The analysis of Households’ wealth with and beyond national accounts

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The analysis of Households’ wealth
with and beyond national accounts
WPFS, 13 October 2008, OECD, Paris
Denis Marionnet, Banque de France
Introduction (1/3)
The most common use of national accounts to analyse HHs’ wealth
consists in combining:
 data from financial accounts:




outstanding amounts
financial transactions
revaluation flows (when available)
and/or data from total wealth accounts:


land
housing

These data allows analysing:

the evolution in time of the structure of total portfolio or financial
portfolio (stocks),
 financial transactions and arbitrages between financial instruments,
 growth rates of different assets, indices on outstandings,…
 international comparisons,…
With various tables and graphs

The analysis of households' wealth with and beyond national accounts, OECD,WPFS 13 October 2008
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Introduction (2/)

Examples taken from the Banque de France Bulletin Digest No 148, April
2006:

http://www.banque-france.fr/gb/publications/telechar/bulletin/148etud1.pdf
The analysis of households' wealth with and beyond national accounts, OECD,WPFS 13 October 2008
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Introduction (2/2)

Examples taken from the ECB Monthly Bulletin, November 2007

http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/other/pp75-87_mb200711en.pdf
The analysis of households' wealth with and beyond national accounts, OECD,WPFS 13 October 2008
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Overview
Brief presentation of 4 papers that propose ways to
supplement the traditional analysis of HHs’ wealth:

1. Enhancing the analysis by combining micro data from
Wealth Surveys with national accounts


2. Enhancing the analysis by making financial
intermediation transparent



“The composition of household wealth between 1997 and 2003”, P. Girardot
and D. Marionnet, Quarterly Selection of Articles of the Banque de France, n°12,
Summer 2008
“La destination finale de l’épargne des ménages”, A. Rincon, Bulletin de la Banque
de France, n°167, November 2007
“The final financial investment of French households”, D. Marionnet, Irving Fisher
Committee Bulletin, n°25, Bank for International Settlements, March 2007
3. Enhancing the analysis by taking into account implicit
social security and pension wealth in HHs’ assets

“Implicit social security and pension wealth in households’ assets in the US and
France”, D. Durant and M. Reinsdorf, paper presented at the International
Association for Research in Income and Wealth, August 2008
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1. National accounts data combined with Wealth Surveys
The idea was to combine in the same article :

National financial and non-financial accounts data
drawn up by INSEE and the Banque de France


With a particular look at valuation effects on both real estate
and financial assets
Households’ Wealth Surveys data conducted by
French NSI, INSEE, in 1998 and 2004, adjusted
against these macroeconomic data

This Survey looks at the changes in the distribution of household wealth
(real-estate, financial and professional) and the holding rates of the various
assets. It also includes very detailed information on the factors underlying
households’ investment behaviour: family and professional biographies,
inheritance and donations, income and financial position, motives for holding/
not holding a certain type of asset.
The article: “The composition of household wealth between 1997 and 2003”, P. Girardot and
D. Marionnet, Quarterly Selection of Articles of the Banque de France, n°12, Summer
2008 (http://www.banque-france.fr/gb/publications/telechar/bulletin/qsa/qsa12etud_6.pdf)
The analysis of households' wealth with and beyond national accounts, OECD,WPFS 13 October 2008
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1. National accounts data combined with Wealth Surveys
Methodological aspects:

In order to bring the scope of the financial accounts in line with
that of the INSEE Wealth Survey, some assets hardly held by
households were not included in the analysis.

In addition, for comparison purposes, financial assets were
grouped together at the macroeconomic level in a different
manner than in the usual presentation of financial
accounts.

Because the survey data tend to underestimate outstanding
amounts relative to national accounting data, the results
presented in this article are based on the amounts
adjusted against wealth outstanding amounts in the
national accounts .
The analysis of households' wealth with and beyond national accounts, OECD,WPFS 13 October 2008
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1. National accounts data combined with Wealth Surveys

Between 1997 and 2003, gross
household wealth increased rapidly
(average annual increase of 8.6% compared to
4.1% for their gross disposable income)



Mainly as a result of a boom in realestate prices
Real estate accounted for 58% of
households’ private wealth (excl.
professional wealth) in 1997,
compared with 66% in 2003.
Contributions to the increase of total
wealth:

rise in real estate assets : 78%



of which increase in the value of
housing and land : 61%
of which increase in investment flows:
17%
increase in households’ financial assets:
22%


of which cumulated annual investment
flows: 21%)
of which increase in the value of
financial assets: 1%
The analysis of households' wealth with and beyond national accounts, OECD,WPFS 13 October 2008
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1. National accounts data combined with Wealth Surveys

Illustration
The analysis of households' wealth with and beyond national accounts, OECD,WPFS 13 October 2008
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1. National accounts data combined with Wealth Surveys
Wealth inequalities increased between 1997 and 2003:
The Gini index (concentration indicator calculated on the basis of private wealth) rose from 0.614 in 1997
to 0.629 in 2003.


Thus, the private assets
held by the 10% least
wealthy households
amounted to less than
EUR 2,110 in 2003,
compared with EUR 1,930
in 1997, whereas those
held by the 10% wealthiest
households stood at over
EUR 450,060 in 2003, as
against EUR 296,400 in
1997.
Homeowners posted a
very significant rise in their
gross private wealth, while
on average households
holding only financial
assets have benefited
less.
The analysis of households' wealth with and beyond national accounts, OECD,WPFS 13 October 2008
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1. National accounts data combined with Wealth Surveys

Illustration:
detailed tables
presenting HHs’
total, real estate
or financial
wealth broken
down according
to households’
characteristics
The analysis of households' wealth with and beyond national accounts, OECD,WPFS 13 October 2008
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1. National accounts data combined with Wealth Surveys

%
The analysis of households' wealth with and beyond national accounts, OECD,WPFS 13 October 2008
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1. National accounts data combined with Wealth Surveys

Five types of more or less diversified financial portfolios drawn up using a hierarchical
ascending classification method:
The analysis of households' wealth with and beyond national accounts, OECD,WPFS 13 October 2008
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1. National accounts data combined with Wealth Surveys

This typology can be linked to the structure of private wealth by decile as
households are more likely to diversify their portfolio when their personal
environment is favourable: stable family situation, high income, no risk of
unemployment.
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1. National accounts data combined with Wealth Surveys
Risky financial assets: higher holding rates in 2003 than in 1997

HHs’ financial savings increasingly channelled into risky investments: the share of their
risky assets rose from 14.0% in 1997 to 19.2% in 2003, after having peaked at 23.8% in
2000.

In a context characterised by large fluctuations in financial market prices, it is useful to
define the characteristics of holders of risky financial assets and to attempt to explain
their behaviour using an “all other things being equal” analysis.

The qualitative model used measures the impact of each household characteristic (age,
socio-occupational category, type of household, whether the parents were holders of
risky assets, income, etc.) on the probability of holding a risky financial asset.


What is measured is the gap between the probability of holding a risky financial asset in the reference
situation and in the situation under review. The reference situation is that of households between 40 and
49, in an intermediate-grade occupation in the public sector, with two children and in the 5th decile of
private wealth and disposable income.
Main findings:

The head of the typical household holding risky assets has a high income and
considerable wealth. His parents also held risky assets; he has no children.

Similar considerations seem to prevail among managers: in 2003, they hold risky
assets slightly more often than the other social categories.

In general, households’ investment behaviour is carried over from one generation to
the next.

Overall, households’ wealth, level of income and degree of information on financial
investments are key determinants of their propensity to hold risky assets.
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2. Making financial intermediation transparent



As the proportion of intermediated instruments in HHs’ financial
wealth increases in many countries, the interest in X-raying their
financial investment gets increasingly relevant.
Using a method that makes financial intermediation transparent is
one way of doing so, making possible to complement the use of
financial accounts for the analysis of HHs’ financial wealth. Indeed,
SNA93 and ESA95 nomenclatures do not always provide sufficient
detail for a complete analysis of HHs’ wealth and the risks they
bear.
This method was first used by M. Boutillier et al. in “Placements
des ménages en Europe : le rôle des intermédiaires financiers
se transforme en profondeur”, Economie et Statistiques, n°354,
pp. 85-102, 2002.
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2. Making financial intermediation transparent

This approach consists in “looking through” financial institutions (FI) and reallocating to households the “final” assets that FI hold on other sectors:





Available, if possible, with different breakdowns in order to enhance the analysis:









deposits,
debt securities,
quoted shares,
unquoted equity,
less or equal to 1 year / over 1 year maturity,
national currency / foreign currencies,
resident counterparties / non-resident counterparties,
securities issued by general government / issued by other sectors,
etc,…
For the re-allocation process, the structure of investment of each FI is applied to
households’ assets held with FI.
As FI also invest part of their assets with other FI, this method has to be applied
several times so as to completely eliminate intermediated investments from
the structure applied to HHs intermediated assets.
Indeed, life insurance corporations invest in mutual fund shares and mutual funds
are allowed to invest into other mutual fund shares. Therefore, after one round of
‘re-allocation’, mutual fund shares remain in HHs’ assets. Thus, the remaining
amount of investment in MFS should be replaced by the structure of their
investment, giving again a residual amount invested in MFS,...
This can be solved by matrix stepwise calculations: please refer to the articles
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2.1 Making transparent financial assets held with all FI in 2006

In this case, 4 ‘final’ instruments:





Available with the following breakdowns:





deposits (including loans and currency),
debt securities,
quoted shares,
unquoted equity (AF512+AF513),
national currency / foreign currencies,
resident counterparties / non-resident counterparties,
General Government financing / private sector financing,
For the year 2006
Financial intermediaries made transparent:




Credit institutions and investment corporations (~ banks)
Money market mutual funds
Non-money market mutual funds
Insurance Corporations
The article: “La destination finale de l’épargne des ménages”, A. Rincon, Bulletin de la
Banque de France, n°167, November 2007 (http://www.banquefrance.fr/fr/publications/telechar/bulletin/etu167_2.pdf)
The analysis of households' wealth with and beyond national accounts, OECD,WPFS 13 October 2008
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2.1 Making transparent financial assets held with all FI in 2006

The initial structure of HHs’ financial investment (1)
At end 2006, 87% of HHs’ financial assets were placed with financial
intermediaries and 13% were directly invested in final assets
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2.1 Making transparent financial assets held with all FI in 2006
Financial intermediaries’ structure of investment (1)


Each FI has its own structure of investment:
The analysis of households' wealth with and beyond national accounts, OECD,WPFS 13 October 2008
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2.1 Making transparent financial assets held with all FI in 2006
The final destination of HHs’ savings


A different view of HHs’ financial investment :
The transparency making
process
modifies
significantly the structure
of
investment
by
instrument
of
HHs’
financial wealth
The analysis of households' wealth with and beyond national accounts, OECD,WPFS 13 October 2008
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2.1 Making transparent financial assets held with all FI in 2006
The final destination of HHs’ savings


Financial intermediation contributes to international diversification of HHs’
financial investment:
The analysis of households' wealth with and beyond national accounts, OECD,WPFS 13 October 2008
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2.1 Making transparent financial assets held with all FI in 2006
The final destination of HHs’ savings


Financial intermediation contributes to international diversification of HHs’
financial investment:
The analysis of households' wealth with and beyond national accounts, OECD,WPFS 13 October 2008
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2.1 Making transparent financial assets held with all FI in 2006
The final destination of HHs’ savings


HHs’ financial investment after transparency making process largely
finances General Government, French or Euro area:
The analysis of households' wealth with and beyond national accounts, OECD,WPFS 13 October 2008
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2.1 Making transparent financial assets held with all FI in 2006
The final destination of HHs’ savings


HHs’ financial investment after transparency making process largely
finances General Government, French or Euro area:
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2.2 Making transparent financial assets held with all nonbanking FI during 1994-2005

In this case, 5 ‘final’ instruments:






Available with the following breakdowns:




deposits (including loans and currency),
debt securities,
quoted shares,
unquoted equity (AF512+AF513),
and additional real-estate related financial instruments.
less or equal to 1 year / over 1 year maturity,
national currency / foreign currencies,
resident counterparties / non-resident counterparties.
Over the period 1994-2005
The article: “The final financial investment of French households”, D.
Marionnet, Irving Fisher Committee Bulletin, n°25, Bank for International
Settlements, March 2007 (http://www.bis.org/ifc/publ/ifcb25o.pdf)
The analysis of households' wealth with and beyond national accounts, OECD,WPFS 13 October 2008
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2.2 Making transparent financial assets held with all nonbanking FI during 1994-2005
Initial structure of HHs' financial investments

100%
80%

60%
40%

20%

0%
Dec- Dec94
95
Dec- Dec- Dec96
97
98
Dec- Dec99
00
Dec- Dec- Dec01
02
03
Life insurance (F611)
Mutual fund shares (F52)
Unquoted equity (F512+F513)
Quoted shares (F511)
Debt securities (F3)
Deposits, loans and currency (F2+F4)
Source: Banque de France (quarterly financial accounts)
Dec- Dec04
05


Deposits, loans and currency:
predominant but declining (from
45% to 35%)
Life insurance: the most rapid
and constant growth (from 19.9%
to 34.4%)
Unquoted equity: significant
increase (from 12.3% to 19.6%)
Mutual fund shares: significant
decrease in MMFs’ shares (5.7%
to 1%), slighter decrease of other
MFs’ shares (from 11.1% to
8.7%)
Quoted shares: some fluctuations
around 4%
Debt securities: sharp decrease
in direct holding (from 6.4% to
1.5%)
The analysis of households' wealth with and beyond national accounts, OECD,WPFS 13 October 2008
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2.2 Making transparent financial assets held with all nonbanking FI during 1994-2005
Compared to direct holding, debt securities is the ‘final’ instrument which increases
the most, followed by quoted shares while unquoted equity and deposits present a
limited increase.
HHs' financial investments in ‘final’ instruments
100%

80%

60%

40%
20%

0%
Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec05
04
03
02
01
00
99
98
97
96
95
94
Deposits, loans and currency (F2+F4)
Quoted shares (F511)
Real-estate related financial instruments
Debt securities (F3)
Unquoted equity (F512+F513)

Deposits, loans and currency:
still predominant despite a
decline (from 49% to 38%)
Debt securities: fluctuations
around 30%
Unquoted equity: increasing
though in spite of some
fluctuations due to market
valuation
Quoted shares: fluctuations
due to stock market prices
evolution
Additional real-estate related
assets: residual
Source: Banque de France (quarterly financial accounts and IFs database)
The analysis of households' wealth with and beyond national accounts, OECD,WPFS 13 October 2008
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2.2 Making transparent financial assets held with all non-banking FI during 1994-2005
Direct and intermediated HHs’ holdings of
Debt securities
Quoted shares
100%
100%
80%
80%
60%
60%
40%
40%
20%
20%
0%
0%
Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
Direct holding
Via Mutual fund shares
Via Life insurance
(in % of all final holdings of the instrument)


At Dec05, 78% of HHs’ final
investment in debt securities
are made via life insurance,
17% via mutual funds and 5%
directly.
Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
Direct holding
Via Mutual fund shares
Via Life insurance
(in % of all final holdings of the instrument)


Quoted shares, as a ‘final’
instrument, are held in a fairly
even manner over the period.
At Dec05, 42% are held via ICs,
30% directly and 28% via IFs.
Unquoted equities are in average held directly at more than 85% over the decade
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2.2 Making transparent financial assets held with all nonbanking FI during 1994-2005
Chart 7: Share of risky assets in HHs' financial wealth

40%
35%
30%

25%
20%
15%
10%
Dec94
Dec95
Dec96
Dec97
Dec98
Dec99
Dec00
Dec01
Dec02
Dec03
Dec04
Dec05
risky assets = assets highly
sensitive to price
fluctuations
French HHs tend to
increasingly hold risky
assets: clear upward trend
(in spite of sensitivity to
stock market fluctuations).
After transparency
Chart 8: Share of risky assets in HHs' financial and non financial wealth

78%
76%
74%
72%

70%
68%
66%
64%
Dec94
Dec95
Dec96
Dec97
Dec98
Dec99
Dec00
Dec01
Dec02
Dec03
Dec04
Dec05
Risky assets predominant
(77%) when housing assets
are included.
The trend towards more
risk exposure has been
reinforced by the rapid rise
in housing prices since
2000.
in total w ealth
The analysis of households' wealth with and beyond national accounts, OECD,WPFS 13 October 2008
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2.2 Making transparent financial assets held with all nonbanking FI during 1994-2005
Chart 10: Share of liquid assets in households' financial wealth
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Dec94
Dec95
Dec96
Dec97
Dec98
Before transparency



Dec99
Dec00
Dec01
Dec02
Dec03
Dec04
Dec05
After transparency
Liquidity = ability to sell relatively rapidly the underlying instruments to obtain cash.
HHs’ financial asset is less liquid than that of IFs and life ICs.

Indeed, life ICs invest in marketable securities whereas HHs’ assets in life
insurance may not be considered as liquid products (tax-exemption on realised
capital-gains occurs after 8 years).
A different picture would appear if MFIs were made transparent as they hold an
important share of non-liquid assets (loans mainly) on their asset side.
The analysis of households' wealth with and beyond national accounts, OECD,WPFS 13 October 2008
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2.2 Making transparent financial assets held with all non-banking FI during 19942005
Chart 11: Share of HHs' financial assets invested in foreign currencies
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
Dec94
Dec95
Dec96
Dec97
Dec98
Dec99
Dec00
Dec01
Dec02
Dec03
Dec04
Dec05
After transparency



French financial accounts do not distinguish euro-denominated assets from
foreign currency denominated assets for the instruments ‘other mutual fund
shares’ and ‘life insurance contracts’. => currency risk exposure can only
be calculated after transparency.
The share of assets denominated in foreign currencies after transparency
lies a little bit above 5% before the euro changeover and around 4.5% after.
=> the euro changeover permitted geographical diversification while
reducing the need to bear currency risk.
French HHs bear a low and relatively stable foreign currency risk.
The analysis of households' wealth with and beyond national accounts, OECD,WPFS 13 October 2008
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2.2 Making transparent financial assets held with all non-banking FI during 19942005
Chart 12: Share of HHs' financial assets invested with NR counterparts
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Dec94
Dec95
Dec96
Dec97
Dec98
Before transparency



Dec99
Dec00
Dec01
Dec02
Dec03
Dec04
Dec05
After transparency
Before transparency, the share of HHs’ wealth invested in assets involving NR
counterparts is quite low reflecting the fact that HHs primarily transact with
resident intermediaries and do not easily invest directly with RoW counterparts.
After transparency, geographical diversification comes from financial
intermediaries and is increasing. The share of HHs’ wealth involving NR issuers or
counterparts started to rise in 1998, climbing from 11.5% up to 21.9% in Dec. 2005.
This increase has been made possible by the euro, which allows geographical
diversification without currency risk (ICs are constrained by regulatory rules in their
capacity to incur such a risk).
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3. Enlarging households’ wealth for pensions (1/5)
Households’ pension wealth in social security and ICPF in the
supplementary tables of the revised SNA: a test exercise for France
Data available for pension entitlements and related flows for 2005
data in bold are calculated from published data, others are estimates of the authors
civil
servants
plan
social
security
from Prost
DC plans &
ife
insurance
DB plans &
book
reserves
contributors
2 635
1 586
2 459
16 638
19 097
22 058
beneficiaries
2 635
?
1 961
11 939
13 900
11 994
70
87
950
6 565
7 672
5 980
4
4
24
136
167
139
11
11
13
social
security
total
1
Pension entitlement (opening BS)
2
actual contributions
3
taxes and govt transfers
4
imputed contributions incl. actualisation
1
6
34
319
360
281
5
pensions paid
2
2
33
160
197
153
6
Pension entitlement (closing BS)
74
94
975
6 872
8 015
6 260
6 = 1+2+3+4-5
discount rate = 2%
contributors of column 3 and 4 add up to the total, but not the one for columne 1 and 2 as these plans are supplementaries
The analysis of households' wealth with and beyond national accounts, OECD,WPFS 13 October 2008
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3. Enlarging households wealth for pensions (2/5)
Insurance corporations (mainly) and PERCO (marginally) are in charge of
private pension plans in France
Private pensions, data sources and estimation methods
outstanding amounts as at en 2006, in euro million
nature
classification in the present study
life insurance and other DC plans
insurance contracts with fiscal provisions
defined contribution (art 82 CGI)
defined contribution (art 83 CGI)
individual workers (Madelin)
pension in life
farm worker
insurance
specialised insurance corporations
Institution de prévoyance
Institutions de retraite supplémentaire
Mutual insurance
individual pension plans
life insurance
PERP
other individual plans
pension in
specialised financial corporation
pension funds
PERCO
pension in
DB plans and book reserves
employer sector
defined benefit (art 39 CGI)
(risk born by the
retirement benefit
employer)
companies net liabilities
sources
FFSA
FFSA
FFSA
FFSA
type status in fin. accounts reserves contributions pensions
dc
dc
dc
dc
estimates
estimates
estimates
life insurance reserves
2 734
20 933
11 154
2 214
190
1 899
1 705
205
160
1 224
188
37
life insurance reserves
4 000
19 600
15 000
?
?
?
17
83
63
2 350
29 041
852
3 520
0
893
761
432
0
30 993
11 901
25 674
2 797
1 275
?
1 812
696
?
FFSA
FFSA
dc
dc
life insurance reserves
AFG
dc
mutual funds shares
FFSA
FFSA
Mercer
db
db
?
life insurance reserves
not yet recorded
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3. Enlarging households wealth for pensions (3/5)
Compilation of actuarial value of pension funds in the US
Table A.3: Balance Sheet for US Households with Actuarial Measures of Pension and Social Security Wealth
(Ratios to Net Disposable Household Income; Unincorporated Businesses Consolidated)
Real estate and tangible assets of unincorporated businesses
Deposits and money market shares
Bonds and mortgages, including held in mutual funds, plus
miscellaneous
Equities (directly held+held in mutual funds)
Life insurance, annuities and defined contribution pension and
retirement plans
Actuarial value of defined benefit pension plans
Actuarial value of benefits payable by the Pension Benefit
Guarantee Corp
Actuarial value of future social security benefits net of future taxes
Home mortgage debt
Other liabilities
Assets of social security trust fund
Social security trust fund+taxes less benefits for future participants if
positive
Financial net worth with actuarial values of pension wealth
2006
2.99
0.77
2007
2.92
0.80
0.77
0.92
0.83
0.84
0.74
0.85
0.74
NA
0.007
1.71
1.08
0.72
0.20
0.007
1.71
1.09
0.75
0.20
0.20
2.24
0.28
NA
The analysis of households' wealth with and beyond national accounts, OECD,WPFS 13 October 2008
36
3. Enlarging households wealth for pensions (4/5)
A renewed view on international comparison of households assets
(in% of corrected disposable income – social security by Prost)
United states
France
10
7
7
8
8
6
6
5
5
6
6
4
4
4
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
0
0
1
1
0
0
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
20
07
20
06
20
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
01
20
00
19
99
19
98
19
96
19
95
19
97
social security
db pension plans
Life insurance and dc pension plans
Equities, including held in mutual funds
Bonds, incl. held in mutual funds, miscellaneous
Deposits and money market shares
Residential real estate and fixed assets
All mortgate and nonmortgage liabilities
Residential mortgage liabilities
07
10
05
8
03
8
01
12
99
12
97
9
95
9
social security
defined benefit plans and boo k reserves
life insurance and other defined contribution plans
equities including held in mutual funds
bonds and bills, including held in mutual funds
deposits (incl. held in mutual funds) and MMF
housing
other net assets
o.w. mortgage debt
loans from credit institutions
The analysis of households' wealth with and beyond national accounts, OECD,WPFS 13 October 2008
37
3. Enlarging households wealth for pensions (5/5)
The risk on social security may be measured by the discounted future
financing gaps
Assets and “value at risk” (in grey) for HHs in France (as a % of gross disposable income)
The article: “Implicit social security and pension wealth in households” assets in the US and France”, D. Durant
and M. Reinsdorf, paper presented at the International Association for Research in Income and Wealth,
August 2008 (http://www.iariw.org/papers/2008/durant.pdf)
The analysis of households' wealth with and beyond national accounts, OECD,WPFS 13 October 2008
38
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