Change and Issues of International Trade
under World Economic Crisis
―Point of White Paper on
International Economy and Trade 2009－
July 16, 2009
Koji Ito
Ⅰ Worldwide Recession and Change of International Trade
１．Change of Trade after Financial Crisis
○ The world trade rapidly decreased after last September.
○ IIP and retail sales also show the same trend.
Trade of Goods, IIP and retail sales are decreasing rapidly.
IIP
Trade of Goods (SDR)
(Year on Year, %) Retail sales
(Year on Year, %) (Year on Year, %) Emerging Market Emerging Market 11.7
World ‐0.1 Amount
World Value
Developed countries
備考：１．先進諸国とは、米国、カナダ、英国、ユーロ圏、日本、韓国、台湾、香港、シンガポール、豪州、 ニュージーランド、チェコ、デンマーク、イスラエル、
ノルウェー、スウェーデン及びスイス、の計 17カ国・地域。
２．新興諸国とは、中国、インド、パキスタン、インドネシア、マレーシア、タイ、アルゼンチン、 ブラジル、ブルガリア、チリ、コロンビア、エストニア、
ハンガリー、ラトビア、リトアニア、メキシコ、ペルー、フィリピン、ポーランド、ルーマニア、 ロシア、スロバキア共和国、南ア、トルコ、ウクライナ及び
ベネズエラの26カ国。
３．貿易額はSDR換算。
資料： IMF「World Economic Outlook, April 2009」
Source : IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2008”
Developed Countries
‐5.2
2
２．Change of Import
○ In US and EU countries where financial institutions faced bankruptcy, personal
consumption and investment decreased to a large extent, and the decrease of
domestic demand made import decrease.
○ Import of Europe countries and US decreased in all items. The main factor of decrease
is durable consumer goods such as automobiles and electric machines and capital
goods such as general machines.
Contribution by Countries to Change of World Import
Contribution by Items
to Change of US and EU27 import
米国及びEU27の財輸入（前年比）の
(except
resource import)
品目別寄与度（原油等資源輸入を除く）
($, year on year %)
($, year on year %)
Other Countries
Latin America
General Machine
ASEAN+6
Electric Machine Total Import
Transport Machine
Chemical
Other
1
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2008
Source : IMF “Direction of Trade”
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1
2008 2009 Source : World Trade atlas
3
３．Change of Export
○ The most drastic decrease of export happened in Japan. The decrease of export of
China is the second-largest.
○ Countries which exports durable consumer goods and/or capital goods experiences
decrease of export as well as countries in Europe and Asia which form production
network.
Change of Export by destination
(Difference from year-ago Period)
(million USD)
Middle
East
Mexico
Contribution by Destination to Change of German Export
China
East
Europe
Canada
US
Russia
US
Other EU countries
Asia
US Japan EU15 East China Asia Europe Japan
EURO Area
Middle Russia Canada Mexico
East
Source : IMF “Direction of Trade, World Trade Atlas
Source : Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland,
Deutsche Bundesbank
4
４．Comparison with Great Depression in the 1930s
○ At Great Depression in the 1930s, the decrease rate of trade gradually got worse and
worse.
○ The trade in the first quarter 2009 decreased more rapidly than that in the 1930s.
Trend of trade at Great Depression and After Financial Crisis
1st Quarter of 1930
～1st Quarter of 1933
4th Quarter of 2008
～ 1st Quarter of 2009 Note：The data from 1st Quarter of 1930 to 1st Quarter of 1933 is a total of import of 75 countries.
The data from 4th Quarter of 2008 to 1st Quarter of 2009 is a total of import of WTO member countries.
Sourace：Kindleberger (1984)「The World in Depression 1929-1939」, WTO.
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Ⅱ Background of Decrease of International Trade
１．Reason of Deacrease of International Trade
○ The direct factor is World economic crisis.
○ The enlargement of the housing market in US (Housing Bubble) caused financial crisis.
○ Furthermore, the increase of investment funds such as pension, insurance and
investment trust, which are caused y aging in developed countries and economic
growth of emerging countries, and lack of good asset for investment made the housing
bubble in US (The mismatch of good asset made the long term interest rate in the low
level. Investors invested in US, the only supplier of good asset and the housing
market grew swiftly).
Structure of the housing bubble in US
Emerging アジア新興諸国
Countries in Asia
Protection for currency 通貨危機再発防止
crisis
Emerging Countries in Asia, Middle East , Japan
アジア新興諸国、中東産油諸国、日本
Growth of 輸出主導型の
Industry led 産業発展
by export
Restriction of lending 銀行借入の抑制
from Bank
Exchange Intervention
為替介入
Depreciati‐
on of local 自国通貨安
Currency
Increase of Foreign 外貨準備の急増
Reserve
Increase of （短期的）所得拡大
Income
Unstable Political 市場環境（政治的安
Situation, lack of 定性、法制度、ビジネ
legal
system, etc
ス慣行）の未整備
Asset Market in 米国資産市場
USA
米
国
USA
Good Business 市場環境
Environment （政治的安定性、法制
(度、ビジネス慣行）の
Legal System,
etc)
整備
Aging, 進展、
高齢化の
housing
ベビーブーマーの住宅
acquisition
取得、移民の流入
lack of 内需不足と
Domestic 貯蓄率の上昇
Demand
Lack of
良質な国内資産市場
Good Asset 形成の遅れ
Market
良質な資産市場の
Good Asset 形成
Market
401ｋ等
Preferential
各種個人資産優遇
Tax for 税制の整備
Personal Asset
Excess 貯蓄過剰
Saving
Increase of Demand for
海外優良資産への
Foreign Good 需要拡大
Asset
Skewed 優良資産の
Distribution of 米国偏在
Good asset
年金・保険・投資信託
Investment
資金の急増
決済通貨としての
USD as a key ドルの魅力
currency
米国資産への
Concentration 内外からの
of Invest fund 投資集中
to US
Housing 米国住宅バブルの
Bubble
発生
Increase of Fund
Increase of 優良資産への
Demand for
需要拡大
Good Asset
6
２．Increase of World Investment Fund
○ The world investment fund such as pension, insurance and investment trust, got 2 times in five years from 2002 to 2007.
○ Especially the amount of pension, insurance and investment trust in US is as
large as that of other developed countries.
Pension , Insurance Investment Trust of Developed Countries
（End of 2007）
Trend of World Investment Asset
(Trill $)
2 times
(Trill $)
Other
Personal
Asset
US 35.5
Pension
Investment Trust
Other Developed Countries 38.6
Pension,
Insuranc,
Investment Trust
Insurance
Foreign
Reserve Source : IFS, CBS Fund Management 2003‐2008
US Japan UK France Germany Nether‐ Swiss Other
land Source : IFS, CBS Fund Management 2003‐2008
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Ⅲ Worldwide Recession and Trade of Japan
1．Japanese economy after Financial Crisis
○ After October 2008, export and import, which had a trend to enlarge for a
long time, turned to decrease. Especially, the change ratio of export made a
worst record from November 2008 to February 2009.
○ Because of the swift decrease of export, trade balance moved from surplus
to deficit, first in 26 years. Trade deficit continued till January 2009, but even
after February, the trade surplus is in a low level.
Change Ratio of Japanese Export and IIP Trend of Japanese Trade Balance
Real effective
exchange rate
Export
IIP
Export
Source : METI”IIP”, World Trade Atlas
Trade Balance
Import
Source : Ministry of Finance , Bank of Japan
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2．Background of Export Decrease（１）Development of Production Network in Asia
○ In the 2000s, Japan enlarged export of intermediate goods to Asian countries, in addition to export of final goods to Europe and US. In Asia, China increased export of final goods to Europe and US.
○Because of recession in Europe & US, not only Japanese export to Europe & US but also export to Asia decrease. （On the other hand, Asian countries’ exports to Europe & US decrease but their imports from Japan also decrease.)
２０００
Japan
Trade Structure of Japan, Asia, Europe and US
２００７
（Mill $ )
Material
11.4%
Intermediate Goods
57.1%
Final
Goods
31.5%
Japan
349,891
206,696
238,325
230,777
191,368
253,546
NIEs
NIEs
Europe
& US
ASEAN
Europe
& US
ASEAN
178,678
121,163
China
China
172,213
Source：RIETI‐TID
626,853
9
2．Background of Export Decrease（2） Increasing Value-Added of Export Goods
○ Japanese main export goods, Automobiles, electronic machines and general machines, are durable consumer goods or capital goods, which have a tendency not to be sold in recession. ○ In addition, because Japanese exporters have been trying to increase the value‐added of export goods, they became more vulnerable against recession.
Contribution to Change of Japanese Export by item (%)
（円ベース、前年比、％）
20 Index of Value‐added of Export Goods
Of Japan and Korea
After October, all items 10月以降全品目が減少。
decreased 日韓輸出高機能化指数【総合】
10 (2000年=100)
Other ▲13.9
0 （参考）鉱工業生産指数
‐10 IIP
その他
‐13.9▲13.9
General その他
輸出総額
一般機械
‐9.4
一般機械▲9.4
Machine ▲9.4
Export Value
‐20 09/4
(月次、原数値)
140
Japan
日本
130
韓国
Electric
Machine ▲7.3
120
Automobiles
自動車
‐14.8
▲14.8
自動車▲14.8
110
電気機械 ‐7.3
電気機械 ▲7.3
‐30 ‐40 09/3
45.5%
▲45.5
‐50 100
（資料） World Trade Atlas
Source：World Trade Atlas
09年3月
09年2月
09年1月
08年12月
08年11月
08年10月
08年9月
08年8月
08年7月
08年6月
08年5月
08年4月
08年3月
08年2月
08年1月
‐60 （年月）
Korea
90
80
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
資料：三菱UFJ証券
Source：Mitsubishi UFJ securities
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Ⅳ Policy Issues after World Economic Crisis
１．Policy Issues for World Economy
（１）Efforts to solve overconcentration of investment fund
○ Because of aging and growth of emerging countries, it is highly possible that the
world investment fund increases. The mechanism of “ Bubble → Collapse →
Recession ” will happen again.
○ As the bubble collapsed in US, which collected investment fund from all over the
world, the negative impact also became worldwide. To escape from the same
situation, it is needed to solve overconcentration of investment fund.
① Developed countries：increase of profit rate of its own asset through sustainable
economic growth by enlargement of domestic demand
② Emerging countries: Increase of political stability, Upgrading of legal system,
modernization of trade practice, Increase of good domestic asset
（２） Prevention of Protectionism
○ WTO makes its member countries hard to adopt trade measures incompatible with
WTO Agreements.
○ It is important for each member country not to adopt protective measures compatible
with WTO Agreements.
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２．Policy Issues for Japanese Economy
（１） Reconsideration of Export Strategy ○ Japanese export of final goods heavily depends on export to US. Exporters of final goods succeeded. But they can not take the same action any more.
○ They have to change export and/or FDI strategy based on the change of sale in each local market.
（２） Create of new goods and services
○ The economic growth of emerging countries means of the growth of industries in emerging countries. Products made in emerging countries such as China show its presence in the world in the 2000s.
○ It is hard for Japan to compete with emerging countries by producing products emerging countries can produce. It is inevitable to seek and advertise new attraction
Japan‐China Trade Specialization Ratio by Item
Total Trade
General Machine
Electric Machine Auto Parts
Computers
Communication Device
Engine
Electronic Components
Note : Trade Specialization Ratio = (Export ‐ Import) / (Export + Import)
Source : Ministry of Finance “Trade Statistics”
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