Climate History Leading up to
2002 Drought
Colorado Climate Center
Roger Pielke, Sr, Director and Nolan Doesken, Research Associate
Prepared by Odie Bliss & Tara Green
http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu
Climate Prediction



Is there skill?
What spatial scales are required?
What is climate?
COLORADO NEEDS





What would be the impact today of
historical droughts?
What would be the impact today of paleodroughts?
What if the 2001-2002 dry, warm weather
reoccurred for 2002-2003?
How can we make Colorado more resilient
to droughts?
What are the definitions of the multidimensional character of droughts.
EXAMPLES OF DROUGHTS




Snow does not fall in the mountains
until late January
It is dry in April-July, but soaking rains
occur in eastern Colorado in August
The weather of 2001-2002 repeats for
the next five years
Colorado’s mountains have 90% of
average snow for the next 20 years.
Vulnerability Assessment

A vulnerability assessment of risk to
climate and other environmental stress
is, therefore, more appropriate as
guides to Policy Makers, than trying to
predict only a subset of possible future
climate conditions.
Websites

Pielke Research Group Web site
– http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu

Colorado Climate Center Web site
– http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu
Akron 4E
Monthly Accumulated Precipitation
September 1 2001 - November 30 2002
Compared to Wettest and Driest for all years (1905-2002)
25.00
Accum. Min
Accum Max.
Sept. 1 2001 - Aug. 31 2002
15.00
10.00
5.00
Months
ov
N
ct
O
Se
pt
Au
g
Ju
l
Ju
n
M
ay
Ap
r
M
ar
Fe
b
Ja
n
ec
D
ov
N
O
ct
0.00
Se
p
Precipitation (inches)
20.00
Fort Collins Monthly Accumulated Precipitation
September 1 2001 - November 30 2002 Compared to
Wettest and Driest for all years (1905-2002)
Precipitation (inches)
Max Year 1922-23
Min Year 1953-54
2001-2002)
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
p
ct ov ec an eb ar pr ay un
e
O N D
A M
J
M
J
S
F
Months
l
t
t
v
Ju Aug ep Oc No
S
Image from Allen and Breshears, 1998, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 95, pp. 14839-14842
From Edwards & McKee, 1997: Climo. Report 97-2
Figure courtesy of J.R. Hannamean
Figure courtesy of Jeff Lukas
Source: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/temperature/
Total Precipitation Analysis
September 2001 – August 2002 Ranking by Station
Year of
Record
Rank
Amount of Precipitation
Grand Lake 1 NW
1940-2002
1
12.55
Taylor Park
1941-2002
1
10.42
Grand Junction WSO A
1892-2002
8
5.54
Meeker
1891-2002
7
10.37
Montrose No. 2
1896-2002
3
5.83
Mesa Verde NP
1923-2002
1
7.43
Del Norte 2 E
1940-2002
1
3.19
Center 4 SSW
1891-2002
1
2.44
Colorado Springs WSO
1892-2002
1
6.5
Pueblo WSO
1891-2002
1
3.8
Rocky Ford 2 SE
1892-2002
1
3.62
Cheyenne Wells
1897-2002
4
9.16
Akron 4 E
1905-2002
1
9.4
Leroy 7 WSW
1891-2002
3
10.58
Kassler
1899-2002
8
12.56
Climatic Stations
Figure 2. Geographic anomalies in temperature
trends in eastern Colorado. from Pielke et al.,
2002, "Problems in evaluating regional and local
trends in temperature: An example from Eastern
Colorado USA", Int. J. Climatol., 22, 421-434.
Water Year 2002
(Oct. 2001-Sept. 2002)
Precipitation % of Average
Klaus Wolter’s Climate Divisions
Temperature Anomaly
June 2002
Temperature Anomaly
July 2002
Temperature Anomaly
August 2002
Fort Collins
All STI Months by Year
Fort Collins
4.00
3.00
2.00
0.00
-1.00
-2.00
-3.00
-4.00
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
STI
1.00
Years
January STI
Feb STI
March STI
Apr STI
May STI
June STI
July STI
Aug STI
Sept STI
Oct STI
Nov STI
Dec STI
18
90
18
95
19
00
19
05
19
10
19
15
19
20
19
25
19
30
19
35
19
40
19
45
19
50
19
55
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
Precip (inches)
Akron 4E
Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1905-2001)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
Year
Year
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
1895
1890
Precipitation (inches)
Altenbern
Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1948-2001)
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
-40
Year
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
1895
1890
Precipitation (inches)
Boulder
Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1893-2001)
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
Year
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
1895
1890
Precipitation (inches)
Canon City
Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1890-2001)
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
Year
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
1895
1890
Precipitation (inches)
Center 4SSW
Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1891-2001)
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
-14
-16
18
90
18
95
19
00
19
05
19
10
19
15
19
20
19
25
19
30
19
35
19
40
19
45
19
50
19
55
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
Precipitation (inches)
Cheesman
Normalized Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1903-2001)
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
Year
Year
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
1895
1890
Precipitation (inches)
Cheyenne Wells
Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1897-2001)
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
Year
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
1895
1890
Precipitation (inches)
Cochetopa Creek
Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1948-2001)
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
Year
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
1895
1890
Precipitation (inches)
Collbran
Accumulative Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1892-2001)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
Year
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
1895
1890
Precipitation (inches)
Colorado Springs
Accumulated Precipitation Deficits
(Average 1892-2001)
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
-80
-90
Year
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
1895
1890
Precipitation (inches)
Del Norte
Accumulated Precipitation Deficits
(Average 1920-2001)
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
Year
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
1895
1890
Precipitation (inches)
Delta
Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1890-2001)
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
Year
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
1895
1890
Precipitation (inches)
Dillion
Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1913-2001)
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
Year
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
1895
1890
Precipitation (inches)
Fort Morgan 2S
Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1890-2001)
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
18
90
18
96
19
02
19
08
19
14
19
20
19
26
19
32
19
38
19
44
19
50
19
56
19
62
19
68
19
74
19
80
19
86
19
92
19
98
Precipitation (inches)
Grand Junction WSO
Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1892-2001)
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
Year
18
90
18
95
19
00
19
05
19
10
19
15
19
20
19
25
19
30
19
35
19
40
19
45
19
50
19
55
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
Precipitation (inches)
Grand Lake 1NW
Accumulated Precipitation Deficits
(Average 1940-2001)
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
Year
18
90
18
95
19
00
19
05
19
10
19
15
19
20
19
25
19
30
19
35
19
40
19
45
19
50
19
55
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
Precipitation (inches)
Holly
Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1894-2001)
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
Year
18
90
18
95
19
00
19
05
19
10
19
15
19
20
19
25
19
30
19
35
19
40
19
45
19
50
19
55
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
Precipitation (inches)
Kassler
Acculmulated Precipitation Deficits
(Average 1899-2001)
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
Year
18
90
18
95
19
00
19
05
19
10
19
15
19
20
19
25
19
30
19
35
19
40
19
45
19
50
19
55
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
Precipitation (inches)
Lamar
Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1890-2001)
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
Year
Year
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
1895
1890
Precipitation (inches)
Las Animas
Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1890-2001)
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
18
90
18
95
19
00
19
05
19
10
19
15
19
20
19
25
19
30
19
35
19
40
19
45
19
50
19
55
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
Precipitation (inches)
Leroy 7WSW
Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1890-2001)
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
Year
18
90
18
95
19
00
19
05
19
10
19
15
19
20
19
25
19
30
19
35
19
40
19
45
19
50
19
55
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
Precipitation (inches)
Manassa
Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
WRCC Data
(Average 1931-2001)
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
Year
18
90
18
95
19
00
19
05
19
10
19
15
19
20
19
25
19
30
19
35
19
40
19
45
19
50
19
55
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
Precipitation (inches)
Meeker No.2
Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1891-2001)
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
Year
Mesa Verde National Park
Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1923-2001)
40.0
35.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0
Year
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
1895
-10.0
1890
Precipitation (inches)
30.0
18
90
18
95
19
00
19
05
19
10
19
15
19
20
19
25
19
30
19
35
19
40
19
45
19
50
19
55
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
Precipitation (inches)
Montrose #2
Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1896-2001)
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
-5.00
-10.00
-15.00
-20.00
Year
Year
1998
1992
1986
1980
1974
1968
1962
1956
1950
1944
1938
1932
1926
1920
1914
1908
1902
1896
1890
Precipitation (inches)
Pueblo WSO AP
Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1890-2001)
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
Year
2000
1996
1992
1988
1984
1980
1976
1972
1968
1964
1960
1956
1952
1948
1944
1940
1936
1932
1928
1924
1920
1916
1912
1898
1894
1890
Precipitation (inches)
Rico
Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
WRCC Data
(Average 1893-2001)
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
18
90
18
95
19
00
19
05
19
10
19
15
19
20
19
25
19
30
19
35
19
40
19
45
19
50
19
55
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
Precipitation (inches)
Rocky Ford
Accumulated Precipitation Deficits
(Average 1890-2001)
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
-10.00
-20.00
-30.00
Year
Year
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
1895
1890
Precipitation (inches)
Silverton
Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1905-2001)
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
18
90
18
95
19
00
19
05
19
10
19
15
19
20
19
25
19
30
19
35
19
40
19
45
19
50
19
55
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
Precipitation (inches)
Spicer 4NE
Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
CCC Data
(Average 1931-2001)
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
Year
18
90
18
95
19
00
19
05
19
10
19
15
19
20
19
25
19
30
19
35
19
40
19
45
19
50
19
55
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
Precipitation (inches)
Taylor Park
Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1941-2001)
CCC Data
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
Year
Year
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
1895
1890
Precipitation (inches)
Trinidad
Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1899-2001)
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
Year
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
1895
1890
Precipitation (inches)
Waterdale
Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1895-2001)
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
-40
18
90
18
95
19
00
19
05
19
10
19
15
19
20
19
25
19
30
19
35
19
40
19
45
19
50
19
55
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
Precipitation (inches)
Westcliffe
Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
WRCC Data
(Average 1933-2001)
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Year
18
90
18
95
19
00
19
05
19
10
19
15
19
20
19
25
19
30
19
35
19
40
19
45
19
50
19
55
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
Precipitation (inches)
Yuma
Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
(Average 1890-2001)
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
Year
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
STI
Fort Collins
January STI
Fort Collins
January STI
2.00
1.50
January STI
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
-2.00
-2.50
-3.00
Years
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
-3
.0
0
19
71
-2
.0
0
-1
.0
0
0.
00
STI
1.
00
2.
00
3.
00
Fort Collins
February STI
Fort Collins
February STI
Feb STI
Years
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
STI
Fort Collins
March STI
Fort Collins
March STI
2.50
2.00
March STI
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
-2.00
-2.50
Years
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
STI
Fort Collins
April STI
Fort Collins - April
Apr STI
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
-2.00
-2.50
Years
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
STI
Fort Collins
May STI
Fort Collins
May STI
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
-1.00
-2.00
-3.00
Years
Fort Collins
June STI
Fort Collins
0.
50
0.
00
-0
.5
0
-1
.0
0
-1
.5
0
-2
.0
0
-2
.5
0
STI
1.
00
1.
50
2.
00
2.
50
June STI
71 972 973 974 975 976 977 978 979 980 981 982 983 984 985 986 987 988 989 990 991 992 993 994 995 996 997 998 999 000 001 002
19
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
Years
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
STI
Fort Collins
July STI
Fort Collins
July STI
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
-1.00
-2.00
-3.00
-4.00
Years
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
STI
Fort Collins
August STI
Fort Collins
Aug STI
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
-2.00
-2.50
Years
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
STI
Fort Collins
September STI
Fort Collins
Sept STI
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
-2.00
Years
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
STI
Fort Collins
October STI
Fort Collins
Oct STI
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
-1.00
-2.00
-3.00
Years
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
STI
Fort Collins
November STI
Fort Collins
Nov STI
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
-2.00
-2.50
Years
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
STI
Fort Collins
December STI
Fort Collins - December
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Dec STI
-1.00
-2.00
-3.00
-4.00
Years