決策模式第一次作業
指導教授：楊棠堯博士
班級：碩專資管一甲
學號：NA090008 沈憶婷
NA090014 陳憲治
NA090016 蔡汶娣
一、需求分析：
問題定義
Kayo Computer ,informs you that this model of Kayo computer will be discontinued after next year and so any
one-time fee that might be paid TCI must be justified based on next years sales alone. She has asked you to
help her evaluate certain economic and legal issues as part of her financial plan for the next year.
The variable assembly cost of the Kayo personal computer is $450 each with an annual fixed cost of
$1500000.Kayo sells the assembled computer for $1000 each.
Outside PCB manufacturer:
Apex Manufacturing.
The one year contract stipulates that Kayo pays $200 per board to Apex for up to 2000 PCBs.If the annual
order quantity exceeds 2000 PCBs.If the annual order quantity exceeds 2000 PCBs ,then Apex is obligated to
give a discount of $40 per board for then portion beyond 2000,thus selling them at $160
TCI Manufacturing
That offers a lower price of 120 per PCB but asks a one time payment of 1000000 as a nonrefundable
design and engineering fee.Kayo's engineers have determined that Kayo may use PCBs from either of the two
manufactures or from both in any mixture without any manufacturing cost or compatibility problems
1. Build a spreadsheet model that captures the profitability of the kayo personal computer for next year. As a
start, assume that 5000 computers can be sold next year and only 1000 of the PCBs are purchased from
Apex.
2. If total sales were 5000 units,how many PCBs would you recommend Kayo buy from Apex and how many
from TCI maximize next year’s profits
二、概念分析
1. 黑箱(Black box)
(1). 外生變數（自變數）：
決策變數(Decision variables)：Apex 與 TCI 數量。
參數(Parameters)：
Apex Parameters
PCB Var Cost up to 2000
$200
PCB Var Cost above to 2000
$160
TCI Parameters
PCB var Cost
$120
Fixed Engr Fee
$100,000
Kayo Parameters
Assembly Cost
$450
Assebly Fixed Cost
$1,500,000
Selling price
$1,000
Unit Sales
$5,000
(2). 內生變數（依變數）：
結果變數(Consequence variables)：
Variables
PCB From Apex
PCB From TCI
績效衡量(Performance measure)：Apex 與 TCI 數量產生最大利潤。
2. 結構化模式(Structural model)
最大獲利
委外廠商
限制
委外廠商成本
委外廠商數量
委外廠商
三、邏輯設計
1、數學模式：(Mathematics model)
最大投資報酬率= Total revenue-(Kyao Cost+Apex Cost+TCI Cost)
條件限制:
(1) Sales Qty:5000 ，Apex Qty:1000 ，TCI Qty:4000
(2) Apex Qty > 2000 ，Price:200
Apex Qty < 2000 ，Price:160
(3)TCI Payment 100000 ，Price:120
2、試算模式(Spreadsheet model)
步驟一：把上述數據資料填入試算表
Q1
Q2
Apex Qty
Apex PCB cost
TCI PCB Cost
Kayo Cost
Total cost
Profit
$0
$0
$700,000
$3,750,000
$4,450,000
$550,000
$500
$100,000
$640,000
$3,750,000
$4,490,000
$510,000
$1,000
$200,000
$580,000
$3,750,000
$4,530,000
$470,000
計算結果
1. Apex Qty:1000
Profit:470000
2. Apex Qty:0，TCI Qty:5000
Max Profit:550000
$1,500
$300,000
$520,000
$3,750,000
$4,570,000
$430,000
$2,000
$400,000
$460,000
$3,750,000
$4,610,000
$390,000
$2,500
$480,000
$400,000
$3,750,000
$4,630,000
$370,000
$3,000
$560,000
$340,000
$3,750,000
$4,650,000
$350,000
$3,500
$640,000
$280,000
$3,750,000
$4,670,000
$330,000
$4,000
$720,000
$220,000
$3,750,000
$4,690,000
$310,000
$4,500
$800,000
$160,000
$3,750,000
$4,710,000
$290,000
$5,000
$880,000
$0
$3,750,000
$4,630,000
$370,000