War and Demographics
By: Scott Dai
Introduction
To identify and analyze the impact of demographics on the
propensity of war in a multi-cultural comparative study.
Why are some cultures more warlike than others? Could
the demographics of a population be a major factor in the
aggressiveness of that population?
Hypothesis
 Propensity for war is directly correlated to
increase in population density.
 Larger communities tend to be more
aggressive.
 The more contact a community has with its
neighbor the more likely is conflict.
Variables
Community size
v63
Population density
v64
Contact with
other societies
v787
Hostilities toward other
societies
v780
Group A-1/3
Group A-2/3
Group A-3/3
Frequency of external
war-attacking
v892
Group B-1/3
Group B-2/3
Group B-3/3
Value of warviolence/war against nonmember of the group
v907
Group C-1/3
Group C-2/3
Group C-3/3
Group A-1/3
*
m
C
m
5
0
0
0
0
<
o
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
t
V
1
3
6
7
6
4
1
1
8
H
E
t
o
2
3
2
5
2
3
2
1
8
s
3
1
5
4
3
4
7
M
4
4
2
3
2
1
T
1
5
9
1
3
3
1
1
4
Group A-2/3
V6
C
a
t
0
v
0
p
e
p
0
e
p
1
e
e
r
q
q
q
s
s
.
q
.
.
o
.
/
.
/
m
m
m
m
t
V
1
2
4
6
7
3
3
4
1
8
H
E
t
o
2
1
3
4
2
1
5
2
1
8
s
o
3
1
5
1
2
4
4
1
7
M
4
1
4
2
1
2
1
1
1
T
7
6
3
2
8
4
8
3
4
Group A-3/3
s
b
C
i
t
o
e
a
o
q
t
V
1
6
9
3
8
H
E
t
o
2
3
4
1
8
s
3
8
7
2
7
M
4
2
5
4
1
T
9
5
0
4
Analysis of Group A
 Cross-tab data contributes to the theory of increased




hostilities with increased community size and density.
Strong indication of hostilities with frequent contact with
others.
Degree of hostility is equally spread in communities with
low population size and density.
Dataset favors positive war-demographic connection.
Group-A does not contradict the hypothesis.
Group B-1/3
n
C
m
5
0
0
0
0
<
o
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
t
V
1
3
5
6
5
3
3
3
3
1
o
2
7
8
6
3
2
5
1
A
3
5
1
7
9
8
4
1
5
I
n
T
5
4
9
7
3
2
4
3
7
Group B-2/3
g
C
a
t
v
0
p
p
e
0
e
p
1
e
e
r
s
s
q
.
.
o
.
.
/
/
.
m
m
m
t
m
V
1
6
5
2
3
7
1
7
1
o
2
2
5
1
3
8
8
3
0
A
3
5
0
9
4
3
7
6
4
I
n
T
3
0
2
0
8
6
6
5
Group B-3/3
k
a
b
C
i
t
e
o
a
o
q
V
1
3
3
6
o
2
8
8
3
9
A
3
1
3
0
4
I
n
T
2
4
3
9
Analysis of Group B
 Direct and strong connection between frequency of




external war and community size.
Positive connection between population density and war
frequency.
More contact with other societies is directly connected
with higher frequency of war.
Dataset favors negative war-demographics connection.
Group-B does not contradict the hypothesis.
Group C-1/3
e
r
C
m
0
5
0
0
0
0
<
o
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
t
V
1
7
0
3
0
9
6
4
3
2
V
V
N
2
7
8
1
9
0
6
1
G
3
8
3
3
5
3
1
3
E
T
2
1
7
4
2
3
4
3
6
r
l
Group C-2/3
s
C
a
t
p
5
0
v
0
p
p
e
0
e
p
1
e
e
r
q
T
q
s
s
q
.
.
.
.
o
/
/
.
m
m
m
m
t
V
1
1
7
3
8
7
9
5
2
8
2
V
V
N
2
5
9
8
0
6
6
6
6
1
G
3
2
7
3
3
5
4
2
E
T
1
1
4
9
9
0
5
6
8
8
5
o
Group C-3/3
M
o
w
C
i
t
e
c
e
o
a
o
q
V
1
4
0
4
8
V
V
N
2
8
9
5
2
G
3
6
2
3
1
E
T
8
1
2
1
Analysis of Group C
 Overwhelmingly positive connection between high value




of war and frequent contact.
Larger community size parallels societies that highly value
war.
Increased population density correlates weakly, but in a
positive manner, with higher value of war.
Dataset favors positive war-demographics connection.
Group-C does not contradict the hypothesis.
Conclusion
 Propensity for war does not necessary have a
connection with population density. The data does
not conclusively support or exclude the theory.
 Larger communities does become more war-like,
although not necessarily in every case.
 High rate of contact parallels higher
aggressiveness.
 Demographics is highly likely a significant
contributor in the chance of war.