TAMU-TEXAS FOREST SERVICE 301 TARROW SUITE 364 COLLEGE STATION TX 77840-7896 TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS Address Services Requested Place Mail Label Here BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 22 NO. 3 May/June 2004 NONPROFIT ORG. U.S.POSTAGE PAID COLLEGE STATION TEXAS 77842 PERMIT NO. 215 TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the “stumpage price,” for the two months listed in the report. Its purpose is to provide timely information concerning timber market conditions in order to improve decision making and foster fair transactions that benefit both buyer and seller and encourage conservation of the timber resource. Market information is particularly important to nonindustrial private landowners who are only infrequent participants in this complex market. VOLUME CONVERSION FACTORS A specific conversion factor for each sale reported by the reporters is used for price calculations when available; otherwise, the following average conversion factors are used: Sawlogs MBF-International-1/4" X 0.74 = MBF-Doyle MBF-Scribner X 0.78 = MBF-Doyle MBF-USFS Scribner X 0.814 = MBF-Doyle Pine - 8 Tons = 1 MBF-Doyle Hardwood - 9 Tons = 1 MBF-Doyle Pine Chip-N-Saw: 1 Cord = 2.625 tons WHERE DOES THE DATA COME FROM? Average stumpage prices published in this report are calculated from actual timber sales as reported by as many as 60 cooperators active in the East Texas timber market. Reporters include forest product companies, logging contractors, consulting foresters, non-industrial landowners, financial institutions, and federal agencies. Research has shown that a diversity of reporters tends to reduce bias and improve the reliability of the price estimates. Pulpwood Pine - 2.7 Tons = 1 Cord Hardwood - 2.8 Tons = 1 Cord Pine - 81 Cubic Feet = 1 Cord Hardwood - 80 Cubic Feet = 1 Cord HOW ARE AVERAGE PRICES CALCULATED? The calculation of average prices weighs each sale by the volume sold. This is done to filter out the effect that the size of the sale has on the price paid, thus providing a more consistent and meaningful average. The result is that the average price reported is the average price paid per unit of volume, NOT per the average timber sale. The price per ton for each product category is calculated from the price per ton as reported or using a specific conversion factor for each sale provided by the reporters. When a specific conversion factor for each sale is not available, an average conversion factor listed on page 8 is used instead. Readers should note that volume to weight conversions vary depending on the average diameter of the logs in the sale. Texas Timber Price Trends is a publication of the Texas Forest Service and is available at $2 per copy from your local TFS office, or through an annual mail subscription of $10 per year. To subscribe, please send your request and check or money order (payable to "Texas Forest Service") to: HOW CAN I USE THIS REPORT? This report is intended to serve only as a guide to general price levels. Individuals interested in selling timber can use this report to monitor market trends and get a general idea of what their timber is worth. However, it should not be used to judge the fair market value of a specific timber sale. The price paid for a specific stand of timber will vary considerably due to such factors as: size, species, and quality of timber; total volume and volume per acre; logging conditions; distance to the mill; end product of manufacture; and current demand and local competition for timber. Additionally, timber markets often change rapidly and therefore past prices are not necessarily a reflection of current market prices. We strongly recommend the use of a competitive bidding process as the ultimate determinant of market price for any specific tract of timber. 1 SUBSCRIPTION INFORMATION Attn: Texas Timber Price Trends Texas Forest Service 301 Tarrow Suite 364 College Station, TX 77840-7896 This publication is also available free of charge on the Texas Forest Service website: http://teaxasforestservice.tamu.edu/forest/economics/default.asp WANT TO BE A REPORTER? If you are active in the East Texas timber market, please consider becoming a cooperating price reporter. You’ll receive report forms bi-monthly with a self-return envelope. In addition, you’ll receive a complimentary subscription to the report in exchange for your price information. To sign up, contact the Texas Forest Service at the above address. The Texas Forest Service is an Equal Opportunity Employer 8 COMMENTS Texas Timber Price Trends Pine Sawlog Market Softening In Spite of Rain Market Regions Pine sawlog stumpage prices “are falling in spite of wet weather as mills have a large inventory of purchased stumpage”, commented one reporter. The average stumpage price of pine sawlogs for East Texas was $36.64/ton ($291.64/MBF), a 7% drop from the previous twomonth period. The average stumpage price of pine pulpwood for the May-June period slipped from the previous two-month period for East Texas, from $7.56/ton ($20.09/cord) to $6.94/ton ($18.59/cord). One reporter from the northeast region expected a soaring pine pulpwood market in the fall “due to very low mill inventories” and “very wet weather” in northeast region. Red River Titus Morris Franklin Bowie Cass Camp Northeast TX Region I Wood Marion Upshur Van Zandt The pine chip-n-saw stumpage price for the May-June period showed a $2/ton increase from the March-April period, to $15.69/ton ($41.96/cord) in East Texas. Harrison Gregg Smith Henderson Panola Rusk Anderson Cherokee Hardwood Market Vigorous Due to Wet Weather Shelby Leon Houston San Augustine Nacogdoches Angelina Sabine Southeast TX Grimes Tyler San Jacinto Hardin Montgomery Region II Liberty Waller Jasper Polk Walker Newton Trinity Madison Harris 7 Chambers Wet weather in the May-June period has been cited by many of our reporters as a very important factor for the hardwood market. The rainy June limited the timber supply in certain areas causing disruption of mill production. Coupled with solid market demand, hardwood sawlog prices has increased by more than $2/ton from the same period last year. The average stumpage price of hardwood sawlogs remained in the $17-$18/ton range for the March-April and May-June period. The stumpage price for hardwood pulpwood increased about $1/ton to $6.16/ton ($17.35/cord), compared to the March-April period with the rainy weather being one of the main contributing factors. House Committee Study on Timberland Tax Orange Jefferson Timberland property taxes provide a significant source of revenues for many East Texas counties and schools. On June 24, 2004, timber landowners, industry representatives, county officials, the Comptroller’s Office and the Texas Forest Service testified before the House Committee on Local Government Ways and Means, focusing on the timberland appraisal method and procedures. 2 TEXAS TIMBER PRICES FOR PROPERTY TAX APPRAISAL TEXAS ANNUAL STATEWIDE AVERAGE STUMPAGE PRICES Statewide Simple Average of Unweighted and Weighted Stumpage Prices Large Pine Sawtimber Small Pine Sawtimber Pine Pulpwood Hardwood Sawtimber Hardwood Pulpwood $/Ton $/Ton $/Ton $/Ton $/Ton 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 42.01 19.96 11.26 15.07 9.05 39.29 17.68 8.26 13.41 9.04 38.33 15.39 6.15 13.28 9.70 39.23 17.92 4.65 16.10 4.83 36.21 16.81 5.89 16.49 5.30 Starting from January 1, 2004, the new legislation (Senate Bill 1646 of 2003) requires stumpage prices to be in tons in the tax appraisal formula. Also, statewide average stumpage prices (vs. northeast and southeast) will also be required for the tax appraisal. Another important new change from this law is that small pine sawtimber (chip-n-saw) is recognized as a timber product. Data Source: Texas Forest Service, February 2004 TEXAS TIMBER PRICES FOR PROPERTY TAX APPRAISAL $/MBF-Doyle Year 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004.1 2004.2 2004.3 Sawlog $/MBF-Doyle 170.53 129.87 127.45 142.59 152.31 156.32 163.34 189.33 252.26 283.80 358.03 438.36 395.46 441.75 414.51 382.86 376.57 325.14 334.86 289.30 305.03 310.77 291.64 Pine Chip-N-Saw $/Cord 30.85 28.35 23.68 22.53 24.88 26.25 30.12 29.71 39.39 39.46 47.81 62.96 59.18 73.39 76.40 68.44 57.69 42.06 41.92 41.90 33.89 35.27 41.96 Pulpwood $/Cord 23.48 18.46 14.53 15.28 16.33 18.45 22.17 22.59 27.98 26.89 22.75 27.26 25.25 28.61 37.01 28.95 19.20 12.94 12.33 14.90 17.35 20.09 18.59 High Low Statewide W eighted Average Price 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 M/A M/J J/A S/O N/D J/F M/A M/J J/A S/O N/D J/F M/A '02 '02 '02 '02 '02 '03 '03 '03 '03 '03 '03 '04 '04 3 6 Hardwood Sawlog Pulpwood $/MBF-Doyle $/Cord 54.61 4.03 54.79 5.13 46.16 4.18 55.46 6.78 64.93 6.59 69.48 9.27 62.20 6.03 53.83 9.09 67.04 10.10 80.67 12.76 93.77 15.57 105.17 28.65 88.28 10.78 132.20 25.20 138.75 14.41 139.44 12.24 120.88 7.97 120.32 15.11 156.97 15.67 157.81 15.85 117.71 16.95 161.64 15.07 161.02 17.35 HARDWOOD SAWTIMBER $/MBF-Doyle PINE CHIP-N-SAW High Low Statewide W eihghted Average Price High Low Statewide W eighted Average Price $/Cord 70 350 60 300 50 250 N/A 40 200 150 30 100 20 50 10 0 0 M/J J/A S/O N/D J/F M/A M/J J/A S/O N/D J/F M/A M/J '02 '02 '02 '02 '03 '03 '03 '03 '03 '03 '04 '04 '04 M/J '02 J/A '02 HARDWOOD PULPWOOD $/Cord S/O N/D '02 '02 J/F '03 M/A M/J '03 '03 J/A '03 S/O N/D '03 '03 J/F '04 M/A M/J '04 '04 PINE PULPWOOD High Low Statewide W eighted Average Price High Low Statewide W eighted Average Price $/Cord 50 35 45 30 40 35 25 30 20 25 15 20 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 M/J J/A S/O N/D J/F M/A M/J J/A S/O N/D J/F M/A M/J '02 '02 '02 '02 '03 '03 '03 '03 '03 '03 '04 '04 '04 M/J J/A S/O N/D J/F M/A M/J J/A S/O N/D J/F M/A M/J '02 '02 '02 '02 '03 '03 '03 '03 '03 '03 '04 '04 '04 5 4 $/MBF ** $/Cord 17.56 15.60 17.35 ** $/Ton 7.38 6.03 6.94 ** $/Ton 16.05 15.51 15.69 $/Ton 17.41 16.65 17.24 ** $/Ton ** $/Ton 6.23 5.57 6.16 ** Pulpwood Northeast TX Southeast TX Statewide* USFS Chip-N-Saw Northeast TX Southeast TX Statewide* HARDWOOD Mixed Sawlogs Northeast TX Southeast TX Statewide* USFS Grade Sawlogs Northeast TX Pulpwood Northeast TX Southeast TX Statewide* USFS $/Ton 5.37 ** 5.38 ** $/Ton 50.15 $/Ton 16.89 19.65 17.91 ** $/Ton 18.13 13.26 13.60 $/Ton 7.86 6.41 7.56 ** $/Ton 38.21 41.33 39.27 ** $/Cord 15.04 ** 15.07 ** $/MBF 350.90 $/MBF 153.02 176.23 161.64 ** $/Cord 45.46 34.48 35.27 $/Cord 20.81 17.23 20.09 ** $/MBF 319.68 295.93 310.77 ** Average Price Last Period $/Ton 6.06 4.26 4.56 ** $/Ton ** $/Ton 15.94 11.73 15.13 ** $/Ton 14.78 13.57 13.62 $/Ton 7.42 4.34 5.29 ** $/Ton 39.05 41.24 40.22 ** $/Cord 16.66 11.82 12.60 ** $/MBF ** $/MBF 146.68 112.36 140.29 ** $/Cord 36.96 35.39 35.46 $/Cord 19.76 11.72 14.23 ** $/MBF 288.81 303.20 296.53 ** Average Price Same Period A Year Ago 71 47 118 ** ** 106 133 239 ** 3 46 49 38 22 60 ** 14 49 63 ** # of Sales Reported Ton 14,492 1,742 16,235 ** Ton ** Ton 9,571 2,767 12,338 ** Ton 113,449 227,163 340,611 Ton 156,363 75,993 232,356 ** Ton 116,313 114,423 230,735 ** Cord 5,145 622 5,767 ** MBF ** MBF 1,013 307 1,321 ** Cord 42,040 85,305 127,345 Cord 58,560 28,141 86,701 ** MBF 13,078 15,910 28,988 ** Total Volume 6-Aug-04 Volume 22, No. 3 1. Stumpage price statistics included gatewood sales. Stumpage prices from the gatewood sales were estimated by substracting cut and haul costs, other expenses and profits if any provided by the reporters. 2. Price is calculated from a specific conversion factor reported for each sale if available; otherwise, the average conversion factors listed on page 8 are used. MBF = Thousand Board Feet. The DOYLE LOG SCALE is used for board foot measurements. * Statewide data excludes U.S. Forest Service sales. ** Insufficient sales to report price statistics (less than three reported sales). $/MBF 164.41 149.86 161.02 ** $/Cord 43.32 41.29 41.96 $/Cord 19.70 16.27 18.59 ** $/Ton 32.77 40.57 36.64 ** $/MBF 291.45 291.79 291.64 ** Average Price Sawlogs Northeast TX Southeast TX Statewide* USFS PINE Product/Region May/June 2004 STUMPAGE PRICE TRENDS IN TEXAS For timber prices used for timberland property taxation, please see page 3. The prices in this table do not represent market price for a specific tract of timber. Market price for any specific tract of timber may vary considerably due to variation in tract size, timber quality, species, total volume and volume per acre, logging conditions, distance to the mill, utilization, current demand and local competition for timber, and rapidly changing timber market. HARDWOOD SAWTIMBER $/MBF-Doyle PINE CHIP-N-SAW High Low Statewide W eihghted Average Price High Low Statewide W eighted Average Price $/Cord 70 350 60 300 50 250 N/A 40 200 150 30 100 20 50 10 0 0 M/J J/A S/O N/D J/F M/A M/J J/A S/O N/D J/F M/A M/J '02 '02 '02 '02 '03 '03 '03 '03 '03 '03 '04 '04 '04 M/J '02 J/A '02 HARDWOOD PULPWOOD $/Cord S/O N/D '02 '02 J/F '03 M/A M/J '03 '03 J/A '03 S/O N/D '03 '03 J/F '04 M/A M/J '04 '04 PINE PULPWOOD High Low Statewide W eighted Average Price High Low Statewide W eighted Average Price $/Cord 50 35 45 30 40 35 25 30 20 25 15 20 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 M/J J/A S/O N/D J/F M/A M/J J/A S/O N/D J/F M/A M/J '02 '02 '02 '02 '03 '03 '03 '03 '03 '03 '04 '04 '04 M/J J/A S/O N/D J/F M/A M/J J/A S/O N/D J/F M/A M/J '02 '02 '02 '02 '03 '03 '03 '03 '03 '03 '04 '04 '04 5 4 TEXAS TIMBER PRICES FOR PROPERTY TAX APPRAISAL TEXAS ANNUAL STATEWIDE AVERAGE STUMPAGE PRICES Statewide Simple Average of Unweighted and Weighted Stumpage Prices Large Pine Sawtimber Small Pine Sawtimber Pine Pulpwood Hardwood Sawtimber Hardwood Pulpwood $/Ton $/Ton $/Ton $/Ton $/Ton 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 42.01 19.96 11.26 15.07 9.05 39.29 17.68 8.26 13.41 9.04 38.33 15.39 6.15 13.28 9.70 39.23 17.92 4.65 16.10 4.83 36.21 16.81 5.89 16.49 5.30 Starting from January 1, 2004, the new legislation (Senate Bill 1646 of 2003) requires stumpage prices to be in tons in the tax appraisal formula. Also, statewide average stumpage prices (vs. northeast and southeast) will also be required for the tax appraisal. Another important new change from this law is that small pine sawtimber (chip-n-saw) is recognized as a timber product. Data Source: Texas Forest Service, February 2004 TEXAS TIMBER PRICES FOR PROPERTY TAX APPRAISAL $/MBF-Doyle Year 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004.1 2004.2 2004.3 Sawlog $/MBF-Doyle 170.53 129.87 127.45 142.59 152.31 156.32 163.34 189.33 252.26 283.80 358.03 438.36 395.46 441.75 414.51 382.86 376.57 325.14 334.86 289.30 305.03 310.77 291.64 Pine Chip-N-Saw $/Cord 30.85 28.35 23.68 22.53 24.88 26.25 30.12 29.71 39.39 39.46 47.81 62.96 59.18 73.39 76.40 68.44 57.69 42.06 41.92 41.90 33.89 35.27 41.96 Pulpwood $/Cord 23.48 18.46 14.53 15.28 16.33 18.45 22.17 22.59 27.98 26.89 22.75 27.26 25.25 28.61 37.01 28.95 19.20 12.94 12.33 14.90 17.35 20.09 18.59 High Low Statewide W eighted Average Price 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 M/A M/J J/A S/O N/D J/F M/A M/J J/A S/O N/D J/F M/A '02 '02 '02 '02 '02 '03 '03 '03 '03 '03 '03 '04 '04 3 6 Hardwood Sawlog Pulpwood $/MBF-Doyle $/Cord 54.61 4.03 54.79 5.13 46.16 4.18 55.46 6.78 64.93 6.59 69.48 9.27 62.20 6.03 53.83 9.09 67.04 10.10 80.67 12.76 93.77 15.57 105.17 28.65 88.28 10.78 132.20 25.20 138.75 14.41 139.44 12.24 120.88 7.97 120.32 15.11 156.97 15.67 157.81 15.85 117.71 16.95 161.64 15.07 161.02 17.35 COMMENTS Texas Timber Price Trends Pine Sawlog Market Softening In Spite of Rain Market Regions Pine sawlog stumpage prices “are falling in spite of wet weather as mills have a large inventory of purchased stumpage”, commented one reporter. The average stumpage price of pine sawlogs for East Texas was $36.64/ton ($291.64/MBF), a 7% drop from the previous twomonth period. The average stumpage price of pine pulpwood for the May-June period slipped from the previous two-month period for East Texas, from $7.56/ton ($20.09/cord) to $6.94/ton ($18.59/cord). One reporter from the northeast region expected a soaring pine pulpwood market in the fall “due to very low mill inventories” and “very wet weather” in northeast region. Red River Titus Morris Franklin Bowie Cass Camp Northeast TX Region I Wood Marion Upshur Van Zandt The pine chip-n-saw stumpage price for the May-June period showed a $2/ton increase from the March-April period, to $15.69/ton ($41.96/cord) in East Texas. Harrison Gregg Smith Henderson Panola Rusk Anderson Cherokee Hardwood Market Vigorous Due to Wet Weather Shelby Leon Houston San Augustine Nacogdoches Angelina Sabine Southeast TX Grimes Tyler San Jacinto Hardin Montgomery Region II Liberty Waller Jasper Polk Walker Newton Trinity Madison Harris 7 Chambers Wet weather in the May-June period has been cited by many of our reporters as a very important factor for the hardwood market. The rainy June limited the timber supply in certain areas causing disruption of mill production. Coupled with solid market demand, hardwood sawlog prices has increased by more than $2/ton from the same period last year. The average stumpage price of hardwood sawlogs remained in the $17-$18/ton range for the March-April and May-June period. The stumpage price for hardwood pulpwood increased about $1/ton to $6.16/ton ($17.35/cord), compared to the March-April period with the rainy weather being one of the main contributing factors. House Committee Study on Timberland Tax Orange Jefferson Timberland property taxes provide a significant source of revenues for many East Texas counties and schools. On June 24, 2004, timber landowners, industry representatives, county officials, the Comptroller’s Office and the Texas Forest Service testified before the House Committee on Local Government Ways and Means, focusing on the timberland appraisal method and procedures. 2 TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the “stumpage price,” for the two months listed in the report. Its purpose is to provide timely information concerning timber market conditions in order to improve decision making and foster fair transactions that benefit both buyer and seller and encourage conservation of the timber resource. Market information is particularly important to nonindustrial private landowners who are only infrequent participants in this complex market. VOLUME CONVERSION FACTORS A specific conversion factor for each sale reported by the reporters is used for price calculations when available; otherwise, the following average conversion factors are used: Sawlogs MBF-International-1/4" X 0.74 = MBF-Doyle MBF-Scribner X 0.78 = MBF-Doyle MBF-USFS Scribner X 0.814 = MBF-Doyle Pine - 8 Tons = 1 MBF-Doyle Hardwood - 9 Tons = 1 MBF-Doyle Pine Chip-N-Saw: 1 Cord = 2.625 tons WHERE DOES THE DATA COME FROM? Average stumpage prices published in this report are calculated from actual timber sales as reported by as many as 60 cooperators active in the East Texas timber market. Reporters include forest product companies, logging contractors, consulting foresters, non-industrial landowners, financial institutions, and federal agencies. Research has shown that a diversity of reporters tends to reduce bias and improve the reliability of the price estimates. Pulpwood Pine - 2.7 Tons = 1 Cord Hardwood - 2.8 Tons = 1 Cord Pine - 81 Cubic Feet = 1 Cord Hardwood - 80 Cubic Feet = 1 Cord HOW ARE AVERAGE PRICES CALCULATED? The calculation of average prices weighs each sale by the volume sold. This is done to filter out the effect that the size of the sale has on the price paid, thus providing a more consistent and meaningful average. The result is that the average price reported is the average price paid per unit of volume, NOT per the average timber sale. The price per ton for each product category is calculated from the price per ton as reported or using a specific conversion factor for each sale provided by the reporters. When a specific conversion factor for each sale is not available, an average conversion factor listed on page 8 is used instead. Readers should note that volume to weight conversions vary depending on the average diameter of the logs in the sale. Texas Timber Price Trends is a publication of the Texas Forest Service and is available at $2 per copy from your local TFS office, or through an annual mail subscription of $10 per year. To subscribe, please send your request and check or money order (payable to "Texas Forest Service") to: HOW CAN I USE THIS REPORT? This report is intended to serve only as a guide to general price levels. Individuals interested in selling timber can use this report to monitor market trends and get a general idea of what their timber is worth. However, it should not be used to judge the fair market value of a specific timber sale. The price paid for a specific stand of timber will vary considerably due to such factors as: size, species, and quality of timber; total volume and volume per acre; logging conditions; distance to the mill; end product of manufacture; and current demand and local competition for timber. Additionally, timber markets often change rapidly and therefore past prices are not necessarily a reflection of current market prices. We strongly recommend the use of a competitive bidding process as the ultimate determinant of market price for any specific tract of timber. 1 SUBSCRIPTION INFORMATION Attn: Texas Timber Price Trends Texas Forest Service 301 Tarrow Suite 364 College Station, TX 77840-7896 This publication is also available free of charge on the Texas Forest Service website: http://teaxasforestservice.tamu.edu/forest/economics/default.asp WANT TO BE A REPORTER? If you are active in the East Texas timber market, please consider becoming a cooperating price reporter. You’ll receive report forms bi-monthly with a self-return envelope. In addition, you’ll receive a complimentary subscription to the report in exchange for your price information. To sign up, contact the Texas Forest Service at the above address. The Texas Forest Service is an Equal Opportunity Employer 8