Visions of a Sustainable Future
Transition to a Hydrogen Future:
Scenarios for the U.S.
James J. Winebrake, Ph.D.
Rochester Institute of Technology
Presented at the IMVP Japan Briefing Meeting
12 September 2003
Overview
Problems in the U.S.
Future solutions
The use of scenarios
Questions for consideration
Future research needs
Conclusion
Problems: Environmental Impacts
Transportation Share of Emissions
PM
10
CO2
33
VOCs
44
53
NOx
CO
79
0
20
40
60
Percent
80
100
Still a major contributor, despite
reductions in new vehicle emissions
achieved over the last decade.
U.S. Forecast VMT and MPG
20.4
4.00
20.0
3.00
19.6
2.00
19.2
1.00
0.00
18.8
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Year
Light Duty Vehicles
MPG LDV Fleet
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2003, DOE/EIA-0383(2003), January 2003.
MPG
VMT (Trillion)
5.00
Problems: Petroleum Dependence
Petroleum
“Gap”
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Trans. Cons.
Dom. Prod.
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
Million Barrels per Day
U.S. Petroleum Consumption and Production
1970-2020
Year
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2003, DOE/EIA-0383(2003), January 2003.
Some Solutions
Improved efficiency
Alternative fuels
Pure electric
Hybrid-electric vehicles
Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles
Others?
100
90
Percent Market Penetration
80
70
60
Conventional
Transportation
Technology
Sustainable
Transportation
Technology
50
40
30
20
10
0
2000
2010
But how do we get
from HERE…
2020
2030
2040
2050
…to THERE?
U.S. Federal R&D Focus
FreedomCAR
„
“Affordable full-function cars and trucks that are
free of foreign oil and harmful emissions, without
sacrificing safety, freedom of mobility, and
freedom of vehicle choice.”
FreedomCAR Focus
„
„
„
„
„
Reduce vehicle weight
Improve energy production and storage
Advancing ICE
Building electronic components
Developing hybrid electric drivetrains
U.S. Policy Focus
Existing Tax incentives for HEVs and
AFVs
Energy Policy Act of 2004?
„
„
„
Grant programs and demonstrations
CAFE standards
Fuel cell vehicle program
International Partnership for the
Hydrogen Economy
Key Question for U.S. Markets
TECHNICAL:
„
„
„
What technologies will drive this transition?
What “technology sequence” will occur?
How will new technologies support or compete with each
other? (For example, will hybrids support or supplant the
need for hydrogen?)
ECONOMIC:
„
„
„
What economic factors will affect markets and consumer
preferences?
How will prices for oil and alternatives affect markets?
How will vehicle production costs affect market
development?
Key Questions
(continued)
ENVIRONMENTAL:
„
How will environmental issues affect technology
development and acceptance?
POLITICAL:
„
„
„
How will government policies affect new technology market
development?
How will government R&D expenditures be spent?
How will mandates or incentives be used?
SOCIAL/DEMOGRAPHIC:
„
„
How do U.S. demographics affect the technology transition?
How do global economic development and population
growth affect market development in the U.S. and abroad
The Most Challenging Question
How does a
company plan
for the future
under these
uncertainties?
The Use of Scenarios
Different from traditional forecast planning
“A tool for ordering one’s perceptions about
alternative future environments in which decisions
might be played out.” (Schwartz, 1996)
Purpose: “To generate projects and decisions that
are more robust under a variety of alternative
futures.” (Van der Heijden, 1996)
“Scenario building helps an organization envision a
future in order to develop plans, programs, or
policies that allow it to respond to, change, or create
that future.” (Winebrake, 2003)
Process of Scenario Building
Formal process
„
„
„
„
„
„
„
Identify focal issue
Identify driving forces or variables
Rank forces by importance and uncertainty
Select scenario logics
Flesh out the scenarios
Determine implications—robust decisions
Select leading indicators and “signposts”
Scenarios from the Energy Field
American Public Transit Association
DOE: (1) Energy 2050, (2) Quality Metrics,
(3) Five-Lab Study
IIASA/WEC: Global Energy 2100
IPCC: Emissions Scenarios
Shell Oil: Scenarios to 2050
WBCSD: Future Energy
EPRI (EDV Futures)
U.S. Department of Energy Quality Metrics Work
Annual Energy Outlook 2025 v. EPRI Study
Vehicle Populations for 2025
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Gasoline
EV
HEV-D GI
HEV-D GC
HEV-G GI
AEO 2025 Forecast
EDV Future
HEV-G GC
FCV-H2 GI
FCV-H2GC
EV=battery electric; HEV=hybrid electric vehicle; D=diesel; G=gasoline
GI=grid-independent; GC=grid connected; FCV=fuel cell vehicle; H2=hydrogen
Problems with Recent Examples
Lack of systematic analysis relevant to automakers’
concerns
No focal decision considered (e.g., Where should my
company focus R&D investment?)
Transition period not well-investigated (“time-warp”
problem)
Dialogue among decision-makers and experts often
weak—scenario building should be used to frame
debate
Indicators and signposts rarely identified
More like alternative forecasts than a true scenario
building process
Research Needed
Scenario building targeted at automakers’ decision
making during the transition period between now and
a potential hydrogen future
„
„
„
Development of scenario building framework
Development of mechanism for dialogue among business
and government leaders about the future
Identification of signposts, leading indicators, and perhaps a
“road map” for planning purposes
Questions and Discussion