Using POPGROUP and the
“Bottom Up” approach - the
Welsh experience
Contents
• Overview of SNPP in Wales
• POPGROUP
• The “Bottom Up” approach
• Issues & Implications
• The future …………….. ?
• Questions
Overview of SNPP in Wales
• History
• 2003-based SNPP
• Consultation
• LA re-organisation - why have SNPP not worked?
POPGROUP
• Part of a group of 3 packages:
– POPGROUP
– HOUSEGROUP
– LABGROUP
- population projections
- household projections
- labour market projections
• Developed by Cathie Marsh Centre for Census and Survey
Research (CCSR) at the University of Manchester
• MS Excel based
The “Bottom Up” approach
• Wales Sub-national Population Projections Working Group
- WASPP
– Membership
– Aims and objectives
• To constrain or not constrain - that is the question?
• New methodology
Issues & Implications
• Data:
– Time periods
– Availability
• Implications
– Relationship to National Population Projections
– Is one wrong OR are they just different?
– How to deal with differences?
– Dissemination & Usage
The Future…...
• Publication
– Summer 2008
– Documentation
• Events
– Launch event
– Presentations/ workshops
• Data sharing
– Hopes
– Restrictions
QUESTIONS ?
Emma Arnell-Smith
Welsh Assembly Government
Emma.Arnell-Smith@Wales.gsi.gov.uk