Climate Change
throughout the Dakota’s
By: Benjamin Uecker
Graduate Research Assistant
Natural Resource Management Department
North Dakota State University
Background Information

Global average surface temperature has risen at an
average rate of 0.15°F per decade since 1901.

Contiguous 48 states average surface temperature has
risen at an average rate of 0.14°F per decade since 1901.

More rapid increase since the late 1970’s (0.31 to 0.48°F per
decade)

7 of the top 10 warmest years on record have occurred since 1998.

2012 being the warmest year ever recorded
(Peterson , 2013)
Northern Plains

Annual water loss from evapotranspiration is higher than annual precipitation.

An Average of seven days per year, maximum temperatures reached more
than 95°F.

Spring precipitation is projected to increase causing:


Increase runoff/flooding

Reducing water quality

Eroding soils
Benefits:


Productivity will increase

Longer growing season

Increase Water availability?
However, most of the predicted increase in precipitation is during cooler
months. With the projected increase in temperatures additional
evapotranspiration will occur, which will bring in additional negative affects.
Climate Change Throughout the Dakota’s per County


North and South Dakota consists of 119 counties.

North Dakota consist of 53 counties

South Dakota consist of 66 counties
Climate data spans 64 years (1950-2014)

Temperature Maximum (°F)

Temperature Minimum (°F)

Precipitation (Inches)

Growing Degree Days (Days)

Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) spans 119 years (1895-2014)

Variable lengths of time

Season Length (Days)
Data Collection

Temperature Maximum, Temperature Minimum and Precipitation

ACIS Query Builder

Developed and is maintained and operated by NOAA Regional Climate Centers.


Standard Precipitation Index (SPI)

West Wide Drought Tracker


Developed and Maintained by Oregon State
Season Length

SC ACIS Version 2


“Interrogates historical climate information and near real-time data together to form a final
product to help assess historical climate trends (Centers, 2014)”.
Developed and Maintained by NOAA Northeast Regional Climate Center
*All climate data was taken in the center of the county using longitude and
latitude coordinates.*
Growing Degree Days


For most plants, phonological development is strongly related to the
accumulation of heat or temperature units above a threshold base
temperature.

Corns lower base temperature is 50°F

Corns upper limit temperature is 86°F
Growing degree day formula:
BaseTemp 2

Example:
75
52
2
50
13.5
Phase
Vegetative
Reproductive
Development Stage
GDD
Planting
0
Two leaves fully emerged
200
Four leaves fully emerged
345
Six leaves fully emerged (growing point above soil)
476
Eight leaves fully emerged (tassel beginning to develop)
610
Ten leaves fully emerged
740
Twelve leaves fully emerged (ear formation)
870
Fourteen leaves fully emerged (silks developing on ear)
1000
Sixteen leaves fully emerged (tip of tassel emerging)
1135
Silks emerging/pollen shedding (plant at full height)
1400
Kernels in blister stage
1660
Kernels in dough stage
1925
Kernels denting
2190
Kernels dented
2450
Physiological maturity
2700
(Gibson , 2003)
Conclusions


Average change in slope throughout North Dakota

Temperature Maximum -0.044°F per decade

Temperature Minimum 0.290°F per decade

Precipitation 0.596 inches per decade

Growing degree days -16.7 per decade

Season Length 2.91 days per decade
Normal (1981-2011)

Temperature Maximum 52.3°F

Temperature Minimum 29.3°F

Precipitation 18.8 inches

Growing Degree Days 2320
Works Cited

Assessment, N. C. (2015). Recent U.S. Temperature Trends . Retrieved from globalchange.gov :
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/recent-us-temperature-trends#statement16553

Centers, R. C. (2014, March 22). ACIS Applied Climate Information System. Retrieved from ACIS :
http://www.rcc-acis.org/aboutacis_overview.html

Climate of 2013- April U.S. Standardized Precipitation Index. (2013, May 15). Retrieved from NOAA National
Climatic Data Center: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/prelim/drought/spi.html

Eggleston , K. (2014, November 14). SC ACIS . Retrieved from http://scacis.rcc-acis.org/

EPA. (2014, July 2). CLimate Change Indicators in the United States . Retrieved from EPA.gov :
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators/weather-climate/temperature.html

Gibson , L. R. (2003, September 26). Growing degree-day calculation . Retrieved from Agronomy 212- Gran
and Forage Crops : http://agron-www.agron.iastate.edu/Courses/agron212/Calculations/GDD.htm

Growing Degree Days (GDD). (2015). Retrieved from NDAWN Center North Dakota Agricultural Weather
Network : http://ndawn.ndsu.nodak.edu/help-corn-growing-degree-days.html

MapTechnica . (2015 , March 22). Retrieved from MapTechnica.com : http://www.maptechnica.com/

NOAA. (2015, March 31). ACIS Query Builder . Retrieved from http://builder.rcc-acis.org/

Peterson , T. C. (2013). Monitoring and Undersatnding Changes in Heat Waves, Cold Waves, Floods, and
Droughts in the United Sates: State of Knowledge. AMS Journals Online, Vlume 94, Issure 6 .

WestWideDroughtTracker . (2015, March 31). Retrieved from http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/wwdt/time/