Avian Flu Pandemic
Preparedness at the
University of West Florida
Jim Hurd, Student Affairs
Peter Robinson,
Administrative Affairs
Some History
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Pandemic: An infectious disease epidemic that
affects people worldwide or over an extensive
geographical area.
There were three influenza pandemics in the 20th
Century.
Recipe for a Pandemic
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Condition One
• –Novel virus
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•Condition Two
• Crosses species
• Humans, pigs, tigers, cats
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•Condition Three
• Efficient, persistent human-to-human
transmission
• Reassortment
• Mutation
New Influenza Subtypes
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H3N2
• 1968
• Hong Kong Flu
• 34,000 US deaths
H1N1
• 1918
• Spanish Flu
• >500,000 US deaths
New Influenza Subtypes
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H5N1
• 2003
• Avian Flu *
• Worldwide, 98 deaths out of 177 confirmed
infections as of 3-13-06
Susceptible Human Population
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Humans have no pre-existing immunity to novel
strains of influenza.
Every time the virus enters a new host, the
potential for mutations is present.
Total
Country
cases
deaths
Cambodia
4
4
China
15
10
Indonesia
29
22
Iraq
2
2
Thailand
22
14
Turkey
12
4
Viet Nam
93
42
Total
177
98
WHO confirmed cases of H5N1 as of 3-13-06
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“No disease the world has ever known
even remotely resembles the great
influenza epidemic of 1918. Presumed to
have begun when sick farm animals
infected soldiers in Kansas, spreading
and mutating into a lethal strain as
troops carried it to Europe, it exploded
across the world with unequaled ferocity
and speed. It killed more people in
twenty weeks than AIDS has killed in
twenty years; it killed more people in a
year than the plagues of the Middle Ages
killed in a century. Victims bled from the
ears and nose, turned blue from lack of
oxygen, suffered aches that felt like
bones being broken, and died. In the
United States, where bodies were
stacked without coffins on trucks, nearly
seven times as many people died of
influenza as in the First World War.”
Historical Facts - 1918
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Death Toll Worldwide: 40 - 100 Million
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Death Toll US: 500,000
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Normal Season Flu Death Toll: 36,000
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Most Susceptible Population Age: 15-34
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Number of Flu-Orphans in NYC: 21,000
Historical Facts
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1957 Asian Flu -- US Deaths 69,800
1968 Hong Kong Flu – US Deaths 34,000
Pandemic Flu Scares:
1976 Swine Flu
1977 Russian Flu
1997 -1999 Avian Flu
Non-Flu Scare: SARS Multi-Country Outbreak
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“Let me be clear. It is
only a matter of time
before we discover
H5N1 in America. The
migration patterns of
the wild fowl that
carry the virus make
its appearance here
almost inevitable.”
Secretary Michael
Leavitt, HHS
13 March 2006
Current Situation -- Avian Flu:
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2003-2006 Outbreaks in Cambodia, China,
Indonesia, Japan, Laos, South Korea, Thailand,
Vietnam, Europe, Southwest Asia and Africa
Bird to Human transmission still very rare
Human to Human transmission –one WHO
confirmed case
World Health Organization
Pandemic Alert Rating
Florida Department of Health
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Once the pandemic takes hold, we have to
assume that there will be little to No Help from
the national or state level – not just for days, but
for weeks, and perhaps months.
We have to assume that every county and every
community will be pretty much on its own in an
influenza pandemic.
County Health Department will have ICS Lead.
Department of Health
Planning Assumptions

Establish realistic goals based on experience and
discussion. Planning is based on:
• The historical record
• Rapid world-wide spread – Carnegie Mellon U
• Health care systems overload
• Medical supplies inadequate – SNS Mock
Activation
• Economic and social disruption
• Short window for critical decision making
• Influenza will spread quickly in a community.
0.01%-1% attack rate in one week.
• 1918 influenza crossed U.S. in 3-4 weeks.
Starting Point
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Background work in progress
Establish a Planning Task Force to ensure all
areas represented in the planning process
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Identify essential functions and personnel
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Articulate duties and delegate responsibilities
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Educate campus about pandemic flu and our plan
Issues
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Classes
Student absenteeism
Alternate methods for completing course work –
ITS?
Tuition refunds
Traveling Faculty and Students
Resident and International students
Athletic events - on campus and away games
Issues
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Public events – FOG, high school dances,
weddings in conference center
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Food supplies – Chartwells
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Security
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Research
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Maintenance
Issues
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Admissions
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Financial Aid
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Procurement
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Insurance
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Payroll
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Communications – external & internal
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Recovery Plan
Taskforce Functional Representation
Per ACHA Planning Recommendations
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Academic Affairs
• International Programs
• Academic Activities
• Research
• Enrollment Services
Taskforce Functional Representation
Per ACHA Planning Recommendations
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Administrative Affairs
• Business & Auxiliary Services
• Financial Services
• Procurement & Contracts
• Facilities Management
• Police Department
• Environmental Health and Safety
Taskforce Functional Representation
Per ACHA Planning Recommendations
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Student Affairs
• Student Health Services
• Housing and Residence Life
• SGA
Taskforce Functional Representation
Per ACHA Planning Recommendations
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President’s Division
• Marketing Communications
• Human Resources
• ITS