Nicola Tromans, Dr Julie Jefferies and Eva Natamba
Fertility Analysis Unit, ONS Centre for Demography
Dr Paul Norman
School of Geography, University of Leeds
Paul’s research has been funded by the ESRC's Understanding
Population Trends and Processes programme (RES-163-25-0032)

Outline
1. National trends in fertility since 1986
2. Have these same trends occurred by region?
3. Fertility trends at LA level
4. Relationship between TFR and age patterns of fertility (LA level)
5. Insight into fertility trends within individual LAs
• population subgroups which may influence fertility

Total Fertility Rate, 1986-2007
England and Wales
1.70
1.65
1.60
1.55
1.50
1.45
1.95
1.90
1.85
1.80
1.75

How have age patterns of fertility changed since 1986?
(England and Wales)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Under 20 20-24 25-29
Age
30-34
1986
2001
2007
35-39 40 and over

Further changes in fertility trends since 1986
(England and Wales)
• Increased % of births occurring outside marriage
• 21 per cent of births in 1986
• 44 per cent of births in 2007
• Increased % of births to women born outside the UK
• 12 per cent of births in 1986
• 23 per cent of births in 2007

Do regional TFR trends differ from national trends?
TFR pattern for E&W evident for each region - All regions experience a record low TFR in either 2001 or 2002
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
Regional TFRs
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
England and Wales
20
06

Regional Trends - TFR
Regions exhibiting the highest and lowest TFRs have varied
– Highest TFR
• 1986-1993 North West, West Midlands, Wales
• 1994-2006 West Midlands (1.96 in 2006)
– Lowest TFR
• 1986-1990 London, North East, South East
• 1990-1993 London
• 1994-2005 North East
• 2006 North East and South West (1.79)

Regional Trends – most fertile age group
• In 1986, the most fertile age group in all regions was 25-29
• By 2006 the most fertile age group increased to 30-34 in the East and all southern regions.
• fertility postponement in the south

Does the TFR trend at local authority level correspond with the national trend?
Distribution of local authority TFRs 1986, 2001, 2006
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
1986 2001 2006

Which local authorities have the highest TFRs?
Number of times LA appeared in top 10 between 1986 and 2006 (inclusive)
Newham
Blackburn with Darwen UA
21
21
Luton UA
Bradford
Hackney and City of London
Oldham
Tower Hamlets
Rochdale
Pendle
Hyndburn
12
9
9
19
19
14
14
13

Which local authorities have the lowest TFRs?
Number of times LA appeared in bottom 10 between 1986 and 2006 (inclusive)
Cambridge 21
Durham
Oxford
21
20
Kensington and Chelsea
Camden
Hammersmith and Fulham
Brighton and Hove UA
Exeter
Bournemouth UA
Berwick-Upon-Tweed
19
16
13
12
12
7
6

How many local authorities experience older age patterns of fertility in 2006?
Peak age of fertility
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
Number of local authorities
1986 2001 2006
15 23 12
351 237 192
8
0
114
0
169
1 (Islington)

Relationship between TFR and age patterns of fertility (local authority level)
Do areas where the TFR is low have lower fertility at all ages when compared with areas where the TFR is high?

Mean ASFRs in LAs with highest TFR and LAs with lowest TFRs 2006
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Under
20
20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40 and
Age over
Low TFR 2006 High TFR 2006
Compared 50 LAs with lowest TFR and 50 LAs with highest TFR

TFR trends in selected local authorities
2.4
2.2
2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Boston Exeter E&W Newham Blackburn With Darwen UA Cambridge

Cambridge – age patterns of fertility
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Under 20 20-24
1986
25-29
Age
30-34 35-39 40 and over
2006
TFR
Cambridge
East (Region)
1986
1.35
1.75
2001
1.20
1.67
2006
1.39
1.87

Cambridge – Students
• Presence of HE institutions likely to affect fertility
• Students – lower fertility while studying
• Graduates – tend to enter motherhood later
• More noticeable where % of students in population is high

Cambridge - births to migrants
• 41% of births in 2006 were to mothers born outside UK
• England and Wales 22%
• Diverse range of countries including
– 13% EU countries
– 5% USA, Canada, Australia or New Zealand

How do international migrants affect fertility levels?
• No clear cut relationship between %births to non-UK born mothers and level of fertility in an area
– considerable variation in fertility levels of women from different countries of birth
• Birth registration does not use detailed definition of
‘usual residence’
• Short term migrants not included in population estimates
– 12 month definition of ‘usual residence’

Key findings – fertility patterns since 1986
1. National TFR patterns are reflected at the regional level - not always mirrored at LA level
2. In 1986, all regions experienced peak fertility at ages
25-29. By 2006 the south had increased to 30-34
3. LAs with relatively high TFRs display much higher fertility at younger reproductive ages
4. LAs with relatively low TFRs have an older age pattern for childbearing
5. Population subgroups such as students, graduates and migrants can impact upon period fertility in LAs.