. project management? a. To what degree are inputs and resources provided/available on time from all parties involved to implement activities? Page 5 of 18 3.3 How well are the outputs achieved? a. Are the outputs delivered as planned and in a coherent manner e.g. logical sequence? b. What is the quality of the outputs? Are they likely to lead to the intended outcomes? c. Have the outputs been produced/ delivered in a cost-efficient manner? d. Are the outputs accessible to the target group? A B C D To date there have been few Project outputs, however those that have been delivered have been done in a coherent, cost efficient manner. The ROM Monitor attended the Project's Inception workshop. The workshop was well organised and well-attended. Some presentations were quite lengthy and technical. Whilst the Presentation on the Project was quite rushed, as the workshop started late (this was not the Project's fault). Discussion on the work plan and the roles and responsibilities different stakeholders was limited. There was little opportunity for people to ask questions and discuss the Project. The workshop did not appear to do much to build local people's ownership of the Project. However, the field trip in the afternoon provided an opportunity for participants to see potential pilot sites and for local participants to exchange views and hold discussions with technical experts. e. Are they correctly reflected through indicators? Page 6 of 18 3.4. How well are the Partners involved and contributing? A B C D A Project Board will be formed, relevant institutions have been asked to nominate individuals and all nominated members were invited to the Project's Inception Workshop in September 2013. Project Board members include representatives of Ministry of Environment, Ministry of Agriculture and Food Industry, Agency for Land Relations and Cadastre, UNDP Moldova, Moldsilva, Raional Council Orhei, Representative from local b. Is there good communication between communities (Association of Mayors from Orhei, National Academy of Science or NGO, National Focal Point for Clima East Pilots/Policy Project (observer), EU Del (Observer). It is partner government, EU, project proposed that the Board's first meeting will be held about two weeks after the Inception management and other stakeholders? Workshop. The Project Board will evaluate results of evaluation panel that will select the c. If necessary, are specific pilot sites for pasture restoration and community forestry. Ministry of Environment is arrangements (e.g. Memoranda of currently understaffed and lacks capacity so communications with that Ministry is Understanding, etc.) in place to promote currently weak. The Ministry of Environment expressed some discontent at the Clima active stakeholder involvement? East launch in July and subsequently about the fact that the budget for the Moldovan Clima East Pilots Project is half that of other Partner Countries. This has somewhat dampened relations between the Ministry of Environment and UNDP. However Moldsilva currently has good capacity and the Project has a good working relations with this organisation. To date, there appears to be only limited communication between 'sister' pilot projects. Project efficiency is likely to be improved through improving communications and information exchange between 'sister' pilot projects, especially Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan Pilot Project, that are involved in pasture management and/or community forestry initiatives. There was a Clima East Policy Project Scoping mission in May 2013 with staff from HTSPE UK and the Key Expert 4 (KE4), Regional Coordinator for the Caucauses and Moldova, but not the Team Leader. Fruitful discussions with UNDP Pilot Project staff were held and alot of overlaps were identified. It was concluded that both Projects should collaborate closely. However, since May 2013 to date, there has been no communication between KE4 and the UNDP Pilot Project staff in Moldova. The KE4 was not invited and did not attend the Pilot Project Inception workshop. Although there are currently no formal links between the Clima East Pilot and Clima East Policy Projects, it is proposed that a coordination mechanism will be established between the two projects with quarterly exchange of information between the Pilot Project Regional Coordinator and the policy project. There is potential for the Policy Project to help promote Pilot Policy recommendations on policy, legal and normative regulations on the use of pastures and grazing revenues. Some of the critical points that are likely to be addressed are: Policy and administrative frameworks governing use of communal land; Management of communal pasture land so as to improve productivity, including policy on grazing seasons and actions to improve the carrying capacity of pastureland. Communication between partner government, EU, project management and other stakeholders is good. UNDP, with its long term presence in Moldova, has built up a strong, working relationships between the partner government. A representative from the EU Del was invited to the Project Inception workshop in September 2013. a. Do the inter-institutional structures (e.g. steering committee, monitoring and reporting system, etc.) facilitate efficient implementation? Note: a = very good; b = good; c = problems; d = serious deficiencies. Overall conclusion - Efficiency B Page 7 of 18 4. EFFECTIVENESS The extent to which the intervention's objectives (on outcome and project purpose level) are, or are expected to be, achieved. 4.1. How well is the operation achieving its expected outcomes? a. Have the expected outcomes been achieved to date? b. What is the quality of the outcomes? c. How do target groups assess their usefulness? d. Do all target groups (and everybody in the target group) benefit from the operation as expected? e. Are there any factors which prevent target groups from benefitting? A B C D The Project's Purpose is to demonstrate a natural resource management model in the pastures and forests of Orhei National Park and its buffer zone which increases ecosystems' capacity to sequester carbon under pending climate risks, while at the same time retaining biodiversity and economic values. The Project has is in its first year of implementation, so none of the expected outcomes have been achieved to date. Key factors that may prevent some target group communities from benefiting from the Project are the fact that communities: 1) will be responsible for carrying out all the activities for pasture restoration, monitoring and reporting to the Project Management Team, in accordance with the grant agreements. 2) Local communities are expected to contribute to pasture's rehabilitation with financial means (if available) or in the form of services with at least 15% from the estimated costs. On the one hand, these factors may build local ownership. On the other hand, they may prevent smaller, less wealthy communities, that do not have sufficient human resources to carry out Project activities, from participating in the Project. As already explained pasture users pay fees to Local Public Authorities (LPAs) for the use of communal pastures, however currently little of this money is fed back into pasture management, so it is unclear whether LPAs will be prepared to invest in such schemes. It is important to note that relatively poor communities, in general, tend to be more vulnerable to adverse climate impacts, have fewer resources with which to adapt and to recover losses caused by extreme weather events and are, in general, more dependent upon the natural environment for livelihoods. Page 8 of 18 4.2. As presently implemented, what is the likelihood that the project purpose will be achieved? a. To what extent has the project purpose been achieved so far? Is this measurable through the indicators or is there other evidence for this? A B C The Project is only just starting so the Project Purpose has not been achieved to any extent so far and progress is not yet measurable through indicators. However, the Project looks set to achieve its purpose. There are currently no changing external conditions which the Project has had to adopt to or unexpected negative or positive effects on the target group. b. Given the achievement and quality of outcomes so far, what can be said about the likelihood of achieving the project purpose within the timeline of the operation? c. To what extent has the operation adapted to changing external conditions (risks and assumptions) in order to ensure the achievement of the outcomes and the project purpose? d. Are there any unexpected, negative effects on the target group which have occurred or are likely to occur due to the operation? Did project management take remedial action against these? e. Are there any unexpected positive effects on the target group which have occurred or are likely to occur? Note: a = very good; b = good; c = problems; d = serious deficiencies. D Overall conclusion - Effectiveness B Page 9 of 18 5. IMPACT TO DATE Likelihood of positive and negative, medium to long-term effects of an intervention, both direct and indirect, intended and unintended. 5.1. What are the operation’s direct impact prospects (i.e. contribution at the level of overall objective)? a. Are there any changes on the level of the Overall Objective which can be observed (through indicators) so far? Can the operation be assessed as having contributed to these changes? b. Given the progress so far, what direct impacts appear likely by the end of the operation? c. Are any external factors likely to jeopardize the operation’s direct impact? d. Does the operation contribute to the development or improvement of related policies? A B C D To date, no changes on the level of the Overall Objective can be observed so far. However, the Project appears to be making good progress so direct impacts, including the development and replication of sustainable pasture and community models which increase the capacity to sequester and monitor carbon while at the same time retaining biodiversity and economic values for local communities, appear likely by the end of operation. External factors that could potentially jeopardize the operation are: 1) lack of progress on the decentralization reform process; 2) lack of progress on developing policy frameworks for communal pasture and community forest management that facilitate sustainable and participatory management; 3) lack of policy support for smallholder livestock production; 4) continuing rural out-migration 5) the introduction of policies that encourage land privatisation and intensive, large scale livestock production. d. Although not documented in Project reports to date, the Project aims to work with the Clima East Policy Project and the forthcoming FAO Project to engage in policy debates relating to sustainable community forestry and pasture management. 5.2 To what extent does/will the operation have any indirect (positive/ negative) impact? A B C D There are currently no unplanned positive impacts on final beneficiaries. An unexpected indirect negative effect on local herders may occur in degraded areas to be afforested. These degraded areas may have been traditionally used by local herders, however they may be prevented from using these areas because sheep and goats are prohibited from b. Are there any observable or expected grazing inside forests. Also, forests are traditionally used for grazing by local herders in spill-over effects? Are there any indications that elements/aspects of the times of drought. However, herders may be prevented from herding in newly restored or recently afforested areas in such times. This could bring about an unexpected negative operation will be rolled out to or taken impact, limiting local herders' abilities to adapt to drought conditions. Due up by other parties? consideration needs to be taken by the Project on such issues so negative impacts can c. What are the negative consequences, be avoided. This possible negative effect may be offset by the pasture improvement if any, of the operation on the target component of the Project which should enable stocking rates on existing pastures to be group and others? Did the operation increased once pastures have been improved. However pastures and forests are unlikely take timely measures to mitigate to be in contiguous areas. The likely environmental, social and economic long term negative impact? effects of the Project are positive. If successful, the Project should create sustainable community pastures and forests, that are environmentally sound, increase resilience in d. What are the likely environmental, the face of climate change, encourage local cooperation and good governance, improve social, cultural, gender and economic local income generating opportunities and stem rural out-migration. Donor coherence, long term effects? complementarity and coordination is set to improve the potential impact of the e. Do donor coherence, complementarity operation. The Project is developing good relations with FAO and its new Project and coordination encourage synergies "Promotion of Disaster Risk Reduction in Agriculture for small farmers in Moldova". One and/or improve the potential impact of of the key components of this proposed project is "Improvement in the management of the operation? pastures to reduce the impact of droughts on the livestock sector". The FAO project has not been approved by the government yet. However there are plans for the two Projects to work closely together. The Project has been sharing documents with FAO staff, including Terms of Reference for consultants and progress reports. a. Is there any unplanned positive impact on the final beneficiaries? Note: a = very good; b = good; c = problems; d = serious deficiencies. Overall conclusion - Impact to date B Page 10 of 18 6. SUSTAINABILITY TO DATE Likelihood of the continuation of benefits of an intervention after its completion. 6.1 What is the financial/economic viability of the continuation of benefits after the end of the operation? a. Is there a viable financial sustainability plan in place and is it being implemented? i.e. if the benefits have to be supported after the operation’s end, will funds be available? If so, by whom? By the partner government/project authority? Or is continued donor support required? If so, is it likely to be available? b. If there are costs for continued access to the benefits, are target groups in a position to assume their share after the completion of the operation? A B C D There is no sustainability plan in place as yet and it is recommended that the Project Team starts to develop this in collaboration with key stakeholders, especially local people and LPAs as soon as possible. Moldova is a relatively poor, developing country, with considerable political uncertainties at present. The key stakeholder Ministry is planned to undergo structural changes but is currently understaffed and underfunded. The country is undergoing a process of decentralisation. However, it is unclear whether LPAs, which are currently underfunded, will benefit from better funding in the future. So the sustainability plan needs to take these issues into account. It is not clear whether target groups involved in carbon monitoring will be able to maintain the system after the Project ends. c. Are there any external factors that might jeopardize the sustainability of benefits, and if so, have appropriate measures been taken to forestall this? d. Are the target groups and/or relevant authorities/institutions able to afford the maintenance or replacement of the technologies/services/outputs introduced by the operation? e. Is the financial/economic dimension of the phasing out strategy being adequately addressed and implemented as far as necessary to date? 6.2. What is the level of ownership of the operation by the target group and relevant stakeholders? a. Is an exit strategy integrated in the design and has the implementation been managed accordingly? b. Is there any evidence of further commitment of the relevant stakeholders? c. Is operation implementation demanddriven or is there simply passive buy-in from target groups? d. Do the target groups plan to continue assuming their role in ensuring continued outputs and outcomes? If so, are they likely to materialize? e. To what extent have they been actively involved in the implementation and steering process? f. How far is the operation embedded in the local structures of the target group (possibly different from institutional structures)? A B C D An exit strategy is integrated into the design of the Project as it is proposed that LPAs and local communities will continue to manage and monitor improved communal pastures and community forests with support from the Ministry of Environment and Moldsilva. However, the evidence on commitment to maintaining communal pastures and community forests controlled by LPAs in a healthy state is scanty. Currently, most pasture lands that are used communally, are not managed effectively by LPAs. Fees are paid by livestock owners to LPAs for using the pastures, however income from these fees is not usually reinvested in managing the pastures. So one of the big problems with the livestock sector in Moldova is the poor investment in pastures, as the fees that are usually paid are not reinvested in improving the land. This does not bode well for the future. Local Public Authorities must be committed to investing fees paid by pasture users and actively managing communal pasture land if the Project is to succeed. The Project must work with Local Public Authorities to ensure that this happens. It is also important that the Project does not underestimate the need for of capacity building of local communities and LPAs and the time and effort that needs to be put into this to ensure pasture management plans continue to be used to maintain pastures in a healthy state. It is not clear whether or how local people will be involved in pilot plot selection. It is important that they are, to facilitate local project ownership and sustainability. LPA are expected to delegate responsible staff to manage the planted sites and establish cattle breeder associations, however it is uncertain whether they will have sufficient capacity, given limited staff and budgets. Currently there appears to be a " command and control" attitude of some agencies. For example some Moldsilva staff appear to have the view that they know which tree species should be planted in community forests and that local people don't need to be consulted on this. They will be involved carrying out planting activities but not in decision-making. This mindset needs to be changed to develop local ownership and to ensure sustainability, Page 11 of 18 6.3. To what degree does the policy environment support the operation? a. Is the national, local, sector and budgetary policy environment an enabling factor for the continuation of benefits? What specific support is being provided? b. Do changes in policies and priorities affect the potential sustainability of the benefits? If applicable, has the operation adapted to ensure long-term support? A B C D Currently there is very limited policy, legal and normative regulations on community forests and the use of pastures and grazing revenues. Some of the critical points that need to be addressed are: 1) Policy and administrative frameworks governing use of communal land; 2)Management of communal pasture land so as to improve productivity, including policy on grazing seasons and actions to improve the carrying capacity of pastureland. It is hoped that the Project and the forthcoming FAO Project will develop recommendations on the policy and administrative frameworks and these will promote the sustainability of benefits. c. If relevant, is any public and private sector policy support likely to continue after the operation has ended? 6.4. To what extent does the operation contribute to partners' capacity development? a. Does the operation contribute to the development of partner's individual and organizational capacities for sustainable delivery of outputs and outcomes? b. How far is the operation embedded in institutional structures that are likely to function beyond the life of the operation? c. Will an adequate level of qualified human and institutional resources be available in the future in order to continue delivering the operation's stream of benefits? Note: a = very good; b = good; c = problems; d = serious deficiencies. A B C D The Project plans to implement two workshops to disseminate Project experiences at the national, regional and local level. A training programme in sustainable grassland and forest management will be developed and implemented for local communities, national park staff to ensure sustainability. Two training sessions will be organised by the project dedicated to integrated management of community forests and pastures for local authorities, farmers, leaders of farmers' association and other key groups. Some trainees from outside the national park area will be involved. This should enable attendees to replicate project activities at local, national and regional levels. The project will also support the development and dissemination of a set of education materials as well as special publications intended for project beneficiaries and specialist involved in project implementation. Suggested publications include: Operational Manual " Management practices of community forests", Guidebook for "sustainable pasture and restoration management". The Project is not yet embedded in institutional structures that are likely to function beyond its life, because the Project is at a very early stage. However, the training programme, "on the job" capacity building and coordination with existing institutions and relevant Projects at the local, regional and national levels should help to ensure that the operation's steam of benefits are continued. Overall conclusion - Sustainability to date C Page 12 of 18 7. HORIZONTAL ISSUES 7.1 Quality Systems, Monitoring and Evaluation a) Were the QSG comments taken into consideration and included in the final design and applied during implementation? Yes No N/A b) Are the issues identified by ROM regarding design the same as those addressed in the QSG checklist? Yes No N/A c) Have previous evaluations or reviews (such as ROM, reviews by the EU operational manager) led to changes in the operation? Yes No N/A d) Is the available monitoring and reporting information on the operation's progress comprehensive and reliable in order to ensure the possibility to evaluate results and learn lessons? Yes No N/A Please comment on any of the questions / aspects above, qualitative data is very valuable: A reasonably robust monitoring system is in place which should allow for the possibility to evaluate results and learn lessons. However as the Project is still at a very early stage there is little monitoring and reporting information available to judge whether actual information produced is comprehensive and/or reliable. 7.2 Review of Technical Cooperation/Capacity Development Quality Criteria Adaptation to the context and existing capacity a ) Are there critical constraints in the context which are likely to prevent the CD support from achieving its objectives? Yes No N/A Yes No N/A c) Do local partners effectively lead in the planning of CD support beyond formal endorsement? Yes No N/A d) Do local partners provide the inputs (human or physical) that would be required to enable the CD support to be effective? Yes No N/A b) Is the CD support adequate vis-à-vis the present capacity of the local partner? Demand driven TC/CD and ownership Page 13 of 18 Result oriented TC/CD e) Are the outputs or outcomes of the CD support clearly specified and still relevant (or adjusted to changes of context)? Yes No N/A f) Are they regularly monitored and/or assessed (e.g. through a joint performance dialogue or an annual reporting)? Yes No N/A g) Is the CD support taking into account CD interventions from other donors in the same sector? Yes No N/A h) Is there a donor coordination mechanism led by local partners and encompassing CD support? Yes No N/A i) Is CD support embedded in the broad institutional context of the local partners and have unnecessary parallel mechanisms been avoided? Yes No N/A j) Do contracted experts, project managers and NGO staff take instructions from the partner and not the EC? (while some form of reporting to the EC can still take place) Yes No N/A Harmonisation of TC/CD Project Implementation Arrangement Please comment on any of the questions / aspects above, qualitative data is very valuable: The Project Document makes little specific reference to capacity development. Although, as pointed out above, capacity development for local communities and LPAs will be essential for the long term success of the Project. It is important that the Project does not underestimate the time and effort that will be required to ensure that local people and LPAs are equipped with the relevant skills to manage communal pastures and forests. 7.3. EC Visibility Does the operation contribute to promoting EC visibility (e.g. does it comply with the EC Guidelines)? Yes No N/A Please comment on any of the questions / aspects above, qualitative data is very valuable: EC visibility has, to date, been poor. There was no EU logo on: 1) Project office door; 2) the Inception Workshop Folder given out to participants or 3) on the Project Document. However, the Regional Coordinator has provided National Pilot Project staff advice on EU visibility so this should not be an issue from now on. The advice was given too late for National Pilot Project staff to incorporate the logo on Inception Workshop materials. Page 14 of 18 8. CROSS-CUTTING ISSUES 8.1. Have practical and strategic gender interests been adequately considered in the operation's strategy? Yes No N/A If so, how and to what effect? If not, why not? If n/a, explain. Please consider the following aspects of gender mainstreaming: The operation has not been planned on the basis of a gender-differentiated beneficiaries' analysis. While both male and females are both potential project beneficiaries,livestock production and forestry activities appear to be dominated by men. However, a gender sensitive approach could lead to an improved impact of the operation as women could potentially benefit from increased availability of reasonably a. Has the operation been planned on priced fuel wood, which may reduce their workload, freeing up their time to carry out the basis of a gender-differentiated more profitable activities as well as non timber forest products (e.g. mushrooms) for beneficiaries’ analysis? subsistence and income generation. This project is marked as G0 - Gender equality is not b. To what extent will / could the gender targeted as an overall objective sensitive approach lead to an improved impact of the operation? c. What is the likeliness of increased gender equality beyond the operation's end? d. According to the OECD Gender Policy Marker how would you classify this operation? 8.2. Is the operation respecting environmental needs? Yes No N/A On the whole, the Project is respecting environmental needs. Two key project activities If so, how and to what effect? If not, why are the development of sustainably managed pastures and community forests, both not? If n/a, explain. Please consider the encourage local people to practice low cost, sustainable and environmentally friendly following aspects of mainstreaming natural resource management methods. In addition, once established these pastures and environmental aspects: a. Have environmental constraints and opportunities been considered adequately in the operation's design? b. Are good environmental practices followed during implementation (in relation to use of water and energy and materials, production of wastes, etc.)? Does the operation respect traditional, successful environmental practices? community forests should play an important role as a carbon sink and so help reduce green house gas emissions. The Project should develop local, regional and national capacity to deal with unpredictable climate, in terms of drought and rainfall, by encouraging people to grow drought tolerant pasture and tree species and practice soil and water conservation techniques. The Project aims to demonstrate the feasibility of ecosystem-based approaches to climate change. An essential ethos of this approach is to acknowledge and respect local successful environmental practices, so the Project should "practice what it preaches". c. What capacities exist (within the operation, among partners and the operation's context) to deal with critical risks that could affect the operation's effectiveness such as climate risks or risks of natural disasters (in the case of operations in sensitive geographical areas / natural disasters hotspots)? d. Has environmental damage been caused or likely to be caused by the operation? What kind of environmental impact mitigation measures have been taken? d. Is the achievement of project results and objectives likely to generate increased pressure on fragile ecosystems (natural forests, wetlands, coral reefs, mangroves) and scarce natural resources (e.g. surface and groundwater, timber, soil)? Page 15 of 18 8.3. Has (good) governance been mainstreamed in the operation? If so, how? If not, why not? If n/a, explain. Please consider the following aspects of governance: Yes No N/A Good governance has been mainstreamed in the Project. It aims to target poor rural communities and encourage local management of natural resources. The Project appears to have good, transparent, financial management and monitoring and evaluation systems in place. a. Does it take into consideration the differential impact of poverty on disadvantaged groups? b. Is the operation designed in such a way that it takes into account potential conflict? c. Is regular, transparent, financial reporting built into the operation? Are its results widely circulated and understandable? d. Are there effective anti-corruption monitoring tools in place? 8.4 Does the operation actively contribute to the promotion of Human Rights? If so, how? If not, why not? If n/a, explain. a. Has there been an analysis of “winners and losers” regarding possible “discrimination” of target groups by the operation? Yes No N/A There appear to be no clear structures in place to ensure that poor households are guaranteed access to benefits from community forest or communal pastures. Efforts need to be made by the Project management to work with LPAs and local people to develop clear structures to ensure that poor households are guaranteed access to benefits from Project interventions. b. Will the operation help to ensure respect for any relevant human rights and not cause them to be reduced in any way? c. Do any interested parties and observers raise HR concerns? Page 16 of 18 9. LIST OF PERSONS INTERVIEWED/DOCUMENTS ANALYSED Name / Position Institution / other Alexandru Rotaru/Project Manager UNDP Clima East Pilots Project Moldova Nadja Vetters/Portfolio Manager UNDP Moldova Dumitru Galupa/Director Forest Research Management Institute (ICAS) Mr Lazu/Geobotanics Department Researcher Botanical Garden, Chisinau Ion Nasalciuc/Chief of Agricultural Division of Raion Orhei Raion Orhei Administration Ion Talmaci/Technical Director Forest Research Management Institute (ICAS) Eugen Chiabur/Programme Manager FAO Programme email: Eugen.Chiabur@fao.org Mr Tudor Botnari/Deputy Director Forestry Agency "Moldsilva" +373 22 277959 Ms Ala Rotaru/Convention of Biodiversity Focal Point Ministry of Environment Ms Maria Nagornii/Climate East Pilots & Policy Focal Point Ministry of Environment Mr Valerian Scutelnic/Deputy President of Raion Orhei Raion Orhei Administration Mr Viorel Petic/Director of Forest Enterprise Orhei Forestry Agency "Moldsilva", Orhei Mr Petru Dogocher/President of Mayors Association Orhei Mr Valeriu Pasa/Director Natural-Cultural Reserve "Old Orhei" Mr Henno Putnik/Project Manager EU Del, Chisinau email: Henno.PUTNIK@eeas.europa.eu Narine Sahakyan/Deputy Resident Representative UNDP, Moldova email: narine.sahakyan@undp.org Mr Lazar Chirica/Deputy Minister Ministry of Environment email: chirica@mediu.gov.md Mr Vesile Ciobanu/Project Coordinator Pro Rural Invest (NGO) Olga ??/Project Assistant UNDP Clima East Pilots Project Moldova Nicolae Afteni, Agronomic Engineer Auxillary Department Forestry Agency "Moldsilva", Orhei Documents Analysed Clima East: Supporting Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation in Neighbourhood East and Russia (Clima East Pilots Project) Inception Report May 2013 EU Contribution Agreement with an International Organisation ENPI/2012/303-093 Annex 1 Description of the Action Republic of Moldova. No date. Moldova 2020 National Development Strategy ENPI. Republic of Moldova Country Strategy Paper 2007-2013 Republic of Moldova. 2010. The Fourth National Report on Biological Diversity Development Ministry of Environment World Bank. 2007. Rural Productivity in Moldova - Managing Natural Vulnerability World Bank. 2013. World Bank Group - Moldova Partnership. Country Program Snapshot Republic of Moldova Min. of Agric. 2012. Comprehensive assessment to evaluate the impact of the 2012 drought in Moldova UNDP. 2009. National Human Development Report Climate Change and Moldova Socio-economic and impact policy options for adaptation FAO. 2012. Promotion of Disaster Risk Reduction in Agriculture for small farmers in Moldova UNDP 2013. Project Document Sustainable Management of Pastures & Community forests in Moldova's first National Park Orhei to demonstrate climate change mitigation & adaptation benefits & dividends for local communities Page 17 of 18 OVERVIEW OF SUB-CRITERIA GRADES Sub-criteria 1.1 Relevance for target groups 1.2 Relevance for partner 1.3 Relevance for EU 2.1 Intervention logic Grade A A A B 2.2 Partners and Design 2.3 Cross-cutting issues 3.1 Inputs 3.2 Activities 3.3 Outputs 3.4 Partners and Implementation 4.1 Outcomes 4.2 Project Purpose 5.1 Direct impact 5.2 Indirect impact 6.1 Financial sustainability 6.2 Ownership 6.3 Policy support 6.4 Capacity Development 7.1 a) QSG comments 7.1 b) QSG and ROM on design 7.1 c) Evaluations and reviews 7.1 d) Progress information 7.2 a) TC/CD - constraints 7.2 b) TC/CD – capacity 7.2 c) TC/CD – partner lead 7.2 d) TC/CD – partner input 7.2 e) TC/CD – specified results 7.2 f) TC/CD – monitoring 7.2 g) TC/CD – other donors' intervention 7.2 h) TC/CD - donor coordination 7.2 i) TC/CD - embedded 7.2 j) TC/CD - staff instructions 7.3 EC visibility 8.1 Gender 8.2 Environment B B B B B B B B B B C C C B N/A N/A N/A Yes No Yes No Yes No No Yes Yes Yes Yes No No Yes 8.3 Good Governance 8.4 Human rights Yes Yes Page 18 of 18