Project Management Technique
By:
Penny Leahy
Jackie Holohan
• Scope the Model
– Defining the Problem, Objectives
• Baseline Current Process
– Data Collection
• Investigate Model Concept
– Inputs, Assumptions, Entity Flow
• Create the model
– Locations, Entities, Path Networks,
Processing
• Control & Verify Model Results
– Sample Problem to Solve
– Verification & Validation
Scope the Model
Today projects developed in Information Technology are often
 Over Budget
 Not Delivered on
Time
Project Leaders and Managers are
not properly evaluating
time requirements and costs for
projects before making commitments
to customers or upper management.
Develop a tool to be used by project leaders, team members
and upper management to estimate the amount of time & cost
to complete a project in Information Technology.
Current Process
Project Management Technique (PMT) Process Flow
C
Control
C
Checkpoint 5
I
Create
Checkpoint 4
B
Investigate
Checkpoint 3
Baseline
Checkpoint 2
S
Checkpoint 1
Scope
• Project Leaders and team members complete project
tasks at each phase.
• Checkpoint review meetings are held after each phase to
ensure the project is on the right track.
• Checkpoint 5 represents project completion.
Current Process - Project Tasks
Scope
Mission/Problem Statement
Evaluate Alternatives/Risk Assessment
Work/Resource Mangement
Baseline
Cost/Benefit Analysis
QualityPlan /Customer Needs
* Project Management
* Architecture/Requirements
* Process Maps (As Is)
* Training (Project Team)
* Architecture/Requirements
Resources/Cost Benefit/Schedule Status
Control
* Project Management
Finalize Development/Testing
Training (User Groups)
* Peer Reviews
Contingency Plans
Team Celebration
Create
* Project Mangement
Development of Solution
* Test Scenarios
* Support Plan
* Peer Reviews
Prototype
Investigate
* Project Mangement
* Process Maps (To Be)
Ranking of Defects/Design Soln
* Support Plan
* Architecture/Requirements
* Test Scenarios
* Peer Reviews
Current Process - Data Collection
Time data was collected for each of the project tasks
through surveying 18 project leaders.
Based on your team's experience level:
 How long did it take to complete each project
task most of the time?
 What is the maximum time to complete each
project task?
 What is the minimum time to complete each
project task?
Sample Data
Phase
Scope
Task
Mode Min
MAX
MIN
Max
1 Mission/Problem Statement
2
1
3
2 Evaluate Alternatives/Risk Assessment
4
2
6
3 Cost/Benefit Analysis
3
1
4.5
4 Work/Resource Mangement
8
4.5
10
5 QualityPlan /Customer Needs
5
3
7
6 Architecture/Requirements
8
6
10
16
8
24
7 Training (Project Team)
MODE
Triangular Distribution
Service Times
Investigate - Model Inputs
An Input Factor is used to specify what type of project you’d like
to analyze using the simulation model.
Complexity
low
medium
high
People
1-2
3-4
5-6
Name
Small Project
Medium Project
Large Project
Duration
&
Complexity
Rating
Small Project
Medium Project
Large Project
1
2
3
Rating
Experience Level
Years using PMT
3
2
1
Low
Medium
High
0-1
2-5
>5
Team Experience Level
Rating
Low Medium High
3
2
1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Input Factor = Numerical Value 1-9
Investigate - Assumptions
 There is a 15 minute break between project tasks.
 There will be no "side-projects".
 The work week is 40 hours per week.
 The model is based on a 50 week-year , working 5 days per
week.
 The frequency of the projects can be adjusted as needed by
the user.
 The model output is in time, but can easily be converted
to cost.
 This service time for the checkpoint meeting is fit as a
triangular distribution model {t(.5,1,1.5)}.
Investigate - Entity Flow
S.3
S.4
S.5
C.1, C.2
S.2
ENTER
1
C.3, C.4,
C.1
2
C.3, C.4
Scope
1
B.1
Baseline
2
I.1
Investigate
3
S.1
C.5, C.1,
C.6, C.7
3
C.3
C.6, C.5,
C.7
4
C.3
Cr.1
Create
4
Cr.2
Co.1
C.2, C.7
Co.2
EXIT
Control
Co.3
Common
Tasks:
Common
Tasks:
C.1
C.2
C.1 C.2 C.3C.3C.4C.4C.5C.5C.6C.6
C.7C.7
Checkpoint
Checkpoint
Reviews::
Reviews
Investigate - Entity Flow in ProModel
Locations - Project Tasks
Entity - Project team member(s)
Create the Model
Locations
• Each project task set up
with triangular service
times.
Entity
• 1 project team member or
a group of team
members.
Path Networks
• Paths set up from project
task to the next project
task (serial processing).
Processing
• If…then…else statements
set up to handle input
factor.
Arrivals
• Enter constant number of projects to
complete per model run.
Control - Sample Problem
A new Information Technology enhancement has been
requested by one of the key customers. The project entails
changing the quoting and ordering software package to
include one of the new products just released.
The IT project manager has several options in planning for
this enhancement request.
The maximum amount of time allowed to complete this
project is 6 months.
Control - Sample Problem
Scope down the request to be a series of 3 small projects with
low experience levels on the team. New employees cost
$40,000 per person year. The team only would have 2 people
on the team.
Deliver the request as 1 medium project using moderately
experienced people on the team. The team would have 3
people on the team. Moderately experienced people cost
$65,000 per person year.
Combine the enhancement with the large project currently in
progress with highly experienced personnel. These
employees cost $90,000 per person year. This project will have
5 people on the team.
Control - Sample Problem Results
 No significant difference between Scenario 1 and Scenario 2.
(T-test performed; p-value = .83)
 Scenario 3 costs about twice as much ($26K more) AND will
take 8 months; BUT the business will gain market share and
sales.
Recommendations
 If the benefit gained exceeds $26K, Scenario 3 is
recommended if the customer is willing to wait
an extra 2 months.
 If the customer is not willing to wait an extra 2 months for the
extra benefits, either Scenario 1 or Scenario 2 are
recommended.
Control - Validate Model
Verification
Used to remove program bugs from the model. 2 bugs
found through structured walk through exercise.
 A task was not connected in path network; no output.
 Output should be based on hours; it gave minutes.
Validation
• 3 projects validated
• T-test completed showing 2 projects were represented
well by the model.
• 1 project used wrong input factor; model was not
represented of real world.
Conclusion
Simulation models can be used to predict the
time and cost of projects as long as the data
used to create the model is based on the
application being studied.
• Based on the data gathered from a GE IT department, the
output was validated.
• In some instances, the output may vary from actual data
gathered from the population because of
 Assignment of an incorrect input factor
• Model can be customized for other applications.