Population
Geography
Chapter 2
Population
• Demographics is the
study of human
population distribution
and migration.
• Key Issues of
Demographics are:
– Food Supply
– Health and life
expectancy
– Status of women
– Migration
People are NOT distributed evenly across the Earth.
Population is clustered in the mid latitude climates and
relatively sparse in the dry and polar climates or the
highlands.
• Distribution- ¾ of the world’s population lives on
only 5% of the land. Very uneven distribution was
intensified in the 20th cent. as population soared. 2/3
of the pop. lives near an ocean or river.
• Carrying capacity-the number of people that can be
supported in an area given the technology of
production.
• Density-the measure of the number of people per
square mile/kilometer, etc.
– Arithmetic density-total number of people
divided by the total land area. It is the most
common statistic given.
– Physiologic density-is the number of people per
unit of arable (farmable) land.
World Population Density
Physiologic Population Density –
number of people per unit area of agriculturally
productive land (takes this map into account).
Physiologic
Population Density
Luxor, Egypt.
Egypt’s arable lands
are along the Nile
River Valley.
Moving away from the
river a few blocks, the
land becomes sandy
and wind-sculpted.
World Population Cartogram
Countries named have at least 50 million
Major Population Concentrations
• East Asia-1/4 of the
world’s population is hereChina with 1.3 billion.
• There are ribbon like
extensions in China along
the Chang and Huang
rivers, but most live on the
east coast.
• Other areas include Japan,
Korea and Vietnam.
• Most people are farmers,
not city dwellers.
Asia
• India has reached
1 billion and rising.
• China imposed 1
child policy in the
1980s and growth rate
dropped from 1.2% to
1% by late 1990s, but
has 1.3 billion.
• East Asia as a whole
has a growth rate of
.9% which is half the
rate of 20 years ago.
Major Population Concentrations
• South Asia-the 2nd major
population cluster.
• Like East Asia there are
finger-like extension of
dense pop. that follows
the Ganges and Indus
rivers.
• There are 1.5 billion in
South Asia and India
recently passed the 1
billion mark.
• Bangladesh (size of Iowa)
with 141 million.
Major Population Concentrations
• Europe-the 3rd in population
with 700 million.
• Europe is very urbanized
with 75% to 90% living in
cities.
• Europe’s population
distribution is not closely
tied to terrain, but more
closely tied to coal fields.
• Population density varies
from the highest in the
Netherlands to very low in
Iceland.
Closely spaced houses in
Amsterdam, Netherlands
Major Population Concentrations
• North America- East Central
US and SE Canada equals ¼ the
size of the smallest Eurasian
concentration.
• Unlike Europe, North America
has large areas of sparsely
populated regions.
• Megalopolis Boston to
Washington, D.C. which
includes New York,
Philadelphia and Boston.
• Other major population
concentrations: Chicago,
Detroit, Cleveland, San
Francisco, Los Angeles and San
Diego.
Skyscrapers of Manhattan
New York
United States Population Distribution
• Demographic
Change is
calculated by
looking at the
original population,
adding births,
subtracting deaths,
adding immigrants
and subtracting
emigrants to equal
total population.
• Or OP = B – D + I –
E = TP
World Population Growth –
Rate of natural increase (does not take
into account immigration and emigration).
Today, the pace of world population
growth is slowing. Where have Total
Fertility Rates (TFRs) fallen below
replacement level and why?
• 80 million people added to the world pop. each year.
• Demographers estimate growth will stabilize in the
21st cent.
• Doubling time-the number of years needed to double
a population-divide the % of increase by 70 to get
doubling time in years.
• Crude death rate-the number of deaths per 1,000 each
year.
• Crude birth rate-the number of births per 1,000 each
year.
• Natural increase (NIR)rate-the % by which a
population grows in a year. Computed by subtracting
the % of CBR-CDR.
• Total Fertility Rate (TFR) the number of children born
to women of childbearing age-usually reported as a
percentage.
• Dependency ratio-the number of people who are too
young or too old to work compared to the number of
people old enough to work.
Crude Birth Rate
Crude Death Rates
Natural Increase
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 2.1 to 2.5 children per
woman is considered “replacement level.”
Infant
Mortality Rate: - the number of
deaths of children under the age of 1, per
thousand of
the general population.
• Maternal mortality ratio is
the greatest health disparity
between the developed and
developing countries.
• The World Health
Organization reports that
600,000 women die each
year from complications of
pregnancy.
• Social, cultural and
economic barriers prevent
women in the developing
countries from receiving
proper health care.
Population Characteristics
• Life Expectancy : The average number of years
an individual can be expected to live, given
current social, economic, and medical
conditions.
• Population under the age of 15 - usually
shown as a percentage of the total
population of a country - dependency ages
• Population over the age of 65 - usually shown
as a percentage of the population.
dependency age
Life
Expectancy : The average number of years an
individual can be expected to live, given current
social, economic, and medical conditions.
Population
under the age of 15 - usually shown
as a percentage of the total population of a country
- dependency age is 0-15
Population Pyramids –
Charts that show the percentages of each age group in the
total population, divided by gender.
For poorer countries, the chart is shaped like a pyramid.
Infant mortality rates are high, life expectancy is shorter.
• Population Pyramidsdisplay a country’s
population in a bar graph
form.
• Each 5 year group with the
youngest 0-4 years old at
the base of the pyramid are
called cohorts.
• Males are shown on the left
side and females are shown
on the right.
• A wide-based pyramid
indicates a country in Stage
2 of the Demographic
transition.
Population Pyramids
Charts that show the percentages of each age group in the
total population, divided by gender.
For wealthier countries, the chart is shaped like a
lopsided vase. Population is aging, TFRs are declining.
• Four Patterns of Population Structure
• Each nation faces different problems due to a large
base with many young or negative growth.
In poorer countries, Infant Mortality Rates
are usually high, which is reflected in the
pyramid shape.
In poorer countries, Life Expectancy is
usually shorter, which is also reflected in the
pyramid shape.
Affect of AIDS on
population pyramid for
South Africa.
Predicted population for
2035, without and with
AIDS.
With AIDS, looks like a
population “chimney.”
AIDS is leaving large numbers of AIDS orphans.
What is the Demographic
Transition?
 The shift from high to low mortality and
fertility through four distinct stages.
 Based on the experience of Western
Europe’s Industrial Age.
 Began by Warren Thompson in 1929.
 Further developed in 1945 by Frank
Notestein
 A sign of socio-economic progress?
The Classic Demographic Transition
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Stage 4
Birth rate
Natural
increase
Death rate
Time
Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.
Stage 1 - High Fluctuating
Reasons
 Birth Rate is high as a result of:
 Lack of family planning
 High Infant Mortality Rate: putting babies in
the 'bank'
 Need for workers in agriculture
 Religious beliefs
 Children as economic assets
 Death Rate is high because of:






High levels of disease
Famine
Lack of clean water and sanitation
Lack of health care
War
Competition for food from predators such as
rats
 Lack of education
 Typical of Britain in the 18th century and the
Least Economically Developed Countries
(LEDC's) today.
Crude Birth Rate: High
40-50 / 1,000
Crude Death Rate:
High
40-50 /
1,000
Natural Increase Rate:
None
0 / 1,000
Today, no country in
the world is in Stage 1.
Stage 2 - Early Expanding
 Reasons
 Death Rate is falling as a result of:
 Improved health care (e.g.
Smallpox Vaccine)
 Improved Hygiene (Water for
drinking boiled)
 Improved sanitation
 Improved food production and
storage
 Improved transport for food
 Decreased Infant Mortality Rates
 Typical of Britain in 19th
century; Bangladesh; Nigeria
Crude Birth Rate: High
40+ / 1,000
Crude Death Rate:
Lower
15 /
1,000
Natural Increase Rate:
Very High 25+/1,000
Stage 3 - Late Expanding
 Reasons
 Family planning available
 Lower Infant Mortality Rate
 Increased mechanization
reduces need for workers
 Increased standard of living
 Changing status of women
 Typical of Britain in late 19th
and early 20th century; China;
Brazil.
Crude Birth Rate:
Lower
20 /
1,000
Crude Death Rate:
Low
10 /
1,000
Natural Increase Rate:
Low
10 / 1000
Stage 4 - Low Fluctuating
• Reasons
– Economy is settled
– Fully developed Middle Class
– Political stability
• Typical of USA; Sweden;
Japan; Britain
Crude Birth Rate:
Low
10 /
1,000
Crude Death Rate:
Low
10 /
1,000
Natural Increase Rate:
None
0 / 1,000
Is the model universally applicable?
• Like all models, the demographic transition model
has its limitations. It failed to consider, or to predict,
several factors and events:
– 1 Birth rates in several MEDCs have fallen below death
rates (Germany, Sweden). This has caused, for the first
time, a population decline which suggests that perhaps
the model should have a fifth stage added to it.
– 2 The model assumes that in time all countries pass
through the same four stages. It now seems unlikely,
however, that many LEDCs, especially in Africa, will
ever become industrialized.
Continued
 3 The model assumes that the fall in the death rate in Stage 2 was the
consequence of industrialization. Initially, the death rate in many British
cities rose, due to the insanitary conditions which resulted from rapid
urban growth, and it only began to fall after advances were made in
medicine. The delayed fall in the death rate in many developing countries
has been due mainly to their inability to afford medical facilities. In
many countries, the fall in the birth rate in Stage 3 has been less rapid
than the model suggests due to religious and/or political opposition to
birth control (Brazil), whereas the fall was much more rapid, and came
earlier, in China following the government-introduced ‘one child’ policy.
The timescale of the model, especially in several South-east Asian
countries such as Hong Kong and Malaysia, is being squashed as they
develop at a much faster rate than did the early industrialized countries.
 4 Countries that grew as a consequence of emigration from Europe
(USA, Canada, Australia) did not pass through the early stages of the
model.
• In 1798 he published An
Essay on the Principle of
Population
• Malthus was the first to
sound the alarm that the
world’s population was
expanding more rapidly
than food production.
• He was the first to
recognize exponential or
geometric population
growth.
• Today those who share his
concerns are NeoMalthusians
Rev. Thomas Malthus
1766-1834
Thomas Malthus
Neo-Malthusians
Critics of Malthus
Population is growing
faster than Earth’s food
supply
Population increased
geometrically; food supply
increased arithmetically
•Transfer of medical
technology leads to a rapid
increase in population in
poor countries
•World population is
outstripping a wide variety
of resources
•Wars and civil violence
will increase because of
scarcity of food and other
resources
•Large populations
stimulate economic growth
• Poverty, hunger, and
other social welfare
problems are a result of
unjust social and economic
institutions
Malthus Theory and Reality
• Food production increased more rapidly
than predicted
• Population didn’t quadruple
Population is increasing a slower rate
Food & Population, 1950-2000
Malthus vs. Actual Trends
Fig. 2-20: Malthus predicted population would grow faster
than food production, but food production actually
World Health Threats
• This transition occurs as a country undergoes the
process of modernization or economic development.
Less economically developed countries have higher
rates of infectious diseases as standards of medical
care are lower than that found in more economically
developed countries.
• In more economically developed countries, more
people die from degenerative diseases as infectious
diseases such as cholera and typhoid are easily
treated, causing more people to die from cancers as
they live longer.
Epidemiologic Transition- stage 1
• The first transition was from hunting-gathering to
primary food production. During this transition,
infectious and parasitic diseases became prevalent.
The shift to agriculture provides a more sedentary
way-of-life and this creates more opportunities for
contact with infected animals and human waste (i.e.
vectors and vehicles of transmission).
Epidemiologic Transition –stage 2
• The second epidemiological transition
occurred in modern times with infectious
diseases under control and chronic,
noninfectious, degenerative diseases rising.
This second epidemiological transition is
typically in the wealthy or developed
nations. Developing nations still suffer from
infectious diseases more than chronic
diseases.
Epidemiologic Transition- stage 3
• The stage of generative and human-created
diseases, characterized by a decrease in
deaths from infectious diseases and an
increase in chronic disorders associated
with aging. Two important chronic
disorders are cardiovascular diseases and
various forms of cancer
Epidemiologic Transition- stage 4
• The stage of delayed degenerative diseases.
The major degenerative causes of deathcardiovascular diseases and cancers. Life
expectancy of older people is extended
through medical advances
Epidemiologic Transition-stage 5
• The stage of reemergence of infectious and
parasitic diseases. Infectious diseases
thought to have been eradicated or
controlled have returned, and new ones
have emerged.
Cholera in London, 1854
Fig. 2-23: By mapping the distribution of cholera cases and water
pumps in Soho, London, Dr. John Snow identified the
Tuberculosis Death Rates
Fig. 2-24: The tuberculosis death rate is good indicator of a
country’s ability to invest in health care. TB is still one of
HIV/AIDS Prevalence Rates, 2005
Fig. 2-26: The highest HIV infection rates are in sub-Saharan
Africa. India and China have large numbers of cases, but
lower infection rates at present.
Population Policies
• Under Mao, China refused to
cooperate in pop. Controlviewed it as a “capitalist plot”
• Soviets in 1970s promoted
population growth due to the
loss of 26 million in WWII,
Stalin exterminated another
30 million farmers, political
opponents, etc.-gave awards
for women with 10 or more
kids.
• US Reagan, a conservative,
refused to support family
planning
Population Policies
• Expansive Policies or ProNatalist policies encourage
large families e.g. Fascist
Italy, Nazi Germany, Soviet
Union & Ceausescu’s
Romania & Mao’s China.
• Eugenic Population
Policy-Nazi Germany
favored “Aryans” over
mentally ill or other
undesirables.
• The Nazis tried to breed the
super race of Nordic or
Aryan types.
Population Policies
• Restrictive or Anti-Natalist
Policies discourage births.
• Policies vary- e.g. despite
Vatican policies, most Catholic
Italians practice artificial birth
control-Philippines (only Asian
Catholic country) a different
case-govt. restricts birth
control.
• Some countries have learned
that industrialization &
urbanization do as much as
government policy in
controlling births.
Geography of Demography
• India has explosive
growth in Assam
(northeast) & those states
that border Bangladesh
on the GangesBrahmaputra Basin.
• India will overtake China
as the most population
nation-1.9% growth with
18 m. added each year.
• Population planning
began in the 1950s with
little money.
• 1960s more serious
efforts
Geography of Demography
• State of Maharashatra
planned to sterilize anyone
with over 3 children-a riot
erupted-plan was dropped.
• Today advertising to
encourage families to have
fewer children-a low key,
noncompulsory approach.
• Some Indian states have over
100 m. more than many
countries
• Religious diversity makes a
national population policy
difficult
Maharashtra, India. A sign reads “free family planning
sterlization operation” closed in 1996.
Geography of Demography
• Mao Zedong encouraged
population growth-after his death
Deng Xiaping called for control
• 1979 launched the One Child
Policy with goal of stabilizing at
1.2 billion by end of 20th cent.
• 1970s growth rate 2.4%
• 1985 growth rate 1.1%
• After 1982 more serious
enforcement-mandatory
contraception after 1st child.
• If a 2nd child was born-parents
were sterilized.
China’s One Child Policy
What are some of the limitations, unintended consequences, and
contradictions found in government policies toward population
growth?
Geography of Demography
• Recognized minorities (3%)
of pop. were exempt
• Many rural Chinese defied
rule, hid pregnant women,
failed to register births,
prevented inspectors from
visiting rural villages.
• Government took drastic
action:
–
–
–
–
Violators were fired
Land was confiscated
Lost all benefits
Pregnant women were arrested
& forced to have abortions
Geography of Demography
• First 6 years 70 million
abortions
• 1980s about 20 million
sterilizations a year-3X as
many women as men.
• Party Members were birth
control police-got cash and
promotion for enforcing the
laws.
• 1984 One Child Policy was
relaxed in the countryside-a
couple with a daughter-2nd
child after 4 years.
Geography of Demography
• Corruption a major problempermitted to evade rule-bribe.
• Fertility rates are rising as the
rules are relaxed.
• One Child Policy was
practical-but rural tradition
opposed the rule
• Drive for Zero Population
Growth eroded the traditions
of Chinese society.
• Female infanticide a common
occurrence.
Geography of Demography
• China’s One-Child Policy created
a generation of 90 million
• 119 boys for every 100 girls
• 30 million unmarried men by 2020
• 45% of Chinese women said they
don’t intend to wed.
• 3/10 families have grandparents
living with them
• Biggest demographic revolution in
history-Number of Elderly is
rising-by 2050 about 30% of the
population will be over 60-no
pensions or social security.
Population of
Germany, 1989
• Attendants or “pushers” on
the Japan Train system.
• Despite having a declining
population, Japan has a
very high population
density.
• Japan has a problem of an
aging population & low
birth rates.
• Japanese govt. bars
immigration of foreign
workers-solution
automation-but it won’t
solve the problem of an
aging population.
• Singapore imposed a
campaign of sterilization &
abortion to curb growth-it
worked.
Low Growth in Denmark
Since the 1970s, with little population growth since then. Its
population pyramid shows increasing numbers of elderly
and few children.
THE END