2015 Winter Forum
Weather Overview and Forecast
September 24, 2015
Jeff Jensen
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Bachelor of Science | Meteorology | Iowa State University | 1984
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Broadcast Meteorologist | Alabama, Kentucky, Iowa and Nebraska
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Customer Service Representative | Omaha, Nebraska | 2008 present
2
Welcome to Milwaukee
Bob Uecker
3
The Seasons
Fall:
September – October – November
Winter:
December – January – February
Spring:
March – April – May
4
Review of Jeff’s
2014 – 2015 Forecast
5
Last Fall’s Forecast
September – October – November
2014
2014
2014
TEMPERATURE
PRECIPITATION
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7
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November 17, 2014
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November 17, 2014
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November 18, 2014
Coldest November morning since 1976
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November 18, 2014
Lake-effect snows around the Buffalo, NewYork area
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November 18, 2014
Lake-effect snows around the Buffalo, NewYork area
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November 18, 2014
Lake-effect snows around the Buffalo, NewYork area
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November 18, 2014
Lake-effect snows around the Buffalo, NewYork area
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November 18, 2014
Lake-effect snows around the Buffalo, NewYork area
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Last Fall’s Forecast
September – October – November
2014
2014
2014
TEMPERATURE
PRECIPITATION
18
Actual Fall Departures
September – October – November
2014
2014
2014
TEMPERATURE
PRECIPITATION
19
Last Winter’s Forecast
December – January – February
2014
2015
2015
TEMPERATURE
PRECIPITATION
20
December 1, 2014
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January 1, 2015
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Early January cold spell
January 5 – 7, 2015
Market Area peak delivery days
#1
5.141 Bcf/day
January 6, 2014
#2
5.097 Bcf/day
January 7, 2015
#3
4.967 Bcf/day
January 5, 2015
25
January 11, 2015
Not as much ice coverage as last year at this time.
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New England Blizzard
Forecast on January 25, 2015
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New England Blizzard
SnowTotals on January 28, 2015
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29
30
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February 1, 2015
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February Changes
East of the Rockies gets colder and snowy
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March 1, 2015
35
Last Winter’s Forecast
December – January – February
2014
2015
2015
TEMPERATURE
PRECIPITATION
36
Actual Winter Departures
December – January – February
2014
2015
2015
TEMPERATURE
PRECIPITATION
37
Last Spring’s Forecast
March – April – May
2015 2015 2015
TEMPERATURE
PRECIPITATION
38
March 1, 2015
39
March 6, 2015
40
March 4-5, 2015
Lexington’s 2 day snow total = 17.1”
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A Taste of Summer in Nebraska
March 16, 2015
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2013 – 2014 Heating Season Results
Northern’s Market Area temperatures
were 24% colder than normal
during the 2013 – 2014 heating season.
( Nov. 1 to March 31 )
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2014 – 2015 Heating Season Results
Northern’s Market Area temperatures
were 9% colder than normal during the
2014 – 2015 heating season.
( Nov. 1 to March 31 )
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All Time Market Area Record Cold
From the 2013-2014 Heating Season
January 6, 2014
5.141 Bcf delivered
Northern Natural Gas peak Market Area delivery records
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More Market Area Record Cold
During the 2014-2015 Heating Season
November 17, 2014
4.212 Bcf delivered
Northern’s peak November Market Area daily delivery record
December 30, 2014
4.808 Bcf delivered
Northern’s peak December Market Area daily delivery record
February 18, 2015
4.891 Bcf delivered
Northern’s peak February Market Area daily delivery record
March 4, 2015
4.477 Bcf delivered
Northern’s peak March Market Area daily delivery record
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April 1, 2015
48
Another drier than normal winter!
Omaha’s ‘Normal’
Seasonal Snowfall
27.1”
2014 – 2015 Snowfall
13.8” (-13.3”)
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Another drier than normal winter!
Minneapolis’ ‘Normal’
Seasonal Snowfall
45.3”
2014 – 2015 Snowfall
32.4” (-12.9”)
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Another drier than normal winter!
Milwaukee’s‘Normal’
Seasonal Snowfall
52.4”
2014 – 2015 Snowfall
43.0” (-9.4”)
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Winter of 2013-2014
40.5”
131.0”
Bismarck
Duluth
69.8”
Minneapolis
45.3”
Sioux Falls
17.8”
48.3”
Des Moines
72.1”
Green Bay
82.0”
94.9”
Detroit
Chicago
55.7”
Omaha
Indianapolis
28.8”
26.1”
Kansas City
St. Louis
52
27.1”
Lexington
Not as much snow in 2014-2015!
23.7”
48.1”
Bismarck
Duluth
32.1”
Minneapolis
31.9”
Sioux Falls
13.8”
29.1”
Des Moines
32.7”
Green Bay
50.7”
47.5”
Detroit
Chicago
25.6”
Omaha
Indianapolis
16.8”
14.2”
Kansas City
St. Louis
53
40.0”
Lexington
Last Winter’s Temperature Departures
November 2014 – March 2015
Minneapolis
Des Moines -7.0
-4.2
Chicago Cleveland
-5.0
-6.4
Denver
Kansas City
-0.5
-4.7
Oklahoma City
-3.3
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Omaha
May 6, 1975
AKSARBEN Racetrack looking west
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Omaha
May 6, 1975
72nd & Pacific Street looking east
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Oklahoma
May 6, 2015
Southwest of Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
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Oklahoma
May 6, 2015
Bridge Creek, Oklahoma
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North Central Texas
May 7, 2015
Northwest of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex
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Mother’s Day Storm
May 10, 2015
Coors Field – Denver, Colorado
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Mother’s Day Storm
May 10, 2015
Near Lake City, Iowa
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Mother’s Day Storm
May 10, 2015
Lake City, Iowa
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Mother’s Day Storm
May 10, 2015
Lake City, Iowa
65
Texas – drought to flooding
May 23, 2015
San Angelo,Texas
66
Texas – drought to flooding
May 23, 2015
San Angelo,Texas
67
Texas – drought to flooding
May 26, 2015
I-45 in Houston,Texas
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Texas – drought to flooding
May 26, 2015
Houston,Texas
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Last Spring’s Forecast
March – April – May
2015
2015 2015
TEMPERATURE
PRECIPITATION
71
Actual Spring Departures
March – April – May
2015 2015 2015
TEMPERATURE
PRECIPITATION
72
Weather Trivia Time
Why is it that your car is frequently dirtier AFTER a rain than it was
before ?
Global Warming
Feral cats
Condensation Nuclei Farm fields
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Weather Trivia Time
Why is it that your car is frequently dirtier AFTER a rain than it was
before ?
Global Warming
Feral cats
Condensation Nuclei Farm fields
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A very wet Summer…
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Drought Conditions Improve
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Drought Conditions Improve
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Long Range
Forecasting
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The Woolly Bear Caterpillar Technique
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The Woolly Bear Caterpillar Technique
Saunders County, Nebraska
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Sunspots
81
Sunspots
82
Sunspots
Current solar activity
spaceweather.com
83
El Nino
84
El Nino forecast to remain
into the Winter
September 10, 2015
85
El Nino Effects on North America
86
Snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere
September 20, 2015
87
Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model
from Australia
CURRENT
FORECAST
88
International Research Institute
for Climate and Society
89
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
August 2014
Cooler waters
90
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
September 2015
Warm waters
Warmer water
91
Monthly Historic
El Nino/La Nina Data
1950-today
92
A Look at Jeff’s
2015 – 2016 Forecast
93
NOAA Fall Outlook
September – October – November
2015
2015
2015
TEMPERATURE
PRECIPITATION
94
Fall Long Range Forecast, Temperatures
The Weather Network
95
Jeff’s Fall Forecast
September – October – November
2015
2015
2015
TEMPERATURE
PRECIPITATION
96
NOAA Winter Outlook
December – January – February
2015
2016
TEMPERATURE
2016
PRECIPITATION
97
Winter Long Range Forecast, Temperatures
The Weather Network
98
Jeff’s Winter Forecast
December – January – February
2015
2016
2016
TEMPERATURE
PRECIPITATION
99
NOAA Spring Outlook
March – April – May
2016
2016
TEMPERATURE
2016
PRECIPITATION
100
Jeff’s Spring Forecast
March – April – May
2016 2016 2016
TEMPERATURE
PRECIPITATION
101
To conclude…….
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FALL:
West Coast and Florida – Warm and Dry
Rest of country – Cooling to near Normal
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FALL:
West Coast and Florida – Warm and Dry
Rest of country – Cooling to near Normal
WINTER: Northern States – Not as Cold
Southern States – Chilly with Wet/Ice
Northern Plains – Near Normal Snowfall
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FALL:
West Coast and Florida – Warm and Dry
Rest of country – Cooling to near Normal
WINTER: Northern States – Not as Cold
Southern States – Chilly with Wet/Ice
Northern Plains – Near Normal Snowfall
SPRING: West Coast and Northern Plains – Mild
Southern States and East Coast –
Cool and Wet
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Thank You!
That’s a wrap for this year!
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