Watershed Scale Response to
Climate Change:
Sprague River Basin, Oregon
John Risley
USGS, Portland, Oregon
Lauren E. Hay
USGS, Denver, Colorado
Steven L. Markstrom
USGS, Denver, Colorado
Outline
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National climate change watershed study
Sprague River basin study site
PRMS watershed model
Global Climate Models (GCMs)
IPCC emission scenarios
GCM downscaling method
Sprague River climate change results
Watershed scale response to climate
change in selected basins across the
United States
Yakima
Flathead
Starkweather
Sprague
Sagehen
Feather
Yampa
Incline
Blackearth
Spring
Clear
East
 16 basins from different hydroclimatic regions selected as study sites.
Flint
 GCM climate change scenarios used as drivers to evaluate hydrologic
responses using PRMS (Precipitation Runoff Modeling System – a
physically based distributed watershed model).
 Long term goal is to provide the foundation for hydrologically-based
climate-change studies across the nation.
Watershed scale response to climate
change in selected basins across the
United States
Yakima
Flathead
Starkweather
Sprague
Sagehen
Feather
Yampa
Incline
Blackearth
Spring
Clear
East
Flint
Lauren Hay, Steve Markstrom, William Battaglin, David Bjerklie,
Katherine Chase, Dan Christiansen, Robert Dudley, Randy Hunt,
Kathryn Koczot, Mark Mastin, John Risley, and John Walker
Sprague River Basin
Sprague River Basin
Sprague
River Basin
Drainage area:
1,580 mi2
Snowfall:
30-60 percent of
precipitation
Approximately
25% of Upper
Klamath Lake
inflow
Sprague River Basin
Sprague River Basin
Sprague River Basin
Historic conditions
Percent of annual flow or precipitation
Mean annual precipitation: 20 inches
spatially averaged over the basin
Mean annual flow: 6-7 inches
USGS gage (11501000): 1921-present
20
Sprague River flow
18
Klam ath Falls precipitation
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Watershed model
Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System
• Daily time step
• Basin land surface defined by physically
based hydrologic response units (HRUs)
• Model input:
Daily precipitation and max. and
min. daily air temperatures
• Model output:
Basin streamflow and water budget storage/fluxes
General Circulation Models
• Atmospheric and Oceanic (AGCM and OGCM),
sea ice, and land components
• Coupled Atmospheric and Oceanic (AOGCMs)
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC), 2007, working group 1 report, chapter 8,
table 8.1,
23 leading AOGCMs models
• Variable or finite model grid resolution (0.5 to 2.0
degrees latitude/longitude)
GCM Simulations
Data obtained through the World Climate Research
Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison
GCMs with precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum
Project
phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset
temperature available for download on a monthly time step
1. BCCR-BCM2.0 -- Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Norway
2. CSIRO-Mk3.0 – Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Org., Australia
3. CSIRO-Mk3.5 -- Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Org., Australia
4. INM-CM3.0 -- Institute for Numerical Mathematics, Russia
5. MIROC3.2(medres) -- National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan
GCM grid-cell resolutions
Special Report on Emissions
Scenarios (SRES)
20C3M -- represents the IPCC SRES climate of the 20th century
SRESA2: very heterogeneous world with high population growth, slow
economic development and slow technological change.
SRESA1: assumes a world of very rapid economic growth, a global
population that peaks in mid-century and rapid introduction of new and more
efficient technologies. A1 is divided into 3 groups:
1. fossil intensive (A1FI),
2. non-fossil energy resources (A1T)
3. balance across all sources (SRESA1B).
SRESB1: a convergent world, with the same global population as A1, but
with more rapid changes in economic structures toward a service and
information economy.
Global carbon emissions
(GtC/yr)
A1 Family
1d
B1
1
1
1
Global carbon emissions
(GtC/yr)
CO2 emissions by scenario
A2
A1B
1d
B2
scenario
Downscaling
GCM  Watershed
Spatial downscaling
Model grid point nearest the watershed centroid
GCM grid-cell resolutions
Temporal downscaling
Step 1
Current conditions defined as 1988-2000.
Future conditions defined as every 12-year period
from 2001 to 2100 (88 periods in total).
Step 2
Using monthly GCM output, 88 sets of monthly deltas
(or “climate change fields”) are computed for both
precipitation (percent) and air temperature
(degrees).
Temporal downscaling
Step 3
Daily PRMS input files (precip. and air temp.) 19882000 are adjusted by monthly deltas to create 88
12-year daily input files sets for every 12 year
period from 2001 to 2100
Step 4
PRMS simulations run for each basin:
3 emission scenarios x 5 GCMs x 88 input files = 1320
Table 1. Description of PRMS output variables used in Climate Change study.
[“inches” are depth over the basin area per daily time step; “cfs” are mean daily cubic feet per second over the daily time step. Temperatures are instantaneous value during the day. ]
PRMS statvar variable name
Units
Description from PRMS manual
basin_cfs
basin_et
basin_gwflow_cfs
basin_gwin
basin_gwstor
basin_horad
basin_imperv_evap
cfs
inches
cfs
inches
inches
langleys
inches
Streamflow from basin
Evapotranspiration on basin including et, snow evap and interception evap for timestep
Basin ground-water flow for timestep
Basin area weighted average of inflow to groundwater reservoirs.
Basin area weighted average of groundwater storage
Potential shortwave radiation for the basin centroid
Basin area-weighted average for evaporation from impervious area
basin_imperv_stor
inches
Basin area-weighted average for storage on impervious area
basin_infil
inches
Basin area-weighted average for infiltration.
basin_intcp_evap
inches
Basin area-weighted evaporation from interception.
basin_intcp_stor
basin_perv_et
basin_pk_precip
basin_potet
basin_potsw
inches
inches
inches
inches
langleys
Basin area-weighted average interception storage
Basin area weighted average of pervious area ET.
Basin area-weighted average precip added to snowpack
Basin area-weighted average of potential et
Area-weighted average of potential shortwave radiation for the basin
basin_ppt
basin_pweqv
basin_rain
basin_snow
basin_snowcov
basin_snowevap
basin_snowmelt
basin_soil_moist
basin_soil_rechr
basin_soil_to_gw
basin_sroff_cfs
basin_ssflow_cfs
basin_ssin
basin_ssr2gw
basin_ssstor
basin_storage
basin_tmax
basin_tmin
inches
inches
inches
inches
decimal fraction
inches
inches
inches
inches
inches
cfs
cfs
inches
inches
inches
inches
°F
°F
Area weighted adjusted average precip for basin.
Average snowpack water equivalent for total basin area
Area weighted adjusted average rain for basin
Area weighted adjusted average snow for basin
Average snow-covered area for total basin area.
Average evaporation and sublimation for total basin area
Average snowmelt for total basin area
Basin area weighted average for soil_moist
Basin area weighted average for soil_rechr
Basin average excess soil water that flows directly to groundwater reservoirs.
Basin surface runoff for timestep
Basin subsurface flow for timestep
Basin weighted average for inflow to subsurface reservoirs
Basin average drainage from subsurface reservoir added to groundwater
Basin weighted average for subsurface reservoir storage
Storage in basin including groundwater, subsurface storage, soil moisture, snowpack, and interception.
Basin area-weighted daily maximum temperature
Basin area-weighted daily minimum temperature
Change in 12-Year Moving Mean Daily Values of
Maximum Temperature for the 5 GCMs by Scenario
GCM Scenario:
SRESB1
•
convergent world
• global population peaks in
mid-C
• rapid changes in economic
structures toward a
service
and information economy
SRESA1B
• very rapid economic growth
• global population peaks in
mid-C
• rapid intro of efficient
technologies (fossil and
non-fossil)
SRESA2
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very heterogeneous world
high population growth
slow economic development
slow technological change
Change in Maximum Temperature
from Current (1988-1999)
Mean of 5 GCMs
by Scenario
Range in 5 GCMs
by Scenario
Maximum air temperature change (oC)
Minimum air temperature change (oC)
Percent precipitation change
Percent streamflow change
Basin mean surface runoff (cms)
Basin mean subsurface flow (cms)
Basin mean groundwater flow (cms)
Basin mean monthly streamflow (cms)
2030, 2060, and 2090
Basin mean snowpack
water equivalence (mm)
Basin mean rainfall
(mm)
Mean monthly precipitation as snowfall (%)
2030, 2060, and 2090
Basin mean potential evapotranspiration (mm)
Basin mean interception storage (mm)
Basin mean soil moisture (mm)
Basin mean groundwater storage (mm)
Sprague River climate change results
2100 projection based on five GCM A2
scenario climate inputs:
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Air temperature increase (2-3 deg. C)
Annual precipitation increase (10-15%)
Annual streamflow increase (15-20%)
Increased rainfall and decreased snowfall
Increased winter streamflows
Earlier spring flooding (March, not April)
Decreased late spring streamflows
Decreased storage in snowpack and soil
Sprague River climate change
Implications:
• Sprague River: Critical water supply (25%) to UKL
• UKL summer flow releases vital for irrigation,
fisheries, wildlife refuge needs, hydropower, etc.
• Decreased snowpack storage in headwater basins
(Sprague) could impact future UKL water allocation
decisions
Publications
Special issue of AGU Earth Interactions:
http://journals.ametsoc.org/toc/eint/0/0
USGS publication:
Markstrom, S.L., Hay, L.E., Ward-Garrison, C.D.,
Risley, J.C., Battaglin, W.A., Bjerklie, D.M., Chase,
K.J., Christiansen, D.E. Dudley, R.W., Hunt, R.J.,
Koczot, K.M., Mastin, M.C., Regan, R.S., Viger, R.J.,
Vining, K.C., and Walker, J.F., 2011, Integrated
watershed scale response to climate change for
selected basins across the United States: U.S.
Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report
2011-XXXX
Thank you