The ‘Visioning’
group.
The first reflections
Huw Williams – BBC
and
David Wood - EBU
The Visioning Project
• Can we identify technological trends
over the next 5,10, and 15 years?
• Can we identify business trends?
• Can we identify consumer trends?
• Where should public service media
providers ‘position’ themselves?
• What should they be doing?
The Future...
• The future not as alien as it might seem
•
- will still be lots of familiar touch-points
combined with some entirely new
technology
Narrative packages (i.e. Dramas,
Documentaries etc) will still be in
production the change will be in
consumption habits and type
Growth of Consumer
Electronics (CE)
Sales in
$Billion
N.B. *Forecast **Estimate
Source : Consumer Electronics Association
Future world of CE
•
•
•
Consumer marketplace in constant flux - there
will be a constant renewal of the ‘receiving
platforms’ available to end-user
Concept of continual renewal now established
with consumers (as seen in mobile phones)
Broadcasters who fail to understand this will
lose out or disappear in the next decade
Convergence or not ?
“The PC will play a key role in the home,” he says. “But we would
come across as arrogant if we said it was only the PC. I wouldn’t say
it’s the center of the digital home, but it will play a role.”
…Bill Leszinske, director of digital home marketing for Intel
“The all-in-one media entertainment console is the Holy Grail of the
consumer electronics industry. Everyone from Apple, Sony,
Microsoft and the console game companies have made forays into
this area. But thus far no one has developed a box with true
crossover appeal.”
Milan Petrovich, academic director of The Art Institute of Las Vegas’
Game Art & Design
Cocooning
• Americans’ uncertainty leads to
cocooning at home, a desire to stay
informed and connected everywhere and a
focus on friends and family.
• This means wireless, home theater and
mobile electronics should continue to
grow.
• Source: Consumer Electronics Association
Disintermediation
function - noun
etymology - from the investor's bypassing of the intermediate
institution:
the diversion of savings from accounts with low fixed interest
rates to direct investment in high-yielding instruments
1. In finance, withdrawal of funds from intermediary financial
institutions, such as banks and savings and loan associations, in
order to invest them directly.
2. Generally, removing the middleman or intermediary.
Impact on Broadcasters
Participation - Citzen journalism - London Bombings and Buncefield
fire -1000 images,video emails etc sent in for London Bombings 6500 sent in for Buncefield fire (people queuing by satellite truck
to file images)
Content Consumption in a myriad of formats - For example - PC (iMP myBBCPlayer), MP3 (Podcasting, myBBCPlayer), Mobile Devices
(as in recent O2 trial where trialists watched more video at home
rather than on the move)
Inclusivity - Providing services to the digital vanguard and digital
refuseniks at the same time
Accurate predictions cannot be
made, and different countries will
have different landscapes
The basic trend is the multiplication
of means to deliver media
New media ‘add to’ old media, but
do not ‘kill them.
Potential dominance of North
America in worldwide Internet.
But language barriers will affect
the market
The greatest trend is widespread use
of broadband, with Open Internet
gaining compared to IPTV
But broadband will not replace
broadcasting, it will share the
landscape with it.
Public service broadcasting has
the mission to be ‘universal’.
This will be an important
distinguishing feature
To do: the logic of public service in
the new media environment must be
explained more clearly to opinion
formers and the public.
To do: technological progress should
be integrated more than it is into the
strategic thinking of media providers.
Policy must have a technological
base
Thank you for your attention