Food and Forestry:
Global change and global challenges
GCTE Keynote Address
LINKS BETWEEN SCIENCE AND POLICY MAKING
by
Jeffrey B. Tschirley and David Norse
Requirements for policy relevant science:
Definition of the chain (filiere) of linkages
Matrix analysis to target key policy areas
and opportunities
Early and direct links (collaborative partnerships)
with policy research, analysis and formulation
specialists
GTOS Conceptual framework
ANTHROPOGENIC
DRIVERS
Land Use/
Land Cover
Change
Atmospheric
Composition
Change
Climate Change
Ecosystem
Structure
Ecosystem
Function
ECOSYSTEM
CHANGES
Wood & Fibre
RESOURCE &
PRODUCT
AVAILABILITY
Food
Water
Genes, Species,
Habitats
Air
Trans Boundary Air
Pollution
Resource Supply
Constraints
Land Degradation
& Desertification
Pollution & Competition
in Shared Waterbasins
Loss of
Biodiversity
Costal Zone
Pollution
GLOBAL CHANGE & SUSTAINABILITY ISSUES
GTOS planning group expert 1996
Data and information pyramid
INFORMATION
Global
policy
formulation
National
policy
planning
Research and
modelling
DATA
Operational
decision makers
Scientific
researchers
Data
Subjectivity
volume
decreases increases
GT.Net - A global system of terrestrial observation network
REGIONAL NETWORKS
THEMATIC NETWORK
COASTAL
* ECOLOGY
BIODIVERSITY
* GLACIERS
* PERMAFROST
* HYDROLOGY
* ESTABISHED
OR IN PROGRESS
Global demonstration projects
•Net primary productivity
•Terrestrial carbon initiative
•Biodiversity richness study
•Soil decomposition / biodiversity
The global observation hierarchy
1. Large-area experiments
2. Long-term research centres
3. Field stations
4. Periodic, unstaffed sample sites
5. Frequent low resolution remote sensing
Widening the arguments for
research and policy links:
•Where science fits in a policy context
•Components of policy analysis implementation
•Principles for policy relevant science
•Closer alignment with the policy formulation processes
Science in a policy context
Addressing questions such as:
- In what timeframe and spatial scale will global changes
occur? Short or long-term?
- Will it be global or regional in terms of physical and socioeconomic impacts?
- What are the levels of uncertainty regarding the time scale
or geographic impact?
Factors inhibiting the use of science in
policy formulation:
•Those primarily responsible for causing global
change may not suffer most from its impacts
•Misconceptions about the nature of natural resource
management (NRM) problems.
•Tendency to accept public information about
environmental risks at face value.
Components of policy analysis and
implementation:
problem identification;
strategy formulation;
selection of policy options;
policy implementation;
setting of regulatory standards;
monitoring and evaluation.
Problem identification:
problems that are global in scale
problems that are global in scope (and in the future may be
global in scale)
Strategy formulation
Summary of green-house gas emissions and characteristics.
(1) ppmv and emission in Gt; (2) ppbv and emission in Mt;
(3) ppbv and emission in Kt;
(4) pptv; (5) weighted average of the CFCs, excluding the ones that have been phased out;
(6) Global warming potential, i.e. the warming potential relative to CO2 over a 100 year period
Selection of Policy Options
More selection of policy options
Principles for Policy Relevant Science
Correct identification and definition of the issues
 Specification of the form and timeframe in which the
information is needed
 Involvement of several Ministries or policy bodies
 No single organization can command the data, information,
expertise or finance for path-finding global research
 Strategic geographical participation of scientists and institutions
Full disciplinary and analytical integration;
Transparency of data, method, and presentation; documentation
of meta data;
An open peer review process and clarification of issues on which
there is not yet broad consensus;
Sensitivity analysis of the scientific uncertainties and their spatial
and temporal impacts;
Clear synthesis and presentation of the scientific issues and
response options.
More elements for success:
•break traditional molds
•build new collaborative, cross-disciplinary partnerships
Biodiversity Relationships with Scale
Scale
Landscape /
Region
Community /
Landscape
Species (presence/absence)
Continent/Globe
Biodiversity-Measure
Cause
Species Richness, life form Climate ave., extremes
Gamma diversity,
Community dominants
Alpha diversity,
beta diversity,
richness, evenness
Terrain, soils,
disturbance
Biological factors
(e.g., herbivory),
nutrients
Species Abundance
“The various aspects of abundance (there are a plethora
of terms and indices) are often correlated with one
another, but they are not interchangeable, making it
difficult to compare information gathered in different
ways or to select appropriate conservation priorities. A
method for translating abundance information between
different measures is badly needed.”
(Kunin 1998)
Scaling NPP, ecosystem metabolism
and biodiversity relationships
From plots to:
communities to:
landscapes to:
lifeforms to:
regions/continents
Relating biodiversity measures to these
hierarchial levels and the different controls
that occur at each scale.
Value relationships with scale
Scale
Continent/Globe
Landscape / Region
Community / Landscape
Biodiversity/NPP Values/Services
Climate moderation, CO2
reduction, trace gas reduction
Increased precipitation, reduced temp.
extremes, water quality/quantity
improvement, erosion control, flood
reduction
Production of fiber, grains, meat,
aesthetics, pollination, soil
fertility, reduced soil loss, improved
quality of life, and many more!
HadCM2 Ensemble Experiment- 2050s
HadCM3GGa1 Experiment - 2050s
Framework for sustainability analysis
PRESSURE
STATE
RESPONSE
Resource assessment
Impact analysis
Technical intervention
•Land use change
•High input cropping
•Livestock operations
•Watershed degradation, biodiversity loss
•Depletion of micro organisms
•Groundwater contamination, air pollution
•Re-vegetation, conservation biology
•Mixed cropping, integrated plant nutrition
•De-stocking, rotation systems
SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS COMPONENTS
ADJUSTMENTS TO PRESSURES:
•Incentives (e.g. payments, taxes)
•Training
•Technology development
•Participatory mechanism
•Regulatory action
•Codes of conduct
TRADEOFFS:
•Sensitivity analysis
•Multicriteria analysis
•Risk assessment
•Valuation
•Opportunity costs
•Financial risk
•Direct / In-direct costs
•Income distribution
•Land reform
•Access to capital
•Food quality
•Management capacity
•Natural resource endowments
•Agro-ecological resilience
•Production system diversity
•Population supporting capacity
ECONOMIC
SOCIAL
ENVIRONMENTAL
Progression of development for scientific fields
INDIVIDUAL AND DISCIPLINE PRODUCTIVITY
Stage
YOUNG
Types of
studies
Descriptive
Characteristics of
the data
Few datasets,
idiosyncratic format,
individually designed
Mode of
communication
among
researches
Personal and
individual
Logistics
Little communication
communication within single
disciplines
Relevance to
social
Questions
“Esoteric”
obscure
Technological tools,
textbooks
MATURING
Process-oriented
Limited use of
database technology
Electronic
communication with
personal contact
required
Formal communications
More easily
fundable,
compelling
Courses
Graduate programs
MATURE
Predictive
Linked, harmonized,
emulative knowledge base
with semantic connectivity to
many datasets
Multiple
communication
modes, discussion
about scientific
questions
Jointly funded programs
Central
Adapted from Nalini. In Press.