Option 3: Replace the Mortgage Interest Deduction with a 15... Baseline: Current Law

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14-Dec-15 PRELIMINARY RESULTS

Click on PDF or Excel link above for additional tables containing more detail and breakdowns by filing status and demographic groups.

http://www.taxpolicycenter.org

Table T15-0226

Option 3: Replace the Mortgage Interest Deduction with a 15 Percent Non-refundable Credit

Baseline: Current Law

Distribution of Federal Tax Change by Expanded Cash Income Percentile, 2016 ¹

Summary Table

Expanded Cash Income

Percentile

2,3

With Tax Cut

Pct of Tax Units

Tax Units with Tax Increase or Cut

4

Avg Tax Cut

With Tax Increase

Pct of Tax Units

Avg Tax

Increase

Percent Change in After-Tax

Income

5

Share of Total

Federal Tax

Change

Average

Federal Tax

Change ($)

Average Federal Tax Rate

Change (%

Points)

6

Under the

Proposal

Lowest Quintile

Second Quintile

Middle Quintile

Fourth Quintile

Top Quintile

All

Addendum

80-90

90-95

95-99

Top 1 Percent

Top 0.1 Percent

0.8

7.9

24.0

36.6

15.0

14.8

22.8

9.4

3.7

5.2

10.4

-208

-280

-332

-484

-528

-414

-503

-541

-590

-1,446

-1,801

0.0

0.6

5.1

16.4

58.3

11.9

47.5

66.6

76.1

62.0

42.8

0

350

451

698

1,751

1,385

917

1,466

2,813

5,157

6,176

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

-0.4

-0.2

-0.2

-0.5

-0.7

-0.2

0.0

-0.4

-4.2

-10.8

-9.9

125.3

100.0

22.0

30.8

52.8

19.7

1.6

-2

-20

-56

-62

942

103

321

926

2,118

3,120

2,457

0.0

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

0.3

0.1

0.2

0.4

0.5

0.1

0.0

4.2

8.3

13.7

17.4

26.6

20.5

20.5

22.6

26.3

34.2

35.7

Source: Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center Microsimulation Model (version 0515-3).

Number of AMT Taxpayers (millions). Baseline: 4.3 Proposal: 4.9

* Less than 0.05

** Insufficient data

(1) Calendar year. Baseline is current law. Proposal would replace the deduction for mortgage interest with a 15 percent non-refundable credit subject to current law limits

($1,000,000 of debt on a primary residence or second home, and $100,000 in home equity loans). Estimates are static and do not assume that taxpayers would adjust their investment portfolio and pay down their mortgage balance if their tax benefit from mortgage interest was reduced. For a description of TPC’s current law baseline, see http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxtopics/Baseline-Definitions.cfm

(2) Includes both filing and non-filing units but excludes those that are dependents of other tax units. Tax units with negative adjusted gross income are excluded from their respective income class but are included in the totals. For a description of expanded cash income, see http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/TaxModel/income.cfm

(3) The income percentile classes used in this table are based on the income distribution for the entire population and contain an equal number of people, not tax units. The breaks are (in 2015 dollars):

20% $22,823; 40% $44,550; 60% $79,661; 80% $141,303; 90% $207,758; 95% $294,348; 99% $720,886; 99.9% $3,672,221.

(4) Includes tax units with a change in federal tax burden of $10 or more in absolute value.

(5) After-tax income is expanded cash income less: individual income tax net of refundable credits; corporate income tax; payroll taxes (Social Security and Medicare); estate tax; and excise taxes.

(6) Average federal tax (includes individual and corporate income tax, payroll taxes for Social Security and Medicare, the estate tax, and excise taxes) as a percentage of average expanded cash income.

14-Dec-15 PRELIMINARY RESULTS

Table T15-0226

Option 3: Replace the Mortgage Interest Deduction with a 15 Percent Non-refundable Credit

Baseline: Current Law

Distribution of Federal Tax Change by Expanded Cash Income Percentile, 2016 ¹

Detail Table

Expanded Cash Income

Percentile

2,3

Lowest Quintile

Second Quintile

Middle Quintile

Fourth Quintile

Top Quintile

All

Addendum

80-90

90-95

95-99

Top 1 Percent

Top 0.1 Percent

Percent of Tax Units

4

With Tax Cut

With Tax

Increase

0.8

7.9

24.0

36.6

15.0

14.8

0.0

0.6

5.1

16.4

58.3

11.9

22.8

9.4

3.7

5.2

10.4

47.5

66.6

76.1

62.0

42.8

Percent Change in After-Tax

Income

5

Share of Total

Federal Tax

Change

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

-0.4

-0.2

-0.4

-4.2

-10.8

-9.9

125.3

100.0

-0.2

-0.5

-0.7

-0.2

0.0

22.0

30.8

52.8

19.7

1.6

Average Federal Tax Change

Dollars Percent

321

926

2,118

3,120

2,457

-2

-20

-56

-62

942

103

-0.3

-0.7

-0.7

-0.3

1.1

0.6

0.9

1.7

2.0

0.4

0.1

Share of Federal Taxes

Change (%

Points)

Under the

Proposal

0.0

0.0

-0.1

-0.2

0.3

0.0

0.9

3.4

9.3

17.3

69.0

100.0

0.1

0.1

0.2

-0.1

-0.1

14.1

10.8

16.0

28.1

13.4

http://www.taxpolicycenter.org

Average Federal Tax Rate

6

Change (%

Points)

Under the

Proposal

0.0

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

0.3

0.1

4.2

8.3

13.7

17.4

26.6

20.5

0.2

0.4

0.5

0.1

0.0

20.5

22.6

26.3

34.2

35.7

Baseline Distribution of Income and Federal Taxes by Expanded Cash Income Percentile, 2016 ¹

Expanded Cash Income

Percentile

2,3

Tax Units

Number

(thousands)

Percent of

Total

Pre-Tax Income

Average (dollars)

Percent of

Total

Federal Tax Burden

Average (dollars)

Percent of

Total

After-Tax Income

5

Average (dollars)

Percent of

Total

Average

Federal Tax

Rate

6

Lowest Quintile

Second Quintile

Middle Quintile

Fourth Quintile

Top Quintile

All

Addendum

80-90

90-95

95-99

Top 1 Percent

Top 0.1 Percent

47,691

37,422

33,984

28,418

23,750

172,532

12,233

5,942

4,447

1,129

115

27.6

21.7

19.7

16.5

13.8

100.0

7.1

3.4

2.6

0.7

0.1

13,336

33,359

61,542

107,903

336,456

86,987

173,085

248,145

420,979

2,239,143

10,045,915

4.2

8.3

13.9

20.4

53.2

100.0

14.1

9.8

12.5

16.8

7.7

568

2,782

8,456

18,784

88,524

17,747

35,184

55,136

108,599

763,369

3,579,846

0.9

3.4

9.4

17.4

68.7

100.0

14.1

10.7

15.8

28.1

13.5

12,768

30,577

53,086

89,120

247,931

69,241

137,901

193,009

312,380

1,475,774

6,466,069

5.1

9.6

15.1

21.2

49.3

100.0

14.1

9.6

11.6

13.9

6.3

4.3

8.3

13.7

17.4

26.3

20.4

20.3

22.2

25.8

34.1

35.6

Source: Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center Microsimulation Model (version 0515-3).

Number of AMT Taxpayers (millions). Baseline: 4.3 Proposal: 4.9

* Less than 0.05

(1) Calendar year. Baseline is current law. Proposal would replace the deduction for mortgage interest with a 15 percent non-refundable credit subject to current law limits

($1,000,000 of debt on a primary residence or second home, and $100,000 in home equity loans). Estimates are static and do not assume that taxpayers would adjust their investment portfolio and pay down their mortgage balance if their tax benefit from mortgage interest was reduced. For a description of TPC’s current law baseline, see http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxtopics/Baseline-Definitions.cfm

(2) Includes both filing and non-filing units but excludes those that are dependents of other tax units. Tax units with negative adjusted gross income are excluded from their respective income class but are included in the totals. For a description of expanded cash income, see http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/TaxModel/income.cfm

(3) The income percentile classes used in this table are based on the income distribution for the entire population and contain an equal number of people, not tax units. The breaks are (in 2015 dollars): 20%

$22,823; 40% $44,550; 60% $79,661; 80% $141,303; 90% $207,758; 95% $294,348; 99% $720,886; 99.9% $3,672,221.

(4) Includes tax units with a change in federal tax burden of $10 or more in absolute value.

(5) After-tax income is expanded cash income less: individual income tax net of refundable credits; corporate income tax; payroll taxes (Social Security and Medicare); estate tax; and excise taxes.

(6) Average federal tax (includes individual and corporate income tax, payroll taxes for Social Security and Medicare, the estate tax, and excise taxes) as a percentage of average expanded cash income.

14-Dec-15 PRELIMINARY RESULTS

Table T15-0226

Option 3: Replace the Mortgage Interest Deduction with a 15 Percent Non-refundable Credit

Baseline: Current Law

Distribution of Federal Tax Change by Expanded Cash Income Percentile Adjusted for Family Size, 2016 ¹

Detail Table

Expanded Cash Income

Percentile

2,3

Lowest Quintile

Second Quintile

Middle Quintile

Fourth Quintile

Top Quintile

All

Addendum

80-90

90-95

95-99

Top 1 Percent

Top 0.1 Percent

Percent of Tax Units

4

With Tax Cut

With Tax

Increase

0.4

3.9

22.4

35.9

15.2

14.8

*

1.3

1.7

12.7

50.9

11.9

22.2

10.8

4.7

4.9

9.5

41.3

56.2

67.8

60.7

40.9

Percent Change in After-Tax

Income

5

Share of Total

Federal Tax

Change

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.1

-0.4

-0.2

-0.1

-1.2

-14.9

-13.1

129.2

100.0

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.2

0.0

24.9

30.2

53.5

20.6

1.7

Average Federal Tax Change

Dollars Percent

286

714

1,660

2,787

2,279

0

-6

-77

-72

765

103

-0.8

-0.3

-1.2

-0.5

1.0

0.6

1.0

1.5

1.8

0.4

0.1

Share of Federal Taxes

Change (%

Points)

Under the

Proposal

0.0

0.0

-0.1

-0.2

0.3

0.0

0.1

2.4

7.5

16.5

73.4

100.0

0.1

0.1

0.2

-0.1

-0.1

15.2

11.8

17.5

29.0

14.0

http://www.taxpolicycenter.org

Average Federal Tax Rate

6

Change (%

Points)

Under the

Proposal

0.0

0.0

-0.1

-0.1

0.3

0.1

0.5

6.8

12.3

16.8

26.2

20.5

0.2

0.3

0.5

0.1

0.0

20.3

22.5

25.9

34.1

35.7

Baseline Distribution of Income and Federal Taxes by Expanded Cash Income Percentile Adjusted for Family Size, 2016 ¹

Expanded Cash Income

Percentile

2,3

Tax Units

Number

(thousands)

Percent of

Total

Pre-Tax Income

Average (dollars)

Percent of

Total

Federal Tax Burden

Average (dollars)

Percent of

Total

After-Tax Income

5

Average (dollars)

Percent of

Total

Average

Federal Tax

Rate

6

Lowest Quintile

Second Quintile

Middle Quintile

Fourth Quintile

Top Quintile

All

Addendum

80-90

90-95

95-99

Top 1 Percent

Top 0.1 Percent

38,232

36,211

34,505

32,174

30,143

172,532

15,518

7,548

5,756

1,321

136

22.2

21.0

20.0

18.7

17.5

100.0

9.0

4.4

3.3

0.8

0.1

12,438

29,245

53,941

94,039

285,692

86,987

147,812

214,051

361,215

1,985,313

8,905,644

3.2

7.1

12.4

20.2

57.4

100.0

15.3

10.8

13.9

17.5

8.1

57

2,000

6,723

15,900

74,202

17,747

29,773

47,345

91,720

673,125

3,173,218

0.1

2.4

7.6

16.7

73.1

100.0

15.1

11.7

17.2

29.1

14.1

12,381

27,245

47,219

78,139

211,490

69,241

118,039

166,706

269,496

1,312,188

5,732,427

4.0

8.3

13.6

21.0

53.4

100.0

15.3

10.5

13.0

14.5

6.5

0.5

6.8

12.5

16.9

26.0

20.4

20.1

22.1

25.4

33.9

35.6

Source: Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center Microsimulation Model (version 0515-3).

Number of AMT Taxpayers (millions). Baseline: 4.3 Proposal: 4.9

* Less than 0.05

(1) Calendar year. Baseline is current law. Proposal would replace the deduction for mortgage interest with a 15 percent non-refundable credit subject to current law limits

($1,000,000 of debt on a primary residence or second home, and $100,000 in home equity loans). Estimates are static and do not assume that taxpayers would adjust their investment portfolio and pay down their mortgage balance if their tax benefit from mortgage interest was reduced. For a description of TPC’s current law baseline, see http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxtopics/Baseline-Definitions.cfm

(2) Includes both filing and non-filing units but excludes those that are dependents of other tax units. Tax units with negative adjusted gross income are excluded from their respective income class but are included in the totals. For a description of expanded cash income, see http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/TaxModel/income.cfm

(3) The income percentile classes used in this table are based on the income distribution for the entire population and contain an equal number of people, not tax units. The incomes used are adjusted for family size by dividing by the square root of the number of people in the tax unit. The resulting percentile breaks are (in 2015 dollars): 20% $15,856; 40% $29,550; 60% $51,312; 80% $85,800; 90% $124,732; 95%

$174,098; 99% $413,202; 99.9% $2,095,408.

(4) Includes tax units with a change in federal tax burden of $10 or more in absolute value.

(5) After-tax income is expanded cash income less: individual income tax net of refundable credits; corporate income tax; payroll taxes (Social Security and Medicare); estate tax; and excise taxes.

(6) Average federal tax (includes individual and corporate income tax, payroll taxes for Social Security and Medicare, the estate tax, and excise taxes) as a percentage of average expanded cash income.

14-Dec-15 PRELIMINARY RESULTS

Table T15-0226

Option 3: Replace the Mortgage Interest Deduction with a 15 Percent Non-refundable Credit

Baseline: Current Law

Distribution of Federal Tax Change by Expanded Cash Income Percentile Adjusted for Family Size, 2016 ¹

Detail Table - Single Tax Units

Expanded Cash Income

Percentile

2,3

Lowest Quintile

Second Quintile

Middle Quintile

Fourth Quintile

Top Quintile

All

Addendum

80-90

90-95

95-99

Top 1 Percent

Top 0.1 Percent

Percent of Tax Units

4

With Tax Cut

With Tax

Increase

0.5

2.9

15.6

23.2

10.1

8.4

0.0

0.1

0.2

12.2

39.0

5.8

14.1

6.1

1.8

3.2

6.8

34.1

42.0

50.9

49.9

37.6

Percent Change in After-Tax

Income

5

Share of Total

Federal Tax

Change

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

-0.3

-0.1

-0.5

-5.4

-25.7

4.2

127.3

100.0

-0.3

-0.4

-0.5

-0.2

-0.1

38.7

27.8

45.3

15.6

2.0

Average Federal Tax Change

Dollars Percent

216

402

954

1,907

1,978

-1

-7

-42

10

420

33

-0.1

-0.4

-0.8

0.1

0.9

0.4

1.0

1.2

1.5

0.3

0.1

Share of Federal Taxes

Change (%

Points)

Under the

Proposal

0.0

-0.1

-0.2

-0.1

0.3

0.0

2.1

5.9

13.7

22.2

55.9

100.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

16.2

9.4

12.1

18.2

9.7

http://www.taxpolicycenter.org

Average Federal Tax Rate

6

Change (%

Points)

Under the

Proposal

0.0

0.0

-0.1

0.0

0.2

0.1

6.2

8.6

13.6

18.3

26.3

18.6

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.1

0.0

21.5

22.9

26.2

36.4

37.4

Baseline Distribution of Income and Federal Taxes by Expanded Cash Income Percentile Adjusted for Family Size, 2016 ¹

Expanded Cash Income

Percentile

2,3

Tax Units

Number

(thousands)

Percent of

Total

Pre-Tax Income

Average (dollars)

Percent of

Total

Federal Tax Burden

Average (dollars)

Percent of

Total

After-Tax Income

5

Average (dollars)

Percent of

Total

Average

Federal Tax

Rate

6

Lowest Quintile

Second Quintile

Middle Quintile

Fourth Quintile

Top Quintile

All

Addendum

80-90

90-95

95-99

Top 1 Percent

Top 0.1 Percent

25,683

21,585

17,636

12,851

8,784

87,180

5,172

2,001

1,374

237

29

29.5

24.8

20.2

14.7

10.1

100.0

5.9

2.3

1.6

0.3

0.0

9,700

23,067

41,046

68,044

175,035

44,584

105,179

148,758

244,058

1,524,021

6,406,099

6.4

12.8

18.6

22.5

39.6

100.0

14.0

7.7

8.6

9.3

4.8

598

1,993

5,642

12,461

45,615

8,266

22,416

33,635

62,976

553,461

2,391,340

2.1

6.0

13.8

22.2

55.6

100.0

16.1

9.3

12.0

18.2

9.7

9,102

21,074

35,404

55,583

129,420

36,317

82,763

115,123

181,081

970,560

4,014,758

7.4

14.4

19.7

22.6

35.9

100.0

13.5

7.3

7.9

7.3

3.7

6.2

8.6

13.8

18.3

26.1

18.5

21.3

22.6

25.8

36.3

37.3

Source: Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center Microsimulation Model (version 0515-3).

* Less than 0.05

(1) Calendar year. Baseline is current law. Proposal would replace the deduction for mortgage interest with a 15 percent non-refundable credit subject to current law limits

($1,000,000 of debt on a primary residence or second home, and $100,000 in home equity loans). Estimates are static and do not assume that taxpayers would adjust their investment portfolio and pay down their mortgage balance if their tax benefit from mortgage interest was reduced. For a description of TPC’s current law baseline, see http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxtopics/Baseline-Definitions.cfm

(2) Includes both filing and non-filing units but excludes those that are dependents of other tax units. Tax units with negative adjusted gross income are excluded from their respective income class but are included in the totals. For a description of expanded cash income, see http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/TaxModel/income.cfm

(3) The income percentile classes used in this table are based on the income distribution for the entire population and contain an equal number of people, not tax units. The incomes used are adjusted for family size by dividing by the square root of the number of people in the tax unit. The resulting percentile breaks are (in 2015 dollars): 20% $15,856; 40% $29,550; 60% $51,312; 80% $85,800; 90% $124,732; 95%

$174,098; 99% $413,202; 99.9% $2,095,408.

(4) Includes tax units with a change in federal tax burden of $10 or more in absolute value.

(5) After-tax income is expanded cash income less: individual income tax net of refundable credits; corporate income tax; payroll taxes (Social Security and Medicare); estate tax; and excise taxes.

(6) Average federal tax (includes individual and corporate income tax, payroll taxes for Social Security and Medicare, the estate tax, and excise taxes) as a percentage of average expanded cash income.

14-Dec-15 PRELIMINARY RESULTS

Table T15-0226

Option 3: Replace the Mortgage Interest Deduction with a 15 Percent Non-refundable Credit

Baseline: Current Law

Distribution of Federal Tax Change by Expanded Cash Income Percentile Adjusted for Family Size, 2016 ¹

Detail Table - Married Tax Units Filing Jointly

Expanded Cash Income

Percentile

2,3

Lowest Quintile

Second Quintile

Middle Quintile

Fourth Quintile

Top Quintile

All

Addendum

80-90

90-95

95-99

Top 1 Percent

Top 0.1 Percent

Percent of Tax Units

4

With Tax Cut

With Tax

Increase

0.1

4.9

32.2

47.5

17.9

25.4

*

3.4

3.0

11.2

56.3

22.9

27.5

13.1

5.7

4.9

9.9

44.6

62.4

73.2

63.8

42.7

Percent Change in After-Tax

Income

5

Share of Total

Federal Tax

Change

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.2

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.1

-10.7

-18.2

128.9

100.0

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.2

0.0

20.7

30.2

56.0

22.0

1.7

Average Federal Tax Change

Dollars Percent

-139

-163

0

1

927

242

314

832

1,898

3,031

2,448

0.0

0.0

-1.7

-0.9

1.1

0.7

0.9

1.6

1.9

0.4

0.1

Share of Federal Taxes

Change (%

Points)

Under the

Proposal

0.0

0.0

-0.1

-0.2

0.3

0.0

-0.1

0.8

4.1

13.6

81.4

100.0

0.0

0.1

0.2

-0.1

-0.1

15.0

13.0

20.2

33.2

15.4

http://www.taxpolicycenter.org

Average Federal Tax Rate

6

Change (%

Points)

Under the

Proposal

0.0

0.0

-0.2

-0.1

0.3

0.2

-1.3

6.3

11.3

16.0

26.2

22.3

0.2

0.3

0.5

0.2

0.0

19.8

22.3

25.8

33.6

35.3

Baseline Distribution of Income and Federal Taxes by Expanded Cash Income Percentile Adjusted for Family Size, 2016 ¹

Expanded Cash Income

Percentile

2,3

Tax Units

Number

(thousands)

Percent of

Total

Pre-Tax Income

Average (dollars)

Percent of

Total

Federal Tax Burden

Average (dollars)

Percent of

Total

After-Tax Income

5

Average (dollars)

Percent of

Total

Average

Federal Tax

Rate

6

Lowest Quintile

Second Quintile

Middle Quintile

Fourth Quintile

Top Quintile

All

Addendum

80-90

90-95

95-99

Top 1 Percent

Top 0.1 Percent

4,872

6,661

10,912

15,713

19,617

58,288

9,309

5,126

4,159

1,023

97

8.4

11.4

18.7

27.0

33.7

100.0

16.0

8.8

7.1

1.8

0.2

18,801

41,196

71,227

115,487

338,411

164,217

172,936

241,837

403,001

2,065,598

9,569,483

1.0

2.9

8.1

19.0

69.4

100.0

16.8

13.0

17.5

22.1

9.7

-235

2,578

8,194

18,618

87,643

36,401

33,980

53,138

101,902

690,920

3,373,039

-0.1

0.8

4.2

13.8

81.0

100.0

14.9

12.8

20.0

33.3

15.5

19,035

38,618

63,033

96,869

250,768

127,815

138,956

188,699

301,099

1,374,678

6,196,444

1.2

3.5

9.2

20.4

66.0

100.0

17.4

13.0

16.8

18.9

8.1

-1.3

6.3

11.5

16.1

25.9

22.2

19.7

22.0

25.3

33.5

35.3

Source: Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center Microsimulation Model (version 0515-3).

* Less than 0.05

(1) Calendar year. Baseline is current law. Proposal would replace the deduction for mortgage interest with a 15 percent non-refundable credit subject to current law limits

($1,000,000 of debt on a primary residence or second home, and $100,000 in home equity loans). Estimates are static and do not assume that taxpayers would adjust their investment portfolio and pay down their mortgage balance if their tax benefit from mortgage interest was reduced. For a description of TPC’s current law baseline, see http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxtopics/Baseline-Definitions.cfm

(2) Includes both filing and non-filing units but excludes those that are dependents of other tax units. Tax units with negative adjusted gross income are excluded from their respective income class but are included in the totals. For a description of expanded cash income, see http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/TaxModel/income.cfm

(3) The income percentile classes used in this table are based on the income distribution for the entire population and contain an equal number of people, not tax units. The incomes used are adjusted for family size by dividing by the square root of the number of people in the tax unit. The resulting percentile breaks are (in 2015 dollars): 20% $15,856; 40% $29,550; 60% $51,312; 80% $85,800; 90% $124,732; 95%

$174,098; 99% $413,202; 99.9% $2,095,408.

(4) Includes tax units with a change in federal tax burden of $10 or more in absolute value.

(5) After-tax income is expanded cash income less: individual income tax net of refundable credits; corporate income tax; payroll taxes (Social Security and Medicare); estate tax; and excise taxes.

(6) Average federal tax (includes individual and corporate income tax, payroll taxes for Social Security and Medicare, the estate tax, and excise taxes) as a percentage of average expanded cash income.

14-Dec-15 PRELIMINARY RESULTS

Table T15-0226

Option 3: Replace the Mortgage Interest Deduction with a 15 Percent Non-refundable Credit

Baseline: Current Law

Distribution of Federal Tax Change by Expanded Cash Income Percentile Adjusted for Family Size, 2016 ¹

Detail Table - Head of Household Tax Units

Expanded Cash Income

Percentile

2,3

Lowest Quintile

Second Quintile

Middle Quintile

Fourth Quintile

Top Quintile

All

Addendum

80-90

90-95

95-99

Top 1 Percent

Top 0.1 Percent

Percent of Tax Units

4

With Tax Cut

With Tax

Increase

0.2

5.0

23.0

30.1

12.1

10.8

0.1

2.6

4.0

20.3

52.1

6.7

16.3

4.9

2.6

15.0

13.5

47.2

52.5

78.4

56.7

36.9

Percent Change in After-Tax

Income

5

Share of Total

Federal Tax

Change

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

-0.4

-0.1

-0.4

-9.1

-64.9

16.1

158.3

100.0

-0.4

-0.5

-0.7

-0.2

0.0

59.6

40.4

43.2

15.1

1.3

Average Federal Tax Change

Dollars Percent

420

767

1,726

2,698

2,101

0

-6

-64

28

703

21

0.0

-0.5

-0.9

0.2

1.2

0.3

1.4

1.7

2.0

0.4

0.1

Share of Federal Taxes

Change (%

Points)

Under the

Proposal

0.0

-0.1

-0.3

-0.1

0.4

0.0

-8.2

6.6

24.1

32.4

45.0

100.0

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

14.8

8.2

7.5

14.5

8.3

http://www.taxpolicycenter.org

Average Federal Tax Rate

6

Change (%

Points)

Under the

Proposal

0.0

0.0

-0.1

0.0

0.3

0.0

-9.6

3.7

11.3

17.2

25.5

11.9

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.1

0.0

21.2

22.9

26.2

34.2

35.9

Baseline Distribution of Income and Federal Taxes by Expanded Cash Income Percentile Adjusted for Family Size, 2016 ¹

Expanded Cash Income

Percentile

2,3

Tax Units

Number

(thousands)

Percent of

Total

Pre-Tax Income

Average (dollars)

Percent of

Total

Federal Tax Burden

Average (dollars)

Percent of

Total

After-Tax Income

5

Average (dollars)

Percent of

Total

Average

Federal Tax

Rate

6

Lowest Quintile

Second Quintile

Middle Quintile

Fourth Quintile

Top Quintile

All

Addendum

80-90

90-95

95-99

Top 1 Percent

Top 0.1 Percent

7,312

7,436

5,226

2,957

1,165

24,145

734

273

129

29

3

30.3

30.8

21.6

12.3

4.8

100.0

3.0

1.1

0.5

0.1

0.0

17,857

36,660

62,412

97,505

231,777

53,332

145,231

201,115

337,575

2,238,359

11,305,434

10.1

21.2

25.3

22.4

21.0

100.0

8.3

4.3

3.4

5.0

2.8

-1,713

1,365

7,117

16,727

58,374

6,313

30,410

45,291

86,585

763,247

4,060,765

-8.2

6.7

24.4

32.5

44.6

100.0

14.7

8.1

7.4

14.5

8.4

19,570

35,295

55,295

80,778

173,403

47,020

114,821

155,824

250,990

1,475,112

7,244,669

12.6

23.1

25.5

21.0

17.8

100.0

7.4

3.7

2.9

3.8

2.0

-9.6

3.7

11.4

17.2

25.2

11.8

20.9

22.5

25.7

34.1

35.9

Source: Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center Microsimulation Model (version 0515-3).

* Less than 0.05

(1) Calendar year. Baseline is current law. Proposal would replace the deduction for mortgage interest with a 15 percent non-refundable credit subject to current law limits

($1,000,000 of debt on a primary residence or second home, and $100,000 in home equity loans). Estimates are static and do not assume that taxpayers would adjust their investment portfolio and pay down their mortgage balance if their tax benefit from mortgage interest was reduced. For a description of TPC’s current law baseline, see http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxtopics/Baseline-Definitions.cfm

(2) Includes both filing and non-filing units but excludes those that are dependents of other tax units. Tax units with negative adjusted gross income are excluded from their respective income class but are included in the totals. For a description of expanded cash income, see http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/TaxModel/income.cfm

(3) The income percentile classes used in this table are based on the income distribution for the entire population and contain an equal number of people, not tax units. The incomes used are adjusted for family size by dividing by the square root of the number of people in the tax unit. The resulting percentile breaks are (in 2015 dollars): 20% $15,856; 40% $29,550; 60% $51,312; 80% $85,800; 90% $124,732; 95%

$174,098; 99% $413,202; 99.9% $2,095,408.

(4) Includes tax units with a change in federal tax burden of $10 or more in absolute value.

(5) After-tax income is expanded cash income less: individual income tax net of refundable credits; corporate income tax; payroll taxes (Social Security and Medicare); estate tax; and excise taxes.

(6) Average federal tax (includes individual and corporate income tax, payroll taxes for Social Security and Medicare, the estate tax, and excise taxes) as a percentage of average expanded cash income.

14-Dec-15 PRELIMINARY RESULTS

Table T15-0226

Option 3: Replace the Mortgage Interest Deduction with a 15 Percent Non-refundable Credit

Baseline: Current Law

Distribution of Federal Tax Change by Expanded Cash Income Percentile Adjusted for Family Size, 2016 ¹

Detail Table - Tax Units with Children

Expanded Cash Income

Percentile

2,3

Lowest Quintile

Second Quintile

Middle Quintile

Fourth Quintile

Top Quintile

All

Addendum

80-90

90-95

95-99

Top 1 Percent

Top 0.1 Percent

Percent of Tax Units

4

With Tax Cut

With Tax

Increase

*

4.2

30.1

40.8

11.8

17.2

0.1

4.3

5.7

22.8

72.3

20.0

18.3

6.6

3.3

6.4

11.0

64.8

78.0

84.6

70.1

50.0

Percent Change in After-Tax

Income

5

Share of Total

Federal Tax

Change

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.1

-0.5

-0.2

0.0

0.4

-10.1

-4.3

114.0

100.0

-0.4

-0.7

-0.8

-0.2

0.0

26.3

28.6

43.3

15.9

1.3

Average Federal Tax Change

Dollars Percent

-117

-51

0

4

1,427

233

652

1,471

2,699

3,857

3,145

0.0

0.2

-1.3

-0.2

1.4

0.9

1.6

2.3

2.2

0.5

0.1

Share of Federal Taxes

Change (%

Points)

Under the

Proposal

0.0

0.0

-0.2

-0.2

0.4

0.0

-1.3

1.4

7.1

16.7

76.0

100.0

0.1

0.2

0.2

-0.1

-0.1

14.9

11.4

18.5

31.2

14.2

http://www.taxpolicycenter.org

Average Federal Tax Rate

6

Change (%

Points)

Under the

Proposal

0.0

0.0

-0.2

0.0

0.4

0.2

-8.8

4.3

12.3

17.2

27.1

20.8

0.3

0.5

0.6

0.2

0.0

20.8

23.2

26.9

34.2

35.3

Baseline Distribution of Income and Federal Taxes by Expanded Cash Income Percentile Adjusted for Family Size, 2016 ¹

Expanded Cash Income

Percentile

2,3

Tax Units

Number

(thousands)

Percent of

Total

Pre-Tax Income

Average (dollars)

Percent of

Total

Federal Tax Burden

Average (dollars)

Percent of

Total

After-Tax Income

5

Average (dollars)

Percent of

Total

Average

Federal Tax

Rate

6

Lowest Quintile

Second Quintile

Middle Quintile

Fourth Quintile

Top Quintile

All

Addendum

80-90

90-95

95-99

Top 1 Percent

Top 0.1 Percent

10,234

10,415

10,074

9,897

9,368

50,272

4,730

2,275

1,882

482

47

20.4

20.7

20.0

19.7

18.6

100.0

9.4

4.5

3.7

1.0

0.1

18,852

40,647

74,066

126,678

388,066

123,886

195,763

280,240

473,252

2,453,236

11,186,185

3.1

6.8

12.0

20.1

58.4

100.0

14.9

10.2

14.3

19.0

8.4

-1,667

1,733

9,191

21,860

103,661

25,527

40,041

63,617

124,816

834,989

3,940,058

-1.3

1.4

7.2

16.9

75.7

100.0

14.8

11.3

18.3

31.3

14.3

20,519

38,914

64,875

104,819

284,405

98,359

155,722

216,623

348,436

1,618,247

7,246,127

4.3

8.2

13.2

21.0

53.9

100.0

14.9

10.0

13.3

15.8

6.8

-8.8

4.3

12.4

17.3

26.7

20.6

20.5

22.7

26.4

34.0

35.2

Source: Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center Microsimulation Model (version 0515-3).

* Less than 0.05

Note: Tax units with children are those claiming an exemption for children at home or away from home.

(1) Calendar year. Baseline is current law. Proposal would replace the deduction for mortgage interest with a 15 percent non-refundable credit subject to current law limits

($1,000,000 of debt on a primary residence or second home, and $100,000 in home equity loans). Estimates are static and do not assume that taxpayers would adjust their investment portfolio and pay down their mortgage balance if their tax benefit from mortgage interest was reduced. For a description of TPC’s current law baseline, see http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxtopics/Baseline-Definitions.cfm

(2) Includes both filing and non-filing units but excludes those that are dependents of other tax units. Tax units with negative adjusted gross income are excluded from their respective income class but are included in the totals. For a description of expanded cash income, see http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/TaxModel/income.cfm

(3) The income percentile classes used in this table are based on the income distribution for the entire population and contain an equal number of people, not tax units. The incomes used are adjusted for family size by dividing by the square root of the number of people in the tax unit. The resulting percentile breaks are (in 2015 dollars): 20% $15,856; 40% $29,550; 60% $51,312; 80% $85,800; 90% $124,732; 95%

$174,098; 99% $413,202; 99.9% $2,095,408.

(4) Includes tax units with a change in federal tax burden of $10 or more in absolute value.

(5) After-tax income is expanded cash income less: individual income tax net of refundable credits; corporate income tax; payroll taxes (Social Security and Medicare); estate tax; and excise taxes.

(6) Average federal tax (includes individual and corporate income tax, payroll taxes for Social Security and Medicare, the estate tax, and excise taxes) as a percentage of average expanded cash income.

14-Dec-15 PRELIMINARY RESULTS

Table T15-0226

Option 3: Replace the Mortgage Interest Deduction with a 15 Percent Non-refundable Credit

Baseline: Current Law

Distribution of Federal Tax Change by Expanded Cash Income Percentile Adjusted for Family Size, 2016 ¹

Detail Table - Elderly Tax Units

Expanded Cash Income

Percentile

2,3

Lowest Quintile

Second Quintile

Middle Quintile

Fourth Quintile

Top Quintile

All

Addendum

80-90

90-95

95-99

Top 1 Percent

Top 0.1 Percent

Percent of Tax Units

4

With Tax Cut

With Tax

Increase

0.5

2.6

20.3

40.7

20.8

15.9

0.0

0.1

0.1

3.9

29.1

5.2

29.1

16.4

6.6

4.0

8.4

19.0

32.7

48.0

51.8

35.6

Percent Change in After-Tax

Income

5

Share of Total

Federal Tax

Change

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.2

-0.2

0.0

-1.0

-17.3

-133.9

-207.9

460.1

100.0

0.0

-0.1

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

5.8

76.8

224.1

153.5

16.7

Average Federal Tax Change

Dollars Percent

-1

-7

-61

-120

316

10

8

215

883

2,019

1,666

-0.3

-1.1

-2.1

-1.2

0.4

0.1

0.0

0.6

1.1

0.3

0.1

Share of Federal Taxes

Change (%

Points)

Under the

Proposal

0.0

0.0

-0.1

-0.2

0.3

0.0

0.2

1.2

4.8

13.0

80.3

100.0

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.0

13.2

10.7

15.4

41.0

22.6

http://www.taxpolicycenter.org

Average Federal Tax Rate

6

Change (%

Points)

Under the

Proposal

0.0

0.0

-0.1

-0.1

0.1

0.0

1.7

2.6

5.9

11.7

26.0

17.8

0.0

0.1

0.3

0.1

0.0

17.1

20.4

24.6

34.9

36.5

Baseline Distribution of Income and Federal Taxes by Expanded Cash Income Percentile Adjusted for Family Size, 2016 ¹

Expanded Cash Income

Percentile

2,3

Tax Units

Number

(thousands)

Percent of

Total

Pre-Tax Income

Average (dollars)

Percent of

Total

Federal Tax Burden

Average (dollars)

Percent of

Total

After-Tax Income

5

Average (dollars)

Percent of

Total

Average

Federal Tax

Rate

6

Lowest Quintile

Second Quintile

Middle Quintile

Fourth Quintile

Top Quintile

All

Addendum

80-90

90-95

95-99

Top 1 Percent

Top 0.1 Percent

6,761

10,923

9,410

7,396

6,233

41,164

3,290

1,531

1,087

325

43

16.4

26.5

22.9

18.0

15.1

100.0

8.0

3.7

2.6

0.8

0.1

11,850

24,835

47,748

83,981

277,400

76,347

130,820

191,752

321,464

2,015,265

8,080,211

2.6

8.6

14.3

19.8

55.0

100.0

13.7

9.3

11.1

20.9

11.0

197

642

2,885

9,948

71,666

13,565

22,416

38,813

78,335

701,931

2,947,959

0.2

1.3

4.9

13.2

80.0

100.0

13.2

10.6

15.2

40.9

22.6

11,652

24,194

44,863

74,033

205,734

62,782

108,404

152,939

243,130

1,313,334

5,132,252

3.1

10.2

16.3

21.2

49.6

100.0

13.8

9.1

10.2

16.5

8.5

1.7

2.6

6.0

11.9

25.8

17.8

17.1

20.2

24.4

34.8

36.5

Source: Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center Microsimulation Model (version 0515-3).

* Less than 0.05

Note: Elderly tax units are those with either head or spouse (if filing jointly) age 65 or older.

(1) Calendar year. Baseline is current law. Proposal would replace the deduction for mortgage interest with a 15 percent non-refundable credit subject to current law limits

($1,000,000 of debt on a primary residence or second home, and $100,000 in home equity loans). Estimates are static and do not assume that taxpayers would adjust their investment portfolio and pay down their mortgage balance if their tax benefit from mortgage interest was reduced. For a description of TPC’s current law baseline, see http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxtopics/Baseline-Definitions.cfm

(2) Includes both filing and non-filing units but excludes those that are dependents of other tax units. Tax units with negative adjusted gross income are excluded from their respective income class but are included in the totals. For a description of expanded cash income, see http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/TaxModel/income.cfm

(3) The income percentile classes used in this table are based on the income distribution for the entire population and contain an equal number of people, not tax units. The incomes used are adjusted for family size by dividing by the square root of the number of people in the tax unit. The resulting percentile breaks are (in 2015 dollars): 20% $15,856; 40% $29,550; 60% $51,312; 80% $85,800; 90% $124,732; 95%

$174,098; 99% $413,202; 99.9% $2,095,408.

(4) Includes tax units with a change in federal tax burden of $10 or more in absolute value.

(5) After-tax income is expanded cash income less: individual income tax net of refundable credits; corporate income tax; payroll taxes (Social Security and Medicare); estate tax; and excise taxes.

(6) Average federal tax (includes individual and corporate income tax, payroll taxes for Social Security and Medicare, the estate tax, and excise taxes) as a percentage of average expanded cash income.

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