Demographic Transition
SOC 370: Social
Change
Dr. Kimberly Martin
What is Demography?
• Demographics = the study of population
characteristics
• Demographics studies factors like:
– Size
– Birth rates
– Morbidity rates
– Mortality rates
– Geographical distribution
– Marriage patterns
– Migration patterns
World Population
10,000 BC – 2000 AD
Demography and Development
• There is a very clear demographic pattern that
accompanies economic development from
traditional (peripheral) societies to industrialized
(core) societies
• Four stages
– Pre-Modern = Traditional societies with stable
populations
– Modernizing = Beginning industrial and urbanization
societies see a sharp population increase
– Modern = Industrialized societies have sharp
population increases that level off after they have
achieved full industrialization
– Post-Modern = post industrial societies population
size is stable
Stage One Profile: Angola
Demographic Pyramids:
Four Stages of DTR
Each pyramid is a snapshot of what a population looks like at a specific moment in time
The Value of Children
• As the value of children declines, people
generally have fewer children.
• As the cost of raising a successful child
goes up, people generally have fewer
children.
• The better educated women are, the fewer
children they generally have.
Factors Affecting Fertility Rates
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Pronatalist policies and antinatalist policies from government
Existing age-sex structure
Availability of family planning services
Social and religious beliefs - especially in relation to contraception
and abortion
Female literacy levels
Economic prosperity (although in theory when the economy is doing
well families can afford to have more children in practice the higher
the economic prosperity the lower the birth rate).
Poverty levels – children can be seen as an economic resource in
developing countries as they can earn money.
Infant Mortality Rate – a family may have more children if a country's
IMR is high as it is likely some of those children will die.
Urbanization
Typical age of marriage
Pension availability
Conflict
Study Guide
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Demographics
Demographic transition
Demographic Profile
Value of children