David Nyaluke and Michael Seifu1 Global political economy and the developmental state in Africa I. Introduction In no other episode in global history had the question of African development (or absence of) has attracted so much academic and policy interest as it has done since the end of the bipolar system of world politics. Apart from the voluminous and largely diagnostic as well as prescriptive studies on the political economy woes of African countries, several practical initiatives have been launched with the objective of poverty reduction at the forefront. The United Nations Millennium Development Goals; the heavily indebted poor country initiative; Make Poverty History campaign are just to name a few. Equally true is the observation that scholars are by and large at odds when it comes to establishing as to why African performance on both economic and political counts has on average been lacklustre over the past several decades. That Africa’s disproportional share in terms of poorly governed states and underdeveloped economies coupled with anecdotal cases of failed policies induced several researchers to look for exceptionally ‘African’ factors that supposedly define the region as an outlier to conventional scientific theories. Under the technocratic banner of the ‘African dummy,’ it effortlessly sought to provide a chronic dimension to underdevelopment in the region by asserting that the Region’s socio-cultural factors are inimical to economic prosperity and liberal democracy. One prevalent notion that quite fits this latter model can be described as the impossibility theorem of the developmental state in Africa. Accordingly, Africa, which has already been classified as non-befitting to the neoclassical model of political and economy development, is now considered structurally and terminally incapable of hosting developmental states. Essentially, the developmental states concept has mostly been used as a reference to the experiences of the East Asian countries that achieved state-engineered drastic changes to the welfare of their people. Its major flag posts as represented by elements of autocratic rule and a hands-on policy of government in the economy has come in a direct collusion course to the then dominant laissez faire paradigm of development. In this study, we set out to achieve a 1 Dublin City University 1 couple of objectives. Firstly, we highlight the shortcomings of prevalent literature on the subject that understates the presence of developmental states in Africa. It, in particular, underscores the narrow scope in which the concept of developmental states has been applied. Secondly, we elaborate on how dominant modes of international relations have adversely affected the evolution of statehood in post-independence Africa. The paper is organised as follows. Section II provides a synopsis of the political economy of development of post-independence Africa with emphasis on variations among the countries. In the next section, we take a critical look into the way the concept of developmental states has been defined and put into effect to explain developmental trajectories of countries. Sections IV, V and VI discuss specific situations that falsify the hypothesis that the notion of developmental states is impractical in Africa as well as the evolution of statehood fell prey to non conducive modus operandi of international relations. Section VII concludes. II. The political economy of post-independence Africa: Beyond averages The bulk of otherwise diverse research on politics and economics of African countries can nonetheless be defined by two common characteristics; i.e. their being decidedly negative and making sweeping generalisations. One can not be sarcastic to state that researchers were more at pains to coin adjectives that not only describe the ‘hopelessness’ of the case for development in Africa but also assigning causality for the ‘Africanness’ variable. As such the modern versions of Montesquieu’s (1748) The Spirit of Laws are not hard to come by, however a sophisticated form they take. In this regard, the African state has been handed the most severe onslaught in that it is considered so illegitimate as to be the cause and effect of economic underdevelopment and political instability. Dunn (2001) provides a succinct account of terms widely used to describe the state in Africa. These include ‘failed,’ ‘lame,’ ‘fictive,’ ‘weak,’ ‘collapsing,’ ‘quasi,’ ‘invented,’ ‘imposed,’ ‘shadow,’ ‘overdeveloped,’ ‘centralised,’ ‘swollen,’ ‘soft,’ ‘extractive,’ ‘parasitic,’ and ‘premodern.’ Needless to say that such states by their very nature are unable to provide the political goods that bring about economic development. We set aside the question of the ‘developmental’ characteristics of states in Africa for subsequent sections while focussing here on the diverge features of African politics and economics in the post-independence period. In lieu of the fact that the concept of 2 development is a multidimensional one, we focus here on economic growth for expositional purposes. At the onset of political independence ushered in by that of Ghana in l957, African governments inherited a colonial legacy of very low levels of economic development both in absolute terms as well as when compared with that of other countries. For instance, eight of the nine bottom ten percent countries in terms of real GDP per capita in 1960 were African countries with the corresponding figures as low as two-thirds of other low income countries. The stark difference in income levels between African and other economies does not show any marked change when we extend the income bracket in that, for the same year, African countries comprised in about 68 percent of the group of countries in the lowest quintile of the income ladder. As indicated in table below, African countries lagged well behind other countries in terms of almost all factors conventionally considered to be of essence to economic growth. Table 1 Economic indicators for selected countries (1960) Country Primary school Secondary Enrolment (%) school Enrolment (%) Bolivia 64 12 Botswana 42 1 Chile 109 24 Ethiopia 9 NA Ghana 8 5 Nigeria 36 4 Tanzania 25 2 Thailand 83 13 NB. NA refers to data unavailable. Gross domestic savings (% of GDP) NA -7.35 15.16 NA 17.13 3.48 NA 14.07 Real GDP per capita (USD) 2353.85 958 3852.93 526.75 866.25 1032.71 381.53 1091.11 Source: World development indicators In contrast to the views of the prevalent literature that lumps African economic performance in to single average values, empirical evidence suggests that countries in the region followed varied political and economic trajectories. For instance, if we categorise cross country data of real GDP per capita based on constant prices and chain series from the PENN World Tables African countries consist of about 90 percent of the most bottom decile at the year 2000. Additionally, as shown in figure below, although there existed a significant spread in average levels of income among African countries the general trend is skewed to the left. Such curvature accounts for 3 the rather abysmal economic performance of a large number of countries in the past five decades. We group countries in quartiles for a more in-depth investigation of the pattern of long-run cross country economic performance in the region. The variable of interest here is the ratio by which a given country’s average income changed over the past fifty years. 0 Y_Current/Y_Initial 5000 10000 15000 Fig 5.1. A range spike for African Economies 0 2 4 Ratio 6 8 Source: Author’s calculation The general pattern of the spread in real GDP per capita can be characterised along three major points. Firstly, the concentration of data points gets sparse as one moves towards higher ratio values. In other words, the lion’s share of countries in the continent experienced a serious contraction in their economies or at best registered growth rates that decidedly failed to outpace growth in the size of their population. Secondly, there exists sizeable variations in the length of the spikes which captures corresponding imbalances in growth rates achieved among the countries. Parallel with countries that have gone through significant economic stagnation, a number of other countries managed to at least triple their average incomes between the years 1960 and 2000. Thirdly, there were wide variations in terms of levels of initial income among the countries in question. A few countries were within the middle income echelon as early as 1960 while others began their economic developments at extremely low 4 levels of average income. In studies of economic growth, the question of how such initial disparities in income levels among countries evolved over time is a matter of paramount concern both theoretically and empirically. Bottom quartile: This group consists of countries whose average levels of income has shrank quite significantly during the period under consideration. Measured in terms of real GDP per capita, the range within this group of regressing economies is also very noticeable in that in the worst case the average level of income for a citizen of the Congo (Kinshasa) is only a quarter of what it was about five decades ago while that for the within-group better performer, i.e. Comoros, the corresponding figure is about eighty percent. The composition of the nine countries in this category includes resource rich economies such as Nigeria and Congo (Kinshasa) as well as research poor ones as in the case of Madagascar and Mozambique. Interestingly, this grouping comprises countries which were initially relatively poorer and failed to make inroads in the catch-up game of growth dynamics but more importantly it also hosted some that were in the better-off category with regard to initial income, notably Comoros and Mozambique. Note also the fact that with the exception of Zambia and to a lesser degree Madagascar, the other countries in this group have experienced prolonged and often violent forms of political violence. It is also worth noting that the point of analysis here is the achievement (or lack of) for a given country over the long-term and not current income status. Second quartile: A characteristic feature of countries in this group is that over the past half century their economies remained on either edge of slightly below or above their initial levels of average income. The range of real GDP per capita for this group falls in between 89 percent below the initial level of income for Senegal and about 20 percent more than initial level of income for Ethiopia. These countries can best be described 5 as stagnating economies in that in a period where global output expanded exponentially their economic performance remained largely lacklustre. Save their relatively better performance as compared to the previous group that slide back in economic welfare, the countries in this category share a number of features of countries in the bottom quartile. Their postindependence political reality was defined by relatively stable autocracies as in the case of Cote d’Ivoire, Senegal and Togo. Political instability, both in its elitist and broad forms, has ultimately affected the economic performance of these countries. For instance, Hartmann (1999) reports that only between the period 1960 and 1972 Benin has gone through ten changes in heads of state whereby six of the turnovers in chief executives were caused by military takeovers. Third quartile: The income distribution pattern for this group of countries tends to be closer to the previous group thereby providing further evidence that overall income distribution is skewed to the left. Nevertheless, the intra-group distribution in average levels of income is relatively more concentrated between the 21 percent and 61 percent above initial income levels for Cameroon and Guinea Bissau respectively. It also includes South Africa which maintained its higher income status of the initial years while at the same time did not experience significant expansion. Additionally, we observe that the relatively higher ratio in terms of growth in real GDP per capita registered by Guinea Bissau is not that extensive when one considers the very low initial level of average income for this country. Other countries included in this category of countries that added twenty-five percent or more value to their economic status over the long-term include Burkina Faso, Gambia, Ghana, Kenya, Mauritania, Namibia and Tanzania. With regard to political institutions, a similar pattern exists to the one mentioned for the previous group with the exception of 6 the particular case of South Africa and Namibia. The overall performance of this group is somewhat better than both the first two quartiles. Top quartile: Apart from the case of Malawi, all countries in this category have managed to at least double the size of their economies over the five decades under scrutiny. It also includes the two star performers in Africa both economically and in relation to being long surviving democracies. However, research on African political economy by and large overlooks an important factor that has important implications to the study of economy growth. While both Mauritius and Botswana recorded significant leaps in economic growth, the respective values for each being four-fold and eight-fold, there existed clear dichotomies vis-à-vis initial levels of income between the two countries. More specifically, while during the early years Mauritius had a middle income status Botswana started from a very low level of development. As such, economic growth in Botswana converged not only in its conditional variant to other African economies but also to economies outside Africa as well. Whether their economic achievements have partially been matched by other better governed countries in a way that allows one to deduce causality is an issue we leave for the quantitative analysis section. This group of countries also includes Cape Verde, Gabon, Congo (Brazzaville), Seychelles, Lesotho and Zimbabwe. On balance, political instability has been a major feature of the political map in Africa since independence in which forty percent of the countries had gone through at least one period of civil war before the end of the last century. Compared with other regions, Africa have had a larger share of civil conflicts so much so that in one study, of the twenty seven countries sampled for investigating economic causes of civil wars twelve were from Africa (Collier and Hoeffler 1998). However, as in the case discussed above for economic growth, such region-level figures mask the high degree of variation in economic performance and political stability across countries in this 7 part of the developing world. As such, it is imperative to hypothesise that observed spread in types of political institutions among countries demarcate the line between the better and poor performers in economic growth. While a detailed profile of such differences in political institutions is beyond the scope of this study, we handpick one important variable in the political institution vector for expositional purposes. Accordingly, most African countries have adopted electoral modes of political governance particularly since the early 1990s. Notwithstanding the fact that in not few instances such moves only reflected rational responses to a changing global political environment, the experiences of countries in practicing this dimension of democracy differed significantly. Bratton (1998) documents that between 1990 and 1994 there were 54 elections that covered more than half of sub-Sahara African countries where by the end of the decade only four countries had not conducted any national elections. He also notes some differences between countries in that countries that undertook founding elections late tended to have poorer elections quality-wise. We observe that in two dimensions of electoral rules that shape economic policy, namely district size and electoral formula, the African political landscape is quite diverse. For instance, for countries in the region the mean district size for the lower house disperses as wide as seventy two for Namibia, thirty six for Senegal and three for Mauritius in 2000. Variations between countries also exist in terms of electoral rules wherein, for example, Benin (arguably the only country to avoid big reversals from recent batch of reformers) applies a proportional representation system to elect its legislature as in the case for Mozambique (an emerging post-conflict democracy) while Zambia and Togo use the plurality rule. III. The concept of developmental state It is fairly accurate to state that the concept of developmental states emerged as a reaction to the inadequacy of neoclassical and structural models in explaining economic development that has occurred in East Asia since the latter part of the 1950s. The role of the state in the economy represented the major bone of contention for the two dominant paradigms in that the former vehemently opposed the state’s involvement in the economy beyond that of a ‘night watchman’ while proponents of the latter were by far in favour of a very extensive state role. Accordingly, neither model was able to explain why extremely activist states in East Asian countries 8 followed a conventionally market-unfriendly policies to achieve rapid economic growth. To put it more bluntly, the economic policies followed by these countries had more dirigiste elements than that neoclassical scholars reluctantly agree to admit. In his book ‘MITI and the Japanese Miracle (1982), Chalmers Johnson (widely credited to have coined the term ‘developmental states’) makes a trichotomy of states in terms of regulatory, plan-ideological and the likes of Japan deemed plan-rational. However, the jury is still out as to why, regardless of the democratic score of the polity in question, states in some countries predate while in others enhance productive transactions among citizens. It is also worth noting that within the broad spectrum of export-oriented market economy of what are widely considered ‘developmental’ states, there exists a sizeable variation when it comes to specific modalities of politico-economic management. While the descriptions given to these states stretch to a long-list, we follow Mkandawire (2001) to breakdown the attributes of developmental states into two broad categories: Ideological: accordingly, an important issue of critical importance relates to the degree to which a developmental ideology has the upper hand in social relations. Not only is the state expected to make its mission one of rapid capital accumulation and maximisation of national wealth but equally true is its ability in deriving legitimacy from promoting sustained development that in turn shapes its domestic and international relations. Note that the primacy of the objective of structural change and robust economic growth is not confined solely to the government in power but should have got universal acceptance among all the major political players in the country. Structural: apparently, ideological hegemony of development is not a sufficient condition to bring about enhanced economic development. As such, it is of utmost importance that the state has the structural capacity in terms of institutional, technical, administrative and 9 political prerequisites to put into effect its developmental agenda. In as much as the state should not be captured by social interest groups at the expense of the long term interests of the polity it is also vital to ensure that it does not use its autonomy/power to extract rents from economic agents. IV. Can African states be developmental? As mentioned above, this question is answered in the negative for a majority of studies on African politics and economics. The neopatrimonial model widely used to describe government-society relationships in Africa strongly upholds the view that countries in the region lack the ideological and structural prerequisites that brings about development in all its dimensions. Its assertions can, however, be refuted along the following lines. IV.1. The fallacy of state illegitimacy: International Relations theory explains that the modern state system was born out of the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648 that ended the Thirty Years War in Europe. Subsequent events that created political and economic integration such as the industrial revolution are considered to have determined a state’s legitimate claim over a geographically delineated territory. Nevertheless, this dominant paradigm is incapable of accounting for different trajectories of state building in Africa. The premise that African states lack legitimacy as a consequence of their being objet d’art of colonial powers fails to accurately reflect both pre and post independence state building in Africa. Before citing a number of cases on the different approaches to state building in Africa, it is worth noting the fact that not only did most of the developmental states in East Asia not fit into the European model of state formation but also one needs to stress the point that countries such as Belgium and Switzerland have also a different trajectory. IV.2. The fallacy of socio-cultural diversity as being inimical to development: Here, the dominant paradigm postulates that African countries are primarily made up of heterogeneous ethnic groups which in turn inhibits their drive towards adopting democratic forms of governance and economic development. Nevertheless, the theoretical and empirical foundation of such propositions is rather weak. In this respect, the experiences of the two very successful polities in the region speak 10 volumes. On the ethnic diversity score, Botswana is comparably less diverse as compared to Mauritius. Should the theory of ethnic diversity have its way, the political economy attributes of these countries would have diverged so much. The case is, however, cannot be more otherwise as both managed to establish wellgoverned states with vibrant economies. Anecdotal cases that show the weak link between ethnic diversity and observed political economy problems in Africa are many. Suffice it to mention that contrary to popular belief, political instability in Africa has largely not been due to ethnic and religious diversity (Elbadawi and Sambanis 2000). In fact, diversity is a blessing as it encourages bargaining and, hence, the formation of stable relationships among groups. V. Patterns of state building in Africa A thorough accounting of the evolution of states in Africa is beyond the scope of this article. As such, we only pinpoint certain significant features of the state building process in Africa. An oft-mentioned statement regarding states in Africa is that they are by and large artefacts of colonialism. While there exists some grain of truth in the assertion, it at the same time understates the adverse effects of colonialism on state building in Africa. Long before colonisation and particularly before the enactment of the General Act of the Berlin Conference, there used to exist several states in the continent with clear administrative set-ups. Some of these include the Ashanti, Samori, Yoruba, Endebele, Tswana, Zulu and Merina. The process of consolidation towards further integration of societies was stifled by colonialism. Needless to say that the question of statehood in post-independence Africa had to emerge out of the not-too-conducive situation imposed by colonialism. It was about building the state as a set of organisations, including the administrative and legislative order, with the authority to make and implement binding rules over all people and all action in a particular territory, using force if necessary (Migdal,1988:19, Rueschemeyer and Evans 1985:46-47,Weber,1964:156) as pointed by Kim, 1993:229), but also more difficult a task of succeeding to establish and disseminate an ideology which succeeds to create one nation of what Anderson, (1985) called ‘imaged communities’ out of disparate ethnic groupings cobbled together by colonialists. 11 For most states which succeeded to maintain peaceful co-existence among the people within the states which colonialist left- the challenge they had, given the legacies of colonial rule was first of all to create, political, economic and social conditions which will enhance, and maintain social unity and cohesion among the various ethnicities within the state let alone achieving a modicum of development. As we noted, for colonialist development and state administration meant only instrumentally developing areas which were economic potentially and leaving economically non productive areas un-connected to economic viable areas, basically letting them to fend for themselves. The challenge of new African leaders and people was to correct this anomaly and provide compensating packages first of all and then balancing equitably development in their states. This included not only the task of building hospitals, schools, road, and communications networks but also extending the state public administration institutions in all parts of the countries from the national level to the village. We ascertain here the states which actually its leaders concentrated whatever little economic resource for building schools, hospitals, roads and other important things for the life and development of their states such as the communication network as well state public administration infrastructure have to be appreciated as developmental. For as Evans (1989) define developmental state these leaders did not simply siphon surplus of the economy for their cronies and personal accounts but did diligently invest in it in creating conditions for sustainable development. The fact that they did not rise to stardom like East Asian states is largely explained by various challenges and sometime genuine but ill-informed strategies that they adopted. The table below highlights basic challenges states like Tanzania faced while at the same time maintaining factors which sustain nation and elite unity and being an active participant in regional movements particularly for independence of all African countries. 12 The case of Tanzania: Development Challenges Item At independence Hospitals 98 Rural Health Centres 22 Rural Dispensaries 975 Citizen Doctors 44 Medical Assistants 200 Rural Medical aids 380 Villages 809 Secondary school teachers 764 Per capita –education 14 spending in local currency Source: Kilama, W et al.(1974) and Kaduma, L.M(1974) 10 years after 128 100 1,594 335 355 578 5556 1,706 25.45 Other stack initial realities at independence of Tanzania according to Msekwa and Malyamkono(1979:24-25) were: 1. Only 14 percent of jobs requiring undergraduate and graduate education were held by Africans. This more than 70 percent of graduates had to be found to fill the jobs occupied by non-Africans after independence. 2. Given a population of 10 million there was no African architects, no mechanical engineers and no African geologists. Even then the numbers of non-African professionals was helplessly small; 11 architects, 84 civil engineers, 52 Mechanical engineers, 94 surveyors 57 lawyers, 45 veterinarians, 41 geologists, 12 zoologists. Since most of them had to leave after independence the government had to work out replacements. VI. Africa and the international political economy It is apparent that globalisation is not only about opportunities it creates in terms of trade, capital flows or societal interactions. Equally true are the challenges it imposes on states to effectively manage their own development in a very dynamic world. The long-term sustainability of this phenomenon rests on the fairness of the rules and practices that govern international relations. It is, therefore, imperative to investigate the implications to African states of those systems and rules of international relations. More specifically, we cite a number of factors that support our propositions that African endeavour to build developmental states has always been frustrated by the modus operandi of the global political economy. 13 One important variable that has long shaped African relations with the global system is foreign aid. While the micro level benefits of foreign aid are not difficult to discern, one can not derive same optimistic observations with regard to effects on establishing effective states in the region. For instance, most African countries delegated macroeconomic policy making prerogatives to the IMF and the World Bank through structural adjustment programmes. These coupled with a string of conditionality attached had resulted to supplant (and not supplement) domestic technocratic capacity with that of these institutions. Neither the hypothesised credible policy regime nor a robust economic growth has materialised. Similarly, the growing dependence of African countries on foreign aid eroded political accountability on the part of governments in the region. It is no wonder that many African governments are much responsive to donors than their own domestic constituencies to the extent that even democratic reforms have much foreign element in it. A related observation is that foreign aid might have contributed to making states more fragile by providing a false pretence of viability for groups to secede. International trade, and more broadly the flow of economic resources, is another dimension that adversely affected African performance. Firstly, the most prevalent model of international trade relations is bilateralism. This has the effect of narrowing access to international markets for African countries. Secondly, progress on those trade items that have much resonance to African economies is minimal. Western countries continue to protect their agricultural sector from international competition through producer subsidies and other administrative obstacles. Thirdly, the question of free mobility of economic resources vehemently advocated by the international community is largely indifferent when it comes to those resources in which African economies enjoy a comparative advantage. A case in point is the severe restriction imposed on access to western markets by unskilled labour from Africa. In recent times, the war on terror has altered the way state business is being handled in Africa. As fragile and failed states are considered easy preys for terrorist groups, the international community has taken more active interest in domestic governance of states. Nevertheless, the specific strategies taken may not be compatible with local efforts to build developmental states. To start 14 with, developmental agenda as a rationale to aid takes back stage as the allocative decisions are driven more by strategic political considerations than actual needs. Additionally, in-not-few-instances the anti-terror card has been opportunistically played by governments to repress calls for domestic political reform. Similarly, it is déjà vu cold war politics in the sense that in this case countries vie for fitting into the neo-liberal model of addressing the problems of terrorism. VII. Concluding remarks The overarching purpose of this study is to provide some thought-provoking insights into the viability of the developmental state model in Africa. We took a departure from the prevalent literature that outright dismisses the possibility of Africa in hosting such states. The arguments put forward to falsify the impossibility thesis are quite handful. It is showed that African political economy is a very diverse reality that applying individual case studies or a region-level average is a less informative approach. In so far as there existed countries that went political upheavals and, consequently, lacklustre economic performance there also were cases of success stories, albeit the distributional pattern is skewed to the left. It is also the case a better understanding of the developmental character of states in Africa should take account of the state itself is an endogenous variable. The experience of Tanzania attests to the importance of putting in place the state machinery as part and parcel of the developmental process. We also identified a string of features in rules that govern international relations that ultimately harmed African countries’ efforts towards building strong developmental states. 15 References Anderson, B(1985) Imagined Communities: Reflections on the Origin and Spread of Nationalism, London, Verso Bratton, M. 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