Snapshot of World and U.S.
Agricultural Trade
Presented to
2009 Southern Outlook Conference
Daniel B. Whitley
Deputy Director, Trade and Biofuels Analysis Division
Foreign Agricultural Service
How Do We Make Official USDA
Estimates?
Lock-up
process
Input From Multiple Sources
OGA ANALYZES AND EVALUATES MARKET
INFORMATION AND DATA FOR CREDIBILITY,
RELIABILITY, ACCURACY AND TIMELINESS
Remote
Sensing Trade
World
Data
Weather
Vendors Reports
Attaché
Official Reports
Overseas Country
Agribusiness
USDA
Agencies
(Surveys)
Academia
Travel
Reports
Media
Economic
Reports
Reports
OGA
50 FAS Posts Cover 150 Countries
No Coverage Or Staff
FAS Regional coverage
American In Country
Foreign Agricultural Service
OGA Develops Country/Commodity
Balance Sheets
SUPPLY = DEMAND
Beginning +Production + Import = Exports
Stocks
s
Private
Area
Commercial
(On-farm)
Yield
Concessional
(Pipeline)
Government
(Security)
(Public
Distribution)
+
Domestic + Ending
Stocks
Use
Feed
FSI
(Food)
(Seed)
(Industrial)
(Loss)
FAS Lock-up Commodities
•
•
•
•
Wheat
Rice
Feed Grains - Corn, Barley, Oats, Sorghum, Rye
Oilseeds - Soybeans, Sunflower, Rapeseed,
Peanuts, Palm
•
•
•
•
Cotton
Meat- Beef, Pork and Poultry
Dairy
Sugar
USDA’s Economic Intelligence System
National
Agricultural
Statistics
Service (NASS)
Joint
Agricultural
Weather Facility
Foreign
Agricultural
Service
(FAS)
Economic
Research
Service
(ERS)
World Agricultural
Outlook Board
(WAOB)
Farm Service
Agency
(FSA)
The Day of Lock-up
• Why: Maintain integrity
• How often: Monthly, second week
• When: 2:00 a.m.
• Where: Secured wing in South Building
• What:
– Incorporate NASS domestic estimates
– Finalize PSDs and reports
– Secretary Vilsack briefed and WASDE report is released
at 8:30 a.m., before markets open
– FAS reports and databases released at 9:00 a.m.
The Financial Crisis and World Trade
The value of global trade contracted in the first
half of 2009 compared to last year
-30% All Goods
By Sector
-15% Agricultural Goods
-35% Raw Materials
-25% Finished Goods
All Goods Plummeted 30%
$12
Jul-Dec
Jan-Jun
$10
Trillions
$8
$6
$4
$2
$0
2002
Source: Global Trade Atlas
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009E
Agricultural Goods Dropped 15%
$800
Jul- Dec
Jan- Jun
$700
$600
Billions
$500
$400
$300
$200
$100
$0
2002
Source: Global Trade Atlas
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009E
Source: Global Trade Atlas
6/2009
12/2008
06/2008
12/2007
06/2007
12/2006
06/2006
12/2005
($Billions)
$1,000
$900
$80
$800
$70
$700
$60
$600
$500
$50
$400
$40
$300
$30
$200
$20
Agricultural Goods
$1,100
06/2005
12/2004
06/2004
12/2003
06/2003
12/2002
06/2002
12/2001
All Goods
Trade Decline Halts
$100
$90
Many U.S. Products Depend on
Overseas Markets
Hides
Cotton
Almonds
Wheat
Rice
Raisins
Pulses
Soybeans
Dried
Grapes
Grapefruit
Peaches
Pears
Feed Corn
Lemons
Animal fats
Poultry
Pork
Apples
Veg oils
Cherries
Oranges
Beef
Vegetables
6
6
5
0
21
20
19
18
18
17
17
16
15
14
11
40
40
38
38
50
49
45
64
74
89
20
40
60
80
100
% of Domestic Production Exported (2006-08 average)
FY 2009 & 2010 U.S. Trade Forecasts
for Agricultural Products
Initial 2010 Forecast
AgExports = $97 billion
AgImports = $82 billion
AgSurplus = $15 billion
Changes Since May in 2009 Forecast
AgExports raised $1.5 billion to $97.5 billion
AgImports lowered $5.0 billion to $76.0 billion
AgSurplus raised $7.5 billion to $21.5 billion
USDA’s “Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade”
Released on August 31, 2009 at 4pm EST
Slides prepared by Office of Global Analysis/FAS
U.S. Agricultural Trade
Competition in grain, oilseed & cotton markets and global economic recovery shape the
2010 export outlook. Lower grain volumes & prices account for two-thirds of the expected
$18-billion export loss in 2009. Imports recover in 2010 after large decline in 2009.
Trade Value ($Billion)
$120
$110
$100
Records
$90
115.3
97.5
97
82.2
79.3
82
$80
76
59.8
$70
Exports
$60
49.1
Imports
$50
36
$40
Trade Surplus
27.3
$30
21.5
$20
$10
$0
'87
'89
'91
'93
'95
'97
'99
'01
'03
'05
'07 '09f
15
Bulk Shipments Fall While High Value Rise
70
Bulk
High Value
60
50
40
30
20
10
2002
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009p 2010p
Summary Outlook for FY 2010 AgExports
Increased Competition in Grain, Oilseed & Cotton Markets
Global Economic Recovery Supports High-value Product Sales
Bulk exports down $2.7 billion, mostly on weaker prices
High-value products up $2.2 billion with generally higher prices
for horticultural products and increased meat and soybean oil
shipments
Grains, Oilseeds & Cotton
Wheat, Coarse Grains & Rice – down a combined $1.3 billion as abundant
supplies lower unit value and more than offset any volume gains
 Soybeans – exports remain at record volume, but unit value falls on record
global production and exportable supply
 Cotton – volume falls on smaller US exportable supply & more competition

Livestock & Horticultural Products
Red Meats – volumes rise on stronger demand; prices steady to higher
 Broiler Meat – volume down on increased competition from Brazil
 Horticultural Products – generally higher prices boost export value; record
almond stocks with lower prices

U.S. Agricultural Exports By Region
FY 09 to FY 10 Value Change & (region FY 10 percentage of Total
U.S. Agricultural Exports)
$0 (2%)
$0 (7%)
+$800 (31%)
+$100 (2%)
-$200 (5%)
$0 (1%)
$0 (6%)
-$900 (31%)
$0 (4%)
+$100 (3%)
-$200 (3%)
$0 (1%)
Top Ag Markets and Ag Suppliers
Top Ag Markets…
Top Ag Suppliers…
Canada
Canada
Mexico
EU
Japan
Mexico
China
2010p
2009f
2008
EU
$0
$5
$10
Billion Dollars
$15
$20
China
2010p
2009f
2008
Brazil
$0
$5
$10
Billion Dollars
$15
$20
Q&A
Daniel B. Whitley
USDA/FAS/OGA
Trade and Biofuels Analysis
daniel.whitley@fas.usda.gov
(202) 720-0823
Additional Slides
Export Outlook for Grain & Feed Products
Initial FY 2010 Forecast:
Revised FY 2009 Estimate:
$25.5 Billion
$26.4 Billion
2010
Export Value ($Bil)
Key Developments
Coarse grains down $400 mil to
$9.6 bil; weakening prices more than
offset higher volume
 Corn exports up 6 mmt to 53 mmt
on greater demand and less
competition from Ukraine & Russia
 Wheat down $550 million on lower
unit values, abundant global supplies,
and lower import demand
 Rice exports fall $400 mil to $1.8 bil

Wild Cards
EU wheat quality
 Argentine export policies

2009
Key Developments
Stronger late season corn
shipments & higher unit values for rice

39
37
35
33
31
29
27
25
23
21
19
17
15
13
$800 Million
Includes corn gluten feed/meal
Record
Actual
May 09 Forecast
Aug 09 Forecast
Aug 10 Projection
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
'08 '10p
Export Outlook for Oilseeds & Products
Initial FY 2010 Forecast:
Revised FY 2009 Estimate:
2010
Key Developments
Soybean export value down $800
million to $12.9 bil as prices fall in
response to record global production &
increased exportable supply
 Soybean volume unchanged as early
season gains offset late year slowdown
 Soyoil export volume rises 50% due
to diminished S. America availability

Wild Cards
Late U.S. plantings/cool weather
impact on yields
 S. American production rebound
 China demand remains key to
meeting export forecasts

2009
Key Developments
Strong late season soybean sales to
China push volume higher

$20.1 Billion
$20.9 Billion
$900 Million
Export Value ($Bil)
23
21
19
17
15
13
11
9
7
Excludes corn gluten feed/meal
Record
Actual
May 09 Forecast
Aug 09 Forecast
Aug 10 Projection
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
'08 '10p
Export Outlook for Cotton
Initial FY 2010 Forecast:
$3.1 Billion
Revised FY 2009 Estimate: $3.7 Billion
2010
Key Developments
Export volume down 600,000 mt or
20% to 2.2 mmt due to tighter U.S.
supplies and intensified competition
from carry over stocks in India and
Central Asia
 Unit values are up on stronger
global demand and tighter world
stocks

$100 Million
Export Value ($Bil)
6
Actual
May 09 Forecast
Aug 09 Forecast
Aug 10 Projection
5
Record
4
Wild Cards
3
U.S./foreign crops
 Global economic recovery
2

2009
Key Developments
Lower unit value reduces export
value despite somewhat higher
shipments

1
Note FY ’09 and prior years based on Census data; FY ’10
forecasts based on WASDE MY forecasts
0
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
'08 '10p
Export Outlook for Dairy, Livestock & Poultry
Initial FY 2010 Forecast:
$19.7 Billion
Revised FY 2009 Estimate: $18.8 Billion
2010
Key Developments
Resumption of long term sales growth
 Pork up $445 million, beef up $80
million, and dairy up $120 million as
improved global economic conditions
stimulate demand
 Poultry down slightly on competition
from Brazil (broilers) and weak turkey
demand (Mexico)

Wild Cards
Russian TRQ negotiations for meat
and poultry
 Changes in BSE protocols
 Ongoing SPS trade irritants, i.e. China

2009
Key Developments
Pork export value raised slightly on
higher unit value

$400 Million
Export Value ($Bil)
24
Record
22
Actual
May 09 Forecast
Aug 09 Forecast
Aug 10 Projection
20
18
16
14
12
10
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
'08 '10p
Export Outlook for Horticultural Products
Initial FY 2010 Forecast:
$22.0 Billion
Revised FY 2009 Estimate: $21.0 Billion
Export Value ($Bil)
2010
Key Developments
Horticultural products up $1 billion on
higher unit values, mainly for processed
products
 Demand for tree nuts expands in Asia
and Europe; record high US almond
stocks will help the industry meet
foreign demand although unit values
are expected lower
$500 Million
Record
22

20
Actual
May 09 Forecast
Aug 09 Forecast
Aug 10 Projection
18
16
2009
Key Developments
14
Fruits and vegetables, both fresh &
processed, reduced $400 million due to
short-term contraction in shipments
related to economic crisis
12

10
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
'08 '10p
Imports Resume Growth After FY 2009 Decline
FY 2009 imports forecast to fall $3.3 billion to $76 billion
FY 2010 imports are forecast at a record $82 billion
Observations for FY 2009
Large decline for imports expected, down $3.3 billion from the previous year; a yearover-year decline is highly unusual.
 U.S. consumer spending on food, both domestic and imported product, is forecast to
fall 3.7% to $1.07 trillion in CY 2009. Aggregate import volume is forecast to fall less
than 1%, but value is down 4% due to price declines for some products.
 Consumer spending contracts with negative wealth effect (lower home values and
equity market) and soaring unemployment of 9-10%.
 Largest declines registered by horticultural and animal products; smaller shipments of
live cattle and swine from Canada as inventories decline on poor producer margins due
to high feed and energy costs.

Observations for FY 2010
 Imports resume growth as consumer spending recovers.
Gains are broad-based across all categories as volumes and prices rise
 Sugar imports, which are forecast to rise $700 million in 2009 on higher volume, are
expected to rise further on higher prices.

U.S. Exports Plummet
FY 2009 Export Forecast Change from FY 2008
East Asia
Central America
S.E. Asisa
FSU 12
Middle East
EU
South America
North Africa
0
-5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 -45 -50 -55 -60
% Change in Value
Lock-up Week
Inter-agency reviews and analyses:
Meetings and Activities
Leading Up to Lockup and
WASDE Report
Production Pre-meeting
4 working days before lockup
Trade/Balances Pre-meeting
3 working days before lockup
Satellite imagery
Rainfall and temperature data
Attaché reports
Other reports/sources
Attaché reports
Other reports/sources
Trade databases
Supply/use by country
ICEC Meetings
2 working days before lockup
United States Market
Season Average Farm Price
Global impact on US trade
NASS production/stock reports
Production Review for WAOB Chair
Major production updates
Resolution of ICEC differences
Draft Report
1 working day before lockup