Public Opinion
Course
Rationale
Political Science I Understanding how to analyze and measure public opinion, as well as its
influence on politicians, public policy and perceptions, is essential to a
successful career in government and public administration.
Unit V
Public Opinion
and Interest
Objectives
The students will be able to:
Groups
1. Investigate sources and influences of public opinion
2. Analyze the effect of public opinion on leadership
Essential
3. Analyze how public opinion is measured
Question
4. Critique the reliability of those measurements
What is the
5. Predict the effects of expressed public opinion on poll items such as
function of
elections, behavior of elected officials, tax policy, services, and
public opinion in
environmental protection
the American
6. Conduct an opinion poll
political system?
7. Evaluate an opinion poll
TEKS
§130.183(c)
Engage
Introduce the following concepts: The President is the Chief Legislator of our
(6)(A–E)
country and must have the support of US citizens and the US Congress to
change his or her mandates into law. Provide an overview of the Bill
Prior Student
Clinton/Monica Lewinsky affair. Point out that President Bill Clinton was only
Learning
the second president to be impeached and that Clinton’s presidential
Political
approval rating reached its highest point in 1999, after the Lewinsky affair.
Socialization
Then show a video of President Bill Clinton’s apology. (To find a video
Estimated Time conduct an Internet search for the following: President Clinton apologizes to
the nation.) After watching the video, divide the class into groups of 3-4
2 to 3 hours
students and have them discuss the following question: Why was public
opinion of Bill Clinton’s presidency at a high point in 1999, in lieu of the
Lewinsky affair? Use the Discussion Rubric for assessment.
(Note: During Clinton’s time in office he and his wife were subject to a
special investigation regarding a business investment they made while he
was the Governor of Arkansas. While undergoing investigation, President
Clinton had a sexual affair with an intern (Monica Lewinsky). He was asked
while under oath about the affair and lied, thus, perjuring himself and
breaking the law. He was impeached (charged with perjury).
Clinton and his public-relations staff did a fantastic job of influencing public
opinion. They sent the message that while Clinton had lied under oath, he
did so not to lie or cheat the American people but to protect his wife from the
embarrassment of his affair. Clinton and his staff also argued to the public
that it was not the domain of the American people to know the private issues
of a married couple. The message influenced the public’s opinion by
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diverting attention away from the affair and onto the great job the president
had done and was doing for the American people.)
Key Points
I. What is public opinion?
A. The opinion or attitude of a significant group of people about a matter
concerning public affairs
1. “Public affairs include politics, public issues, and the making of
public policies—those events and issues that concern the people at
large” (McClenaghan, 2009)
2. Examples: political parties and candidates, taxes, unemployment,
foreign policy, etc.
B. The “public” refers to a significant group of people that share a view of
a particular issue that effects the people as a whole; there are many
different publics and many different public opinions
C. Some general characteristics of public opinions
1. They are difficult to measure
2. They are learned
3. They change
4. They influence government decisions
5. They can overlap or conflict
D. How opinions differ
1. Opinion saliency – some people care more about certain issues
2. Opinion stability – opinions on some issues are relatively steady,
but can be more volatile on others
3. Opinion-policy congruence – public opinion and public policy are in
sync for some issues and out of sync for others
II.
How is public opinion influenced?
A. Political socialization
B. Political efficacy
C. Mass media
D. Peer groups
E. Opinion leaders
F. Historic events
III. How is public opinion measured?
A. Public opinion polls – “devices that attempt to collect information by
asking people questions” (McClenaghan, 2009)
1. Straw votes
a) Involve asking the same question to a large group of people
b) Are highly unreliable
c) Do not ensure a reasonable cross-section of the entire
population
2. Scientific polling
a) Began in the mid-1930s
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b) Has become highly sophisticated
c) Is performed by commercial polling organizations, of which two
of the best known are
(1) Gallup Organization (the Gallup Poll)
(2) Pew Research Center for People and the Press
d) “A number of the leading national polls are joint efforts of major
news-gathering and professional polling organizations
e) They report public attitudes on current issues (i.e. support of the
President or Congress)
f) Is extremely complex but can be described in five basic steps
(1) Define the universe to be surveyed
(a) Universe – entire population that the poll aims to
measure
(b) Example: every high school student in Texas
(2) Construct a sample
(a) Most pollsters draw random samples
(i) Sample – a representative portion of the total
universe
(ii) Random sample – composed of randomly selected
people so that all of the members have an equal
chance of being interviewed
(b) Most major national polls use samples with
approximately 1,500 people to represent the nation’s
adult population (over 200 million people)
(c) The mathematical law of probability makes a sample an
accurate representation as long as the sample selected
is
(i) A sufficient size and
(ii) Properly selected at random from the entire
universe
(3) Prepare valid questions
(a) The wording of questions is critical to the reliability of
the poll
(b) Responsible pollsters avoid
(i) Questions that are emotionally “loaded”
(ii) Questions that lead the participants to the desired
answer
(iii) Terms that are difficult to understand
(4) Select and control how the poll is taken
(a) A pollster’s method of communication can affect the
poll’s accuracy
(i) Face-to-face
(ii) Telephone calls
(a) Is the most common method
(b) Utilizes random-digit dialing
(iii) Mail
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(b) An interviewer’s tone of voice and/or word emphasis
can affect the participants’ responses and a poll’s
validity
(c) Polling organizations try to hire and train their
interviewing staff very carefully
(5) Analyze and report the findings to the public
(a) Polls measure people’s attitudes
(b) Scientific polling organizations
(i) Collect huge amounts of raw data
(ii) Use technologies to
(a) Calculate and interpret their data
(b) Draw conclusions
(c) Publish findings
3. Evaluating Polls
a) Weaknesses
(1) Pollsters acknowledge their difficulties measuring
(a) Intensity – the strength of the feeling with which an
opinion is held
(b) Stability (or fluidity) – the relative permanence of an
opinion
(c) Relevance (or pertinence) – how important a particular
opinion is to the person who holds it
(2) Critics say that pollsters shape the opinions they are
supposed to measure
b) Strengths
(1) Scientific polls are the most useful tools for measuring
public opinion
(2) They are not precise, but they are reliable
(3) They help specify questions and stimulate discussion of
them
B. Other methods are unreliable but may be used to find key indicators
1. Elections
a) Are rarely an accurate measure of public opinion
b) Are occasionally useful indicators of public opinion
2. Interest Groups
a) Are private organizations that work to shape public policy to
their objectives (i.e. pressure groups or special interest groups)
b) Provide a primary method to make a public opinion heard
c) Apply pressure through
(1) Lobbyists
(2) Letters
(3) Telephone calls
(4) Emails
(5) Political campaigns
(6) Other methods
3. Personal Contacts
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a) Are a resource that public figures use to try and gauge public
opinion
b) Some public officials can do this successfully, but many are
biased and only see what they want to see
IV. How does public opinion affect public policy?
A. Public opinion has a powerful role in US politics
B. Framers of the Constitution wanted to create a representative
democracy that would
1. Give the people an active voice in government (popular rule)
2. Insulate the government from the whims of an ill-informed public
C. The following aspects of our constitutional government protect the
minority interests from the majority views and actions
1. Separation of powers
2. Checks and balances
3. Civil rights and liberties
D. Public opinion is one influence on public policy along with
1. Interest groups
2. Political parties
3. Mass media
4. Other institutions of government
5. Ideas of activists and public officials
Activities
1. Student Opinion Poll – Divide the class into groups of four or five. Have
each group work together to create and conduct an opinion poll on the
topic of its choosing. The poll must include 10-15 questions that require
the participants to answer whether they completely agree, somewhat
agree, are neutral, somewhat disagree, or completely disagree. Some
sample questions are:
 Do you favor legal immigration?
 Should all immigrants be allowed into our country?
 If a legal immigrant commits a violent crime should he or she be
deported?
The survey may be conducted on paper or using a free Internet survey
website. Have the students predict the results of their surveys. Then have
the groups collect their data and present their results to the class using a
simple graph (i.e. pie or bar). Have the students answer the following
questions in their presentations:
 Did the results align with your predictions?
 Do you think your survey results are reliable?
Evaluate and discuss as a class the reliability of each groups’ survey
results. Use the Presentation Rubric and the Discussion Rubric for
assessment.
Assessments
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Public Opinion Quiz and Key
Discussion Rubric
Individual Work Rubric
Presentation Rubric
Materials
Public Opinion computer-based presentation
Computers with Internet access, and/or printers with paper
Poster boards and drawing materials
Resources
McClenaghan, W. A. (2009). Magruder's American Government, Pearson.
Glencoe McGraw-Hill (2009), United States Government: Democracy in
Action, Glencoe McGraw-Hill.
Wilson, J. Q., Dilulio Jr., J. J., and Bose, M. (2011). American Government
Institutions and Policies, Wadsworth Cengage Learning.
Accommodations for Learning Differences
For reinforcement, the students will find an example of a public opinion poll
(Internet, newspaper, or magazines), then answer the following questions:
 Is the poll scientific? Why or why not?
 What does the poll show about public opinion?
 Who would use the results and why?
Use the Individual Work Rubric for assessment.
For enrichment, the students will create an oversized bumper sticker vying
for the public opinion about a topic of their choice (i.e. Obamacare,
immigration, environmental protection, etc.). (Note: Divide the class into
groups of four or five. Use one poster board for every five students. Cut the
poster board into five-inch wide strips. Give each group drawing materials.)
The students will present their bumper stickers to the class. Display the
bumper stickers in your classroom. Use the Presentation Rubric and/or the
Individual Work Rubric for assessment.
State Education Standards
Texas Essential Knowledge and Skills for Career and Technical Education
§130.183. Political Science I (One to Two Credits).
(6)
The student analyzes public opinion. The student is expected
to:
(A)
investigate sources and influences of public opinion;
(B)
analyze the effect of public opinion on leadership;
(C)
analyze how public opinion is measured;
(D)
critique the reliability of those measurements; and
(E)
predict the effects of expressed public opinion on poll
items such as elections, elected official behavior, tax
policy, services, and environmental protection.
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College and Career Readiness Standards
Cross-Disciplinary Standards
I. Key Cognitive Skills
B. Reasoning
3. Gather evidence to support arguments, findings, or lines of
reasoning.
4. Support or modify claims based on the results of an inquiry.
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Name________________________________
Date__________________________
Public Opinion Quiz
1. _____Public opinion is the attitude of a significant group of people about a matter
concerning public affairs.
A. True
B. False
2. _____Which of the following are examples of public affairs?
A. Taxes
B. Unemployment
C. Foreign policy
D. All of the above
3. _____Which of the following are the general characteristics of public opinions?
A. They are easy to measure
B. They change
C. They do not influence government decisions
D. None of the above
4. _____Which of the following terms describes how public opinions differ?
A. Opinion saliency
B. Opinion stability
C. Opinion-policy congruence
D. All of the above
5. _____Historic events can influence public opinion.
A. True
B. False
6. _____Straw votes are a method of scientific polling.
A. True
B. False
7. _____Two of the best known national pollsters are
A. Gallup Organization
B. Pew Research Center for People and the Press
C. Both A and B
D. Neither A nor B
8. _____Which of the following is not a step in the scientific polling process?
A. Define the universe to be surveyed
B. Construct a sample
C. Compile the political party
D. None of the above
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9. _____Scientific polls are the most useful tools for measuring public opinion because they
are extremely precise.
A. True
B. False
10. _____Pollsters acknowledge the difficulty of measuring which of the following
characteristics of public opinion?
A. Intensity
B. Stability
C. Relevance
D. All of the above
11. _____Elections are rarely an accurate measure of public opinion but are occasionally
useful indicators of public opinion.
A. True
B. False
12. _____Interest Groups apply pressure through which of the following?
A. Lobbyists
B. Emails
C. Political campaigns
D. All of the above
13. _____Personal contacts are a resource that public figures use to try and gauge public
opinion.
A. True
B. False
14. _____The Framers of the Constitution did not consider the power of public opinion when
they wrote the Constitution.
A. True
B. False
15. _____Public opinion has the most powerful role in US politics.
A. True
B. False
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Public Opinion Quiz Key
1. A
2. D
3. B
4. D
5. A
6. B
7. C
8. C
9. B
10. D
11. A
12. D
13. A
14. B
15. A
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Name_______________________________________
Date_______________________________
Discussion Rubric
Objectives
4 pts.
Excellent
3 pts.
Good
2 pts. Needs Some
Improvement
1 pt. Needs Much
Improvement
N/A
Pts.
Participates in group discussion
Encourages others to join the
conversation
Keeps the discussion progressing
to achieve goals
Shares thoughts actively while
offering helpful recommendations to
others
Gives credit to others for their ideas
Respects the opinions of others
Involves others by asking questions
or requesting input
Expresses thoughts and ideas
clearly and effectively
Total Points (32 pts.)
Comments:
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Name______________________________________
Date_______________________________________
Individual Work Rubric
4 pts.
Excellent
Objectives
3 pts.
Good
2 pts. Needs Some
Improvement
1 pt. Needs Much
Improvement
N/A
Pts.
Follows directions
Student completed the work as directed,
following the directions given, in order and to the
level of quality indicated
Time management
Student used time wisely and remained on task
100% of the time
Organization
Student kept notes and materials in a neat,
legible, and organized manner. Information was
readily retrieved
Evidence of learning
Student documented information in his or her
own words and can accurately answer questions
related to the information retrieved
*Research/Gathering information (if relevant)
Student used a variety of methods and sources
to gather information. Student took notes while
gathering information
Total Points (20 pts.)
Comments:
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Name:____________________________________
Date:_____________________________
Presentation Rubric
4 pts.
Excellent
Objectives
3 pts.
Good
2 pts. Needs Some
Improvement
1 pt. Needs Much
Improvement
N/A
Pts.
Topic/Content
 Topic discussed completely and in-depth
 Includes properly cited sources (if used)
Creativity/Neatness
 Integrates a variety of multimedia effects to
create a professional presentation (transition
and graphics) or appropriate visual aid used
 Title slide, table of contents, bibliography are
included, using acceptable format
Mechanics
 Grammar, spelling, punctuation, and
capitalization are correct
 Image and font size are legible to the entire
audience
Oral Presentation
 Communicates with enthusiasm and eye
contact
 Voice delivery and projection are dynamic
and audible
Audience Interaction
 Presentation holds audience’s attention and
relates a clear message
 Clearly and effectively communicates the
content throughout the presentation
Total Points (20 pts.)
Comments:
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