Spotlight on South and Latin America 2011 International Business Institute for Community College Faculty Dr. Manuel Chavez MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY College of Communication Arts & Sciences School of Journalism Latin American Studies Central Questions about Latin America & South America What are the differences between Latin America and South America? Has Latin America improved in the last five years? Is there another leader besides Mexico and Brazil? Is Latin America ready for change, especially for regional free trade (FTAA)? Is the business environment the same across Latin America? Reality vs Assumptions Business Realities in Latin America the hard way… Significant differences by country and by region More than economics, institutional capacity is critical …and accountability and transparency …and also, the Rule of Law National cultures vs Corporate cultures Is NAFTA-Mexico a good example?…well Is NAFTA-Mexico a good example? Cross-cultural exchange very fluid and positive, resulting in: Mexico continues to be the largest recipient of FDI, specially from the United States and Canada (strategic sectors of Canada Investments) American corporations are in most Mexican cities and regions (except for the South) How well do U.S. corporations do in Mexico? Auto Industry (GM, Ford, Chrysler) Electronics & computers (Apple, Dell, Sony, HP) Appliances (GE, Whirlpool, LG) Aeronautics (GE, RR, Bombardier, Bell Aviation) Agro-industries (Kellogg’s, Pilgrims Pride, Monsanto) So, the business and economic model is working Canada as Economic leader in Latin America Strategic alliances with Mexico, Cuba, and the Caribbean. Sectors: Energy Telecommunications Transportation Financial & Insurance Foreign Relations and Influence of Canada Public Diplomacy North America (NAFTA) XXI Century Realities a. b. c. d. e. NAFTA consolidation and expansion (NA currency) Economic regional free trade with the Americas Competition focusing on the EU + EE countries 2005 Security and Prosperity Partnership (SPP) of North America NATIONAL SECURITY The New Economic Pattern of North America Post-industrial USA, from manufacturing based to technologyknowledge based. U.S. vertical integration Canada and Mexico link to the U.S. market NAFTA US-FTA with Chile, Panama, Peru, and Colombia CAFTA (Central America and the DR) FTAA (is it dead?) North American Free Trade Agreement –2010 Results 2010 Total Value $917.3 billion Increase in the last 5 years by 31% Trade with Canada equals $524 billion, increase by 12% in 5y Trade with Mexico equals $393 billion increase by 61% in 5y Trade with Canada and Mexico accounts for almost 47% of the total U.S. trade The U.S. is trade partner #1 for Canada and Mexico. For the U.S. # 1 and # 3. U.S. corporations seeking to export to EU through Mexico 2005 Security and prosperity agenda (logistics, logistics, and logistics) Data: U.S. Dept. of Commerce and U.S. Trade Authority Office Security and Prosperity Partnership of North America (SPP)…NAFTA and the Post 9/11 effect Signed in Waco, Texas. March 23, 2005 New initiative to strengthen regional interdependence in NAFTA Countries –the Post 9/11 effect (SPP) SECURITY Content a reas PROSPERITY Traveler security Manufactured goods, sectoral & regional competitiveness Cargo security Movement o f goods Bio-protection E-commerce and ICT Aviation security Financial services Maritim e security Law enforcement cooperationTransportation Energy Intelli gence cooperation Protection, prevention and Environment response Food and agriculture Border facili tation Health Science and technology cooperation Total areas 10 9 Mercosur and how Americas’ trade is difficult Brazil controls on trade in South America, until Argentina and Chile resisted Venezuela’s manipulation of oil and nationalistic policies –resisted by Brazil Argentina’s protectionism and separation of U.S. but in practice... Competition to attract foreign direct investment….all over the continent Wide Latin American strong opposition to U.S. subsidies Production of ethanol What variables have a critical role for the U.S. to induce FTAs? Addition of Eastern European countries to EU National security in the continent–a premium variable for the U.S. Political stability in the continent Sustainable economic growth But, is the U.S. Congress ready? What are the regional political variables that collide with U.S. interests? Venezuela –the expansion of the Chavez model Cuba -the transition to market economics The political left expansion: Brazil, Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador, Peru, Chile, Nicaragua. Lack of real economic improvement (per capita) due to trade …and a key variable: the Socioeconomic conditions in Latin America …and another: the Socio-economic conditions in Latin America Yet, the U.S. Dept. of Commerce is seeking to reactivate negotiations by: sparking and sustaining innovation creating solutions in education and workforce development designing successful global supply chain strategies fostering small business development and growth Mexico Basic Briefing Population 2010: 113.7 million Capital (population): Mexico City (18,000,000) Life expectancy at birth: male 74.7 years, female 79.2 years (2010 est.) Physicians per 1000 people: 1.73 Rural/urban population ratio: 26/74 GDP: 1.05 trillion GDP per capita: $13,900 (2010) Mexico’s economic model North American Transportation sector 3rd generation “maquiladora” production Energy production Tourism & retirement What is the future of Mexico’s socio-economic scenario? a. b. c. d. Rule of law, accountability and transparency Reduction of social inequality Investment in R&D Heavy investment in human capital infrastructure Brazil Basic Briefing Population 2010: 167.7 million Capital (population): Brasilia City (4 million) Life expectancy at birth: male 68.7 years, female 76.2 years (2010 est.) Physicians per 1000 people: 1.03 Rural/urban population ratio: 13/87 GDP: 1.8 trillion GDP per capita: $10,800 (2010) Brazil Economic Model Active closeness with Europe Less dependency from the U.S. Industrialization National economic development Global role Energy supplier Brazil’s future scenario focus on socio-economic development a. b. c. d. e. Rule of Law Reduction of social inequality Investment in R&D Heavy investment in human capital infrastructure So what?.... Working force development requires to add International Education and Skills (+) Working Knowledge in: Language skills – functional level Culture at the exchange level Political, economic, and social systems. National cultures Corporate cultures abroad