A report prepared for RDA Brisbane
Presentation to Lord Mayor’s Economic
Development Steering Committee

1
2
3
4
Our Approach
Greater Brisbane Labour Market Environment
1989 - 2011
Key Findings and Employment Projections
2012 - 2021
Policy Implications
2
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1
2
3
4
Our Approach
Greater Brisbane Labour Market Environment
1989 - 2011
Key Findings and Employment Projections
2012 - 2021
Policy Implications
3
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1.
Quantitative Analysis:
– Test for structural breaks in the Greater Brisbane Labour
Market over period 1989 – 2011
– Shift share analysis
– Produce baseline predictions and Business as Usual (BAU) scenario – to identify potential shortfall
2.
Industry Consultation:
– Obtain views from industry groups on likely labour market issues facing Greater Brisbane
– Acted as independent audit of our findings
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2
3
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Our Approach
Greater Brisbane Labour Market Environment
1989 - 2011
Key Findings and Employment Projections
2012 - 2021
Policy Implications
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Current Structure of Queensland Labour Market
Queensland labour market is tight with low unemployment rates and a number of unfilled vacancies
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• Overall, 405,000 persons (32%) of resident population moved, in or out, of Brisbane labour market
• 6.7% left Brisbane for other parts of
Queensland
• 4.1% left for interstate
• 6.5% in-migrated from rest of Queensland
• 7.9% in-migrated from rest of Australia
• 7.2% in-migrated from overseas
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390
370
350
330
310
410
390
370
350
330
Occupational Labour Supply and Demand in Queensland
Technicians and Trades Workers Managers
350
300
250
200
Machinery Operators and Drivers
Sales Workers
190
170
150
130
280
260
240
220
200
Labourers
Professionals
320
300
280
260
240
490
440
390
340
Clerical and Administrative Workers
Community and Personal Service Workers
250
230
210
190
170
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3
2,5
2
1,5
1
0,5
0
Australia and Queensland seasonally adjusted U/V ratio
0,2
0,2
0,1
0,1
0,0
Brisbane 3 months moving average U/V ratio
0,4
0,3
0,3
Australia Queensland
• Queensland has a tight labour market but not as tight as Australia
• Situation expect to reverse as mining industry recovers in Queensland
Three Months Moving Average
• Brisbane labour market is tightening
• there are 2-3 unemployed persons per advertised position
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• Overall, the picture of the distribution of employment by industry, occupation and qualification is:
– a pronounced shift into Managerial, Professional and
Services positions in Mining, Public Administration and
Safety, Health Care and Social Assistance, Education and
Training, and Accommodation and Food Services
– Above national growth in higher level post-school qualifications
– Lower than expected growth in lower level and technical qualifications
• Indicating an underperformance and even partial withdrawal from processing, trades and labouring positions
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35,00%
30,00%
25,00%
20,00%
15,00%
10,00%
5,00%
0,00%
Vacancies unfilled and filled with staff lacking the desired skills of capabilities
Competition for vacancies in Brisbane
25
20
15
10
5
0
40
35
30
Vacancies Unfilled
Vacancies filled with workers who lacked desired skills/capabilities
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Average no.of applicants per vacancy Average no. of applicants suitable per vacancy

Non-School
Qualifications
Postgraduate diploma or graduate
(postgraduate degree)
Graduate diploma or graduate certificate
Bachelor degree
Advanced diploma or diploma
Certificate III/IV
Certificate I/II
Growth Rate 2006-
2011
Graduating Numbers on Past Trend
Likely Graduating
Numbers
4.9 %
2.18 %
3.34 %
4.39%
5.39 %
-2.41 %
41,000
13,000
168,000
128,000
126,000
-25,000
19,000
11,600
88,200
38,000
36,500
-16,000
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1
2
3
4
Our Approach
Greater Brisbane Labour Market Environment
1989 - 2011
Key Findings and Employment Projections
2012 - 2021
Policy Implications
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Occupational employment baseline growth rates for
2012-2021 suggest Brisbane will expand by 343,000 jobs by 2021
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Major Occupational Groups
Manager
Sub-Major Occupational Groups
[11] Chief Executives, General Managers
[12] Farmers and Farm Managers
[13] Specialist Managers (Construction, Production, Distribution, Health Education)
[14] Hospitality, Retail and Service Man (Retail, Accommodation)
Professionals
Technicians and Trades Workers
Community and Personal Service Workers
Clerical and Administrative Workers
[22] Business, Human Resource and Market (Sales, Marketing Public)
[23] Design, Engineering, Science and Training
[25] Health Professionals
[26] ICT Professionals (ICT/ Information)
[27] Legal, Social and Welfare Professionals
[32] Automotive and Engineering Trades W
[33] Construction Trades Workers
[34] Electrotechnology and Telecommunica
[35] Food Trades Workers
[36] Skilled Animal and Horticultural Wo
[39] Other Technicians and Trades Worker (Hairdressing)
[42] Carers and Aides
[43] Hospitality Workers
[44] Protective Service Workers
[45] Sports and Personal Service Workers
[53] General Clerical Workers
[55] Numerical Clerks
[59] Other Clerical and Administrative W
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Forecasts of additional employees required for the period 2012-2021, by major occupational groups,
Greater Brisbane Labour Market
Occupations
Managers
Persons to Employ
62,403
136,410
Professionals
46,202
Technicians and trades workers
26,937
Community and personal service workers
34,288
Clerical and administrative workers
16,786
Sales workers
9,681
Machinery operators and drivers
10,626
Labourers
343,333
Total
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Forecasts of additional employees required for the period 2012-2021, by industry divisions a , Greater
Brisbane Labour Market
Industry
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Mining
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas, water and waste services
Construction
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Accommodation and food services
Transport, postal and warehousing
Information media and telecommunications
Financial and insurance services
Rental, hiring and real estate services
Professional, scientific and technical services
Administrative and support services
Public administration and safety
Education and training
Health care and social assistance
Arts and recreation services
Other services
Total
Persons to Employ
-270
10,297
3,836
3,726
43,359
-3,221
23,070
27,030
12,452
7,776
1,028
10,717
52,123
18,770
34,457
28,013
58,519
6,567
4,084
342,333
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4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
7
6
5
Synergies Non-Linear DEEWR Access Economics NIEIR ABS/SGS
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3,5
3
2,5
2
1,5
1
5
4,5
4
0,5
0
Managers and
Admin
Professionals technicians and tradesmen
Community and
Personal services
Clerical and
Administrative
Sales Workers Machinery operators and
Drivers
Synergies Access DEEWR ABS/SGS NIEIR Average
Labourers
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Extra employment needed between 2012-2021 – under baseline predictions
Changes to persons to be employed by industry
Industry
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Mining
Manufacturing
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
Construction
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Accommodation and Food Services
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
Information Media and Telecommunications
Financial and Insurance services
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
Administrative and Support Services
Public Administration and Safety
Education and Training
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts and Recreation Services
Other Services
Total
Persons to Employ
-270
10,297
3,836
3,726
43,359
-3,221
23,070
27,030
12,452
7,776
1,028
10,717
52,123
18,770
34,457
28,013
58,519
6,567
4,084
342,333
Changes to persons to be employed by occupation
Occupations
Managers
Professionals
Technicians and Trades Workers
Community and Personal Service
Workers
Clerical and Administrative Workers
Sales Workers
Machinery Operators and Drivers
Labourers
Total
Persons to Employ
62403
136410
46202
26937
34288
16786
9681
10626
343333
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400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
450
Managers Professionals Technicians and
Trades Workers
Community and
Personal
Services
Workers
Clerical and
Administrative
Workers
2013 Baseline 2013 BAU 2017 Baseline 2017 BAU
Sales Workers
2021 Baseline
Machinery
Operators and
Drivers
2021 BAU
Labourers
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100
50
0
200
150
250
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2021 Baseline 2021 BAU

1
2
3
4
Our Approach
Greater Brisbane Labour Market Environment
1989 - 2011
Key Findings and Employment Projections
2012 - 2021
Policy Implications
23 TITLE OF PRESENTATION GOES IN FOOTER www.synergies.com.au

1.
Intervention is needed to stop excess labour demand pressures, particularly in health related areas
2.
Increase efforts to attract inward migration (address housing and infrastructure base issues)
3.
Emphasise bridging courses to retrain and up-skill workers
4.
Accept and assist predicted structural changes to occur
5.
VET system reform
1.
Greater role in less traditional areas (e.g. arts, media and ICT)
2.
Increase tertiary access to disadvantaged groups
6.
Ensure institutional and legislative arrangements are focused on fast tracking the creation of suitable labour
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