From Fishing Capacity to Diversity; Changing Fishery Management Priorities in the US New England Groundfish Fishery Eric Thunberg, NOAA Fisheries, Office of Science and Technology Steven Correia, Massachusetts Division of Marine Fisheries Outline Introduction Management priority timeline Measures of Fleet Diversity Richness Shannon Index Evenness Data and Methods Results Conclusions Management Priorities Over Time Count of topics in Federal Register summaries A18 A13 A16 10 6 2 diversity 10 6 2 A13 A16 Federal Register meeting summaries proxy for topic importance accumulation limits A13 A16 10 6 2 10 6 2 A13 A16 buyout A13 A16 10 6 2 Issues related to capacity dominated from 1996 to 2004 consolidation 10 6 2 A13 A16 latent-effort A13 A16 10 6 2 capacity year 2014 2012 2010 2008 A16 2006 2004 2002 2000 A13 1998 10 6 2 1996 count fleet visioning Issues related to diversity begin to crop up in 2005 with more frequency from 2009 to Present Fleet Diversity FMP Objective to Maintain a Diverse Fleet Gear type, vessel size, locations, levels of participation Fleet Visioning Gear type, vessel size, location Amendment 18 Gear type, vessel size, location, ownership patterns, level of participation through permit banks Primarily framed in terms of presence or absence Lends itself to biodiversity measures General Diversity (Hill 1973) “Diversity Order” determined by q Eggs Juveniles Weight put on less abundant vis à vis more abundant species For q > 0 and < 1 greater weight on less abundant For q > 1 greater weight on more abundant For q = 0; Richness For q = 1; Shannon Index Atlantic Cod EFH For q = 2; Simpson’s Index Adults Effective Diversity and Evenness Effective diversity; the number of vessel types that would be present if all types were equally abundant Shannon; 1D = eSH Simpson; 2D = 1/S For any population with equal abundance; eSH = 1/S = Richness Evenness; The degree to which all vessel types are of equal abundance Gini Coefficient Data and Methods Vessel Types (368 possible vessel types) Gear – hook, longline, gillnet, trawl Vessel size - < 30, 30 to < 50, 50 to < 75, >= 75 Port Group – 23 sub-regions Preponderance of groundfish landings used to assign vessel types; 1996-2012 Vessel trip report data Total of 132 vessel types “existed” in at least 1 year Results – Diversity Measures Trends in three indices From 1996 to 2012 400 600 800 1000 Groundfish Active -69% in active vessels (1,098 to 337) -46% in richness (95 to 51) -37% in effective diversity (51 to 32) Times series break in 2001; prior to 2001 fleet size, richness, and effective diversity change at similar rates -0.6% to -1.7% 50 60 70 80 A16 Shannon Effective Diversity 40 45 50 2002-2010 fleet size down at an average annual rate of 11%, richness down 5% 35 Year 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 A16 1996 Index 90 Number of Vessel Types Effective diversity down 2002-2008 by 5% per year, but stable since 2008 (31 to 34) Evenness (Gini Coefficient) Trends in eveness (Gini Coefficient) 0.62 0.58 0.56 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 0.54 1996 Gini index 0.60 Fishing year Average annual percent change -1.7% since 2002 Abundance among vessel types has become more even since 2002. Gear Effects on Shannon Index Shannon share by gear type trawl 0.65 A16 0.60 Time series median trawl 60%, gillnet 23%, longline 8%, hook 7% A16 gill 0.20 longline A16 Time series break in 2001 – increase in trawl, drop in longline 0.15 0.10 Consistent upward trend in gillnet and trawl, downward trend in longline and hook 0.05 hook 0.08 0.06 Year 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 0.04 1996 Shannon Share 0.25 Vessel Size Effects on Shannon Index Shannon share by vessel size A16 75+ ft 0.16 0.15 0.14 Time series median <30 (5%), 30 to 50 (51%), 50 to 75 (31%), >75 (13%) 0.13 0.12 50 to 75 ft Size classes 30 to 50 and 50 to 75 vary around median 30 to 50 ft -10% average annual change in small vessel share (19962008) 0.33 0.31 0.30 0.53 0.52 0.51 0.50 0.49 < 30 ft 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 Year 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 0.02 1996 Shannon Share 0.32 A16 3% average annual change in large vessel share (20022012) Port Group State Effects on Shannon Index MA 53% of index, increase 1% per year through 2009 down 2010-2012 ME 16% of index 1996-2005, down 8% per year 2006-2010, serial “extinction” of key vessel types. RI 10% of index, 2003-2012 increasing at average annual rate of 6% NY 0.10 0.14 0.09 0.12 0.08 RI ME MA 0.15 0.55 0.10 0.50 0.10 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 0.08 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 0.07 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Shannon Share Shannon share by state Year A16 Other CT NJ 0.03 0.02 0.070 0.04 0.010 NH 0.075 0.05 0.015 0.065 0.03 0.060 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 0.005 Year 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 0.01 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Shannon Share Shannon share by state Conclusions Diversity indicators show downward trend Effective diversity stable since 2008 More even distribution of relative abundance Evidence of shifts among vessel types ↑ share for trawl and gillnet gears ↑ share for larger vessels, ↓ share of small vessels Massachusetts more than 50% of Shannon index ↓ share in Maine port groups ↑share in Rhode Island port groups Conclusions (continued) 40 of 132 vessel types present in all 17 years These 40 vessel types accounted for 85% of Shannon index, 93% of groundfish landings, and 89% of fleet size 46 vessel types present in 5 or fewer years Extirpation or artifact of decision rules? Loss of a rare vessel type reduces diversity Loss of abundant vessel type increases diversity Evaluate rules for assigning vessel type Low frequency of “switch” due to vessel size About 25% due to gear Over 60% of change in vessel type due to port group