14. Stochastic Processes Introduction Let denote the random outcome of an experiment. To every such outcome suppose a waveform X (t, ) X (t , ) is assigned. The collection of such X (t, ) waveforms form a X (t, ) stochastic process. The set of { k } and the time X (t, ) index t can be continuous X (t, ) or discrete (countably t 0 t t infinite or finite) as well. Fig. 14.1 For fixed i S (the set of all experimental outcomes), X (t , ) is a specific time function. For fixed t, X 1 X (t1 , i ) n k 2 1 1 2 is a random variable. The ensemble of all such realizations X (t , ) over time represents the stochastic 1 PILLAI/Cha process X(t). (see Fig 14.1). For example X (t ) a cos( 0t ), where is a uniformly distributed random variable in (0, 2 ), represents a stochastic process. Stochastic processes are everywhere: Brownian motion, stock market fluctuations, various queuing systems all represent stochastic phenomena. If X(t) is a stochastic process, then for fixed t, X(t) represents a random variable. Its distribution function is given by FX ( x, t ) P{X (t ) x} (14-1) Notice that FX ( x, t ) depends on t, since for a different t, we obtain a different random variable. Further dFX ( x, t ) (14-2) f X ( x, t ) dx represents the first-order probability density function of the 2 process X(t). PILLAI/Cha For t = t1 and t = t2, X(t) represents two different random variables X1 = X(t1) and X2 = X(t2) respectively. Their joint distribution is given by FX ( x1 , x2 , t1 , t2 ) P{X (t1 ) x1 , X (t2 ) x2 } (14-3) and 2 FX ( x1 , x2 , t1 , t2 ) f X ( x1 , x2 , t1 , t2 ) x1 x2 (14-4) represents the second-order density function of the process X(t). Similarly f X ( x1 , x2 , xn , t1 , t2 , tn ) represents the nth order density function of the process X(t). Complete specification of the stochastic process X(t) requires the knowledge of f X ( x1 , x2 , xn , t1 , t2 , tn ) for all ti , i 1, 2, , n and for all n. (an almost impossible task in reality). 3 PILLAI/Cha Mean of a Stochastic Process: (t ) E{ X (t )} x f ( x, t )dx X (14-5) represents the mean value of a process X(t). In general, the mean of a process can depend on the time index t. Autocorrelation function of a process X(t) is defined as RXX (t1 , t2 ) E{ X (t1 ) X * (t2 )} x1 x2* f X ( x1 , x2 , t1 , t2 )dx1dx2 (14-6) and it represents the interrelationship between the random variables X1 = X(t1) and X2 = X(t2) generated from the process X(t). Properties: 1. R (t , t ) R* (t , t ) [ E{ X (t ) X * (t )}]* XX 1 2 XX 2 1 2 1 (14-7) 2 2. RXX (t, t ) E{| X (t ) | } 0. (Average instantaneous power) 4 PILLAI/Cha 3. RXX (t1 , t2 ) represents a nonnegative definite function, i.e., for any n set of constants{ai }i 1 n n * a a i j RXX (ti , t j ) 0. (14-8) i 1 j 1 n Eq. (14-8) follows by noticing that E{| Y | } 0 for Y ai X (ti ). i 1 The function (14-9) CXX (t1 , t2 ) RXX (t1 , t2 ) X (t1 ) *X (t2 ) 2 represents the autocovariance function of the process X(t). Example 14.1 Let T z T X (t )dt. Then T T T T E [| z | ] T T E{ X (t1 ) X * (t2 )}dt1dt2 2 T T R XX (t1 , t2 )dt1dt2 (14-10) 5 PILLAI/Cha Example 14.2 X (t ) a cos( 0t ), ~ U (0,2 ). (14-11) This gives (t ) E{ X (t )} aE{cos( 0 t )} a cos 0 t E{cos } a sin 0 t E{sin } 0, X since E{cos } 1 2 2 0 (14-12) cos d 0 E{sin }. Similarly R XX (t1 , t2 ) a 2 E{cos( 0 t1 ) cos( 0 t2 )} a2 E{cos 0 (t1 t2 ) cos( 0 (t1 t2 ) 2 )} 2 a2 cos 0 (t1 t2 ). (14-13) 2 6 PILLAI/Cha Stationary Stochastic Processes Stationary processes exhibit statistical properties that are invariant to shift in the time index. Thus, for example, second-order stationarity implies that the statistical properties of the pairs {X(t1) , X(t2) } and {X(t1+c) , X(t2+c)} are the same for any c. Similarly first-order stationarity implies that the statistical properties of X(ti) and X(ti+c) are the same for any c. In strict terms, the statistical properties are governed by the joint probability density function. Hence a process is nth-order Strict-Sense Stationary (S.S.S) if f X ( x1 , x2 , xn , t1 , t2 , tn ) f X ( x1 , x2 , xn , t1 c, t2 c, tn c) (14-14) for any c, where the left side represents the joint density function of the random variables X 1 X (t1 ), X 2 X (t2 ), , X n X (tn ) and the right side corresponds to the joint density function of the random variables X 1 X (t1 c), X 2 X (t2 c), , X n X (tn c). A process X(t) is said to be strict-sense stationary if (14-14) is 7 true for all ti , i 1, 2, , n, n 1, 2, and any c. PILLAI/Cha For a first-order strict sense stationary process, from (14-14) we have f X ( x, t ) f X ( x, t c ) (14-15) for any c. In particular c = – t gives f X ( x, t ) f X ( x) (14-16) i.e., the first-order density of X(t) is independent of t. In that case E[ X (t )] x f ( x )dx , a constant. (14-17) Similarly, for a second-order strict-sense stationary process we have from (14-14) f X ( x1 , x2 , t1 , t2 ) f X ( x1 , x2 , t1 c, t2 c) for any c. For c = – t2 we get f X ( x1 , x2 , t1 , t2 ) f X ( x1 , x2 , t1 t2 ) (14-18) 8 PILLAI/Cha i.e., the second order density function of a strict sense stationary process depends only on the difference of the time indices t1 t2 . In that case the autocorrelation function is given by RXX (t1 , t2 ) E{ X (t1 ) X * (t2 )} x1 x2* f X ( x1 , x2 , t1 t2 )dx1dx2 RXX (t1 t2 ) RXX ( ) RXX* ( ), (14-19) i.e., the autocorrelation function of a second order strict-sense stationary process depends only on the difference of the time indices t1 t2 . Notice that (14-17) and (14-19) are consequences of the stochastic process being first and second-order strict sense stationary. On the other hand, the basic conditions for the first and second order stationarity – Eqs. (14-16) and (14-18) – are usually difficult to verify. In that case, we often resort to a looser definition of stationarity, known as Wide-Sense Stationarity (W.S.S), by making use of 9 PILLAI/Cha (14-17) and (14-19) as the necessary conditions. Thus, a process X(t) is said to be Wide-Sense Stationary if (i) E{ X (t )} (14-20) and (14-21) (ii) E{ X (t1 ) X * (t2 )} RXX (t1 t2 ), i.e., for wide-sense stationary processes, the mean is a constant and the autocorrelation function depends only on the difference between the time indices. Notice that (14-20)-(14-21) does not say anything about the nature of the probability density functions, and instead deal with the average behavior of the process. Since (14-20)-(14-21) follow from (14-16) and (14-18), strict-sense stationarity always implies wide-sense stationarity. However, the converse is not true in general, the only exception being the Gaussian process. This follows, since if X(t) is a Gaussian process, then by definition X 1 X (t1 ), X 2 X (t2 ), , X n X (tn ) are jointly Gaussian random variables for any t1 , t2 , tn whose joint characteristic function 10 PILLAI/Cha is given by n (1 , 2 , , n ) e j n ( tk )k C k 1 XX ( ti ,tk )i k / 2 l ,k (14-22) X where C XX (ti , tk ) is as defined on (14-9). If X(t) is wide-sense stationary, then using (14-20)-(14-21) in (14-22) we get n (1 , 2 , , n ) e j k 1 k 12 n n C 11 k 1 XX ( ti tk )i k (14-23) X and hence if the set of time indices are shifted by a constant c to generate a new set of jointly Gaussian random variables X 1 X (t1 c), X 2 X (t2 c),, X n X (tn c) then their joint characteristic n { X } function is identical to (14-23). Thus the set of random variables i i 1 n and { X i}i 1 have the same joint probability distribution for all n and all c, establishing the strict sense stationarity of Gaussian processes from its wide-sense stationarity. To summarize if X(t) is a Gaussian process, then wide-sense stationarity (w.s.s) strict-sense stationarity (s.s.s). Notice that since the joint p.d.f of Gaussian random variables depends 11 only on their second order statistics, which is also the basis PILLAI/Cha for wide sense stationarity, we obtain strict sense stationarity as well. From (14-12)-(14-13), (refer to Example 14.2), the process X (t ) a cos( 0t ), in (14-11) is wide-sense stationary, but t not strict-sense stationary. 2 Similarly if X(t) is a zero mean wide sense stationary process in Example 14.1, then z2 in (14-10) reduces to T t1 t 2 T T t1 T T z2 E{| z |2 } T T R (t1 t2 )dt1dt2 . 2T XX As t1, t2 varies from –T to +T, t1 t2 varies Fig. 14.2 from –2T to + 2T. Moreover RXX ( ) is a constant over the shaded region in Fig 14.2, whose area is given by ( 0) 1 1 (2T ) 2 (2T d ) 2 (2T )d 2 2 and hence the above integral reduces to 2T 2 t R ( )(2T | |) d 2 z XX 1 2T 2T | | R ( )( 1 2 T ) d . 2t XX (14-24) 12 PILLAI/Cha Systems with Stochastic Inputs A deterministic system1 transforms each input waveform X (t , i ) into an output waveform Y (t , i ) T [ X (t , i )] by operating only on the time variable t. Thus a set of realizations at the input corresponding to a process X(t) generates a new set of realizations {Y (t , )} at the output associated with a new process Y(t). Y (t, i ) X (t, i ) X (t ) T [] (t ) Y t t Fig. 14.3 Our goal is to study the output process statistics in terms of the input process statistics and the system function. 1A stochastic system on the other hand operates on both the variables t and . 13 PILLAI/Cha Deterministic Systems Memoryless Systems Systems with Memory Y (t ) g[ X (t )] Time-varying systems Time-Invariant systems Linear systems Y (t ) L[ X (t )] Fig. 14.3 Linear-Time Invariant (LTI) systems X (t ) h(t ) Y (t ) h(t ) X ( )d LTI system h( ) X (t )d . 14 PILLAI/Cha Memoryless Systems: The output Y(t) in this case depends only on the present value of the input X(t). i.e., Y (t ) g{ X (t )} (14-25) Strict-sense stationary input Memoryless system Strict-sense stationary output. (see (9-76), Text for a proof.) Wide-sense stationary input Memoryless system X(t) stationary Gaussian with RXX ( ) Memoryless system Fig. 14.4 Need not be stationary in any sense. Y(t) stationary,but not Gaussian with RXY ( ) RXX ( ). (see (14-26)). 15 PILLAI/Cha Theorem: If X(t) is a zero mean stationary Gaussian process, and Y(t) = g[X(t)], where g () represents a nonlinear memoryless device, then RXY ( ) RXX ( ), E{g ( X )}. (14-26) Proof: RXY ( ) E{ X (t )Y (t )} E[ X (t ) g{ X (t )}] x1 g ( x2 ) f X1X 2 (x1 , x2 )dx1dx2 (14-27) where X 1 X (t ), X 2 X (t ) are jointly Gaussian random variables, and hence f X1X 2 ( x1 , x2 ) 1 2 | A| X ( X 1 , X 2 )T , e x* A1 x / 2 x ( x1 , x2 )T R (0) R ( ) * * A E{ X X } LL R ( ) R (0) XX XX XX XX 16 PILLAI/Cha where L is an upper triangular factor matrix with positive diagonal entries. i.e., l11 l12 L . 0 l22 Consider the transformation Z L1 X ( Z1 , Z 2 )T , z L1 x ( z1 , z2 )T so that 1 *1 1 *1 E{Z Z } L E{ X X }L L AL I * * and hence Z1, Z2 are zero mean independent Gaussian random variables. Also x L z x1 l11 z1 l12 z2 , x2 l22 z2 and hence x A1 x z L* A1 Lz z z z12 z22 . * * * The Jacobaian of the transformation is given by 17 PILLAI/Cha | J || L1 || A |1/ 2 . Hence substituting these into (14-27), we obtain RXY ( ) (l 11 z g (l l11 l12 z1 l12 z2 ) g (l22 z2 ) 1 1 | J | 2 | A|1/ 2 22 z2 ) f z1 ( z1 ) f z2 ( z2 )dz1dz2 22 z2 ) f z1 ( z1 ) f z2 ( z2 )dz1dz2 1 z g (l 2 e z12 / 2 z22 / 2 0 e l11 z1 f z1 ( z1 )dz1 g (l22 z2 ) f z2 ( z2 )dz2 l12 z2 g (l22 z2 ) f z2 ( z2 ) dz2 1 2 ll 2 12 22 ug (u ) 1 2 where u l22 z2 . This gives e e z / 2 2 2 u 2 / 2 l222 du, 18 PILLAI/Cha fu ( u ) RXY ( ) l12 l22 g (u ) u l222 1 2 l222 e u 2 / 2 l222 du df u ( u ) f u ( u ) du RXX ( ) g (u ) f u(u )du, since A LL* gives l12 l22 RXX ( ). Hence 0 RXY ( ) RXX ( ){ g (u ) f u (u ) | g (u ) f u (u )du} RXX ( ) E{g ( X )} RXX ( ), the desired result, where E [ g ( X )]. Thus if the input to a memoryless device is stationary Gaussian, the cross correlation function between the input and the output is proportional to the input autocorrelation function. 19 PILLAI/Cha Linear Systems: L[] represents a linear system if L{a1 X (t1 ) a2 X (t2 )} a1 L{X (t1 )} a2 L{X (t2 )}. (14-28) Y (t ) L{ X (t )} (14-29) Let represent the output of a linear system. Time-Invariant System: L[] represents a time-invariant system if Y (t ) L{ X (t )} L{ X (t t0 )} Y (t t0 ) (14-30) i.e., shift in the input results in the same shift in the output also. If L[] satisfies both (14-28) and (14-30), then it corresponds to a linear time-invariant (LTI) system. LTI systems can be uniquely represented in terms of their output to h (t ) Impulse a delta function (t ) LTI h (t ) response of the system t Impulse Fig. 14.5 Impulse response 20 PILLAI/Cha then Y (t ) X (t ) X (t ) t LTI Fig. 14.6 arbitrary input t Y (t ) Y (t ) h (t ) X ( )d h ( ) X (t )d (14-31) Eq. (14-31) follows by expressing X(t) as X (t ) X ( ) (t )d (14-32) and applying (14-28) and (14-30) to Y (t ) L{ X (t )}. Thus Y (t ) L{ X (t )} L{ X ( ) (t )d } L{ X ( ) (t )d } By Linearity X ( ) L{ (t )}d By Time-invariance X ( )h(t )d h( ) X (t )d . (14-33) 21 PILLAI/Cha Output Statistics: Using (14-33), the mean of the output process is given by (t ) E{Y (t )} E{ X ( )h(t )d } Y X ( )h (t )d X (t ) h (t ). (14-34) Similarly the cross-correlation function between the input and output processes is given by R XY (t1 , t2 ) E{ X (t1 )Y * (t2 )} E{ X (t1 ) X * (t2 )h * ( )d } E{ X (t1 ) X * (t2 )}h * ( )d R XX (t1 , t2 )h * ( )d R XX (t1 , t2 ) h * (t2 ). Finally the output autocorrelation function is given by (14-35) 22 PILLAI/Cha RYY (t1 , t2 ) E{Y (t1 )Y * (t2 )} E{ X (t1 )h( )d Y * (t2 )} E{ X (t1 )Y * (t2 )}h( )d R XY (t1 , t2 )h( )d R XY (t1 , t2 ) h(t1 ), (14-36) or RYY (t1 , t2 ) RXX (t1 , t2 ) h* (t2 ) h(t1 ). (t ) X (14-37) (t ) h(t) Y (a) R XY ( t1 ,t 2 ) h*(t2) RXX (t1 , t2 ) (b) Fig. 14.7 h(t1) RYY (t1 , t2 ) 23 PILLAI/Cha In particular if X(t) is wide-sense stationary, then we have X (t ) X so that from (14-34) (t ) Y X h( )d X (14-38) c, a constant. Also RXX (t1 , t2 ) RXX (t1 t2 ) so that (14-35) reduces to R XY (t1 , t2 ) R XX (t1 t2 )h * ( )d R XX ( ) h * ( ) R XY ( ), t1 t2 . (14-39) Thus X(t) and Y(t) are jointly w.s.s. Further, from (14-36), the output autocorrelation simplifies to RYY (t1 , t2 ) RXY (t1 t2 )h( )d , RXY ( ) h( ) RYY ( ). t1 t2 (14-40) From (14-37), we obtain RYY ( ) RXX ( ) h* ( ) h( ). (14-41) 24 PILLAI/Cha From (14-38)-(14-40), the output process is also wide-sense stationary. This gives rise to the following representation X (t ) wide-sense stationary process LTI system h(t) Y (t ) wide-sense stationary process. (a) X (t ) strict-sense stationary process LTI system h(t) (b) X (t ) Gaussian process (also stationary) Linear system (c) Fig. 14.8 Y (t ) strict-sense stationary process (see Text for proof ) Y (t ) Gaussian process (also stationary) 25 PILLAI/Cha White Noise Process: W(t) is said to be a white noise process if RWW (t1 , t2 ) q(t1 ) (t1 t2 ), (14-42) i.e., E[W(t1) W*(t2)] = 0 unless t1 = t2. W(t) is said to be wide-sense stationary (w.s.s) white noise if E[W(t)] = constant, and RWW (t1 , t2 ) q (t1 t2 ) q ( ). (14-43) If W(t) is also a Gaussian process (white Gaussian process), then all of its samples are independent random variables (why?). White noise W(t) LTI h(t) Fig. 14.9 For w.s.s. white noise input W(t), we have Colored noise N (t ) h ( t ) W (t ) 26 PILLAI/Cha E[ N (t )] W h( )d , a constant (14-44) and Rnn ( ) q ( ) h* ( ) h( ) qh* ( ) h( ) q ( ) (14-45) where ( ) h( ) h ( ) h( )h* ( )d . * (14-46) Thus the output of a white noise process through an LTI system represents a (colored) noise process. Note: White noise need not be Gaussian. “White” and “Gaussian” are two different concepts! 27 PILLAI/Cha Upcrossings and Downcrossings of a stationary Gaussian process: Consider a zero mean stationary Gaussian process X(t) with autocorrelation function RXX ( ). An upcrossing over the mean value occurs whenever the realization X(t) passes through zero with X (t ) positive slope. Let t Upcrossings represent the probability of such an upcrossing in t the interval (t , t t ). We wish to determine . Fig. 14.10 Downcrossing Since X(t) is a stationary Gaussian process, its derivative process X (t ) is also zero mean stationary Gaussian with autocorrelation function ( ) (see (9-101)-(9-106), Text). Further X(t) and X (t ) RX X ( ) RXX are jointly Gaussian stationary processes, and since (see (9-106), Text) dR XX ( ) R XX ( ) , 28 d PILLAI/Cha we have dRXX ( ) dRXX ( ) RXX ( ) RXX ( ) d ( ) d (14-47) which for 0 gives RXX (0) 0 E[ X (t ) X (t )] 0 (14-48) i.e., the jointly Gaussian zero mean random variables X 1 X (t ) and X 2 X (t ) (14-49) are uncorrelated and hence independent with variances 12 R (0) and 22 R (0) R (0) 0 XX X X (14-50) XX respectively. Thus f X1X 2 ( x1 , x2 ) f X ( x1 ) f X ( x2 ) 1 2 1 2 e x2 x2 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 To determine , the probability of upcrossing rate, . (14-51) 29 PILLAI/Cha we argue as follows: In an interval(t , t t ), the realization moves from X(t) = X1 to X (t t ) X (t ) X (t )t X 1 X 2 t, and hence the realization intersects with the zero level somewhere in that interval if X 1 0, X 2 0, and X (t t ) X 1 X 2 t 0 i.e., X 1 X 2 t. Hence the probability of upcrossing in (t , t t ) is given by t x 2 0 0 x x t f 1 2 X1 X 2 ( x1 , x2 )d x1dx2 (14-52) X (t ) X ( t t ) t X (t ) t t t Fig. 14.11 0 f X 2 ( x2 )d x2 x t f X1 ( x1 )d x1 . 2 (14-53) Differentiating both sides of (14-53) with respect to t , we get 0 f ( x2 )x2 f ( x2 t )dx2 X2 X1 and letting t 0, Eq. (14-54) reduce to (14-54) 30 PILLAI/Cha 0 1 x2 f X ( x2 ) f X (0)dx2 x2 f X ( x2 )dx2 0 2R XX (0) 1 1 1 ( 2 2 / ) 2R XX (0) 2 2 (0) R XX R XX (0) (14-55) [where we have made use of (5-78), Text]. There is an equal probability for downcrossings, and hence the total probability for crossing the zero line in an interval (t , t t ) equals 0 t , where 0 1 (0) / RXX (0) 0. RXX (14-56) It follows that in a long interval T, there will be approximately 0T crossings of the mean value. If RXX (0) is large, then the autocorrelation function RXX ( ) decays more rapidly as moves away from zero, implying a large random variation around the origin (mean value) for X(t), and the likelihood of zero crossings should increase with increase in RXX (0), agreeing with (14-56). 31 PILLAI/Cha Discrete Time Stochastic Processes: A discrete time stochastic process Xn = X(nT) is a sequence of random variables. The mean, autocorrelation and auto-covariance functions of a discrete-time process are gives by n E{ X (nT )} (14-57) R(n1 , n2 ) E{ X (n1T ) X * (n2T )} (14-58) C (n1 , n2 ) R(n1 , n2 ) n1 n*2 (14-59) and respectively. As before strict sense stationarity and wide-sense stationarity definitions apply here also. For example, X(nT) is wide sense stationary if E{ X (nT )} , a constant (14-60) and E[ X {(k n )T }X *{(k )T }] R(n ) rn r*n (14-61) 32 PILLAI/Cha i.e., R(n1, n2) = R(n1 – n2) = R*(n2 – n1). The positive-definite property of the autocorrelation sequence in (14-8) can be expressed in terms of certain Hermitian-Toeplitz matrices as follows: Theorem: A sequence {rn } forms an autocorrelation sequence of a wide sense stationary stochastic process if and only if every Hermitian-Toeplitz matrix Tn given by r0 r1 * r1 r0 Tn r* r* n n 1 r2 rn r1 rn 1 * T n r1* r0 (14-62) is non-negative (positive) definite for n 0, 1, 2, , . Proof: Let a [a0 , a1 , , an ]T represent an arbitrary constant vector. Then from (14-62), n n * a Tn a ai ak* rk i (14-63) i 0 k 0 since the Toeplitz character gives (Tn ) i ,k rk i . Using (14-61), 33 PILLAI/Cha Eq. (14-63) reduces to 2 n * * * * a Tn a ai ak E{ X (kT ) X (iT )} E ak X (kT ) 0. (14-64) i 0 k 0 k 0 n n From (14-64), if X(nT) is a wide sense stationary stochastic process then Tn is a non-negative definite matrix for every n 0, 1, 2,, . Similarly the converse also follows from (14-64). (see section 9.4, Text) If X(nT) represents a wide-sense stationary input to a discrete-time system {h(nT)}, and Y(nT) the system output, then as before the cross correlation function satisfies (14-65) RXY (n) RXX (n) h* ( n) and the output autocorrelation function is given by (14-66) RYY (n) RXY (n) h(n) or RYY (n) RXX (n) h* ( n) h(n). (14-67) Thus wide-sense stationarity from input to output is preserved 34 for discrete-time systems also. PILLAI/Cha Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) Processes Consider an input – output representation p q k 1 k 0 X ( n ) a k X ( n k ) bkW ( n k ), (14-68) where X(n) may be considered as the output of a system {h(n)} driven by the input W(n). h(n) W(n) X(n) Z – transform of (14-68) gives Fig.14.12 p X ( z ) ak z k 0 k q W ( z ) bk z k , k 0 a0 1 (14-69) or H ( z ) h(k ) z k k 0 1 2 q X ( z ) b0 b1 z b2 z bq z B( z ) 1 2 p W ( z ) 1 a1 z a2 z a p z A( z ) 35 (14-70) PILLAI/Cha represents the transfer function of the associated system response {h(n)} in Fig 14.12 so that X ( n ) h( n k )W ( k ). (14-71) k 0 Notice that the transfer function H(z) in (14-70) is rational with p poles and q zeros that determine the model order of the underlying system. From (14-68), the output undergoes regression over p of its previous values and at the same time a moving average based on W (n ), W (n 1), , W (n q) of the input over (q + 1) values is added to it, thus generating an Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA (p, q)) process X(n). Generally the input {W(n)} represents a sequence of uncorrelated random variables of zero mean and constant variance W2 so that (14-72) RWW (n) W2 (n). If in addition, {W(n)} is normally distributed then the output {X(n)} also represents a strict-sense stationary normal process. If q = 0, then (14-68) represents an AR(p) process (all-pole 36 process), and if p = 0, then (14-68) represents an MA(q) PILLAI/Cha process (all-zero process). Next, we shall discuss AR(1) and AR(2) processes through explicit calculations. AR(1) process: An AR(1) process has the form (see (14-68)) X (n ) aX (n 1) W (n ) (14-73) and from (14-70) the corresponding system transfer 1 n n H ( z) a z 1 1 az n 0 (14-74) provided | a | < 1. Thus h( n ) a n , | a | 1 (14-75) represents the impulse response of an AR(1) stable system. Using (14-67) together with (14-72) and (14-75), we get the output autocorrelation sequence of an AR(1) process to be |n | a RXX ( n ) W2 ( n ) {a n } {a n } W2 a |n| k a k W2 2 1 a k 0 37 (14-76) PILLAI/Cha where we have made use of the discrete version of (14-46). The normalized (in terms of R (0)) output autocorrelation sequence is given by R (n) X (n ) XX a |n| , | n | 0. (14-77) RXX (0) XX It is instructive to compare an AR(1) model discussed above by superimposing a random component to it, which may be an error term associated with observing a first order AR process X(n). Thus Y ( n) X ( n) V ( n) (14-78) where X(n) ~ AR(1) as in (14-73), and V(n) is an uncorrelated random 2 sequence with zero mean and variance V that is also uncorrelated with {W(n)}. From (14-73), (14-78) we obtain the output autocorrelation of the observed process Y(n) to be RYY (n) RXX (n) RVV (n) RXX (n) V2 (n) a |n| 2 W ( n) V 2 1 a 2 (14-79) 38 PILLAI/Cha so that its normalized version is given by RYY ( n ) 1 Y ( n ) |n| RYY (0) c a where n0 n 1, 2, (14-80) 2 c 2 1. 2 2 (1 a ) W W (14-81) V Eqs. (14-77) and (14-80) demonstrate the effect of superimposing an error sequence on an AR(1) model. For non-zero lags, the autocorrelation of the observed sequence {Y(n)}is reduced by a constant factor compared to the original process {X(n)}. From (14-78), the superimposed ( 0) ( 0) 1 error sequence V(n) only affects the corresponding term in Y(n) (k ) (k ) (term by term). However, a particular term in the “input sequence” n 0 k W(n) affects X(n) and Y(n) as well as 39 all subsequent observations. Fig. 14.13 PILLAI/Cha X Y X Y AR(2) Process: An AR(2) process has the form X (n) a1 X (n 1) a2 X (n 2) W (n) (14-82) and from (14-70) the corresponding transfer function is given by 1 b1 b2 1 2 1 1 a1 z a2 z 1 1 z 1 2 z 1 (14-83) h(0) 1, h(1) a1 , h(n) a1h(n 1) a2 h(n 2), n 2 (14-84) H ( z ) h( n) z n 0 n so that and in term of the poles 1 and 2 of the transfer function, from (14-83) we have h(n) b11n b2n2 , n0 (14-85) that represents the impulse response of the system. From (14-84)-(14-85), we also have b1 b2 1, b11 b22 a1. From (14-83), 40 1 2 a1 , 12 a2 , (14-86) PILLAI/Cha and H(z) stable implies | 1 | 1, | 2 | 1. Further, using (14-82) the output autocorrelations satisfy the recursion RXX (n) E{ X (n m) X * (m)} E{[ a1 X (n m 1) a2 X (n m 2)] X * (m)} 0 E{W (n m) X * (m)} (14-87) a1 RXX (n 1) a2 RXX (n 2) and hence their normalized version is given by R (n) X ( n ) XX a1 X ( n 1) a2 X ( n 2). (14-88) RXX (0) By direct calculation using (14-67), the output autocorrelations are given by RXX (n) RWW (n) h* ( n) h(n) W2 h* ( n) h(n) W h* ( n k ) h( k ) 2 k 0 | b1 | ( ) b b ( ) b b ( ) | b2 | ( ) W * 1 12 1 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 2 * n 1 2 * 1 2 * n 1 * 1 2 * n 2 * 1 2 2 * n 2 2 (14-89) 41 PILLAI/Cha where we have made use of (14-85). From (14-89), the normalized output autocorrelations may be expressed as RXX (n) *n *n X ( n) c11 c2 2 (14-90) RXX (0) where c1 and c2 are appropriate constants. Damped Exponentials: When the second order system in (14-83)-(14-85) is real and corresponds to a damped exponential response, the poles are complex conjugate which gives a12 4a2 0 in (14-83). Thus 1 r e j , 2 1* , r 1. (14-91) * j In that case c1 c2 c e in (14-90) so that the normalized correlations there reduce to (n) 2 Re{c } 2cr n cos( n ). X *n 1 1 (14-92) But from (14-86) 1 2 2r cos a1 , r 2 a2 1, (14-93) 42 PILLAI/Cha and hence 2r sin ( a12 4a2 ) 0 which gives (a12 4a2 ) tan . a1 (14-94) Also from (14-88) (1) a1 (0) a2 (1) a1 a2 (1) X X X X so that (1) X a1 2cr cos( ) 1 a2 (14-95) where the later form is obtained from (14-92) with n = 1. But X (0) 1 in (14-92) gives 2c cos 1, or c 1 / 2 cos . (14-96) Substituting (14-96) into (14-92) and (14-95) we obtain the normalized output autocorrelations to be 43 PILLAI/Cha ( n ) ( a2 ) X n/2 cos( n ) , cos a2 1 (14-97) where satisfies cos( ) a 1 cos 1 a2 1 . a2 (14-98) Thus the normalized autocorrelations of a damped second order system with real coefficients subject to random uncorrelated impulses satisfy (14-97). More on ARMA processes From (14-70) an ARMA (p, q) system has only p + q + 1 independent coefficients, (ak , k 1 p, bi , i 0 q), and hence its impulse response sequence {hk} also must exhibit a similar dependence among them. In fact according to P. Dienes (The Taylor series, 1931), 44 PILLAI/Cha an old result due to Kronecker1 (1881) states that the necessary and sufficient condition for H ( z ) k 0 hk z k to represent a rational system (ARMA) is that det H n 0, where nN (for all sufficiently large n), h0 h1 h2 h h h3 1 2 Hn h h n n 1 hn 2 hn hn 1 . h2 n (14-99) (14-100) i.e., In the case of rational systems for all sufficiently large n, the Hankel matrices Hn in (14-100) all have the same rank. The necessary part easily follows from (14-70) by cross multiplying and equating coefficients of like powers of z k , k 0, 1, 2, . 1Among other things “God created the integers and the rest is the work of man.” (Leopold Kronecker) 45 PILLAI/Cha This gives b0 h0 b1 h0 a1 h1 bq h0 aq h1aq 1 0 h0 aq i h1aq i 1 (14-101) hm hq i 1a1 hq i , i 1. For systems with q p 1, letting i p q, p q 1, in (14-102) we get h0 a p h1a p 1 h p a p h p 1a p 1 (14-102) , 2p q h p 1a1 h p 0 h2 p 1a1 h2 p 0 which gives det Hp = 0. Similarly i p q 1, (14-103) gives 46 PILLAI/Cha h0 a p 1 h1a p h p 1 0 h1a p 1 h2 a p hp 2 0 h p 1 a p 1 h p 2 a p h2 p 2 0, (14-104) and that gives det Hp+1 = 0 etc. (Notice that a p k 0, k 1, 2, ) (For sufficiency proof, see Dienes.) It is possible to obtain similar determinantial conditions for ARMA systems in terms of Hankel matrices generated from its output autocorrelation sequence. Referring back to the ARMA (p, q) model in (14-68), the input white noise process w(n) there is uncorrelated with its own past sample values as well as the past values of the system output. This gives E{w(n) w* (n k )} 0, k 1 (14-105) E{w(n) x* (n k )} 0, k 1. (14-106) 47 PILLAI/Cha Together with (14-68), we obtain ri E{x ( n ) x * ( n i )} p q k 1 k 0 ak {x ( n k ) x * ( n i )} bk {w( n k ) w* ( n i )} p q ak ri k bk {w( n k ) x * (n i )} k 1 (14-107) k 0 and hence in general p ak ri k ri 0, iq (14-108) i q 1. (14-109) k 1 and p ak ri k ri 0, k 1 Notice that (14-109) is the same as (14-102) with {hk} replaced 48 PILLAI/Cha by {rk} and hence the Kronecker conditions for rational systems can be expressed in terms of its output autocorrelations as well. Thus if X(n) ~ ARMA (p, q) represents a wide sense stationary stochastic process, then its output autocorrelation sequence {rk} satisfies (14-110) rank D p 1 rank D p k p, k 0, where r0 r1 r2 r r r3 2 1 Dk r r k k 1 rk 2 rk rk 1 r2 k (14-111) represents the (k 1) (k 1) Hankel matrix generated from r0 , r1 , , rk , , r2 k . It follows that for ARMA (p, q) systems, we have det Dn 0, for all sufficiently large n. (14-112) 49 PILLAI/Cha