Assessment of Dissemination Practice for Economic and Financial Statistics United Nations Statistics Division/Department of Economic and Social Affairs International Seminar on Timeliness, Methodology and Comparability of Rapid Estimates of Economic Trends, 27-29 May, Ottawa, Canada Consultations on the Financial and Economic Crisis •High Level Forum the Long-term Development the SNA, Washington D.C. , 17-18 November •Official Statistics and the Impact of the Global Financial Crisis, New York, 22 February •High Level Forum on Globalization and Global Crisis: the role of Official Statistics, New York, 23 February •40th Session of the Statistical Commission Findings from consultations • Dissemination of high frequency statistics • availability, timeliness and comparability • Communication (integrating analytical, policy and statistical frameworks –statistics and commentaries) • Institutional environment • user consultation (policy departments, academia, corporate sector) • collaboration between Statistical Offices and Central Banks, Ministry of Finance, etc. Stylized Facts of the Financial and Economic Crisis •Size (global – affecting developed, emerging and developing countries) • common data template of core set of high frequency statistics based on inventory of available high frequency statistics •Speed (one year cycle, 2007-8) • accelerated dissemination where possible •Transmission mechanism (through products, new units, etc.) • closing data gaps – Sectoral and cross border exposures to risk and contagion Scope of data template for economic and financial statistics • High frequency statistics and their accelerated first estimates • Accelerated production and release of a high frequency statistics as a first estimate early after the end of the reference period • Theoretical sound, based on normative standards • Time series available • Direct observations (no forecasting) • Predictive power to detect turning points • Signal vulnerabilities and exposures • Link between the real and financial economy Assessment of Availability and Timeliness •Macroeconomic growth and stability •Sectoral vulnerabilities and developments •Market conditions Assessment of Availability and Timeliness (cont) – Annex I • Availability by 12 Data Categories • Macroeconomic growth and stability (4) • National accounts, • Production and turnover • Prices • Labor Assessment of Availability and Timeliness (cont) • Sectoral vulnerabilities and developments (5) • External sector • Financial sector • Government sector • Household sector • Non-financial sector Assessment of Availability and Timeliness (cont) •Market conditions (2) • Financial market • Real estate market •Economic Sentiments (1) • Consumer and business confidence, composite business cycle indicators (LCI, CCI, LCI) Assessment of Availability and Timeliness (cont) Set 1: Quarterly National Accounts Quarterly National Accounts: First GDP estimate Quarterly National Accounts: GDP release with more breakdowns (as relevant by expenditures, production by economic activities and income components Quarterly National Accounts: Sector accounts (as relevant, household, corporations, general government sectors) Assessment of Availability and Timeliness (cont) For each of the 12 data categories • Core set of high frequency statistics • Supplementary set of high frequency statistics, if any • Periodicity and timeliness (recommended/ encouraged) Elements of assessment of the dissemination dimensions • 1. Availability (since when: month/year) • 2. Periodicity (monthly, quarterly) • 3. Timeliness (T + days, number of days after the reference period T) • 4. Coverage (% of total) • 5. Target audience (general public, experimental (for research only), internal administrative use only, international (rating) agencies only Elements of assessment of the dissemination dimensions (cont.) • 6. Advance release calendar (available, not available) • 7. Meta data (available, not available) • 8. Adjustments (seasonal adjustment, calendar-day adjustment) • 9. Compiling agency (national statistical institute, central bank, ministry of finance, other) • 10. Improvements (improved business register and/or sample design new basic statistics, new extrapolation and related techniques, integration of high frequency statistics, IT innovations, institutional collaboration, other) Expected outcome from break-out sessions • Data template of core (and supplementary) set of high frequency statistics by 12 data categories based on the assessment of: • a current inventory of country dissemination practices of high frequency statistics and their first estimates • identification of data gaps • agreed elements of assessment Expected outcome from breakout session (cont) • Proposal for actions and initiatives in the near term: • Follow-up seminar based on agreed data template of core set of high frequency statistics and the accelerated first estimates • Comparability • Policy and analytical application of data template • Communication Expected outcome from breakout session (cont) • Proposal for actions and initiatives in the short term • at national level - introducing a common national dissemination platform, harmonizing the meta data descriptions, aligning the release calendars and revision practices, sharing IT software tools, etc.; and • at international level - undertaking a global assessment on high frequency statistics based on agreed data template, tracking dissemination practices, etc.) Expected outcome from breakout session (cont) • Proposals for actions and initiatives in the medium term • at national level - a coordinated implementation program based on analysis of strengths and weaknesses. • at international level – a coordinated implementation program and common research agenda