Task Force Energy: An Update RADM Philip Cullom Director, Energy and Environmental Readiness (N45) 29 March 2011 Prophets of Doom 2 “Two types of choices seem to me to have been crucial in tipping their outcomes towards success or failure: long-term planning, and willingness to reconsider core values.” – Jared Diamond, Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed 3 The Jevons Paradox, Moore’s Law, and Energy Moore’s Law Transistor Count Jevons Paradox Year • Observation (1865): As machines become more fuel efficient, operators consume more fuel • Today’s economists observe the same dynamic with efficiency initiatives • Reducing overall fuel consumption requires culture change or regulation • Observation (1965): Number of transistors on integrated circuit doubles every two years • Enhanced capability typically increases the demand for energy • Advances in technology can be steady and almost inexorable The Navy must address both trends – it must find a way to keep the march of technology and improved efficiencies from just requiring more energy. 4 An Energy Smart Navy Energy Efficient Acquisition Existing Fleet Efficiencies Energy Smart Navy Energy Smart Nation Diverse Energy Resources Culture & Behavior Changes Being “energy smart” – requires a Spartan mindset to sustain the mission… in perpetuity. 5 Energy Efficient Acquisition “Simply put, we cannot think about energy after we get there—wherever there may be. Energy security needs to be one the first things we think about before we deploy another soldier, before we build another ship or plane and before we buy or fill another rucksack. And the demand for energy is not going to ease anytime soon.” – ADM Mike Mullen, CJCS 6 6 Energy Efficient Acquisition PROCESS #/012"3$ #!,$ MDD @AB5)( 5*2+8$-#( )/-23%*= -&C",*-( MS A !"#$%&$'( )*'+,*-( .-"'/0&0(( & MS B 1$23-*'*4/( 5$6$'*78$-#( ' ( ) 9-4&-$$%&-4(:(!"-+;"2#+%&-4( 5$6$'*78$-#( * <%$=)/0#$80(.2>+&0&,*-$$ !-.$ MS C + + + !##$ Current Approach Enables Energy Intensive Systems Increased Energy Requirement Analysis of Alternatives (AoA) Efficiency Capability Requirement Integrated System + )/0#$80(.2>+&0&,*-$$ %!#$ PARADIGM <:5( ?:)( + )+0#"&-8$-#( !"#$ Gate Reviews Future Approach Drive To Reduce Costs Life-cycle Cost Increases Operational Energy Requirement Operational Energy Requirement Capability Requirement Energy Efficiency KPP FBCE AoA Efficiency Initiatives Life-Cycle Costs Integrated System Considering Energy earlier and centering around AoA tradeoffs 7 Retooling the Existing Fleet “Our current force will be with us for decades… We need to leverage improvements in design, propulsion, and mission planning tools to increase those capabilities through improved use of energy.” – Ms. Sharon Burke, ASD, Operational Energy Plans and Programs 8 8 Technology – Maritime & Aviation Efficient Ship Systems Improved Hydrodynamics Example: Solid State Lighting Example: Stern Flaps and Hull Coatings Operations & Policy Research & Development Science & Technology Example: Air Energy Conservation Program Example: Engine Modifications Example: Variable Cycle Engine DDG-51 Hybrid Electric Drive Test Platform: USS TRUXTUN Enhance capability by enabling fuel savings and expanding tactical reach 9 Technology – Expeditionary & Shore Efficient Platforms Efficient Power Generation & Use Alternative Power Sources Example: LCAC, Amphibious Ships Example: On-Board Vehicle Power, ECU Example: GREENS (Solar-Powered Battery) Renewable and Sustainability Energy Efficiency First Navy Culture & Behavior • New Construction / Major Renovations LEED Silver or Equivalent • Recapitalize Existing Infrastructure with More Energy Efficient Systems • Increased Transparency at Individual, Command, and Function Levels • Integrated Technology Strategy: Watch-Partner-Lead • Annual Energy Audits – Building Level Assessments of Opportunities • Technology Enabled (Advanced Meters; SmartGrid Pilot) • Energy Security • Link to Operations Technological solutions in development will enhance capability 10 Diversifying our Energy Resources “As we make our next change – as we lead again in changing the way we power our ships and our aircraft, the naysayers who say it’s too expensive, the technology is just not there – they are going to be proven wrong again because every time we’ve changed we’ve made us a better Navy.” — Mr. Ray Mabus, Secretary of the Navy 11 11 Alternatives – Diversifying the Fuel Mix TODAY TOMORROW Other Alternative Sources Nuclear Renewables Nuclear Wind Solar Grid Power Fuels from Alternative Sources Biomass Grid Power Liquid Petroleum Fuel Liquid Fuel Liquid Petroleum Fuel Liquid Petroleum Fuel Greater diversity of energy sources in the future reduces risk of over-reliance on single sources of energy 12 Alternatives – Test & Certification Milestones F/A-18 Super Hornet April 22, 2010 RCB-X October 22 , 2010 2012 Green Strike Group MH-60S Seahawk November 22, 2010 Allison 501k G/T Generator January 2011 2016 Great Green Fleet • All ships and aircraft in demo certified to run on 50/50 biofuel blend • Each ship will contain full load out of 50/50 biofuel for Ship and Aviation use • CSG will feature fuel saving technologies, e.g. gas turbine improvements, solid state lighting • GGF will include at least one Destroyer featuring Hybrid Electric Drive • CSG will conduct exercise in local operations • CSG will feature additional fuel saving technologies Operational tests demonstrate the viability of biofuel as an off ramp from petroleum while preserving full combat capability of the platform 13 Alternatives – Great Green Fleet DEFG( DEHF( Fit For Purpose Tests DEHH( DEHI( DEHJ( F-76 Diesel Engine Test Boiler Test RHIB JUL 10 RCB-X OCT 10 SHIP ENGINE TESTING Fit For Purpose Tests F/A-18 Flight Test APR 10 Allison 501K Gas Turbine Engine Test Also certifies LM 2500 Ship Demo MH-60S NOV 10 Follow-on Engine Testing F404/414 Engine Test AIRCRAFT ENGINE TESTING Follow-on Flight Tests 14 Culture & Behavior Technology ! + Culture ! = ROI x 2 (?) … A Force Multiplier “Part of what frustrates a young Sailor is that he’s really wedded to gas. When I was a commander, I had a sign put over the console of every one of my air controllers that simply said, ‘think gas.’ You can’t operate in that environment with those types of machines and not always have your mind on that source of energy and power. We have to be able to look at ways to extend the capability, the capacity, the duration of the machines that we operate.” — ADM Gary Roughead, CNO 15 15 Culture Change – Sample Fleet Initiatives AFLOAT • Development of Bridge Dashboard through ICAS − Provides actionable info for optimum system efficiency − Focus on HVAC and gas turbine generators − Validate shore consumption in-port • Portable Fuel Recovery / comp water treatment − Cost avoidance / eliminates waste stream − Payback after one use − Navy-wide application • Expansion of Shipboard Energy Audits • Efficiency Retrofits for Legacy Fleet ASHORE • Real Time Building Metering − Provides actionable data for BEMs − Alternate solution until AMI is fully operational • Building Energy Managers (BEM) − Energy audit included in Zone Inspection checklist − Participate in monthly Regional meetings • Utilities Efficiencies − Increase efficiency of central LP Air system − Business Case Audits to identify efficiency opportunities • Enabled by ICAS (Integrated Condition Assessment System) • Software & hardware • Identifies equipment in need of maintenance or replacement • Permits review of hull, mechanical & electrical data Status: • Pilot completed at Pearl Harbor • 15% energy savings potential identified Way Ahead: • Install remotely programmed t’stats • Train BEMs to use data • Implement metering on additional buildings Fleet demonstrates a sea-shore integrated approach 16 Culture Change – Return to Our Roots Training and Education • Mandate accession training for officers and enlisted that includes energy awareness as a core element Unit Incentives Personnel Incentives • Create Energy Subspecialty Codes for officers and enlisted Energy Efficient Acquisition • Energy efficiency, conservation, and leadership recognized at unit level afloat and ashore • Incorporate energy in the Analysis of Alternatives … A Spartan Warrior Ethos 17 Our Challenges Energy Security & Sustainability WARGAMING “Sea control of logistics lanes, as well as defense of related logistics bases, were as important or more important than sea control of the main objective area, as secure logistics were key to being able to maintain a seaborne presence and continue the sea control fight.” - Global ’09 Summary 456789$:6;<7=>9$ .??<76$1@A=B=>9$ 4CDE5F$,6E;G$ H7665$3@@>D7=5>$ 18 18 Changing Paradigms Tactical Advantage Do we live in the Anthropocene Epoch? Questions? Carbonate available for the growth of coral Optimal Late 1800s Low Extremely low By 2100 In the late 1800s, when fossil-fuel carbon dioxide began to pile up rapidly in the atmosphere and acidify the ocean, tropical corals weren't yet affected. But today carbonate levels have dropped substantially near the Poles; by 2100 they may be too low even in the tropics for reefs to survive. Backups 22 Navy Energy Goals Sail the Great Green Fleet 50% Alternative Energy by 2020 50% Less Petroleum in Commercial Vehicles by 2015 50% Net Zero Installations by 2020 2012 Green Strike Group Demo 2016 Great Green Fleet Sail Energy Efficient Acquisition 23 Energy Efficient Acquisition Considering Energy earlier and centering around AoA tradeoffs 24 Acquisition – Breaking the Paradigm Current Approach Enables Energy Intensive Systems Design Cycle Drive To Reduce Costs Efficiency Increased Energy Requirement Capability Requirement Life-cycle Cost Increases Future Approach Operational Energy Requirement Capability Requirement Energy Efficiency KPP FBCE AoA Efficiency Initiatives Life-Cycle Costs Integrated System Analysis of Alternatives (AoA) Operational Energy Requirement Capability requirements drive increased energy demand and life-cycle costs Integrated System Capability requirements balanced with operational energy requirements 25 25 System Optimization Navy Ships Commercial Vehicles Improved Materials Reduced Drag Efficient ship systems Advanced/hybrid propulsion Integrated weapons systems System of Systems • Technological advancements can have compounding effect – Small advances add to significant achievement • Some advancements facilitate complete departure from traditional design Fundamentally Reinvent the Way We Build New Systems 26 Power System Requirements for the Next Generation Laser Self-Defense System High Power Radar Electromagnetic Railgun Free Electron Laser System Integrated Motor Propulsor • New systems come with high power demands • Efficiency advances needed to accommodate capability advances • NGIPS program develops efficient power generation, distribution and control concepts to provide power for ship systems 27 Technology and Potential Risks Technology solutions may be associated with new risks… Solutions Potential Risks New Technologies New Resource Challenges Biofuels Land Use Issues Renewables Electric Reliability Issues Smart Grid Cyber Vulnerabilities The Navy and strategic partners must consider and address potential risks to ensure overall improvement to national security 28