Building Ecological-Economic Models and Scenarios (workshop report),
Paris, February 2013
Thébaud O.*, Doyen L., Innes J, Lample M., Macher C., Mahévas S., Mullon C., Planque B.,
Quaas M., Smith T., Vermard Y.
*Ifremer, Economics Unit & AMURE Research Group; QUT, Brisbane
Including human dimensions in models of NRM?
Challenges ?
DESIGN &
ANALYSIS
Define Objectives
Performance
Measures
SIMULATION CYCLE
© B. Fulton, CSIRO
Challenge 1: Process understanding of uses of marine
ecosystems, their drivers, and responses to change
Governance
Institutions,
regulations,
control
Commercial fishing operators:
Investment / disinvestment
Price dynamics
& their drivers
Commercial harvesters:
 Harvesting decisions (temporal, spatial), gear,
target species
 Discarding / high-grading
 Compliance
Strategic behaviour
…
Demand
“A cod here is not a cod there”
“I think that he thinks that I think …”
Changes in costs
& their drivers
Psychological
factors
“People don’t act as they
should”
Social and moral
Norms, Culture
Challenge 2 : Model complexity
Whole of socioeconomic systems
?
Reachable space given questions
asked, purpose, context, ...
Other uses of
ecosystems
Decision Groups
(fishing firms,
households, ...) &
social networks
Multiple fleets /
Agents
Single Fleet /
Agent
“F”
Single
species
Multispecies
Species / Habitat
interactions
Species
interactions
Whole of
ecosystems
 Uncertainty & large diversity of models (processes, approaches, tools/platforms,
contexts and purposes)
Dealing with complexity:
 Refined methods for sensitivity analysis
 Mathematical focus
 Modelling from first principles
 Multi-modelling approaches
 Systematic documentation of model characteristics
6 |
Challenge 3 : engagement with multiple stakeholders
1 / Avoiding “errors of the third kind” and building trust in the models used for
decision-support :
 difficult to establish and maintain
 once established, beliefs in model validity and accuracy may be difficult to
change
2 / Staged approaches and role for simple models in initial stages
3 / Specific set of skills required
4 / Need to factor in the time / commitment needed!
7 |
Challenge 4 : assessing and communicating trade-offs
1 / Need to include ecological, economic and social dimensions
2 / Importance of distributional aspects
3 / Multi-criteria approaches (e.g. viability)
8 |
Thank you
CMAR
Olivier Thébaud
e olivier.thebaud@csiro.au
w www.csiro.au/
CSIRO MARINE AND ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH/WEALTH FROM OCEANS