THE ECONOMY:
NOW TO THE ELECTION
Jeffrey Dorfman August 2012

The Current State of the US Economy

Retail sales are growing

Incomes are creeping upward

Debt is expanding again

Many agricultural commodity prices are rising

Mostly, the economy is in a holding pattern

Retail has been recovering

Incomes are rising

Consumer debt is rising, too

Consumer debt is manageable

Employment is weak

Unemployment is strong

Unemployment is long

Consumer confidence is still AWOL

Georgia Budget Situation

FY12 revenue was +4.8%, covered the budget

FY13 revenue needs to be +5% to cover budget

Governor asking for more cuts (3%)

For USG, he wants $54M in FY13 and another $54M in
FY14 (total annualized cut of $108M)

Georgia Budget Situation

For FY12 we had

Individual income taxes +6.3%

Sales taxes +4.8%

Corporate income taxes -12.1%

Gas taxes +9.1%

Governor’s plan is very cautious

Wants to make sure he is not cutting in election year.

Commodity Prices
DBA = gen ag commodity prices, JJG = grains (C, S, W), COW = cattle and hogs,
BAL = cotton prices

Ag exports are staying strong

Farm credit is healthy

Farm income, stable and variable

So, all together …

Economy is more good than bad as long as you have a job.

No big changes between now and November

Everybody is waiting to know what the rules of the game will be.