Ethnic Group Labour Force Projections for London
Baljit Bains
BSPS Conference, St Andrews
11 September 2007
Data Management and Analysis
Outline
• Brief Background to EGPP
– Ethnic Majority
– Borough Ethnic composition
– Economically active composition
• EA Rates by ethnic group, sex
– 1991 and 2001
• Discussion: Methodology
Data Management and Analysis
Background
•
•
•
•
•
Annual rounds of EGPP
10 ethnic groups (aggregations of 16 Census categories)
33 London boroughs, full age and gender
2001 to 2026
Constrained to GLA demographic projections (London Plan)
Data Management and Analysis
Projection categories
Data Management and Analysis
White
White British
White Irish
White Other
Black Caribbean
Black Caribbean
Black African
Black African
Black Other
Black Other
Mixed White and Black Caribbean
Mixed White and Black African
Indian
Indian
Pakistani
Pakistani
Bangladeshi
Bangladeshi
Other Asian
Other Asian
Mixed White and Asian
Chinese
Chinese
Other
Other Ethnic Group
Mixed White and other groups
An Ethnic Majority in London by……
80.0
71.1
70.0
White
60.7
60.0
%
50.0
40.0
BAME
30.0
39.3
28.9
20.0
10.0
0.0
2001
2006
2011
2016
Year
Data Management and Analysis
2021
2026
50%+ London Boroughs
80.0
75.0
Newham
70.0
%
65.0
60.0
Brent
Harrow
Redbridge
55.0
Tower Hamlets
Croydon
Hounslow
50.0
Ealing
45.0
40.0
2001
2006
2011
2016
Year
Data Management and Analysis
2021
2026
Map
Data Management and Analysis
Components of Change 1
100.0
15.5
BAME
22.9
White
80.0
60.0
%
86.5
40.0
84.5
77.1
20.0
13.5
0.0
Births
Data Management and Analysis
Deaths
Natural Change
Components of Change 2
250,000
Births
Deaths
200,000
Net Migration
150,000
100,000
-150,000
Data Management and Analysis
Ot h
er
Chi
nes
e
Ot h
er A
sian
Ban
gla
des
hi
Pak
ist a
ni
-100,000
Ind
ian
Bla
ck C
arib
bea
n
-50,000
Bla
ck O
t he
r
0
Bla
ck A
f ric
an
Population
50,000
Changes in age structure
60.0
2026
15 - 19 age group
50%
2006
2026
60 - 64 age group
37.6%
50.0
2026
25 - 29 age group
30.2%
%
40.0
30.0
2016
2026
2006
15 - 19 age group
42.1%
2006
25 - 29 age group
30.2%
20.0
2006
60 - 64 age group
21.5%
10.0
0.0
0- 4
5- 9
10 - 14 15 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 29 30 - 34 35 - 39 40 - 44 45 - 49 50 - 54 55 - 59 60 - 64 65 - 69 70 - 74 75 - 79 80 - 84 85 - 89
Age-group
Data Management and Analysis
90+
Economically Active population: Changes in ethnic
composition, 2006-2026
White
27.9
Black African
14.2
Other
14.0
Indian
12.8
Bangladeshi
6.7
Other Asian
6.3
Pakistani
5.9
Black Other
5.0
Chinese
4.2
Black Caribbean
2.9
0
Data Management and Analysis
5
10
%
15
20
25
30
Ethnic Group Labour Force Projections
• Consideration when preparing methodology
–
–
–
–
•
Static assumptions
Postponement of child-bearing
Expansion of Higher education and increased participation
Other settlement/stability issues
Age/Cohort considerations
– Where to set the bar?
Data Management and Analysis
EA rates 1991 cf 2001
100
90
80
70
%
60
50
40
White 1991
White 2001
Black Caribbean 1991
Black Caribbean 2001
30
20
10
0
16-19
Data Management and Analysis
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
EA rates 1991 cf 2001
100
90
80
70
%
60
50
40
Black African 1991
Black African 2001
Black Other 1991
Black Other 2001
Indian 1991
Indian 2001
Other Asian 1991
Other Asian 2001
Chinese 1991
Chinese 2001
Other 1991
Other 2001
30
20
10
0
16-19
Data Management and Analysis
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
EA rates 1991 cf 2001
100
90
Pakistani 1991
Pakistani 2001
Bangladeshi 1991
Bangladeshi 2001
80
70
%
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
16-19
Data Management and Analysis
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
EA rates 1991 cf 2001
100
90
80
70
%
60
50
40
Indian 1991
30
Indian 2001
Chinese 1991
20
Chinese 2001
10
0
16-19
20-24
Data Management and Analysis
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
Capacity
White
16-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
-12.38
-4.77
-3.04
-1.74
-1.62
-1.44
-1.40
-1.82
-1.89
-1.87
Black
Caribbean Black African
10.12
-1.39
-2.75
-10.95
-12.46
-12.80
-11.93
-14.41
-14.85
-11.23
Data Management and Analysis
43.97
22.56
12.72
2.71
-1.50
-1.27
-0.91
-4.84
-3.28
11.95
Black Other
Indian
Pakistani
Bangladeshi
Other Asian
Chinese
Other
14.98
4.36
1.29
-5.78
-5.17
0.54
0.26
-1.46
-0.55
-4.62
44.99
12.75
5.64
-0.84
-3.08
1.30
7.82
21.07
35.15
50.08
43.77
36.26
47.66
51.20
53.80
50.89
56.59
58.47
64.52
70.71
41.03
56.50
73.71
74.58
75.21
73.76
71.93
78.81
79.19
66.81
63.63
34.25
12.07
7.56
5.04
8.06
8.26
13.06
26.55
27.91
52.86
29.48
20.35
18.91
8.03
3.66
-0.24
-4.65
-4.61
-1.86
29.29
15.86
9.43
8.88
10.95
11.35
12.31
6.96
7.46
0.48
Discussion: Methodology
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Expect the most change in younger age groups?
Will those with more capacity increase faster?
Future impact of further fertility increases.
Evidence of fertility decline amongst some ethnic groups?
Impacts of birth postponement (is this just White women?)
Impact of social change
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–
–
–
–
Greater education participation
Move away from traditional roles of women
Equal work, equal pay
Changes in extended family relations
Cost of living, cost of child rearing
Data Management and Analysis
Contact
Baljit.Bains@london.gov.uk
020 7983 4613
Data Management and Analysis