Input-Output Accounting UNSD SEEA Training of Trainers Seminar July 7-10, 2014, New York Joe St. Lawrence Statistics Canada The Economy and The Environment -Natural Resources -Ecosystem Services Stocks The Economy Flows Expenditures 2 Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada -Residuals 2016-07-23 SNA view Final demand Sectors Industries Assets Financial and produced assets, opening balance Industrial intermediate demand Final demand Gross fixed capital formation Wastes Commodities Industrial output of goods and services Sectors Other changes in volume & holding gains/losses on financial & produced assets 3 Statistics Canada • Financial and produced assets, closing balance Statistique Canada 2016-07-23 Flow Accounting United Nations, 2012, System of Environmental-Economic Accounting: Central Framework (white cover draft), New York. http://unstats.un.org/unsd/envaccounting/White_cover.pdf 4 Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 2016-07-23 Flow Accounting United Nations, 2012, System of Environmental-Economic Accounting: Central Framework (white cover draft), New York. http://unstats.un.org/unsd/envaccounting/White_cover.pdf 5 Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 2016-07-23 Integration – the IO tables 235 U 473 280 1 F q 473 primary 473 primary 473 1 V 235 6 g 235 Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 2016-07-23 Integration – the common denominator α = E/g α 235 7 1 1 1 = E 235 Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada / g 235 2016-07-23 Integration – the IO model • Basic identity: supply = demand q + inv- + m = u + fd + x + inv+ By substituting for market share (D=V/q) and technology (B=U/g), we get: g = (I - -1 DB) Df • Allows an estimate of the gross production (g) required from each industry to satisfy a given final demand (f) based on pre-defined relationships of market-share (D) and technology (B) 8 Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 2016-07-23 Sample results – attribution to demand g* = (I - -1 DB) Df pe Greenhouse Gas Emissions (carbon dioxide equivalents) attributable to household purchases and consumption, 2002 1 α 235 9 1 Indirect emissions Motor vehicles, parts & repairs Furniture and household appliances Other durable goods Clothing and footwear Other semi-durable goods Food and non-alcoholic beverage Motor fuels and lubricants Electricity Natural Gas Other fuels Other non-durable goods Gross rent (imputed and paid) Restaurants & hotels Other services Sub total, indirect emissions Direct emissions Heating, lighting and appliances Motor fuels and lubricants Sub total, direct emissions Total GHG emissions attributable to households = * g* 235 Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada kilotonnes 5,023 3,066 3,741 4,750 5,521 38,874 15,554 43,343 7,315 2,281 10,781 14,555 15,972 39,011 209,787 41,719 69,557 111,276 321,064 % 1.6% 1.0% 1.2% 1.5% 1.7% 12.1% 4.8% 13.5% 2.3% 0.7% 3.4% 4.5% 5.0% 12.2% 65.3% 13.0% 21.7% 34.7% 100.0% 2016-07-23 Sample results – time series 10 Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 2016-07-23 Sample results – direct and indirect intensities (multipliers) Direct plus indirect energy intensity by industry, 1990-2007 Industry1 1 α 235 11 235 * 235 (I - DB) -1 = 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1 Crop and animal production 18.70 Forestry and logging 11.80 Fishing, hunting and trapping 11.81 Support activities for agriculture and forestry 11.78 Oil and gas extraction 32.49 Coal mining 18.18 Metal ore mining 17.78 Non-metallic mineral mining and quarrying 22.87 Support activities for mining and oil and gas extraction 14.87 Electric power generation, transmission and distribution 62.63 Natural gas distribution, water and other systems 12.34 Residential building construction 8.94 Non-residential building construction 7.87 Transportation engineering construction 18.63 Oil and gas engineering construction 11.59 Electric power engineering construction 6.97 Communication engineering construction 7.58 Other engineering construction 8.17 Repair construction 8.06 Other activities of the construction industry 9.53 Animal food manufacturing 15.57 Sugar and confectionery product manufacturing 9.74 Fruit and vegetable preserving and specialty food manufacturing13.12 Dairy product manufacturing 15.46 Meat product manufacturing 15.87 Seafood product preparation and packaging 10.45 Miscellaneous food manufacturing 12.04 Soft-drink and ice manufacturing 10.73 Breweries 8.95 20.57 11.96 12.56 10.91 37.12 19.21 19.49 23.82 14.42 57.47 10.67 9.37 8.37 19.36 12.26 7.12 8.66 8.69 8.33 10.40 16.16 11.03 12.54 16.25 16.67 11.13 10.82 11.12 8.09 21.63 12.24 11.41 11.30 36.93 18.80 18.76 22.70 17.02 57.87 12.06 9.69 8.57 18.94 12.87 7.27 8.57 9.14 8.56 10.42 16.44 10.23 12.71 16.98 17.11 11.42 11.24 10.26 8.46 19.70 10.73 9.60 10.83 33.72 16.99 20.00 22.37 16.09 51.07 13.52 9.41 8.65 18.08 11.95 7.14 8.48 8.80 8.19 10.41 15.73 9.58 12.50 15.88 16.34 10.25 11.31 10.97 8.08 18.68 10.48 13.57 10.53 31.93 17.24 17.93 21.75 13.54 49.54 11.65 9.12 8.26 17.64 11.17 6.70 8.21 8.11 7.92 10.02 15.32 9.54 12.57 15.43 15.67 11.21 11.45 11.45 7.55 1 1 1 Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 2016-07-23 3 1 1 2 1 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Numerical example USE (U) cattle iron ore milk cheese fuel steel cars advertising 12 farms mines food manuf. other manuf. services 10 0 80 10 0 0 0 0 100 0 10 5 100 0 5 0 5 0 0 5 100 200 10 50 50 0 5 0 145 0 10 5 5 5 10 5 15 20 40 20 Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 2016-07-23 Numerical example USE (U) cattle iron ore milk cheese fuel steel cars advertising farms mines food manuf. other manuf. services 10 0 80 10 0 0 0 0 100 0 10 5 100 0 5 0 5 0 0 5 100 200 10 50 50 0 5 0 145 0 10 5 5 5 10 5 15 20 40 20 MAKE (V) cattle iron ore milk farms 100 0 mines 0 100 food manuf. 0 0 other manuf. 0 0 services 0 0 13 cheese 100 0 80 0 0 fuel 10 0 200 0 0 steel 0 1000 0 10 0 cars 0 0 0 150 0 advertising 0 0 0 0 0 0 200 0 0 100 Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 2016-07-23 Numerical example USE (U) cattle iron ore milk cheese fuel steel cars advertising farms mines food manuf. other manuf. services 10 0 80 10 0 0 0 0 100 0 10 5 100 0 5 0 5 0 0 5 100 200 10 50 50 0 5 0 145 0 10 5 5 5 10 5 15 20 40 20 MAKE (V) cattle iron ore milk farms 100 0 mines 0 100 food manuf. 0 0 other manuf. 0 0 services 0 0 14 cheese 100 0 80 0 0 fuel 10 0 200 0 0 steel 0 1000 0 10 0 Final Demand 0 0 60 200 600 0 165 0 cars 0 0 0 150 0 advertising 0 0 0 0 0 0 200 0 0 100 Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 2016-07-23 Numerical example USE (U) cattle iron ore milk cheese fuel steel cars advertising farms mines food manuf. other manuf. services 10 0 80 10 0 0 0 0 100 0 10 5 100 0 5 0 5 0 0 5 100 200 10 50 50 0 5 0 145 0 10 5 5 5 10 5 15 20 40 20 MAKE (V) cattle iron ore milk farms 100 0 mines 0 100 food manuf. 0 0 other manuf. 0 0 services 0 0 cheese 100 0 80 0 0 fuel Final Demand 0 0 60 200 600 0 165 0 10 0 200 0 0 steel 0 1000 0 10 0 cars 0 0 0 150 0 advertising 0 0 0 0 0 0 200 0 0 100 210 1010 150 200 g Σ 210 1100 280 360 100 Σ q 100 15 100 180 Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 100 2016-07-23 Numerical example B (U/g) cattle iron ore milk cheese fuel steel cars advertising Σ farms mines 0.05 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.48 0.00 0.05 0.02 0.6 16 other food manuf. manuf. 0.00 0.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.07 0.2 0.8 0.03 0.28 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.40 0.01 0.11 services 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.50 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.97 0.9 Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 2016-07-23 Numerical example B (U/g) cattle iron ore milk cheese fuel steel cars advertising Σ farms mines 0.05 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.48 0.00 0.05 0.02 0.6 other food manuf. manuf. 0.00 0.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.07 0.2 D (V/q) cattle iron ore milk farms 1.00 0.00 mines 0.00 1.00 food manuf. 0.00 0.00 other manuf. 0.00 0.00 services 0.00 0.00 Σ 1 17 1 0.8 0.03 0.28 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.40 0.01 0.11 services 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.50 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.97 0.9 cheese fuel steel cars 0.56 0.00 0.44 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.99 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 1 1 1 1 advertising 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1 Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 1 2016-07-23 Numerical example other (I-DB)ˉ¹ farms mines food manuf. manuf. farms 1.11 0.01 0.65 mines 0.74 1.26 0.59 food manuf. 0.04 0.01 1.22 other manuf. 0.13 0.03 0.14 services 0.07 0.03 0.16 meaning? 18 0.08 1.13 0.03 1.80 0.27 services 0.12 1.01 0.12 0.27 1.32 dollars of output from industry at row to deliver (to final demand) a dollar of output from industry at column Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 2016-07-23 Numerical example other (I-DB)ˉ¹ farms mines food manuf. manuf. farms 1.11 0.01 0.65 mines 0.74 1.26 0.59 food manuf. 0.04 0.01 1.22 other manuf. 0.13 0.03 0.14 services 0.07 0.03 0.16 meaning? 19 0.08 1.13 0.03 1.80 0.27 services 0.12 1.01 0.12 0.27 1.32 g=(I-DB)ˉ¹De 210 1100 280 360 100 g 210 1100 280 360 100 dollars of output from industry at row to deliver (to final demand) a dollar of output from industry at column Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 2016-07-23 Numerical example other (I-DB)ˉ¹ farms mines food manuf. manuf. farms 1.11 0.01 0.65 mines 0.74 1.26 0.59 food manuf. 0.04 0.01 1.22 other manuf. 0.13 0.03 0.14 services 0.07 0.03 0.16 services 0.08 0.12 1.13 1.01 0.03 0.12 1.80 0.27 0.27 1.32 De 42.86 594.06 217.14 170.94 0.00 farms only 47.51138 7.0069 141.1847 14.29702 0 210 g=(I-DB)ˉ¹De 210 1100 280 360 100 decompostion of row one of (I-DB)ˉ¹ times column one of De (Row 1 of (I-DB)ˉ¹ times column of De) 1.11 * 42.86 ($1.11 of production from farms is required to deliver a dollar of production from farms, so to get 42.86 of final demand we need farms to produce 47.5 dollars of output) Plus: 0.01 * 594.06 ($0.01 of production from farms is required to deliver a dollar of production from mines, so to get 594.06 of final demand we need farms to produce 7 dollars of output) Plus: 0.65 * 217.14 ($0.65 of production from farms is required to deliver a dollar of production from food manufacturers, so to get 217.14 of final demand we need farms to produce 141.2 dollars of output) Plus: 0.08 * 170.94 ($0.08 of production from farms is required to deliver a dollar of production from other manufacturers, so to get 170,94 of final demand we need farms to produce 14.3 dollars of output) Plus: 0.12 * 0 ($0.12 of production from farms is required to deliver a dollar of production from services, so to get 0.00 to final demand we need farms to produce 0 dollars of output) So, to deliver all of final demand, farms must produce 210 dollars of gross output 20 Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 2016-07-23 Sample results – direct and indirect intensities (multipliers) Direct plus indirect energy intensity by industry, 1990-2007 Industry1 1 α 235 21 235 * 235 (I - DB) -1 = 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1 Crop and animal production 18.70 Forestry and logging 11.80 Fishing, hunting and trapping 11.81 Support activities for agriculture and forestry 11.78 Oil and gas extraction 32.49 Coal mining 18.18 Metal ore mining 17.78 Non-metallic mineral mining and quarrying 22.87 Support activities for mining and oil and gas extraction 14.87 Electric power generation, transmission and distribution 62.63 Natural gas distribution, water and other systems 12.34 Residential building construction 8.94 Non-residential building construction 7.87 Transportation engineering construction 18.63 Oil and gas engineering construction 11.59 Electric power engineering construction 6.97 Communication engineering construction 7.58 Other engineering construction 8.17 Repair construction 8.06 Other activities of the construction industry 9.53 Animal food manufacturing 15.57 Sugar and confectionery product manufacturing 9.74 Fruit and vegetable preserving and specialty food manufacturing13.12 Dairy product manufacturing 15.46 Meat product manufacturing 15.87 Seafood product preparation and packaging 10.45 Miscellaneous food manufacturing 12.04 Soft-drink and ice manufacturing 10.73 Breweries 8.95 20.57 11.96 12.56 10.91 37.12 19.21 19.49 23.82 14.42 57.47 10.67 9.37 8.37 19.36 12.26 7.12 8.66 8.69 8.33 10.40 16.16 11.03 12.54 16.25 16.67 11.13 10.82 11.12 8.09 21.63 12.24 11.41 11.30 36.93 18.80 18.76 22.70 17.02 57.87 12.06 9.69 8.57 18.94 12.87 7.27 8.57 9.14 8.56 10.42 16.44 10.23 12.71 16.98 17.11 11.42 11.24 10.26 8.46 19.70 10.73 9.60 10.83 33.72 16.99 20.00 22.37 16.09 51.07 13.52 9.41 8.65 18.08 11.95 7.14 8.48 8.80 8.19 10.41 15.73 9.58 12.50 15.88 16.34 10.25 11.31 10.97 8.08 18.68 10.48 13.57 10.53 31.93 17.24 17.93 21.75 13.54 49.54 11.65 9.12 8.26 17.64 11.17 6.70 8.21 8.11 7.92 10.02 15.32 9.54 12.57 15.43 15.67 11.21 11.45 11.45 7.55 1 1 1 Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 2016-07-23 3 1 1 2 1 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Numerical example Intensity indicators emissions per unit of output (direct emissions intensity) a farms co2/g mines 0.5 0.8 food manuf.other manuf. services 0.3 0.4 0.1 alpha inverse 1.218388 1.030774 1.234589 1.698604 1.139405 (I-DB)ˉ¹ farms mines food manuf.other manuf. services farms 1.11 0.01 0.65 0.08 0.12 mines 0.74 1.26 0.59 1.13 1.01 food manuf. 0.04 0.01 1.22 0.03 0.12 other manuf. 0.13 0.03 0.14 1.80 0.27 services 0.07 0.03 0.16 0.27 1.32 So, a*(I-DB)ˉ¹ for row of a times column 1 of (I-DB)ˉ¹ is... 0.5 * 0.8 * 0.3 * 0.4 * 0.1 * farms is required to deliver a dollar of production from farms. Farms emit .05 CO2 per dollar of output,so in terms of emissions this is:) 0.554299 mines is required to deliver a dollar of production from farms. Mines emit .8 CO2 per dollar of output, so in terms of emissions this is:) 0.594947 food manuf. Is required to deliver a dollar of production from farms. Food manuf. Emit .3 CO2 per dollar of output, so in terms of emissions:) 0.011714 other manuf. Is required to deliver a dollar of output from farms. Other manuf. Emit .4 CO2 per dollar of output, so in terms of emissions:) 0.05075 services is required to deliver a dollar of output from farms. Services emit .1 CO2 per dollar of output, so in terms of emissions this is:) 0.006678 SUM 1.218388 This is the total emissions required (direct plus indirect) from all industries per dollar of output from farms. plus plus plus plus 22 1.11 (1.11 dollars 0.74 (0.74 dollars 0.04 (0.04 dollars 0.13 (0.13 dollars 0.01 (0.01 dollars of production from of production from of production from of production from of production from Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 2016-07-23 Questions? Joe St. Lawrence Environment Accounts and Statistics | Comptes et statistique de l'environnement R.H. Coats Building | Immeuble R.-H.-Coats / Floor | Étage 25 M Statistics Canada | 100 Tunney's Pasture Driveway, Ottawa ON K1A 0T6 Statistique Canada | 100, promenade Tunney's Pasture, Ottawa ON K1A 0T6 Joe.St.Lawrence@statcan.gc.ca Telephone | Téléphone 613-951-7709 Facsimile | Télécopieur 613-951-0634 Government of Canada | Gouvernement du Canada 23 Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 2016-07-23