2008 Two Notch Road Retail Analysis
Columbia, SC
An Analysis of the Two Notch Road Retail Corridor in Columbia,
SC
March 2008
Table of Contents
I.
Two Notch Corridor Overview
II.
Two Notch South
III.
Two Notch North
IV.
Summary
V.
Appendix
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Two Notch Road Retail Analysis
Page 1
Two Notch Corridor Overview
Two
Two Notch
Notch North
North Overview
Overview
The
The Two
Two Notch
Notch corridor
corridor extends
extends from
from the
the intersection
intersection
of
Two
Notch
Road
(Route
1)
and
Taylor
of Two Notch Road (Route 1) and Taylor
Street/Forest
Street/Forest Drive
Drive (Route
(Route 12
12 )) in
in downtown
downtown
Columbia
to
the
intersection
of
Two
Columbia to the intersection of Two Notch
Notch Road
Road
(Route
1)
and
I-20.
(Route 1) and I-20.
Two
Two Notch
Notch South
South is
is the
the section
section of
of the
the corridor
corridor below
below
West
Beltline
Road
(Route
16).
Most
of
this
section
West Beltline Road (Route 16). Most of this section
of
of the
the corridor
corridor is
is within
within the
the city
city limits.
limits.
Two
Two Notch
Notch North
North is
is the
the section
section of
of the
the corridor
corridor above
above
West
West Beltline
Beltline Road
Road (Route
(Route 16).
16). The
The majority
majority of
of this
this
part
of
the
corridor
is
not
within
the
city
limits.
part of the corridor is not within the city limits.
The
The primary
primary retail
retail segments
segments which
which this
this study
study analyzes
analyzes
are
apparel
and
apparel
services,
household
are apparel and apparel services, household
furnishings
furnishings and
and electronics,
electronics, personal
personal care
care and
and
services,
and
eating
and
drinking
places.
These
services, and eating and drinking places. These
categories
categories were
were chosen
chosen in
in order
order to
to focus
focus the
the
analysis
analysis and
and because
because these
these are
are the
the retail
retail categories
categories
which
which would
would best
best enhance
enhance the
the current
current retail
retail
environment.
environment.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Two Notch Road Retail Analysis
Page 2
Methodology/Term Definitions
Summary
Summary
In
In order
order to
to calculate
calculate the
the retail
retail potential
potential of
of the
the
Two
Two Notch
Notch corridor,
corridor, ERA
ERA has
has analyzed
analyzed the
the
demand
demand generated
generated by
by several
several market
market
segments.
segments. These
These segments
segments are
are residents
residents
and
and office
office employees
employees within
within the
the primary
primary
trade
area.
Students,
Inflow,
sales
trade area. Students, Inflow, sales to
to
persons
persons outside
outside the
the trade
trade area,
area, are
are
calculated
calculated as
as aa percentage
percentage of
of sales.
sales.
The
The purpose
purpose of
of this
this study
study is
is to
to analyze
analyze retail
retail
sales,
demand,
and
opportunities
along
sales, demand, and opportunities along the
the
corridor
corridor in
in order
order to
to suggest
suggest ways
ways through
through
which
which the
the retail
retail environment
environment can
can be
be
improved.
Because
of
the
limited
retail
improved. Because of the limited retail
offerings
offerings and
and consumer
consumer markets
markets in
in the
the City
City
of
Columbia,
this
may
entail
drawing
of Columbia, this may entail drawing
potential
potential sales
sales from
from the
the other
other corridors
corridors or
or
from
from the
the downtown
downtown area.
area.
The
The organization
organization of
of this
this study
study is
is an
an analysis
analysis of
of
each
each demand
demand segment,
segment, calculation
calculation of
of the
the
sales
gap
and
capture
rate,
a
critical
sales gap and capture rate, a critical
analysis
analysis of
of the
the existing
existing retail
retail environment,
environment,
and
suggestions
on
how
the
retail
and suggestions on how the retail
environment
environment can
can be
be improved.
improved.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Two Notch Road Retail Analysis
Capture
Capture Rate
Rate
Capture
Capture rates
rates identify
identify what
what portion
portion of
of demand
demand potential
potential (total
(total annual
annual
spending
spending potential
potential of
of all
all market
market segments
segments in
in the
the select
select retail
retail
categories.)
categories.) are
are captured
captured in
in aa given
given area
area (i.e.
(i.e. aa capture
capture rate
rate of
of 10%
10%
suggests
suggests that
that $10
$10 of
of every
every $100
$100 in
in spending
spending potential
potential is
is spent
spent in
in aa
given
area).
Given
that
people
typically
shop
at
a
variety
of
given area). Given that people typically shop at a variety of
locations,
locations, aa 100%
100% capture
capture rate
rate is
is not
not realistic.
realistic.
Leakage/Surplus
Leakage/Surplus Factor
Factor
The
The Leakage/Surplus
Leakage/Surplus factor
factor presents
presents aa snapshot
snapshot of
of retail
retail opportunity.
opportunity.
This
metric
is
a
measure
of
the
relationship
between
supply
This metric is a measure of the relationship between supply and
and
demand
demand that
that ranges
ranges from
from +100
+100 (total
(total leakage)
leakage) to
to -100
-100 (total
(total
surplus).
surplus). AA positive
positive value
value represents
represents ‘leakage’
‘leakage’ or
or retail
retail opportunity
opportunity
inside
the
trade
area.
A
negative
value
represents
a
surplus
inside the trade area. A negative value represents a surplus of
of retail
retail
sales,
sales, aa market
market where
where customers
customers are
are drawn
drawn in
in from
from outside
outside the
the
trade
trade area.
area. This
This analysis
analysis is
is included
included to
to present
present all
all opportunities
opportunities in
in aa
standardized
standardized fashion.
fashion.
Retail
Retail Categories
Categories
This
This study
study focuses
focuses on
on retail
retail categories
categories of
of Apparel
Apparel and
and Apparel
Apparel Services,
Services,
Household
Household Furnishings
Furnishings and
and Electronics,
Electronics, Personal
Personal Care
Care and
and Services,
Services,
and
and Eating
Eating and
and Drinking
Drinking Places.
Places. These
These categories
categories were
were selected
selected as
as
they
are
typically
local
serving
and
make
up
the
bulk
of
retail
they are typically local serving and make up the bulk of retail
demand.
demand. The
The Two
Two Notch
Notch corridor
corridor has
has many
many businesses,
businesses, such
such as
as
auto-oriented
businesses,
which
would
skew
the
analysis
to
show
auto-oriented businesses, which would skew the analysis to show aa
retail
retail environment
environment with
with aa very
very high
high retail
retail surplus
surplus and
and little
little
opportunity
opportunity for
for new
new retail
retail development.
development.
Page 3
Methodology
Summary
Summary
The
The primary
primary trade
trade area
area contains
contains the
the main
main consumer
consumer markets
markets
for
the
corridor
and
is
derived
from
a
half
mile
buffer
for the corridor and is derived from a half mile buffer around
around
the
the corridor.
corridor.
¾
¾ Resident
Resident Market
Market data
data is
is for
for households
households within
within the
the primary
primary
trade
trade area
area (the
(the dashed
dashed line).
line). These
These households
households are
are the
the main
main
customer
base
for
the
nearby
retail.
customer base for the nearby retail.
¾
¾ Employee
Employee Market
Market data
data is
is from
from all
all businesses
businesses and
and
organizations
along
the
corridor
(the
blue
points).
organizations along the corridor (the blue points). This
This
includes
includes non-profit
non-profit and
and government
government employment.
employment.
¾
¾ Inflow,
Inflow, calculated
calculated as
as aa percentage
percentage of
of sales,
sales, is
is spending
spending from
from
outside
outside the
the trade
trade area.
area.
¾
¾ Sales
Sales data
data is
is the
the estimated
estimated sales
sales or
or assets
assets of
of retail
retail business
business
along
along the
the corridor
corridor (the
(the green
green points)
points) in
in the
the select
select categories.
categories.
North
North Vs.
Vs. South
South
Two
Two Notch
Notch North
North differs
differs from
from Two
Two Notch
Notch South
South in
in that:
that:
¾
¾ Two
Two Notch
Notch South
South retail
retail is
is local
local serving
serving –– itit depends
depends on
on
customers
from
within
the
trade
area
as
its
primary
customers from within the trade area as its primary
customer
customer base.
base.
¾
¾ Two
Two Notch
Notch North
North retail
retail is
is regional,
regional, itit is
is comprised
comprised of
of
national
national tenants
tenants in
in large
large shopping
shopping centers
centers and
and malls.
malls. These
These
retailers
are
able
to
use
their
brand
to
draw
people
from
retailers are able to use their brand to draw people from
outside
outside the
the trade
trade area
area –– the
the city
city and
and even
even outside
outside the
the
county.
county. The
The majority
majority of
of sales
sales will
will be
be come
come from
from inflow.
inflow.
Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; Economics Research Associates, 2008.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Two Notch Road Retail Analysis
Page 4
Table of Contents
I.
Two Notch Corridor Overview
II.
Two Notch South
III.
Two Notch North
IV.
Summary
V.
Appendix
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Two Notch Road Retail Analysis
Page 5
Two Notch South: Residential Market
Demographic Summary
Summary
Summary
The
The Two
Two Notch
Notch South
South residential
residential market
market is
is comprised
comprised of
of
persons
persons living
living within
within aa half
half mile
mile of
of the
the corridor.
corridor. The
The
corridor
corridor itself
itself is
is non-residential
non-residential with
with few
few housing
housing
units.
units.
The
The residential
residential market
market is
is comprised
comprised of
of 9,641
9,641 persons
persons in
in
3,210
3,210 households.
households. The
The population
population is
is expected
expected to
to grow
grow
by
by 93
93 persons
persons and
and 10
10 households
households by
by 2012.
2012. This
This shift
shift
indicates
a
slight
decrease
in
household
size
as
indicates a slight decrease in household size as
demographics
demographics in
in the
the local
local neighborhoods
neighborhoods transition
transition to
to
younger
couples
and
single
persons
without
children,
younger couples and single persons without children,
this
this shift
shift is
is reflective
reflective of
of national
national household
household formation
formation
trends.
trends.
The
The average
average income
income in
in the
the area
area is
is expected
expected to
to increase
increase by
by
$3,640;
$3,640; from
from $33,393
$33,393 to
to $37,033
$37,033 from
from 2007
2007 –– 2012.
2012.
This
represents
a
compound
annual
growth
rate
This represents a compound annual growth rate of
of
2.09%
2.09% and,
and, when
when adjusted
adjusted for
for inflation,
inflation, aa real
real growth
growth
rate
rate of
of .06%.
.06%.
The
The total
total area
area income
income is
is expected
expected to
to increase
increase by
by $31.65M
$31.65M
from
2007
to
2012.
This
corresponds
to
an
increase
from 2007 to 2012. This corresponds to an increase in
in
tax
tax base,
base, dollars
dollars available
available to
to be
be invested
invested in
in homes,
homes, and
and
dollars
dollars available
available to
to be
be spent
spent on
on local
local retail.
retail.
Annual
Annual residential
residential spending
spending in
in the
the primary
primary retail
retail
categories
and
at
eating
and
drinking
places
categories and at eating and drinking places is
is
estimated
at
$9.94M
and
$5.58M
respectively.
estimated at $9.94M and $5.58M respectively.
Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; Economics Research Associates, 2008.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Two Notch Road Retail Analysis
Page 6
2007 Population
2012 Population
CAGR 07-12
9,641
9,548
-0.19%
2007 Households
2012 Households
CAGR 07-12
3,210
3,220
0.06%
2007 Avg Household Income
2012 Avg Household Income
CAGR 07-12
Real Growth Rate 1/
$33,393
$37,033
2.09%
-0.06%
2007 Median Household Income
2012 Median Household Income
CAGR 07-12
$18,129
$20,055
2.04%
Total Area Income 2007
Total Area Income 2012
CAGR 07-12
Annual Retail Expenditures,
Select Categories
Retail
Apparel & Apparel Services
HH Furnishings & Electronics
Personal Care & Services
Eating & Drinking Places
Subtotal
$321,941,913
$353,591,084
1.89%
Annual Market
Area Retail
Expenditures
3,106 $
9,942,242
1,200 $
3,840,016
1,276 $
4,085,148
630 $
2,017,078
1,742 $
5,576,097
4,848 $
15,561,970
Avg HH Retail
Expenditures
$
$
$
$
$
$
Total
Total Demand
Demand Potential:
Potential: $15.56M
$15.56M
Two Notch South: Residential Market Demographics
Summary
Summary
Racial
Racial Distribution
Distribution
In
In order
order to
to plan
plan proper
proper retail
retail programming,
programming, aa cursory
cursory
knowledge
knowledge of
of the
the market
market demographics
demographics are
are important.
important.
White - 7.7%
Different
Different demographic
demographic groups
groups and
and sub-groups
sub-groups have
have
different
different retail
retail spending
spending and
and dining
dining preferences.
preferences. For
For
example,
the
retail
spending
needs
and
habits
of
persons
example, the retail spending needs and habits of persons
under
under 18
18 will
will be
be different
different than
than those
those for
for persons
persons over
over 65.
65.
Black - 88.6%
American Indian,
Eskimo, Aleut - 0.1%
Asian or Pacific Islander
- 0.2%
The
The trade
trade are
are population
population is
is 9,641
9,641 persons
persons in
in 3,210
3,210
households.
households.
Hispanic Origin - 1.8%
Other - 1.6%
Income
Income Distribution
Distribution
Age
Age Distribution
Distribution
EmptyNester
18%
16%
14%
50%
Retirees
45%
Female
Female -- 54%
54%
Median
Median Age
Age –– 26.2
26.2
40%
12%
30%
10%
Median
Median –– $33,393
$33,393
Mean
Mean –– $18,129
$18,129
25%
8%
20%
6%
15%
4%
10%
2%
5%
0%
%
Total
Total HHs
HHs –– 3,210
3,210
35%
0-4
5-9
10 14
7%
6%
6%
0%
15 19
20 24
25 34
35 44
45 54
55 65
65 75
75+
13%
17%
10%
9%
12%
8%
5%
7%
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Two Notch Road Retail Analysis
Page 7
%
< $15,000
$15,000 $24,999
$25,000 $34,999
$35,000 $49,999
44%
16%
11%
12%
$50,000 $75,000 +
$74,999
9%
8%
Two Notch South: Employee Market
Total Businesses
Total Employment
408
5,351
BUSINESSES
Number
Percent
Agriculture & Mining
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation & Warehousing
Information
Finance & Insurance
Central Bank/Credit Intermediation & Related Activities
Insurance Carriers & Related Activities; Funds, Trusts & Other
financial Vehicles
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing
Professional, Scientific & Tech Services
Legal Services
Management of companies & Enterprises
Administrative & Support & Waste Management &
Remediation Services
Educational Services
Health care & Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation and Food Services
Accommodation
Food Services and Drinking Places
Other Services (except Public Administration)
Automotive Repair & Maintenance
Public Administration
Unclassified Establishments
Two Notch South
Retail
Eating & Drinking Places
Lunch
Dinner/Drinks
Total
EMPLOYMENT
Number
Percent
1
1
0
22
3
11
61
10
7
14
7
7
0.2%
0.2%
0.0%
5.4%
0.7%
2.7%
15.0%
2.5%
1.7%
3.4%
1.7%
1.7%
2
0
0
204
12
142
498
25
64
33
14
19
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
3.8%
0.2%
2.7%
9.3%
0.5%
1.2%
0.6%
0.3%
0.4%
20
17
4
1
7
4.9%
4.2%
1.0%
0.2%
1.7%
110
70
11
1
16
2.1%
1.3%
0.2%
0.0%
0.3%
13
69
5
12
1
11
104
18
28
2
3.2%
16.9%
1.2%
2.9%
0.2%
2.7%
25.5%
4.4%
6.9%
0.5%
945
2,161
15
140
1
139
395
85
518
0
17.7%
40.4%
0.3%
2.6%
0.0%
2.6%
7.4%
1.6%
9.7%
0.0%
Summary
Summary
The
The Two
Two Notch
Notch South
South employee
employee market
market is
is comprised
comprised
of
of employees
employees from
from businesses
businesses within
within aa half
half mile
mile of
of
the
corridor.
This
market
segment
will
primarily
be
the corridor. This market segment will primarily be
for
for daytime
daytime spending
spending for
for basic
basic retail
retail and
and at
at eating
eating
and
and drinking
drinking places.
places.
The
The largest
largest concentrations
concentrations of
of employment
employment in
in the
the Two
Two
Notch
Notch South
South employee
employee market
market are
are in
in Health
Health Care
Care
and
Social
Assistance
and
Educational
Services.
and Social Assistance and Educational Services.
Employee
Employee retail
retail spending
spending is
is estimated
estimated to
to be
be generated
generated
primarily
from
workers
in
the
fields
of
Retail
primarily from workers in the fields of Retail Trade,
Trade,
Finance
Finance &
& Insurance,
Insurance, Professional,
Professional, Scientific
Scientific &
& Tech
Tech
Services,
Educational
Services,
Health
Care
&
Social
Services, Educational Services, Health Care & Social
Services,
Services, and
and Public
Public Administration.
Administration. These
These
categories
represent
81%
of
the
total
categories represent 81% of the total area
area
employment.
employment.
Employee
Employee retail
retail demand
demand is
is estimated
estimated to
to grow
grow from
from
$9.76M
in
2007
to
$10.45M
in
2012
based
on
$9.76M in 2007 to $10.45M in 2012 based on
industry
industry and
and employment
employment growth
growth projections.
projections.
2007 Expenditures 2012 Expenditures
$
$
$
$
$
4,429,400 $
5,335,330 $
4,900,929 $
434,401 $
9,764,730 $
4,742,096
5,711,980
5,246,913
465,067
10,454,076
Total
Total Demand
Demand Potential:
Potential: $10.45M
$10.45M
Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; ICSC; InfoUSA; Economics Research Associates, 2008.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Two Notch Road Retail Analysis
Page 8
Two Notch South: Student and Inflow Market
Secondary
Secondary Market:
Market: Inflow
Inflow
The
The Two
Two Notch
Notch South
South inflow
inflow market
market is
is comprised
comprised of
of college
college and
and university
university students,
students, visitors
visitors to
to
families
families in
in the
the area,
area, and
and general
general inflow
inflow generated
generated by
by traffic.
traffic. Unlike
Unlike other
other markets
markets in
in which
which
spending
spending potential
potential is
is estimated,
estimated, the
the inflow
inflow market
market is
is estimated
estimated to
to generally
generally account
account for
for 5%
5% of
of sales
sales
in
in the
the selected
selected retail
retail categories.
categories. Since
Since the
the inflow
inflow market
market has
has no
no geographical
geographical constrains
constrains itit therefore
therefore
theoretically
theoretically has
has unlimited
unlimited demand
demand potential.
potential. As
As retail
retail sales
sales increase
increase in
in the
the primary
primary markets
markets itit will
will
increase
proportionally
as
a
percentage
of
sales
in
the
secondary
markets.
increase proportionally as a percentage of sales in the secondary markets.
General
General Inflow
Inflow Market
Market (5%
(5% of
of total
total sales)
sales)
Inflow
Inflow Demand
Demand is
is Generate
Generate by:
by:
¾
¾ College
College and
and University
University Students.
Students.
¾
¾ Visitors
Visitors staying
staying in
in the
the area.
area.
¾
¾ Persons
Persons from
from outside
outside the
the primary
primary trade
trade area
area
visiting
visiting to
to shop.
shop.
Inflow
Inflow spending
spending is
is estimated
estimated to
to account
account for
for 5%
5% of
of
retail
retail sales
sales and
and 5%
5% of
of sales
sales at
at eating
eating and
and drinking
drinking
places.
places. This
This amounts
amounts to
to $62,100
$62,100 in
in demand
demand for
for
retail
retail and
and $221,450
$221,450 in
in demand
demand at
at eating
eating and
and
drinking
drinking places
places
Total
Total Estimated
Estimated Sales:
Sales: $283,550
$283,550
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Two Notch Road Retail Analysis
Page 9
Two Notch South: Estimated Current Retail Sales Volume
Retail
Retail Sales
Sales
Total Corridor Retail Businesses
Total Sales (Including Food Services and Drinking Places)
28
$38,827,000
BUSINESSES
Retail Trade
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers
Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores
Electronics & Appliance Stores
Bldg Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers
Food & Beverage Stores
Health & Personal Care Stores
Gasoline Stations
Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores
Sport Goods, Hobby, Book, & Music Stores
General Merchandise Stores
Miscellaneous Store Retailers
Nonstore Retailers
Food Services and Drinking Places
Number
Percent
SALES VOLUME (ESTIMATE IN
000s)
2006 Sales Total
21
8
0
0
3
5
1
1
0
1
0
2
0
7
20.4%
7.8%
0.0%
0.0%
2.9%
4.9%
1.0%
1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
0.0%
1.9%
0.0%
6.8%
$34,398
$16,986
$0
$0
$7,773
$3,131
$402
$2,320
$0
$1,575
$0
$2,211
$0
$4,429
$
$
$
$
$
$
$38,827,000
1,242,000
840,000
402,000
4,429,000
5,671,000
For
For this
this study
study the
the analysis
analysis is
is focused
focused on
on the
the
retail
retail categories
categories of
of Apparel
Apparel and
and Apparel
Apparel
Services,
Services, Household
Household Furnishings
Furnishings and
and
Electronics,
Personal
Care
and
Services,
Electronics, Personal Care and Services,
and
and in
in Eating
Eating and
and Drinking
Drinking Places.
Places.
The
The auto
auto dealers
dealers and
and auto
auto service
service stores
stores
account
account for
for 49%
49% of
of retail
retail sales.
sales. This
This
includes
vehicle
sales
which
most
includes vehicle sales which most likely
likely are
are
largely
largely to
to persons
persons outside
outside the
the trade
trade area.
area.
Sales
Sales Volume
Volume in
in Selected
Selected
Categories:
Categories: $5.67M
$5.67M
Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; InfoUSA; Economics Research Associates, 2008.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Two Notch Road Retail Analysis
The
The total
total sales
sales volume
volume of
of $38.8M
$38.8M represents
represents
the
total
net
revenue
and
assets
the total net revenue and assets of
of all
all
retail
retail business
business directly
directly along
along the
the corridor.
corridor.
The
The estimated
estimated sales
sales volume
volume for
for the
the selected
selected
retail
retail categories
categories totals
totals $5.67M.
$5.67M.
Select
Select Categories
Categories
Total Retail Trade
Retail in Select Categories
Apparel & Apparel Services
HH Furnishings & Electronics
Personal Care & Services
Eating and Drinking Places
Subtotal
Summary
Summary
Page 10
Two Notch South Retail Environment: Retail Leakage
Two
Two Notch
Notch South
South Trade
Trade Area
Area Demand
Demand Potential
Potential
Demand
Demand potential
potential is
is the
the sum
sum of
of residential
residential demand,
demand, employee
employee demand,
demand, and
and sales
sales to
to the
the inflow
inflow market.
market.
Retail
Retail in
in the
the select
select categories
categories along
along this
this part
part of
of the
the corridor
corridor are
are local
local serving
serving and
and will
will rely
rely on
on
residents
residents and
and employees
employees of
of the
the primary
primary trade
trade area
area to
to drive
drive sales.
sales. The
The competitive
competitive context
context of
of the
the area
area
should
should be
be considered,
considered, much
much sales
sales potential
potential will
will likely
likely go
go up
up further
further to
to Two
Two Notch
Notch north
north where
where the
the
retail
retail offerings
offerings are
are greater.
greater. The
The demand
demand sources
sources are
are distributed
distributed as
as follows:
follows:
Residents
Residents (70.3%)
(70.3%)
Employees
Employees (29.3%)
(29.3%)
Inflow
Inflow (.4%)
(.4%)
Residential
Residential demand
demand is
is the
the
largest
largest local
local demand
demand
generator.
generator. Residents
Residents
generate
an
generate an estimated
estimated
$16.7M
$16.7M in
in retail
retail demand
demand
and
$9.17M
in
demand
and $9.17M in demand for
for
eating
eating and
and drinking
drinking places.
places.
Local
Local employee
employee demand
demand is
is
the
the second
second largest
largest local
local
demand
demand generator.
generator.
Employees
Employees generate
generate an
an
estimated
estimated $8.32M
$8.32M in
in retail
retail
demand
and
$10M
in
demand and $10M in
demand
demand for
for eating
eating and
and
drinking
drinking places.
places.
Inflow
Inflow demand
demand accounts
accounts for
for 80%
80% of
of
retail
sales.
Inflow
sales
are
retail sales. Inflow sales are
estimated
estimated at
at $150M
$150M for
for retail
retail and
and
$1.32M
at
eating
and
drinking
$1.32M at eating and drinking
places.
places. Inflow
Inflow is
is the
the largest
largest
spending
spending category
category because
because the
the
store
types
found
along
the
store types found along the Two
Two
Notch
Notch South
South corridor
corridor typically
typically rely
rely
on
a
sales
trade
area
much
larger
on a sales trade area much larger
than
than local
local serving
serving retail.
retail.
Total
Total Demand
Demand Potential:
Potential: $24.92M
$24.92M
Total
Total Sales
Sales Volume:
Volume: $5.67M
$5.67M
Local
Local Market
Market Leakage:
Leakage: ($19.25M)
($19.25M)
Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; InfoUSA; Economics Research Associates, 2008.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Two Notch Road Retail Analysis
Page 11
Two Notch South Retail Environment: Competitive Context
Summary
Summary
Two
Two Notch
Notch North
North and
and South
South have
have different
different retail
retail types,
types, however
however their
their close
close proximity
proximity to
to each
each other
other means
means that
that their
their
markets
will
overlap.
Customers
likely
do
not
limit
their
shopping
to
either
and
will
choose
whichever
part
of
the
markets will overlap. Customers likely do not limit their shopping to either and will choose whichever part of the
corridor
corridor that
that has
has what
what they
they need;
need; given
given the
the more
more diverse
diverse and
and higher
higher quality
quality offerings
offerings of
of Two
Two Notch
Notch North,
North, itit likely
likely
captures
captures much
much of
of the
the leaked
leaked demand
demand from
from Two
Two Notch
Notch South.
South.
Much
Much of
of the
the Leakage
Leakage from
from Two
Two Notch
Notch South
South will
will feed
feed into
into the
the Inflow
Inflow for
for Two
Two Notch
Notch North.
North. Two
Two Notch
Notch North
North is
is able
able
to
to offer
offer aa solid
solid variety
variety of
of large
large national
national retailers
retailers who
who sell
sell aa great
great variety
variety of
of goods.
goods.
Two
Two Notch
Notch North
North and
and South
South Market
Market Overlap
Overlap
Two Notch South
Total Leakage:
Two Notch North
Total Inflow:
$19.25M
$152.2M
Not all demand
can be
captured and
some will leak
elsewhere.
Summary
Summary
Two
Two Notch
Notch is
is aa retail
retail corridor
corridor with
with shopping
shopping
centers
centers ranging
ranging from
from regional
regional to
to neighborhood
neighborhood
serving.
Given
the
physical
orientation
serving. Given the physical orientation of
of the
the
corridor,
corridor, these
these types
types of
of shopping
shopping centers
centers work
work
best.
The
corridor
is
not
conducive
to
best. The corridor is not conducive to
pedestrian
pedestrian travel
travel and
and these
these style
style shopping
shopping
centers
centers allow
allow for
for parking.
parking.
Two
Two Notch
Notch South
South has
has aa number
number of
of car
car dealers,
dealers, of
of
varying
varying quality,
quality, which
which take
take up
up substantial
substantial
physical
physical space
space on
on the
the corridor
corridor and
and also
also make
make
up
up aa great
great deal
deal of
of sales.
sales. The
The corridor
corridor is
is very
very
automotive
automotive oriented
oriented which
which often
often breaks
breaks up
up the
the
continuity
of
retail
offerings
in
the
selected
continuity of retail offerings in the selected
categories.
categories. Total
Total retail
retail sales
sales numbers
numbers are
are
skewed
by
the
automotive
dealers
which
skewed by the automotive dealers which rely
rely
on
on aa regional
regional customer
customer base
base to
to drive
drive sales.
sales.
Some demand
will be captured
at Two Notch
North
Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; Economics Research Associates, 2008.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Two Notch Road Retail Analysis
Page 12
Corridor Retail Assessment: Strengths, Weaknesses, Needs/Concerns
Overall
Overall Retail
Retail Demand
Demand
Total
Total retail
retail demand
demand in
in the
the select
select categories,
categories,
including
eating
and
drinking,
including eating and drinking, is
is $24.92M.
$24.92M.
$14.14M
of
which
will
be
for
retail
$14.14M of which will be for retail and
and
$10.78M
$10.78M which
which will
will be
be for
for eating
eating and
and
drinking
drinking places.
places.
Assessment
Assessment
ERA’s
ERA’s overall
overall assessment
assessment of
of the
the Two
Two Notch
Notch
South
corridor
is
that
it
suitably
offers
South corridor is that it suitably offers aa space
space
in
the
city
for
the
large
car
dealers
and
for
in the city for the large car dealers and for
local
local serving
serving shopping
shopping centers.
centers. New
New
development
and
infill
development
development and infill development should
should
be
be strip
strip style
style convenience
convenience and
and neighborhood
neighborhood
style
style shopping
shopping centers
centers which
which fit
fit into
into the
the
character
character of
of the
the corridor.
corridor.
The
The estimated
estimated local
local market
market leakage
leakage of
of $19.25M
$19.25M
occurs
occurs because
because of
of the
the lack
lack of
of offerings
offerings in
in the
the
selected
selected retail
retail types.
types. Much
Much of
of this
this leaked
leaked
demand
is
likely
captured
by
Two
Notch
demand is likely captured by Two Notch
North
North which
which many
many national
national retailers.
retailers.
The
The car
car dealerships
dealerships along
along the
the corridor
corridor pose
pose aa
concern
concern in
in that
that they
they break
break up
up the
the retail
retail
continuity
and
when
vacant
pose
an
continuity and when vacant pose an issue
issue in
in
finding
finding suitable
suitable tenants
tenants for
for aa large
large space
space
which
which is
is not
not generally
generally oriented
oriented for
for retail.
retail.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Two Notch Road Retail Analysis
Market
Market Strengths
Strengths
¾
¾ Large
Large local
local retailers
retailers with
with strong
strong pull
pull outside
outside the
the trade
trade area
area work
work
together
together to
to attract
attract customers
customers to
to the
the mall
mall and
and the
the corridor.
corridor.
¾
¾ Large
Large unoccupied
unoccupied or
or underutilized
underutilized lots
lots are
are opportunities
opportunities to
to
develop
develop retail
retail of
of scale
scale not
not possible
possible elsewhere
elsewhere in
in the
the city.
city.
¾
¾ Roadway
Roadway improvements
improvements have
have increased
increased walkability
walkability and
and aesthetical
aesthetical
quality
quality of
of the
the corridor.
corridor.
Market
Market Weaknesses
Weaknesses
¾
¾ Large
Large empty
empty lots,
lots, many
many formerly
formerly used
used for
for auto-service
auto-service or
or sales,
sales,
pose
an
issue
in
that
they
break
up
the
continuity
of
the
retail
pose an issue in that they break up the continuity of the retail
corridor
corridor both
both physically
physically and
and visually.
visually.
¾
¾ Lack
Lack of
of architectural
architectural ingenuity
ingenuity at
at many
many retail
retail offerings,
offerings, future
future
development
development should
should consider
consider that
that inexpensive
inexpensive development
development does
does
not
necessarily
have
to
equate
to
a
lack
in
design
standards.
not necessarily have to equate to a lack in design standards.
¾
¾ Needs
Needs better
better signage
signage overall.
overall.
Future
Future Needs/Concerns
Needs/Concerns
¾
¾ Consider
Consider uses
uses alternate
alternate to
to retail
retail for
for empty
empty lots.
lots. Large
Large lots
lots could
could
potentially
potentially house
house industrial
industrial flex
flex or
or office
office space.
space.
¾
¾ Infrastructure
Infrastructure improvements
improvements were
were not
not made
made consistently
consistently along
along the
the
corridor.
corridor.
¾
¾ Attraction
Attraction and
and retention
retention of
of proper
proper retail
retail tenant
tenant mix
mix in
in order
order to
to
create
create retail
retail environment
environment that
that can
can best
best enhance
enhance and
and serve
serve local
local
neighborhoods.
neighborhoods.
Page 13
Strategic Needs Assessment and Recommendations
Strategic
Strategic Needs
Needs Assessment
Assessment
Two
Two Notch
Notch South
South can
can best
best improve
improve its
its retail
retail
environment
environment through
through making
making some
some basic
basic
improvements.
improvements. The
The corridor
corridor needs
needs to
to
address
the
many
empty
lots,
address the many empty lots,
infrastructure
infrastructure issues,
issues, and
and make
make some
some
basic
upgrades
to
existing
retail.
basic upgrades to existing retail.
Any
Any new
new retail
retail would
would need
need to
to fit
fit into
into the
the
retail
mix
and
quality
currently
along
retail mix and quality currently along the
the
corridor.
corridor. This
This would
would best
best be
be achieved
achieved
through
through certain
certain types
types of
of shopping
shopping center
center
development.
development.
While
While there
there are
are many
many empty
empty lots
lots along
along the
the
corridor,
stiff
competition
from
a
broad
corridor, stiff competition from a broad
offering
offering makes
makes new
new retail
retail development
development
difficult.
Alternate,
or
mixed,
difficult. Alternate, or mixed, uses
uses should
should
be
be considered.
considered.
These
These strategic
strategic recommendations
recommendations would
would
work
work to
to supplement
supplement already
already existing
existing
efforts
efforts and
and programs
programs offered
offered by
by the
the City
City
of
of Columbia
Columbia and
and the
the Center
Center City
City
Commission.
Commission.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Two Notch Road Retail Analysis
Recommendation
Recommendation 1:
1: Corridor
Corridor Improvements
Improvements
ERA’s
ERA’s interviews
interviews with
with local
local businesspersons
businesspersons found
found that
that uneven
uneven
infrastructure
improvements
were
a
concern
along
the
infrastructure improvements were a concern along the corridor.
corridor.
Concerns
Concerns were
were mostly
mostly about
about roadway,
roadway, sidewalk,
sidewalk, and
and streetlight
streetlight
improvements.
improvements. Improvements
Improvements to
to lighting
lighting would
would give
give the
the area
area aa safer
safer
feel,
streetscaping
would
improve
the
overall
aesthetic
quality,
feel, streetscaping would improve the overall aesthetic quality,
pedestrian
pedestrian circulation
circulation improvements
improvements would
would help
help pedestrians
pedestrians along
along the
the
corridor,
and
signage
improvements
would
give
businesses
along
the
corridor, and signage improvements would give businesses along the
corridor
corridor greater
greater visibility
visibility –– an
an important
important consideration
consideration to
to driving
driving sales.
sales.
Recommendation
Recommendation 2:
2: Consider
Consider Alternate
Alternate Uses
Uses
Alternate
Alternate uses
uses should
should be
be considered
considered for
for the
the vacant
vacant lots
lots which
which negatively
negatively
impact
impact the
the corridor.
corridor. Two
Two Notch
Notch North
North is
is currently
currently primarily
primarily retail,
retail, but
but
different
uses
could
be
considered.
Possible
alternate
uses
are
office,
different uses could be considered. Possible alternate uses are office,
light
light warehousing/flex
warehousing/flex industrial,
industrial, or
or mixed
mixed residential/retail.
residential/retail.
Recommendation
Recommendation 3:
3: Convenience
Convenience and
and Neighborhood
Neighborhood Style
Style Shopping
Shopping
Centers
Centers
Convenience
Convenience and
and neighborhood
neighborhood style
style shopping
shopping centers
centers would
would offer
offer basic
basic
retail
retail needs
needs to
to people
people in
in the
the surrounding
surrounding communities
communities who
who do
do not
not
own
own vehicles.
vehicles. These
These would
would be
be the
the most
most appropriate
appropriate shopping
shopping center
center
types
types but
but would
would face
face difficulty
difficulty in
in finding
finding aa market
market niche
niche where
where their
their
offerings
could
compete
with
what
is
already
available.
offerings could compete with what is already available.
Page 14
Recommendation 1: Corridor Improvements
Street
Street Lights
Lights
Streetscaping
Streetscaping
Streetlights
Streetlights are
are important
important to
to minimizing
minimizing perceived
perceived danger.
danger.
Large
parts
of
the
corridor
are
unlighted,
and
interviews
Large parts of the corridor are unlighted, and interviews
with
with business
business owners
owners found
found that
that this
this fueled
fueled perceptions
perceptions
of
of safety
safety issues
issues that
that scare
scare away
away potential
potential customers.
customers.
Streetscaping
Streetscaping is
is basic
basic improvements
improvements to
to sidewalks
sidewalks including
including
additions
additions of
of streetlights,
streetlights, trees,
trees, etc.
etc. Streetscaping
Streetscaping is
is
important
in
creating
a
pedestrian
friendly
retail
important in creating a pedestrian friendly retail
environment.
environment.
Pedestrian
Pedestrian Circulation
Circulation
Signage
Signage
Crosswalks
Crosswalks with
with press-button
press-button lights
lights would
would help
help pedestrian
pedestrian
shoppers
to
travel
between
either
side
of
the
very
shoppers to travel between either side of the very auto
auto
oriented
oriented corridor.
corridor.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Two Notch Road Retail Analysis
Signage
Signage is
is an
an important
important advertising
advertising component
component for
for every
every
retail
business.
Increased
visibility
can
equate
to
retail business. Increased visibility can equate to
increased
increased sales.
sales.
Page 15
Recommendation 2: Consider Alternate Uses
Recommendation
Recommendation 22
The
The corridor
corridor currently
currently has
has aa variety
variety of
of retail
retail offerings
offerings
and
new
small
businesses
may
not
be
competitive
and new small businesses may not be competitive
with
with what
what is
is already
already available.
available. Because
Because of
of the
the
competition
that
new
retail
faces,
other
land
competition that new retail faces, other land uses
uses
can
can pose
pose aa solution
solution to
to occupy
occupy the
the vacant
vacant lots.
lots. The
The
large
large size
size of
of parcels
parcels along
along the
the corridor
corridor give
give the
the
flexibility
for
new
development
types.
flexibility for new development types.
New
New land
land uses
uses may
may require
require zoning
zoning changes
changes and
and should
should
fit
into
the
character
and
visual
continuity
of
the
fit into the character and visual continuity of the
corridor.
corridor. New
New development
development being
being financially
financially feasible
feasible
does
not
necessarily
entail
abandoning
design
does not necessarily entail abandoning design
standards,
standards, there
there should
should be
be efforts
efforts to
to ensure
ensure new
new
developments
developments will
will be
be aa visual
visual plus.
plus.
Mixed
Mixed use
use development
development aims
aims to
to create
create aa lively
lively
environment,
environment, where
where people
people live,
live, work,
work, and
and shop
shop in
in
the
same
area.
The
benefit
of
mixed
use
the same area. The benefit of mixed use
development
development to
to this
this area
area specifically
specifically is
is in
in attracting
attracting
aa different
type
of
user
where
retail
cannot
different type of user where retail cannot perform.
perform.
Risks
Risks of
of mixed
mixed use
use development
development are
are that
that when
when uses
uses are
are
combined
they
must
both
remain
functional
for
the
combined they must both remain functional for the
whole
whole to
to work.
work. Apartments
Apartments on
on top
top of
of retail
retail work
work
best
best when
when the
the retail
retail space
space is
is occupied
occupied just
just as
as office
office
on
top
of
retail
does.
Mixed
use
developments
on top of retail does. Mixed use developments have
have
concerns
concerns different
different from
from single
single use
use developments
developments
because
because of
of its
its dependency
dependency of
of both
both uses
uses functioning.
functioning.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Two Notch Road Retail Analysis
Office
Office
Office
Office space
space could
could be
be aa new
new land
land use
use along
along the
the corridor.
corridor. New
New
office
space
could
either
be
formatted
as
smaller
offices
office space could either be formatted as smaller offices to
to
support
support small
small local
local businesses,
businesses, or
or larger
larger offices
offices to
to support
support
large
large office
office users,
users, such
such as
as the
the administrative
administrative components
components of
of
surrounding
surrounding medical
medical complex’s.
complex’s. AA concern
concern for
for office
office
development
development is
is ensuring
ensuring proper
proper market
market support
support and
and
tenanting.
tenanting.
Office/Warehousing
Office/Warehousing
Office/Warehousing
Office/Warehousing could
could be
be integrated
integrated into
into the
the corridor
corridor in
in
order
order to
to provide
provide an
an adaptive
adaptive reuse
reuse of
of the
the vacant
vacant auto
auto lots.
lots.
Office/warehousing
Office/warehousing would
would be
be aa distribution
distribution type
type center
center with
with
some
office
space.
The
office
space
is
typically
situated
some office space. The office space is typically situated
fronting
fronting the
the street
street while
while warehousing
warehousing and
and loading
loading docks
docks are
are
in
the
back.
in the back.
Mixed
Mixed Use
Use
Residential
Residential space
space could
could be
be mixed
mixed in
in with
with other
other uses
uses such
such as
as
office
office or
or retail.
retail. Mixed
Mixed use
use residential/retail
residential/retail usually
usually consists
consists of
of
storefront
retail
with
condos
or
apartment
on
top.
For
this
storefront retail with condos or apartment on top. For this
to
to work,
work, the
the retail
retail space
space needs
needs to
to maintain
maintain aa constant
constant level
level
of
quality
and
must
remain
open
and
tenanted.
of quality and must remain open and tenanted.
Mixed
Mixed use
use retail/office
retail/office would
would have
have storefront
storefront retail
retail on
on the
the
bottom
floor
and
office
space
on
the
upper
floors.
The
bottom floor and office space on the upper floors. The same
same
concerns
concerns of
of occupancy
occupancy and
and operations
operations as
as with
with
residential/retail
residential/retail apply.
apply.
Page 16
Recommendation 3: Convenience and Neighborhood Style Shopping Centers
Recommendation
Recommendation 33
Two
Two Notch
Notch South
South future
future retail
retail should
should have
have priorities
priorities in
in
ensuring
ensuring the
the current
current shopping
shopping centers
centers are
are well
well
tenanted
tenanted with
with aa variety
variety of
of offerings
offerings and
and maintained
maintained
quality.
quality. Given
Given that
that this
this is
is ensured,
ensured, any
any demand
demand for
for
space
should
be
accommodated
in
either
a
space should be accommodated in either a
convenience
convenience or
or neighborhood
neighborhood style
style shopping
shopping center.
center.
These
These shopping
shopping center
center styles
styles would
would work
work best
best given
given
that
most
tenants
have
small
space
requirements
that most tenants have small space requirements
and
and are
are frequently
frequently locally
locally owned.
owned.
Neighborhood
Neighborhood style
style shopping
shopping centers
centers often
often have
have aa
grocery
grocery store
store or
or supermarket
supermarket as
as an
an anchor.
anchor. Along
Along
Two
Notch
South
this
may
need
to
be
substituted
Two Notch South this may need to be substituted
for
for aa different
different store
store type
type given
given that
that aa local
local grocer,
grocer,
the
the Food
Food Lion
Lion at
at 3901
3901 Two
Two Notch,
Notch, already
already exists.
exists.
Examples
Examples of
of typical
typical tenants
tenants
¾
¾ Apparel
Apparel 3,500
3,500 SF
SF
¾
Accessories
2,000
¾ Accessories 2,000 –– 10,000
10,000 SF
SF
¾
¾ Personal
Personal Care
Care 2,000
2,000 –– 10,000
10,000 SF
SF
¾
Household
Furnishings
3,500
–
¾ Household Furnishings 3,500 – 10,000
10,000 SF
SF
¾
¾ Grocery
Grocery StoresStores- 30,000
30,000 to
to 65,000
65,000
¾
¾ Restaurants
Restaurants 3,000
3,000 –– 6,000+
6,000+ SF
SF
¾
Quick
Service
food
1,200
–
3,500
¾ Quick Service food 1,200 – 3,500 SF
SF
Convenience
Convenience Style
Style Shopping
Shopping Center
Center
The
The convenience
convenience shopping
shopping center
center is
is oriented
oriented toward
toward personal
personal
services
such
as
drugstore/pharmacies,
flower
shops,
services such as drugstore/pharmacies, flower shops, beauty
beauty
shops,
shops, unisex
unisex hair
hair shops,
shops, and
and cleaners.
cleaners. ItIt is
is not
not anchored
anchored by
by
aa supermarket
but
may
contain
a
convenience
market
or
supermarket but may contain a convenience market or
minimarket.
minimarket.
¾
¾ Average
Average Size
Size (GLA):
(GLA): 62,000
62,000 SF
SF
¾
¾ Grocery
Grocery StoreStore- 30,000
30,000 to
to 65,000
65,000
¾
¾ Quick
Quick Service
Service food
food 1,200
1,200 –– 3,500
3,500 SF
SF
¾
Personal
Care
2,000
–
10,000
SF
¾ Personal Care 2,000 – 10,000 SF
Neighborhood
Neighborhood Style
Style Shopping
Shopping Center
Center
The
The neighborhood
neighborhood style
style shopping
shopping center
center provides
provides merchandise
merchandise
for
for daily
daily living
living needs
needs –– convenience
convenience goods
goods like
like food,
food, drugs,
drugs,
hardware,
and
personal
services.
A
supermarket
is
the
hardware, and personal services. A supermarket is the
principal
principal tenant
tenant in
in this
this type
type of
of shopping
shopping center
center
¾
¾ Average
Average Size
Size (GLA):
(GLA): 22,480
22,480 SF
SF
¾
Personal
Care
2,000
¾ Personal Care 2,000 –– 10,000
10,000 SF
SF
¾
¾ Restaurants
Restaurants 3,000
3,000 –– 6,000+
6,000+ SF
SF
¾
¾ Quick
Quick Service
Service food
food 1,200
1,200 –– 3,500
3,500 SF
SF
¾
¾ Bank
Bank 3,000
3,000 –– 4,000
4,000 SF
SF
Source: ULI Dollars and Cents of Shopping Centers; Economics Research Associates, 2008.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Two Notch Road Retail Analysis
Page 17
Table of Contents
I.
Two Notch Corridor Overview
II.
Two Notch South
III.
Two Notch North
IV.
Summary
V.
Appendix
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Two Notch Road Retail Analysis
Page 18
Two Notch North: Residential Market
Demographic Summary
Summary
Summary
The
The Two
Two North
North North
North residential
residential market
market is
is comprised
comprised of
of persons
persons
living
living within
within aa half
half mile
mile of
of the
the corridor.
corridor.
The
The Two
Two Notch
Notch North
North corridor
corridor is
is comprised
comprised of
of 7,246
7,246 persons
persons in
in
3,122
3,122 households.
households. The
The population
population is
is expected
expected to
to grow
grow by
by 51
51
persons
persons and
and 76
76 households
households by
by 2012.
2012. This
This shift
shift indicates
indicates aa
slight
slight decrease
decrease in
in household
household size
size as
as demographics
demographics in
in the
the local
local
neighborhoods
neighborhoods transition
transition to
to younger
younger couples
couples and
and single
single
persons
persons without
without children,
children, this
this shift
shift is
is reflective
reflective of
of national
national
household
household formation
formation trends.
trends.
The
The average
average income
income in
in the
the area
area is
is expected
expected to
to increase
increase by
by
$8,535
$8,535 from
from $58,291
$58,291 to
to $66,826
$66,826 from
from 2007
2007 –– 2012.
2012. This
This
represents
a
compound
annual
growth
rate
of
2.77%
represents a compound annual growth rate of 2.77% and,
and,
when
when adjusted
adjusted for
for inflation,
inflation, aa real
real growth
growth rate
rate of
of .62%.
.62%.
The
The total
total area
area income
income is
is expected
expected to
to increase
increase by
by $65.2M
$65.2M from
from
2007
2007 to
to 2012.
2012. This
This corresponds
corresponds to
to an
an increase
increase in
in tax
tax base,
base,
dollars
dollars available
available to
to be
be invested
invested in
in homes,
homes, and
and dollars
dollars
available
to
be
spent
on
local
retail.
available to be spent on local retail.
2007
2007 residential
residential spending
spending in
in the
the primary
primary retail
retail categories
categories and
and at
at
eating
and
drinking
places
is
estimated
at
$16.7M
and
$9.1M
eating and drinking places is estimated at $16.7M and $9.1M
respectively.
respectively.
Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; Economics Research Associates, 2008.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Two Notch Road Retail Analysis
Page 19
2007 Population
2012 Population
CAGR 07-12
7,246
7,296
0.14%
2007 Households
2012 Households
CAGR 07-12
3,122
3,198
0.48%
2007 Avg Household Income
2012 Avg Household Income
CAGR 07-12
Real Growth Rate 1/
$58,291
$66,826
2.77%
0.62%
2007 Median Household Income
2012 Median Household Income
CAGR 07-12
$45,994
$52,238
2.58%
Total Area Income 2007
Total Area Income 2012
CAGR 07-12
Annual Retail Expenditures,
Select Categories
Retail
Apparel & Apparel Services
HH Furnishings & Electronics
Personal Care & Services
Eating & Drinking Places
Subtotal
$422,376,586
$487,562,496
2.91%
Annual Market
Area Retail
Expenditures
5,229 $
16,737,485
1,972 $
6,312,660
2,198 $
7,036,694
1,058 $
3,388,130
2,863 $
9,165,224
8,092 $
25,263,435
Avg HH Retail
Expenditures
$
$
$
$
$
$
Total
Total Demand
Demand Potential:
Potential: $25.23M
$25.23M
Two Notch North: 2007 Residential Market Demographics
Racial
Racial Distribution
Distribution
Summary
Summary
In
In order
order to
to plan
plan proper
proper retail
retail programming,
programming, aa cursory
cursory
knowledge
knowledge of
of the
the market
market demographics
demographics is
is important.
important.
White - 6.1%
Black - 90.1%
Different
Different demographic
demographic groups
groups and
and sub-groups
sub-groups have
have
different
different retail
retail spending
spending and
and dining
dining preferences.
preferences. For
For
example,
the
retail
spending
needs
and
habits
of
example, the retail spending needs and habits of
persons
persons under
under 18
18 will
will be
be greatly
greatly different
different than
than those
those
for
persons
over
65.
for persons over 65.
American Indian,
Eskimo, Aleut - 0.1%
Asian or Pacific Islander
- 0.5%
Hispanic Origin - 1.7%
The
The trade
trade area
area population
population is
is 7,246
7,246 persons
persons in
in 3,122
3,122
households.
households.
Other - 1.5%
Income
Income Distribution
Distribution
Age
Age Distribution
Distribution
EmptyNester
18%
16%
14%
30%
Retirees
25%
Female
Female -- 54%
54%
Median
Median Age
Age –– 43.3
43.3
Total
Total HHs
HHs –– 3,122
3,122
20%
12%
10%
15%
8%
10%
6%
4%
Median
Median –– $45,994
$45,994
Mean
Mean -- $68,040
$68,040
5%
2%
0%
0%
%
0-4
5-9
10 14
5%
6%
6%
15 19
20 24
25 34
35 44
45 54
55 65
65 75
75+
6%
5%
11%
12%
16%
13%
9%
9%
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Two Notch Road Retail Analysis
Page 20
%
< $15,000
$15,000 $24,999
$25,000 $34,999
$35,000 $49,999
14%
13%
10%
17%
$50,000 $75,000 +
$74,999
22%
24%
Two Notch North: Employee Market
Total Businesses
Total Employment
1,205
12,294
BUSINESSES
Number
Percent
EMPLOYMENT
Number
Percent
Agriculture & Mining
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation & Warehousing
Information
Finance & Insurance
Central Bank/Credit Intermediation & Related Activities
Insurance Carriers & Related Activities; Funds, Trusts & Other
financial Vehicles
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing
Professional, Scientific & Tech Services
Legal Services
Management of companies & Enterprises
Administrative & Support & Waste Management &
Remediation Services
1
1
0
66
23
34
294
15
24
79
47
29
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
5.5%
1.9%
2.8%
24.4%
1.2%
2.0%
6.6%
3.9%
2.4%
2
0
0
574
425
272
2,726
42
225
220
152
68
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
4.7%
3.5%
2.2%
22.2%
0.3%
1.8%
1.8%
1.2%
0.6%
58
70
12
1
28
4.8%
5.8%
1.0%
0.1%
2.3%
303
251
24
1
127
2.5%
2.0%
0.2%
0.0%
1.0%
Educational Services
Health care & Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation and Food Services
Accommodation
Food Services and Drinking Places
Other Services (except Public Administration)
Automotive Repair & Maintenance
Public Administration
Unclassified Establishments
24
105
17
66
4
62
254
54
41
4
2.0%
8.7%
1.4%
5.5%
0.3%
5.1%
21.1%
4.5%
3.4%
0.3%
1,310
2,478
64
880
41
839
961
258
1,431
2
10.7%
20.2%
0.5%
7.2%
0.3%
6.8%
7.8%
2.1%
11.6%
0.0%
Two Notch North
Summary
Summary
The
The Two
Two Notch
Notch North
North employee
employee market
market is
is comprised
comprised
of
of employees
employees from
from businesses
businesses within
within aa half
half mile
mile of
of
the
corridor.
the corridor.
The
The largest
largest employment
employment concentration
concentration in
in the
the primary
primary
trade
area
are
in
Retail
Trade
(employees
at
trade area are in Retail Trade (employees at the
the
local
local malls),
malls), Other
Other Services
Services (except
(except Public
Public
Administration),
Administration), and
and Health
Health Care
Care and
and Social
Social
Assistance.
Assistance.
Employee
Employee spending
spending is
is estimated
estimated to
to be
be generated
generated
primarily
from
office
workers
in
the
fields
primarily from office workers in the fields of
of Retail
Retail
Trade,
Trade, Finance
Finance &
& Insurance,
Insurance, Professional,
Professional, Scientific
Scientific
&
& Tech
Tech Services,
Services, Educational
Educational Services,
Services, Health
Health Care
Care &
&
Social
Social Services,
Services, and
and Public
Public Administration.
Administration. This
This
represents
represents 70.9%
70.9% of
of total
total employment.
employment.
Employment
in
these
categories
Employment in these categories is
is expected
expected to
to grow
grow
by
by 769
769 persons
persons in
in 2012
2012 based
based on
on MSA
MSA industry
industry
trends.
trends.
Total
Total retail
retail demand
demand is
is estimated
estimated to
to grow
grow from
from $19.6M
$19.6M
in
2007
to
$21M
in
2012
based
on
industry
and
in 2007 to $21M in 2012 based on industry and
employment
employment growth
growth projections.
projections.
2007 Expenditures 2012 Expenditures
Retail
$
Eating & Drinking Places
Lunch
Dinner/Drinks
Total
$
$
$
$
8,908,868
$
9,537,794
10,730,966 $
9,857,255 $
873,711 $
19,639,834 $
11,488,524
10,553,133
935,391
21,026,318
Total
Total Demand
Demand Potential:
Potential: $19.6M
$19.6M
Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; ICSC; InfoUSA; Economics Research Associates, 2008.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Two Notch Road Retail Analysis
Page 21
Two Notch North: Inflow Sales
Inflow
Inflow Market
Market
Two
Two Notch
Notch North
North differs
differs from
from the
the other
other corridors
corridors in
in that
that its
its malls
malls and
and shopping
shopping centers
centers can
can be
be
classified
classified as
as ‘destination
‘destination shopping’.
shopping’. The
The retail
retail along
along this
this corridor
corridor attracts
attracts persons
persons from
from beyond
beyond the
the
primary
residential
and
office
worker
markets.
The
diverse
retail
offering
are
able
to
attract
a
much
primary residential and office worker markets. The diverse retail offering are able to attract a much
larger
larger customer
customer base
base than
than the
the other
other corridors
corridors which
which are
are more
more local
local serving
serving and
and limited
limited in
in their
their
offering.
The
concentration
of
retail
varieties
is
able
to
further
capture
spending
through
creating
offering. The concentration of retail varieties is able to further capture spending through creating aa
critical
critical mass
mass of
of retail.
retail.
Inflow
Inflow Market
Market (77.5%
(77.5% of
of total
total sales)
sales)
Inflow
Inflow demand
demand is
is generate
generate by:
by:
¾
¾ Persons
Persons residing
residing in
in Columbia
Columbia and
and throughout
throughout the
the
county.
county.
¾
¾ Business
Business Visitors.
Visitors.
¾
¾ Passing
Passing through
through traffic.
traffic.
¾
¾ Visitors
Visitors to
to residents
residents within
within the
the primary
primary trade
trade area.
area.
Inflow
Inflow spending
spending is
is estimated
estimated to
to account
account for
for $150.87M
$150.87M
of
of retail
retail sales
sales and
and $1.33M
$1.33M of
of sales
sales at
at eating
eating and
and
drinking
places.
drinking places.
Total
Total Estimated
Estimated Inflow
Inflow Sales:
Sales: $180.7M
$180.7M
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Two Notch Road Retail Analysis
Page 22
Two Notch North: Retail Sales
Retail
Retail Sales
Sales
Total Corridor Retail Businesses
Total Sales (Including Food Services and Drinking Places)
Retail Trade
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers
Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores
Electronics & Appliance Stores
Bldg Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers
Food & Beverage Stores
Health & Personal Care Stores
Gasoline Stations
Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores
Sport Goods, Hobby, Book, & Music Stores
General Merchandise Stores
Miscellaneous Store Retailers
Nonstore Retailers
Food Services and Drinking Places
196
$736,702
EMPLOYMENT
Number
Percent
SALES VOLUME (ESTIMATE
IN 000s)
2006 Sales Total
1,575
457
109
185
206
49
51
6
366
60
9
77
0
418
42.7%
12.4%
3.0%
5.0%
5.6%
1.3%
1.4%
0.2%
9.9%
1.6%
0.2%
2.1%
0.0%
11.3%
$716,184
$408,885
$35,627
$59,555
$67,151
$11,247
$10,349
$2,784
$70,095
$9,581
$29,508
$11,402
$0
$20,518
Retail
Retail Sales
Sales Volume
Volume
Total Retail Trade
Retail in Select Categories
Apparel & Apparel Services
HH Furnishings & Electronics
Personal Care & Services
Eating and Drinking Places
Subtotal
The
The total
total sales
sales volume
volume of
of $736.7M
$736.7M
represents
the
total
net
represents the total net revenue
revenue and
and
assets
assets of
of all
all retail
retail business
business directly
directly along
along
the
the corridor
corridor
Total
Total retail
retail sales
sales are
are skewed
skewed by
by automotive
automotive
dealers
dealers and
and service
service places
places which
which account
account
for
57%
of
sales.
for 57% of sales.
For
For this
this study
study the
the analysis
analysis is
is focused
focused on
on the
the
retail
categories
of
Apparel
and
Apparel
retail categories of Apparel and Apparel
Services,
Services, Household
Household Furnishings
Furnishings and
and
Electronics,
Personal
Care
and
Services,
Electronics, Personal Care and Services,
and
and in
in Eating
Eating and
and Drinking
Drinking Places.
Places.
$736,702,000
$
175,926,000
$
70,395,000
$
95,182,000
$
10,349,000
$
20,518,000
$
196,444,000
Total
Total sales
sales volume
volume for
for the
the selected
selected retail
retail
categories
categories total
total $11.4M
$11.4M or
or 20.7%
20.7% of
of all
all
retail
sales.
retail sales.
Sales
Sales Volume
Volume in
in Selected
Selected
Categories:
Categories: $196.4M
$196.4M
Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; InfoUSA; Economics Research Associates, 2008.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Two Notch Road Retail Analysis
Summary
Summary
Page 23
Retail Environment: Shopping Centers
Summary
Summary
The
The local
local shopping
shopping centers
centers make
make up
up aa large
large part
part of
of areas
areas retail
retail sales
sales and
and offerings
offerings and
and attract
attract people
people to
to the
the corridor.
corridor.
There
There are
are three
three full
full malls
malls along
along the
the corridor,
corridor, Columbia
Columbia Place
Place Mall,
Mall, Capitol
Capitol Centre,
Centre, and
and Park
Park Centre.
Centre. Columbia
Columbia place
place
mall
is
the
largest
and
best
performing,
the
graphic
below
illustrates
its
share
of
area
retail
sales.
mall is the largest and best performing, the graphic below illustrates its share of area retail sales.
The
The malls
malls have
have aa strong
strong pull
pull outside
outside the
the trade
trade area.
area. They
They draw
draw customers
customers from
from across
across the
the city
city and
and the
the county.
county. The
The
malls
make
Two
Notch
North
more
of
a
‘destination’
shopping
area
than
Two
Notch
South.
malls make Two Notch North more of a ‘destination’ shopping area than Two Notch South.
Local
Local Malls
Malls
Columbia
Columbia Mall
Mall Share
Share of
of Retail
Retail Sales
Sales
Columbia
Columbia Place
Place Mall
Mall
¾
¾ Opened
Opened 1977
1977 (last
(last renovated
renovated 2002)
2002)
¾
¾ 122
122 stores
stores total,
total, 1M+
1M+ Sq
Sq ft
ft GLA.
GLA.
Share of
Retail Sales:
62.46%
Total Sales
Elsewhere:
$73.73M
¾
¾ Anchored
Anchored by
by Macy’s,
Macy’s, Dillards,
Dillards, Sears,
Sears,
Burlington
Burlington Coat
Coat Factory
Factory
Trade Area Retail Sales:
$196.4M
Capitol
Capitol Centre
Centre
¾
¾ Opened
Opened 1991.
1991.
Columbia
Mall Sales:
¾
¾ 20
20 Stores,
Stores, 226,705
226,705 sq
sq ft
ft GLA.
GLA.
Park
Park Centre
Centre
$122.67M
¾
¾ 77 Stores,
Stores, 226,705
226,705 sq
sq ft
ft GLA.
GLA.
¾
¾ Anchored
Anchored by
by Circuit
Circuit City
City and
and Office
Office
Max.
Max.
Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; Economics Research Associates, 2008.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Two Notch Road Retail Analysis
Page 24
Retail Environment: Retail Leakage
Two
Two Notch
Notch North
North Demand
Demand Potential
Potential
Demand
Demand potential
potential is
is the
the sum
sum of
of residential
residential demand,
demand, employee
employee demand,
demand, and
and sales
sales to
to the
the inflow
inflow
market.
market. Actual
Actual sales
sales are
are much
much higher
higher than
than the
the local
local demand
demand potential
potential since
since aa large
large part
part of
of the
the
sales
are
driven
by
inflow.
Any
short
term
growth
Is
total
demand
potential
will
likely
occur
sales are driven by inflow. Any short term growth Is total demand potential will likely occur
primarily
primarily through
through the
the corridor
corridor increasing
increasing its
its inflow
inflow sales
sales volume.
volume. The
The demand
demand sources
sources are
are
distributed
distributed as
as follows:
follows:
Employees
Employees (5%)
(5%)
Residents
Residents (10%)
(10%)
Inflow
Inflow (86%)
(86%)
Local
Local employee
employee demand
demand is
is the
the
second
largest
local
demand
second largest local demand
generator.
generator. Employees
Employees generate
generate
an
an estimated
estimated $8.32M
$8.32M in
in retail
retail
demand
and
$10M
in
demand
demand and $10M in demand
for
for eating
eating and
and drinking
drinking places.
places.
This
category
is
for
a
large
This category is for a large part
part
employees
employees at
at the
the local
local malls
malls and
and
shopping
shopping centers.
centers.
Residential
Residential demand
demand is
is the
the
largest
local
demand
largest local demand
generator.
generator. Residents
Residents
generate
generate an
an estimated
estimated
$16.7M
in
retail
$16.7M in retail demand
demand
and
and $9.17M
$9.17M in
in demand
demand for
for
eating
and
drinking
places.
eating and drinking places.
Inflow
Inflow demand
demand accounts
accounts for
for 80%
80% of
of
retail
retail sales.
sales. Inflow
Inflow sales
sales are
are
estimated
estimated at
at $150.87M
$150.87M for
for retail
retail
and
and $1.32M
$1.32M at
at eating
eating and
and drinking
drinking
places.
places. Inflow
Inflow is
is the
the largest
largest
spending
category
because
spending category because the
the
store
store types
types found
found along
along the
the Two
Two
Notch
North
corridor
typically
Notch North corridor typically rely
rely
on
on persons
persons from
from throughout
throughout the
the
region
region to
to drive
drive sales..
sales..
Total
Total Demand
Demand Potential:
Potential: $196.4M
$196.4M
Total
Total Sales
Sales Volume:
Volume: $196.4M
$196.4M
Local
Local Market
Market Leakage:
Leakage: ($0)
($0)
Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; InfoUSA; Economics Research Associates, 2008.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Two Notch Road Retail Analysis
Page 25
Corridor Assessment: Strengths, Weaknesses, Needs/Concerns
Overall
Overall Retail
Retail Demand
Demand
Total
Total retail
retail demand
demand in
in the
the select
select categories,
categories,
including
eating
and
drinking
places,
including eating and drinking places, is
is
$196.4M.
$175.92M
of
which
will
be
for
$196.4M. $175.92M of which will be for
retail
retail in
in the
the select
select categories
categories and
and $20.52
$20.52 for
for
eating
and
drinking
places.
eating and drinking places.
Assessment
Assessment
ERA’s
ERA’s overall
overall assessment
assessment of
of the
the Two
Two Notch
Notch
North
North corridor
corridor is
is that
that itit suitably
suitably offers
offers aa space
space
in
the
city
for
large
scale
retail.
It
is
not
local
in the city for large scale retail. It is not local
serving
serving and
and should
should be
be considered
considered differently
differently
from
other
corridors;
retail
offerings
from other corridors; retail offerings consist
consist
of
of aa variety
variety of
of medium
medium to
to large
large format
format
national
national chain
chain retailers.
retailers.
The
The area
area has
has some
some large
large empty
empty lots
lots and
and
streetscaping
streetscaping issues
issues which
which break
break up
up its
its
continuity,
these
are
very
similar
to
the
continuity, these are very similar to the issues
issues
mentioned
mentioned for
for Two
Two Notch
Notch South.
South.
The
The estimated
estimated local
local market
market leakage
leakage of
of $0
$0 occurs
occurs
because
because of
of the
the large
large amount
amount of
of inflow
inflow
spending.
spending. Any
Any future
future growth
growth in
in retail
retail sales
sales
will
will likely
likely rely
rely on
on an
an increased
increased capture
capture of
of
outside
spending,
not
an
increase
in
captured
outside spending, not an increase in captured
spending
spending from
from the
the local
local market
market segments.
segments.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Two Notch Road Retail Analysis
Market
Market Strengths
Strengths
¾
¾ Local
Local malls
malls are
are have
have aa huge
huge outside
outside draw.
draw. They
They are
are able
able to
to attract
attract
aa customer
customer base
base from
from outside
outside the
the trade
trade area
area because
because of
of the
the many
many
offerings.
offerings.
¾
¾ Good
Good quality
quality retail
retail corridor
corridor –– successful
successful in
in what
what itit aims
aims to
to do.
do.
¾
¾ Large
Large variety
variety of
of both
both local
local and
and national
national retail
retail tenants.
tenants.
Market
Market Weaknesses
Weaknesses
¾
¾ Many
Many payday
payday loan
loan shops,
shops, few
few full
full service
service banks.
banks.
¾
¾ Concerns
Concerns of
of Two
Two Notch
Notch South
South also
also apply
apply also
also to
to Two
Two Notch
Notch North:
North:
¾
¾
Finding
Finding uses
uses for
for former
former auto
auto lots.
lots.
¾
¾
Signage,
Signage, roadway,
roadway, pedestrian
pedestrian circulation,
circulation, and
and lighting.
lighting.
¾
¾
Maintaining
Maintaining variety
variety and
and quality
quality of
of retail
retail offerings.
offerings.
Future
Future Needs/Concerns
Needs/Concerns
¾
¾ Many
Many of
of the
the same
same concerns
concerns of
of Two
Two Notch
Notch South
South apply
apply to
to Two
Two
Notch
North
and
should
be
addressed
in
the
same
way,
however
Notch North and should be addressed in the same way, however
given
given that
that Two
Two Notch
Notch North
North is
is outside
outside of
of the
the city
city limits,
limits, these
these issues
issues
may
may required
required different
different approached.
approached.
¾
¾ Maintaining
Maintaining quality
quality and
and moving
moving forward
forward with
with improvements
improvements are
are aa
primary
primary concern.
concern. Two
Two Notch
Notch North
North is
is the
the strongest
strongest retail
retail ‘corridor’
‘corridor’
and
its
future
will
depend
on
staying
competitive
to
draw
and its future will depend on staying competitive to draw
customers.
customers.
Page 26
Strategic Needs Assessment and Recommendations
Recommendation
Recommendation 4:
4: Maintain
Maintain Quality
Quality
Strategic
Strategic Needs
Needs Assessment
Assessment
Two
Two Notch
Notch North
North is
is aa primarily
primarily commercial
commercial
corridor
occupied
for
the
most
corridor occupied for the most part
part by
by strip
strip
style
style shopping
shopping centers,
centers, malls,
malls, and
and large
large
retailers.
retailers. The
The future
future of
of the
the corridor
corridor will
will
depend
depend on
on maintaining
maintaining aa level
level of
of quality
quality for
for
the
the current
current offerings.
offerings.
ERA
ERA does
does not
not have
have recommendations
recommendations for
for new
new
retail
retail development
development along
along Two
Two Notch
Notch North.
North.
The
focus
should
be
on
maintaining
the
The focus should be on maintaining the
quality
quality level
level at
at the
the local
local shopping
shopping centers
centers and
and
malls.
malls.
Recommendations
Recommendations made
made for
for Two
Two Notch
Notch South
South
apply
in
some
ways
to
Two
Notch
North.
apply in some ways to Two Notch North. The
The
corridors
corridors are
are similar
similar in
in that
that both
both have
have some
some
large
large empty
empty lots
lots and
and have
have similar
similar
streetscaping
and
signage
issues.
streetscaping and signage issues.
These
These strategic
strategic recommendations
recommendations would
would work
work to
to
supplement
already
existing
efforts
and
supplement already existing efforts and
programs
programs offered
offered by
by the
the City
City of
of Columbia
Columbia and
and
the
Center
City
Commission.
the Center City Commission.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Two Notch Road Retail Analysis
Two
Two Notch
Notch North
North contributes
contributes to
to the
the city
city by
by offering
offering aa space
space for
for
large
format
retail.
With
no
improvements,
the
area
can
large format retail. With no improvements, the area can
continue
continue to
to attract
attract customers
customers from
from throughout
throughout the
the region
region
because
because of
of its
its unique
unique offerings.
offerings. No
No improvements
improvements also
also mean
mean
that
the
corridor
will
continue
being
largely
disjointed
and
that the corridor will continue being largely disjointed and retail
retail
at
at smaller
smaller businesses
businesses along
along the
the corridor
corridor will
will not
not fully
fully benefit
benefit
from
from their
their location
location next
next to
to the
the mall.
mall.
Maintaining
Maintaining the
the quality
quality at
at local
local malls
malls and
and shopping
shopping centers
centers is
is the
the
duty
of
the
property
managers.
Primary
concerns
are:
duty of the property managers. Primary concerns are:
¾
¾ Balancing
Balancing aa proper
proper tenant
tenant mix.
mix.
¾
¾ Maintaining
Maintaining aa constant
constant level
level of
of quality
quality at
at the
the malls.
malls.
¾
¾ Keep
Keep storefronts
storefronts occupied
occupied and
and vacancy
vacancy low.
low.
¾
¾ Remaining
Remaining competitive
competitive with
with other
other offerings.
offerings.
¾
¾ Supporting
Supporting local
local tenants
tenants as
as well
well as
as national
national tenants.
tenants.
Recommendation
Recommendation 5:
5: Small
Small Business
Business Assistance
Assistance
Given
Given the
the many
many franchise
franchise tenants
tenants along
along the
the corridor
corridor which
which benefit
benefit
from
corporate
assistance
and
leadership,
outreach
to
new
from corporate assistance and leadership, outreach to new small
small
business
business will
will be
be important
important to
to ensure
ensure that
that they
they can
can be
be
competitive.
competitive. New
New business
business owners
owners may
may need
need assistance
assistance
developing
developing aa business
business plan,
plan, deciding
deciding on
on aa merchandise
merchandise mix,
mix,
advertising,
advertising, and
and with
with general
general strategy
strategy and
and execution
execution to
to remain
remain
competitive.
competitive.
Page 27
Recommendation: Maintain Corridor Quality
Columbia
Columbia Place
Place Mall
Mall
Local
Local Shopping
Shopping Centers
Centers
Columbia
Columbia place
place mall
mall makes
makes up
up aa large
large part
part of
of sales
sales for
for
the
Two
Notch
North
Corridor.
The
mall
is
well
the Two Notch North Corridor. The mall is well
tenanted
tenanted and
and offers
offers aa good
good mix
mix of
of retail
retail -- both
both
national
and
local
tenants.
Anchored
by
a
Dillards,
national and local tenants. Anchored by a Dillards,
Macy’s,
Macy’s, and
and Sears,
Sears, and
and movie
movie theater,
theater, the
the mall
mall is
is
able
to
attract
a
great
deal
of
people
from
able to attract a great deal of people from
throughout
throughout the
the city
city and
and the
the county.
county. Maintaining
Maintaining the
the
malls
malls quality
quality is
is critical
critical to
to the
the future
future of
of the
the corridor.
corridor.
Local
Local shopping
shopping centers
centers should
should have
have aa good
good mix
mix of
of tenants
tenants
and
offerings
in
order
to
be
successful
and
remain
and offerings in order to be successful and remain
competitive
competitive with
with the
the mall.
mall. There
There are
are aa large
large amount
amount of
of
payday
loan
shops
and
offering
‘real’
banking
alternatives
payday loan shops and offering ‘real’ banking alternatives
should
should be
be aa priority.
priority. Most
Most small
small shopping
shopping centers
centers focus
focus on
on
basic
basic services
services such
such aa hair
hair saloons,
saloons, financial
financial services,
services,
groceries,
clothing
and
clothing
accessories,
groceries, clothing and clothing accessories, and
and quick
quick
service
service food.
food.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Two Notch Road Retail Analysis
Page 28
Table of Contents
I.
Two Notch Corridor
II.
Two Notch South
III.
Two Notch North
IV.
Summary
V.
Appendix
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Two Notch Road Retail Analysis
Page 29
Two Notch Corridor, North and South Wrap Up
Summary
Summary
Two
Two Notch
Notch corridor
corridor offers
offers aa variety
variety of
of
medium
medium to
to large
large scale
scale retail.
retail. ItIt relies
relies on
on
persons
from
throughout
the
city
and
persons from throughout the city and
county
county to
to drive
drive sales
sales and
and can
can be
be
considered
a
destination
shopping
considered a destination shopping
corridor.
corridor.
Two
Two Notch
Notch South
South has
has weaknesses
weaknesses similar
similar
to
to Two
Two Notch
Notch North
North –– streetscaping,
streetscaping,
lighting,
lighting, and
and signage;
signage; improvements
improvements
would
better
the
overall
would better the overall quality
quality of
of the
the
retail
retail environment.
environment. The
The corridor
corridor also
also
suffers
suffers from
from many
many vacant
vacant or
or
underutilized
underutilized lots
lots which
which would
would benefit
benefit
from
from new
new uses
uses or
or aa mix
mix of
of new
new uses.
uses.
Without
Without change,
change, there
there are
are no
no immediate
immediate
risks
risks or
or threats
threats that
that ERA
ERA has
has analyzed
analyzed
for
the
Two
Notch
corridor.
The
for the Two Notch corridor. The
corridor
corridor offers
offers large
large scale
scale retail
retail and
and is
is
able
to
draw
many
customers.
It
suffers
able to draw many customers. It suffers
from
from issues
issues which
which while
while noticeable,
noticeable,
most
most likely
likely do
do not
not have
have aa large
large impact
impact
over
changing
the
corridor
completely.
over changing the corridor completely.
Future
Future sales
sales growth
growth will
will depend
depend on
on
increasing
inflow
sales
by
competitively
increasing inflow sales by competitively
drawing
drawing more
more customers
customers from
from outside
outside
the
trade
areas.
the trade areas.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Two Notch Road Retail Analysis
Summary
Summary of
of Recommendation
Recommendation 11
Physical
Physical improvements
improvements to
to the
the corridor
corridor can
can overall
overall improve
improve its
its quality.
quality. Streetscaping,
Streetscaping,
lighting,
signage,
and
pedestrian
circulation
are
the
most
noticeably
lighting, signage, and pedestrian circulation are the most noticeably lacking.
lacking.
While
While these
these physical
physical improvements
improvements may
may not
not dramatically
dramatically increase
increase sales,
sales, they
they will
will
create
create an
an overall
overall better
better retail
retail environment
environment and
and help
help customer
customer draw.
draw.
Summary
Summary of
of Recommendation
Recommendation 22
AA mix
mix of
of uses
uses presents
presents the
the opportunity
opportunity to
to diversify
diversify the
the local
local economy
economy of
of the
the
corridor.
corridor. AA combination
combination of
of office,
office, retail,
retail, residential,
residential, of
of light
light
industrial/warehousing
industrial/warehousing and
and distribution
distribution may
may be
be aa new
new way
way to
to occupy
occupy large
large empty
empty
parcels.
Risks
with
mixed
use
development
are
that
if
one
use
is
unsuccessful
parcels. Risks with mixed use development are that if one use is unsuccessful itit
will
will negatively
negatively impact
impact the
the other
other uses
uses..
Summary
Summary of
of Recommendation
Recommendation 33
Convenience
Convenience and
and neighborhood
neighborhood style
style shopping
shopping centers
centers would
would best
best fit
fit the
the character
character
of
the
corridor.
These
shopping
centers
would
be
able
to
offer
the
basics
of the corridor. These shopping centers would be able to offer the basics which
which
are
are needed
needed by
by local
local residents
residents who
who do
do not
not have
have the
the means
means or
or desire
desire to
to travel
travel up
up
further
to
Two
Notch
North.
further to Two Notch North.
Summary
Summary of
of Recommendation
Recommendation 44
The
The future
future of
of the
the corridor
corridor relies
relies primarily
primarily on
on maintaining
maintaining quality
quality and
and remaining
remaining
competitive.
The
competitive
context
of
the
city
should
be
taken
into
competitive. The competitive context of the city should be taken into
consideration
consideration as
as new
new retail
retail isis development
development and
and staying
staying competitive
competitive by
by satisfying
satisfying
the
the needs
needs and
and wants
wants of
of shoppers
shoppers will
will be
be aa priority.
priority.
Summary
Summary of
of Recommendation
Recommendation 55
Small
Small business
business often
often may
may lack
lack the
the necessary
necessary knowledge
knowledge to
to compete
compete with
with large
large
national
national franchise
franchise stores.
stores. Reaching
Reaching out
out to
to small
small businesses
businesses will
will assist
assist them
them to
to
remain
competitive
and
provide
the
knowledge
and
tools
they
need
to
stay
remain competitive and provide the knowledge and tools they need to stay
competitive.
competitive.
Page 30
Table of Contents
I.
Two Notch Corridor
II.
Two Notch South
III.
Two Notch North
IV.
Summary
V.
Appendix
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Two Notch Road Retail Analysis
Page 31
Appendix – Two Notch South
Two Notch South Corridor Trade Area Overview
Summary Demographics
2007
2012
CAGR
Real Growth Rate
Population
Households
Average Houshold Income
Median Household Income
Total Area Income
9,641
3,210
$33,393
$18,129
$321,941,913
9,548
3,220
$37,033
$20,055
$353,591,084
-0.19%
0.06%
2.09%
2.04%
1.89%
-0.06%
Workforce
2007
2012
Businesses
Employees
Office Employees
408
5,351
4,335
4,772
Demand (Retail Spending Potential)
Residents
Employees
Inflow
Total
Supply (Retail Sales)
Retail (Select Categories)
Apparel & Apparel Services
HH Furnishings & Electronics
Personal Care & Services
Food and Beverage
Total
Area Surplus/Retail Gap (2007)
Retail
Food and Beverage
Leakage/Surplus Factor
Retail
$9,942,242
$4,137,324
$62,100
$14,141,666
2007
F&B
$5,576,097
$4,983,516
$221,450
$10,781,063
2012
Retail
F&B
$9,912,637
$5,559,493
$4,554,604
$5,486,141
$62,100
$221,450
$14,529,341
$11,267,084
2007
$1,242,000
$840,000
$0
$402,000
$4,429,000
$5,671,000
-$12,899,666
-$6,352,063
-62.9%
-$19,251,729
Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; InfoUSA; Economics Research Associates, 2008.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Two Notch Road Retail Analysis
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Appendix – Two Notch North
Two Notch North Corridor Trade Area Overview
Summary Demographics
2007
2012
CAGR
Real Growth Rate
Population
Households
Average Houshold Income
Median Household Income
Total Area Income
7,246
3,122
$58,291
$45,994
$422,376,586
7,296
3,198
$66,826
$52,238
$487,562,496
0.14%
0.48%
2.77%
2.58%
2.91%
0.62%
2007
2012
1,205
12,294
8,719
9,488
Workforce
Businesses
Employees
Office Employees
Demand (Retail Spending Potential)
Residents
Employees
Inflow
Total
Supply (Retail Sales)
Retail (Select Categories)
Apparel & Apparel Services
HH Furnishings & Electronics
Personal Care & Services
Food and Beverage
Total
Area Surplus/Retail Gap (2007)
Retail
Food and Beverage
Leakage/Surplus Factor
Retail
$16,737,485
$8,321,414
$150,867,102
$175,926,000
2007
F&B
$9,165,224
$10,023,362
$1,329,414
$20,518,000
2012
Retail
F&B
$17,262,934
$9,452,953
$9,055,039
$10,907,034
$150,867,102
$1,329,414
$177,185,075
$21,689,400
2007
$175,926,000
$70,395,000
$95,182,000
$10,349,000
$20,518,000
$196,444,000
$0
$0
0.0%
Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; InfoUSA; Economics Research Associates, 2008.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Two Notch Road Retail Analysis
Page 33
General Limiting Conditions
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the date of this study; however, factors exist that are outside the control of Economics Research
Associates and that may affect the estimates and/or projections noted herein. This study is based on
estimates, assumptions and other information developed by Economics Research Associates from its
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in reporting by the client, the client’s agent and representatives, or any other data source used in preparing
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ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Two Notch Road Retail Analysis
Page 34