BRAZILIAN SYSTEM OF
TENDENCY SURVEYS AND
CYCLE INDICATORS
Aloisio Campelo Jr. (FGV/IBRE)
Hangzhou, October, 8, 2014
1
Overview
Economic Cycles at FGV…………………………………………..3
Timeline……………………………………………………………….4
Tendency Surveys……………………………………………….….5
Cycle Indicators...........................................................................9
Mostly used series and quantitative data...............................10
On Going Projects.....................................................................14
2
FGV Economic Cycles
Economic
Cycles
Statistics
Cycle Indicators
(Regular Tendency Surveys)
(Coincident, Leading, etc.)
Economic Cycles
Dating Committee
(CODACE)
Applied Studies
Seminars/
Conferences
Tendency Surveys and Cycle Indicators
Timeline of the FGV
M
M
M
2010
M
2013
Leading and Coincident Composite
Indicators TCB/FGV
2012
Labour market leading and
coincident Indicators
Trade &
Construction
2008
Services
Q
M
2005
Q
2007
Latin American
Economic Survey
Consumer
1998
Investment
M
1966
Manufacturing (Quarterly until 2005)
Experts survey/part of Ifo WES
System of Tendency Surveys
• Since 2008, expansion of coverage and improvements have been
supported by the Brazilian Central Bank;
• Main results are made public on FGV´s web site (www.portalibre.fgv.br);
• Detailed results are sold as a means of financing part of the investments.
Main Statistical Features
Business tendency Surveys
•
Questionnaires and sector coverage are similar to the European Harmonised Programme;
•
Firms stratified by size (large, medium and small) and sector;
•
Web-based questionnaire complemented by telephone calls.
Consumer Survey
•
Questionnaire combines the “European Harmonised”, Michigan and TCB;
•
Consumers stratified by income level and region (city);
•
Coverage – 7 major cities of the country;
•
Data collected by web and telephone calls.
Calendar for FGV Surveys is available at FGV´s web site: http://portalibre.fgv.br/
FGV Surveys – Size of Samples
Sector
Size of Sample
Number of sectors*
FGV´s monthly Business and Consumer Tendency Surveys
Manufacturing
1,200
21
Services
2,200
29
Trade
1,200
17
700
11
Total of monthly Business Surveys
5,300
78
Total of Consumer Survey
2,100
4/7*
Investment
850
21
Latin American Economic Survey
150
---
Construction
Quarterly Surveys
* 4 income levels; 7 cities
Indicators from Surveys used in Brazil
Besides the confidence indices, some individual indicators extracted from theses
surveys are widely used in Brazil:
•
Consumer´s Inflation Expectations (published separately);
•
Consumer´s employment assessment;
•
Household´s financial situation (delinquency rates);
•
Savings/consumption (consumer´s indebtedness cycle);
•
Manufacturing Level of Capacity Utilization (LCU);
•
Inventory levels;
•
Investment Confidence Index – Aggregation of confidence indices from sectors related
to productive investments (eg: capital goods, inputs to construction, etc).
Cycle Indicators
Starting in 2009, FGV created indicators from Tendency Surveys data combined with
other indicators:
• Labour market leading and coincident Indicators (only survey indicators);
• Leading and Coincident Composite Indicators TCB/FGV (following the
Conference Board traditional family of indicators).
Manufacturing Confidence Index
x Manufacturing Production*
30
140
120
10
110
0
100
90
-10
80
-20
Physical Output of Manufacturing Industry
Industry Confidence Index
-30
Source: FGV/IBRE and IBGE
* Published with a 40-day delay
70
60
Industry Confidence Index
Seasonally adjusted
Physical Output of Manufacturing Industry
% Var. over the same month last year
130
20
Future Business Situation x Investment
170
160
30
150
140
15
130
120
0
110
100
-15
90
Apparent Consumption
Future Business Situation
-30
Source: FGV/IBRE
80
Future Business Situation (Survey Indicator)
Seasonally adjusted,Quarterly Moving Average
Apparent Consumption of machineries and equipments
% Var. over the same quarter last year
45
Expected Employment x Industrial Employment
10
130
120
6
4
110
2
0
100
-2
90
-4
-6
-8
-10
Source: FGV/IBRE and MTE
80
Industrial Employment
Expected Employment
70
Expected Employment (Survey Indicator)
Seasonally adjusted, Quarterly Moving Average
Industrial Employment
% var. over the same quarter last year
8
Leading Economic Index and Coincident
Economic Index
135
135
125
125
115
115
105
105
95
95
Coincident Economic Index…
Leading Economic Index (LEI) 85
85
75
65
Aug/96
Feb/97
Aug/97
Feb/98
Aug/98
Feb/99
Aug/99
Feb/00
Aug/00
Feb/01
Aug/01
Feb/02
Aug/02
Feb/03
Aug/03
Feb/04
Aug/04
Feb/05
Aug/05
Feb/06
Aug/06
Feb/07
Aug/07
Feb/08
Aug/08
Feb/09
Aug/09
Feb/10
Aug/10
Feb/11
Aug/11
Feb/12
Aug/12
Feb/13
Aug/13
Feb/14
Aug/14
75
Source: FGV/IBRE
The gray areas represent the recessions of the brazilian economy, according to the Economic Cycle Dating Committee (CODACE).
On Going Projects
•
Level of capacity utilisation for non-manufacturing sectors (2013-);
•
Granting access to microdata from both Consumer and Business surveys to
academic researchers from inside and outside FGV (2014);
•
Website for the working papers: http://bit.ly/TextosDeDiscussaoIBRE
•
Extending the consumer Survey for the whole country (2014-);
•
Programme for producing an aggregate Confidence Index for the BRICS’
countries and a Book on the BRICS’ economic cycles (2012-);
Thanks