China, global imbalances and global restructurings Andrew M. Fischer Institute of Social Studies Krugman (2009). ‘The Chinese Disconnect.’ NYT, 22 October. ‘China’s bad behavior is posing a growing threat to the rest of the world economy. The only question now is what the world — and, in particular, the United States — will do about it… Many economists, myself included, believe that China’s asset-buying spree helped inflate the housing bubble, setting the stage for the global financial crisis. But China’s insistence on keeping the yuan/dollar rate fixed, even when the dollar declines, may be doing even more harm now… with the world economy still in a precarious state, beggar-thy-neighbor policies by major players can’t be tolerated. Something must be done about China’s currency.’ US deficit (reversed) and China surpluses 850 800 750 current account (1 billion current USD) 700 650 600 550 500 US current account (-) 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 China reserves (-) 100 China current account 50 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 China BoP current value in USD (reserves -) 475 450 425 400 375 350 300 275 250 225 Current Acct Capital Acc Reserves (-) Net E&Os 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 -25 19 82 19 83 19 84 19 85 19 86 19 87 19 88 19 89 19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 Balance USD 1 billion 325 14% 13% 12% Current Acct Cap+Fin Acc Reserves inverse (-) Net Es&Os 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% Very large devaluations (›40%) 6% 5% 4% Large devaluation (›25%) 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% 08 20 07 20 06 20 05 20 04 20 03 20 02 20 01 20 00 20 99 19 98 19 97 19 96 19 95 19 94 19 93 19 92 19 91 19 90 19 89 19 88 19 87 19 86 19 85 19 84 19 83 19 82 -4% 19 Balance/GDP (current value converted to USD at year-average market rates) China BoP relative to GDP (current), 1982-2008 China Trade Balances with World Regions, 1997-2007 260 240 200 Total 180 N. America 160 Europe 140 Asia 120 Africa 100 L. America 80 Oc&Pac. Is. 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 20 07 20 06 20 05 20 04 20 03 20 02 20 01 20 00 19 99 19 98 -80 19 97 balance USD billion 220 625 600 575 550 525 500 475 450 425 400 375 350 325 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 Asia X Asia M N. Am X N Am M Europe X Europe M L. Am X L Am M Africa X Africa M Oc&Pac X 20 07 20 06 20 05 20 04 20 03 20 02 20 01 20 00 19 99 19 98 Oc&Pac M 19 97 USD billions China Regional Trade Volumes 1997-2007 -75 udi A rabi a nes ki sta n rkey tnam …K a zakh stan …Tai w an …Vie …UA E …Tu 75 …Ko r ea R ep . …Th ai lan d …Sa a an l aysi …Ph i li ppi …Pa n an …Om …Ma …Jap …Ir a ia ong esh …Ind …Ho ng K …Ba nglad -50 t ot al -25 Asi a Balance USD 1 billion China's Trade Balance with Asia 150 125 100 2005 2006 50 25 0 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 -70 -80 -90 -100 -110 Financial Direct Investment China FDI abroad FDI in China Securities/Portfolio Other Investments Reserves 20 08 20 07 20 06 20 05 20 04 20 03 20 02 20 01 20 00 19 99 19 98 19 97 19 96 19 95 19 94 19 93 19 92 19 91 Net Es&Os 19 90 Balance in USD billion China financial account, composition 1990-2008 China financial account, composition / GDP, 1990-2008 5% 4% Financial 3% Direct Investment China FDI abroad 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% 19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 balance/GDP (current value converted at year-average market rates) 6% FDI in China Securities/Portfolio Other Investments Reserves Net Es&Os China selected external accounts, 1990-2008 160 150 Trade services credit 140 Trade services debit 130 Income and profit credit 120 Income and profit debit 110 FDI in China balance 100 China FDI abroad balance 90 Portfolio Investment Assets Portfolio Investment Liab. 70 Other Investment Assets 60 Other Investment Liab. 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 20 08 20 07 20 06 20 05 20 04 20 03 20 02 20 01 20 00 19 99 19 98 19 97 19 96 19 95 19 94 19 93 19 92 19 91 -40 19 90 USD billion 80