Burrell E. Montz
Department of Geography
East Carolina University montzb@ecu.edu

• Short fuse events
– Flash floods
– Tornadoes
• Overview of studies
• Summary of findings
• So what...?
Topics

The Problem
There remains, then, the need for a mathematical model of human response to warnings, a model that would mimic all essential characteristics of human response in a setting of a local flood warning system and that would enable one to predict the outcomes of decisionevent pairs.
Krzysztofowicz, R., 1993
Reality

Components of Public Response
 Hear
 Understand
 Believe
 Personalize
 Decide to act
 Respond

What People Say
Gruntfest et al., 2008

What People Do
League, 2008

Actual versus Anticipated Behavior
• Difference between what people say and what they do
• Importance of context and circumstance
• Difficult to document impacts of
– Time
– Memory
– Cognitive dissonance

Tornado Studies: Sources of Information
60
50
20
10
0
40
30
TV Siren Friend/Family Visual Radio
Schmidlin et al., 2009; Schmidlin and King, 1997; Balluz et al., 2000

Actions and Reasons:
35% took shelter
• Positive actions correlated with
– Perceived danger
– Presence of children
– High school education
– Hearing warning
– Having a basement
– Being married
• Negative actions correlated with
– Previous damage
– Less education
– God’s will
– Lack of access to shelter
– Limited mobility
• No correlation
– Age, gender, race
– Lead time
– Owning NWR
– Family size
– Previous experience

NWS Service Assessments
• Super Tuesday 2008
Tornadoes
– 57 dead
– 18 (32%) heard some warnings
– 11 (61%) heeded warnings
– 8 (44%) sought shelter
– 6 (33%) did not
• Mothers’ Day 2008
Tornadoes
– 21 dead
– 11 (52%) knew of warning
– 10 (47.6%) tried to take shelter
________________________
– 14 groups interviewed
– 6 (42.8%) heard official warning
– 6 heard from family or friends
– 4 (28.5%) sought shelter
– 6 tried but it “came too fast”

Flood Fatalities
70
60
50
40
90
80
10
0
30
20
Total Fatalities
Flood
Flash Flood
2005 2006 2007
Source: League, 2009, http://www.geo.txstate.edu/lovell/IFFL/research.html

Vehicle Deaths
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2005 2006 2007 Total % Vehicle
Fatalities
Source: League, 2009, http://www.geo.txstate.edu/lovell/IFFL/research.html
% Vehicle
Flood
Flash Flood

Gender Breakdown
*
40
30
20
10
60
50
Flood Male
Flood Female
Flash Flood Male
Flash Flood Female
0
2005 2006 2007 Total
Source: League, 2009, http://www.geo.txstate.edu/lovell/IFFL/research.html
* Where reported

So what about warnings?

League, 2009
But...
There is a difference between
•Intentional Drivers
•Situational Drivers

False Alarms, Near Misses, and Response
• What we know
– Very different definitions of false alarms
• NWS vs public
– Perceptions of accuracy vary
• NWS vs public
– Cry wolf or warning fatigue or neither
– Influence of event type
– We don’t know enough
Barnes et al., 2007

There is no ONE public
• Different languages
• Different understandings
• Different situations
• Different capabilities
• Different needs
And...
Vulnerability Factors
Socio-economic and demographic attributes
Social structures
Infrastructure
Attitudinal, psychological, and knowledge factors
Warning systems
Public policy/risk management
Spatial and temporal aspects of event
Indicators
Age, gender, income, profession, family situation
Cohesion of community; social networks
Building quality and types
Experience, risk perception, views of nature, press coverage
Communication channels and relevancy
System of actors; decision-making process
Time of day; location; local knowledge

Long way to go...

Conclusion
• NWS mission: Protect life and property
• NWS warnings are only the beginning of meeting this mission
• Warnings move through various paths to the public
• Warnings are received and understood differently
• Collaborative effort required to get positive, protective responses
• Social science research required to understand why people respond the way they do under what circumstances

Thank you
Any questions you’d like to wade through?
http://blogs.davenportlibrary.com/sc/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/no-wading.jpg