Lecture 1 Managerial Finance FINA 6335 Ronald F. Singer Finance The study of resource allocation under conditions of uncertainty. Merges: – Economics. – Accounting. – Statistics. Areas Corporate Finance From the viewpoint of the Financial Manager – Capital Budgeting – Dividend Policy – Capital Structure Investments From the viewpoint of individual and institutional investors – Risk – Return – Portfolio Decisions Types of Financial Securities Equity Capital – Common Stock – Preferred Stock Debt Capital – Bonds Hybrid Securities – Why hold Securities? The Rewards and Risks to Security Holders The Rewards – To Stockholders – To Bondholders The Risks: – To Stockholders – To Bondholders The Goal of Financial Management What should be the goal? Possible measures financial managers of performance of How do managers achieve their objectives? Make Decisions that Investment The Problem How can we determine if a project will make stockholders’ better or worse off??? What is an Investment? Current Cash Expenditures which are expected to generate cash inflows sometime in the future How to Make a Decision? Inflow Benefits vs. Costs Complications Uncertainty Future Flows Digression on Conventions of Time Cash Inflows Cash Outflows Example • For current Investment of $10,000, receive $5,000 within 1 year, $6,000 in years 3 through 5. 5000 6000 6000 6000. 0. 1 2 3 4 5 10000. • Observations: 1. t = 0 current time. 2. Everything happens at the end of a period unless specified otherwise. Using Market Prices to Determine Cash Values Suppose a jewelry manufacturer has the opportunity to trade 10 ounces of platinum and receive 20 ounces of gold today. To compare the costs and benefits, we first need to convert them to a common unit. Using Market Prices to Determine Cash Values (cont'd) Suppose gold can be bought and sold for a current market price of $250 per ounce. Then the 20 ounces of gold we receive has a cash value of: – (20 ounces of gold) today ($250/ounce) = $5000 Using Market Prices to Determine Cash Values (cont'd) Similarly, if the current market price for platinum is $550 per ounce, then the 10 ounces of platinum we give up has a cash value of: – (10 ounces of platinum) $5500 ($550/ounce) = Using Market Prices to Determine Cash Values (cont'd) Therefore, the jeweler’s opportunity has a benefit of $5000 today and a cost of $5500 today. In this case, the net value of the project today is: – $5000 – $5500 = –$500 Because it is negative, the costs exceed the benefits and the jeweler should reject the trade. Example 3.1 Example 3.1 (cont'd) Example 3.2 Example 3.2 (cont'd) Present Value The present value of receiving $1,000, one year from today? $1000 0 1 It is : What $1000 received one year from today is worth today. Present Value Present Value is: – How much someone would lend me on that claim – How much I could sell the claim for – How much it would cost to engage in a "similar" investment What is the Answer? – In order to answer that question we have to know what “interest rate” is assumed. – Assume that the interest rate is 25%? – Thus, you pay $200 interest to borrow $800 now The Market Rate of Interest (Future Amount - Initial Amount) R= Initial Amount = In this case, the initial amount is also the present value Interest Initial Amount = 200 800 = 0.25 R= Future Amount -1 Present Value OR Present Value = = Future Amount 1+ R 1000 = 800. 1.25 1/1+R is called the Discount Factor Present Value = Future amount x Discount Factor If R is 25 % Discount Factor is 1 1 = = 0.80 1 + R 1.25 and PV (1,000; 25%; 1 yr) = 1 [1000] 1.25 = 0.80 [1000] = 800 3.2 Interest Rates and the Time Value of Money Time Value of Money – Consider an investment opportunity with the following certain cash flows. Cost: $100,000 today Benefit: $105,000 in one year – The difference in value between money today and money in the future is due to the time value of money. The Interest Rate: An Exchange Rate Across Time – Suppose the current annual interest rate is 7%. By investing or borrowing at this rate, we can exchange $1.07 in one year for each $1 today. – Is the above investment worthwhile? What is $105,000 worth today (i.e. its Present Value)? It is Worth $105,000 divided by 1.07 = $98,130.84 – So is it worth giving up $100,000 to receive the equivalent of $98,130.84 today? Example 3.4 Problem – The cost of replacing a fleet of company trucks with more energy efficient vehicles was $100 million in 2007. – The cost is estimated to rise by 8.5% in 2008. – If the interest rate were 4%, what was the cost of a delay in terms of dollars in 2007? Example 3.4 Solution – If the project were delayed, it’s cost in 2008 would be: $100 million × (1.085) = $108.5 million – Compare this amount to the cost of $100 million in 2007 using the interest rate of 4%: $108.5 million ÷ 1.04 = $104.33 million in 2007 dollars. – The cost of a delay of one year would be: $104.33 million – $100 million = $4.33 million in 2007 Future Value versus Present Value We compared the cost of replacing the fleet today with the Present Value of replacing it in the future. Alternatively we could find the Future Value of replacing it today, compared with the value of replacing it in the future. Thus, the Future Value of replacing it today is: $100 million times (1.04) = $104 million – Comparing that with the actual cost of replacing it one year in the future gives a benefit of The benefit in future value terms is thus: $108.5 million - $104 million or $4.5 million Note that in present value terms the present value of $4.5 million is: $4.5 million divided by 1.04 or $4.33 million!!! Figure 3.1 Converting Between Dollars Today and Gold, Euros, or Dollars in the Future 3.3 Present Value and the NPV Decision Rule The net present value (NPV) of a project or investment is the difference between the present value of its benefits and the present value of its costs. – Net Present Value NPV PV (Benefits) PV (Costs) NPV PV (All project cash flows) The NPV Decision Rule (cont'd) Accepting or Rejecting a Project – Accept those projects with positive NPV because accepting them is equivalent to receiving their NPV in cash today. – Reject those projects with negative NPV because accepting them would reduce the wealth of investors. Example 3.5 Example 3.5 (cont'd) Choosing Among Projects Choosing Among Projects (cont'd) All three projects have positive NPV, and we would accept all three if possible. If we must choose only one project, Project B has the highest NPV and therefore is the best choice. NPV and Individual Preferences Although Project B has the highest NPV, what if we do not want to spend the $20 for the cash outlay? Would Project A be a better choice? Should this affect our choice of projects? NO! As long as we are able to borrow and lend at the risk-free interest rate, Project B is superior whatever our preferences regarding the timing of the cash flows. NPV and Individual Preferences (cont'd) NPV and Individual Preferences (cont'd) Regardless of our preferences for cash today versus cash in the future, we should always maximize NPV first. We can then borrow or lend to shift cash flows through time and find our most preferred pattern of cash flows. Wealth Wealth is the present value of all Current and Future income. Suppose that an individual has $1,000 in his/her pocket and has a claim on $1,000 one year from now. What is his wealth if the interest rate is 20%? $1,000 in his/her pocket is worth $1,000. $1,000 one year from now is worth $833.33 = 1,000/(1 +R) = 1000/(1.20) Therefore, his/her Wealth is $1,833.33. You have to convert all future income to Present Values before you can add them up Market Opportunity Line The Market Opportunity Line shows how an individual can exchange current for future consumption. Endowment 1000 Now 1000 Next Year How? 500 “ 1600 “ How? Zero “ 2200 “ Wealth 1833 “ Zero “ 1500 “ ? “ 2250 2200 1625 1000 375 500 1000 Possible Alternatives 1833 Wealth and the NPV of a Project Now suppose the investor has the opportunity to invest in only one of the three projects: Project A 2320 2292 2200 1625 1000 375 500 1000 1833 1910 1933 Wealth and the NPV of a Project Now suppose the investor has the opportunity to invest in only one of the three projects: Project B 2320 2292 2200 1625 1000 375 500 1000 1833 1910 1933 Market Opportunity Line Notice that this individual's wealth is indicated by the horizontal intercept. Wealth = $1,833 = $1,000 + $1,000 1+ R = $1,000 + $1,000 1.20 Wealth = Current Income + Future IncomexDiscount Factor The Wealth is the maximum an individual can consume today by borrowing against all of his/her future income Market Opportunity Line The slope of the market opportunity line is: - (1 + R) Slope = Rise/Run = (Principal + Interest) - Principal = -( 1 + Interest ) Principal = -(1 + R) If you give up $500 now, you can get: 500 X (1 + R) = 500(1.20) = $600 more next year. If you want to get $800 more now, you must give up: 800 X (1.20) or $960 next year Bottom Line 1. Wealth is the PRESENT VALUE of income stream 2. All individuals are unambiguously better off when their wealth increases. 3. The net present value of an investment project is the amount investors' wealth would increase (decrease) if the project were undertaken. Lecture 2 Managerial Finance FINA 6335 Ronald F. Singer 3.4 Arbitrage and the Law of One Price Arbitrage – The practice of buying and selling equivalent goods in different markets to take advantage of a price difference. An arbitrage opportunity occurs when it is possible to make a profit without taking any risk or making any investment. Normal Market – A competitive market in which there are no arbitrage opportunities. 3.4 Arbitrage and the Law of One Price (cont'd) Law of One Price – If equivalent investment opportunities trade simultaneously in different competitive markets, then they must trade for the same price in both markets. 3.5 No-Arbitrage and Security Prices Valuing a Security – Assume a security promises a risk-free payment of $1000 in one year. If the risk-free interest rate is 5%, what can we conclude about the price of this bond in a normal market? Price(Bond) = $952.38 3.5 No-Arbitrage and Security Prices (cont'd) Valuing a Security (cont’d) – What if the price of the bond is not $952.38? Assume the price is $940. – The opportunity for arbitrage will force the price of the bond to rise until it is equal to $952.38. 3.5 No-Arbitrage and Security Prices (cont'd) Valuing a Security (cont’d) – What if the price of the bond is not $952.38? Assume the price is $960. – The opportunity for arbitrage will force the price of the bond to fall until it is equal to $952.38. Determining the No-Arbitrage Price Unless the price of the security equals the present value of the security’s cash flows, an arbitrage opportunity will appear. No Arbitrage Price of a Security Price(Security) PV (All cash flows paid by the security) Example 3.6 Example 3.6 (cont'd) Determining the Interest Rate From Bond Prices If we know the price of a risk-free bond, we can use Price(Security) PV (All cash flows paid by the security) to determine what the risk-free interest rate must be if there are no arbitrage opportunities. Determining the Interest Rate From Bond Prices (cont'd) Suppose a risk-free bond that pays $1000 in one year is currently trading with a competitive market price of $929.80 today. The bond’s price must equal the present value of the $1000 cash flow it will pay. Determining the Interest Rate From Bond Prices (cont'd) $929.80 today ($1000 in one year) (1 rf $ in one year / $ today) 1 rf $1000 in one year 1.0755 $ in one year / $ today $929.80 today The risk-free interest rate must be 7.55%. The NPV of Trading Securities In a normal market, the NPV of buying or selling a security is zero. NPV (Buy security) PV (All cash flows paid by the security) Price(Security) 0 NPV (Sell security) Price(Security) PV (All cash flows paid by the security) 0 The NPV of Trading Securities (cont’d) Separation Principle – We can evaluate the NPV of an investment decision separately from the decision the firm makes regarding how to finance the investment or any other security transactions the firm is considering. Example 3.7 Example 3.7 (cont'd) Valuing a Portfolio The Law of One Price also has implications for packages of securities. – Consider two securities, A and B. Suppose a third security, C, has the same cash flows as A and B combined. In this case, security C is equivalent to a portfolio, or combination, of the securities A and B. Price(C) Price(A B) Price(A) Price(B) Value Additivity Example 3.8 Example 3.8 (cont'd) 3.6 The Price of Risk Risky Versus Risk-free Cash Flows – Assume there is an equal probability of either a weak economy or strong economy. 3.6 The Price of Risk (cont'd) Risky Versus Risk-free Cash Flows (cont’d) Price(Risk-free Bond) PV(Cash Flows) ($1100 in one year) (1.04 $ in one year / $ today) $1058 today – Expected Cash Flow (Market Index) ½ ($800) + ½ ($1400) = $1100 Although both investments have the same expected value, the market index has a lower value since it has a greater amount of risk. Risk Aversion and the Risk Premium Risk Aversion – Investors prefer to have a safe income rather than a risky one of the same average amount. Risk Premium – The additional return that investors expect to earn to compensate them for a security’s risk. – When a cash flow is risky, to compute its present value we must discount the cash flow we expect on average at a rate that equals the risk-free interest rate plus an appropriate risk Risk Aversion and the Risk Premium (cont’d) Expected return of a risky investment Expected Gain at end of year Initial Cost – Market return if the economy is strong (1400 – 1100) / 1100 = 40% – Market return if the economy is weak (800 – 1000) / 1000 = –20% – Expected market return ½ (40%) + ½ (–20%) = 10% The No-Arbitrage Price of a Risky Security – If we combine security A with a risk-free bond that pays $800 in one year, the cash flows of the portfolio in one year are identical to the cash flows of the market index. – By the Law of One Price, the total market value of the bond and security A must equal $1000, the value of the market index. The No-Arbitrage Price of a Risky Security (cont'd) Given a risk-free interest rate of 4%, the market price of the bond is: – ($800 in one year) / (1.04 $ in one year/$ today) = $769 today – Therefore, the initial market price of security A is $1000 – $769 = $231. Risk Premiums Depend on Risk If an investment has much more variable returns, it must pay investors a higher risk premium. Risk Is Relative to the Overall Market The risk of a security must be evaluated in relation to the fluctuations of other investments in the economy. A security’s risk premium will be higher the more its returns tend to vary with the overall economy and the market index. If the security’s returns vary in the opposite direction of the market index, it offers insurance and will have a negative risk Risk Is Relative to the Overall Market (cont'd) Example 3.9 Example 3.9 (cont'd) Risk, Return, and Market Prices When cash flows are risky, we can use the Law of One Price to compute present values by constructing a portfolio that produces cash flows with identical risk. Figure 3.3 Converting Between Dollars Today and Dollars in One Year with Risk Computing prices in this way is equivalent to converting between cash flows today and the expected cash flows received in the future using a discount rate rs that includes a risk premium appropriate for the investment’s risk: rs rf ( risk premium for investment s) Figure 3.3 Converting Between Dollars Today and Dollars in One Year with Risk Example 3.10 Example 3.10 (cont'd) 3.7 Arbitrage with Transactions Costs What consequence do transaction costs have for no-arbitrage prices and the Law of One Price? – When there are transactions costs, arbitrage keeps prices of equivalent goods and securities close to each other. Prices can deviate, but not by more than the transactions cost of the arbitrage. Example 3.11 Example 3.11 (cont'd) Problem of the Day Find the Wealth of an individual who will earn $500,000 over the current year and who has $2,000,000 equity in assets (such as a home, a car, cash, etc.). Assume the interest rate is 8% Find the wealth of the same individual who also can invest up to $200,000 in a machine which will produce widgets. The rate of return for this investment is 17%. Questions?