TAMU-TEXAS FOREST SERVICE 301 TARROW SUITE 364 COLLEGE STATION TX 77840-7896 TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS Address Services Requested Place Mail Label Here BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 22 NO. 1 January/February 2004 NONPROFIT ORG. U.S.POSTAGE PAID COLLEGE STATION TEXAS 77842 PERMIT NO. 215 TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the “stumpage price,” for the two months listed in the report. Its purpose is to provide timely information concerning timber market conditions in order to improve decision making and foster fair transactions that benefit both buyer and seller and encourage conservation of the timber resource. Market information is particularly important to nonindustrial private landowners who are only infrequent participants in this complex market. VOLUME CONVERSION FACTORS A specific conversion factor for each sale reported by the reporters is used for price calculations when available; otherwise, the following average conversion factors are used: Sawlogs MBF-International-1/4" X 0.74 = MBF-Doyle MBF-Scribner X 0.78 = MBF-Doyle MBF-USFS Scribner X 0.814 = MBF-Doyle Pine - 8 Tons = 1 MBF-Doyle Hardwood - 9 Tons = 1 MBF-Doyle Pine Chip-N-Saw: 1 Cord = 2.625 tons WHERE DOES THE DATA COME FROM? Average stumpage prices published in this report are calculated from actual timber sales as reported by as many as 60 cooperators active in the East Texas timber market. Reporters include forest product companies, logging contractors, consulting foresters, non-industrial landowners, financial institutions, and federal agencies. Research has shown that a diversity of reporters tends to reduce bias and improve the reliability of the price estimates. Pulpwood Pine - 2.7 Tons = 1 Cord Hardwood - 2.8 Tons = 1 Cord Pine - 81 Cubic Feet = 1 Cord Hardwood - 80 Cubic Feet = 1 Cord HOW ARE AVERAGE PRICES CALCULATED? The calculation of average prices weighs each sale by the volume sold. This is done to filter out the effect that the size of the sale has on the price paid, thus providing a more consistent and meaningful average. The result is that the average price reported is the average price paid per unit of volume, NOT per the average timber sale. The price per ton for each product category is calculated from the price per ton as reported or using a specific conversion factor for each sale provided by the reporters. When a specific conversion factor for each sale is not available, an average conversion factor listed on page 8 is used instead. Readers should note that volume to weight conversions vary depending on the average diameter of the logs in the sale. Texas Timber Price Trends is a publication of the Texas Forest Service and is available at $2 per copy from your local TFS office, or through an annual mail subscription of $10 per year. To subscribe, please send your request and check or money order (payable to "Texas Forest Service") to: HOW CAN I USE THIS REPORT? This report is intended to serve only as a guide to general price levels. Individuals interested in selling timber can use this report to monitor market trends and get a general idea of what their timber is worth. However, it should not be used to judge the fair market value of a specific timber sale. The price paid for a specific stand of timber will vary considerably due to such factors as: size, species, and quality of timber; total volume and volume per acre; logging conditions; distance to the mill; end product of manufacture; and current demand and local competition for timber. Additionally, timber markets often change rapidly and therefore past prices are not necessarily a reflection of current market prices. We strongly recommend the use of a competitive bidding process as the ultimate determinant of market price for any specific tract of timber. 1 SUBSCRIPTION INFORMATION Attn: Texas Timber Price Trends Texas Forest Service 301 Tarrow Suite 364 College Station, TX 77840-7896 This publication is also available free of charge on the Texas Forest Service website: http://teaxasforestservice.tamu.edu/forest/economics/default.asp WANT TO BE A REPORTER? If you are active in the East Texas timber market, please consider becoming a cooperating price reporter. You’ll receive report forms bi-monthly with a self-return envelope. In addition, you’ll receive a complimentary subscription to the report in exchange for your price information. To sign up, contact the Texas Forest Service at the above address. The Texas Forest Service is an Equal Opportunity Employer 8 COMMENTS Texas Timber Price Trends Prices Declined In Spite of Rains Market Regions The average stumpage prices of all products moved lower in the Jan./Feb. period, compared to the previous two-month period. Pine sawlog price went down slightly by less than $1/ton for the East Texas region as a whole, to $38.19/ton ($305.03/MBF). But prices went up for better sites with wet weather access. A year ago, the average stumpage price for pine sawlogs was $4/ton higher. Red River Stumpage price for pine pulpwood in East Texas for the Jan./Feb. period declined slightly from the previous two-month period, to $6.43/ ton ($17.35/cord). “Mill winter inventories (were) holding (well). Wood flow (was) good in spite of heavier than average rains”, commented a mill that is a large purchaser of pine pulpwood. Delivered prices were also falling. In northeast Texas, future pulpwood prices are expected to be stronger because of the increased demand from a new OSB plant in Broken Bow, OK, opening in 2004. The $130 million dollar plant, owned by J. M. Huber Corporation, will have 160 employees and produce 600 million square feet of panels annually. Titus Morris Franklin Bowie Cass Camp Northeast TX Region I Wood Marion Upshur Van Zandt Harrison Gregg Smith Henderson Panola Rusk Anderson Cherokee Pine chip-n-saw stumpage price averaged $13.03/ton ($33.89/cord) for the Jan./Feb. period, a $5.99/ton decrease from the previous bimonthly period. This is $1.81/ton lower than the same period a year ago. All of the 39 sales were reported from the southeast Texas. Shelby Leon Houston San Augustine Nacogdoches Angelina Sabine Southeast TX Grimes Tyler San Jacinto Hardin Montgomery Region II Liberty Waller Jasper Polk Walker Newton Trinity Madison Harris 7 Chambers Orange Jefferson Pine Poles delivered price averaged $80-85/ton, reported by a utility pole user. Poles are valuable timber products at premium prices in the current market. The average stumpage price of mixed hardwood sawtimber dropped slightly to $14.14/ton ($117.71/MBF) from $15.51/ton ($143.02/MBF) in the previous period, a 8.8% decline. Hardwood pulpwood stumpage price also has declined. Compared to the previous bi-monthly period, the average stumpage price dropped by $0.44/ton, a 6.9% decrease. But it was still $0.76/ton higher than the same period a year ago. Lumber prices rose in the first quarter of 2004 to $348/MBF (2x4 #2), which was $48/MBF higher than the same period of last year. Continued good demand for building materials in the Jan./Feb. period has contributed to the higher lumber prices. Stumpage prices, however, have remained weak. 2 TEXAS TIMBER PRICES FOR PROPERTY TAX APPRAISAL TEXAS ANNUAL STATEWIDE AVERAGE STUMPAGE PRICES Statewide Simple Average of Unweighted and Weighted Stumpage Prices Large Pine Sawtimber Small Pine Sawtimber Pine Pulpwood Hardwood Sawtimber Hardwood Pulpwood $/Ton $/Ton $/Ton $/Ton $/Ton 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 42.01 19.96 11.26 15.07 9.05 39.29 17.68 8.26 13.41 9.04 38.33 15.39 6.15 13.28 9.70 39.23 17.92 4.65 16.10 4.83 36.21 16.81 5.89 16.49 5.30 Starting from January 1, 2004, the new legislation (Senate Bill 1646 of 2003) requires stumpage prices to be in tons in the tax appraisal formula. Also, statewide average stumpage prices (vs. northeast and southeast) will also be required for the tax appraisal. Another important new change from this law is that small pine sawtimber (chip-n-saw) is recognized as a timber product. Data Source: Texas Forest Service, February 2004 TEXAS TIMBER PRICES FOR PROPERTY TAX APPRAISAL $/MBF-Doyle Year 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004.1 Sawlog $/MBF-Doyle 170.53 129.87 127.45 142.59 152.31 156.32 163.34 189.33 252.26 283.80 358.03 438.36 395.46 441.75 414.51 382.86 376.57 325.14 334.86 289.30 305.03 Pine Chip-N-Saw $/Cord 30.85 28.35 23.68 22.53 24.88 26.25 30.12 29.71 39.39 39.46 47.81 62.96 59.18 73.39 76.40 68.44 57.69 42.06 41.92 41.90 33.89 Pulpwood $/Cord 23.48 18.46 14.53 15.28 16.33 18.45 22.17 22.59 27.98 26.89 22.75 27.26 25.25 28.61 37.01 28.95 19.20 12.94 12.33 14.90 17.35 High Low Statewide W eighted Average Price 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 J/F M/A M/J J/A S/O N/D J/F M/A M/J J/A S/O N/D J/F '02 '02 '02 '02 '02 '02 '03 '03 '03 '03 '03 '03 '04 3 6 Hardwood Sawlog Pulpwood $/MBF-Doyle $/Cord 54.61 4.03 54.79 5.13 46.16 4.18 55.46 6.78 64.93 6.59 69.48 9.27 62.20 6.03 53.83 9.09 67.04 10.10 80.67 12.76 93.77 15.57 105.17 28.65 88.28 10.78 132.20 25.20 138.75 14.41 139.44 12.24 120.88 7.97 120.32 15.11 156.97 15.67 157.81 15.85 117.71 16.95 HARDWOOD SAWTIMBER $/MBF-Doyle PINE CHIP-N-SAW High Low Statewide W eihghted Average Price 350 70 300 60 250 50 200 40 150 30 100 20 50 10 0 0 J/F M/A M/J J/A S/O N/D J/F M/A M/J J/A S/O N/D J/F '02 '02 '02 '02 '02 '02 '03 '03 '03 '03 '03 '03 '04 N/A J/F '02 M/A '02 HARDWOOD PULPWOOD $/Cord High Low Statewide W eighted Average Price $/Cord M/J '02 J/A '02 S/O N/D '02 '02 J/F '03 M/A '03 M/J '03 J/A '03 S/O N/D '03 '03 PINE PULPWOOD High Low Statewide W eighted Average Price High Low Statewide W eighted Average Price $/Cord 50 40 45 35 40 30 35 25 30 20 25 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 J/F M/A M/J J/A S/O N/D J/F M/A M/J J/A S/O N/D J/F '02 '02 '02 '02 '02 '02 '03 '03 '03 '03 '03 '03 '04 J/F M/A M/J J/A S/O N/D J/F M/A M/J J/A S/O N/D J/F '02 '02 '02 '02 '02 '02 '03 '03 '03 '03 '03 '03 '04 5 4 J/F '04 $/Ton 6.79 6.02 6.43 ** $/Ton ** 13.03 13.03 $/Ton 14.29 14.04 14.14 ** $/Ton 6.35 4.14 5.98 ** Pulpwood Northeast TX Southeast TX Statewide* USFS Chip-N-Saw Northeast TX Southeast TX Statewide* HARDWOOD Sawlogs Northeast TX Southeast TX Statewide* USFS Pulpwood Northeast TX Southeast TX Statewide* USFS $/Cord 17.96 11.90 16.95 ** $/MBF 122.65 114.78 117.71 ** $/Cord ** 33.89 33.89 $/Cord 18.31 16.24 17.35 ** $/MBF 308.28 302.60 305.03 ** $/Ton 6.09 6.56 6.42 ** $/Ton 15.11 16.14 15.51 ** $/Ton 20.58 18.65 19.02 $/Ton 8.30 5.10 6.55 ** $/Ton 44.71 35.67 39.34 ** $/Cord 17.68 18.42 18.21 ** $/MBF 141.47 145.32 143.02 ** $/Cord 53.52 50.33 50.95 $/Cord 22.15 13.77 17.60 ** $/MBF 311.88 275.62 291.24 ** Average Price Last Period $/Ton 5.66 ** 5.22 ** $/Ton 13.72 ** 13.74 ** $/Ton 16.21 14.79 14.84 $/Ton 6.41 5.34 5.98 ** $/Ton 41.43 42.99 42.23 ** $/Cord 15.94 ** 14.42 ** $/MBF 127.64 ** 127.77 ** $/Cord 41.69 37.74 37.88 $/Cord 17.50 14.26 16.21 ** $/MBF 312.31 318.47 315.52 ** Average Price Same Period A Year Ago 6 7 13 0 4 7 11 0 0 39 39 36 22 58 0 11 46 57 0 # of Sales Reported Ton 10,383 2,100 12,483 ** Ton 743 1,199 1,942 ** Ton ** 80,920 80,920 Ton 251,690 217,696 469,386 ** Ton 83,870 92,089 175,960 ** Cord 3,674 731 4,405 ** MBF 87 147 233 ** Cord ** 31,123 31,123 Cord 93,413 80,652 174,065 ** MBF 9,441 12,588 22,028 ** Total Volume 31-Mar-04 Volume 22, No. 1 1. Stumpage price statistics included gatewood sales. Stumpage prices from the gatewood sales were estimated by substracting cut and haul costs, other expenses and profits if any provided by the reporters. 2. Price is calculated from a specific conversion factor reported for each sale if available; otherwise, the average conversion factors listed on page 8 are used. MBF = Thousand Board Feet. The DOYLE LOG SCALE is used for board foot measurements. * Statewide data excludes U.S. Forest Service sales. ** Insufficient sales to report price statistics (less than three reported sales). $/Ton 34.70 41.36 38.19 ** Average Price Sawlogs Northeast TX Southeast TX Statewide* USFS PINE Product/Region January/February 2004 STUMPAGE PRICE TRENDS IN TEXAS For timber prices used for timberland property taxation, please see page 3. The prices in this table do not represent market price for a specific tract of timber. Market price for any specific tract of timber may vary considerably due to variation in tract size, timber quality, species, total volume and volume per acre, logging conditions, distance to the mill, utilization, current demand and local competition for timber, and rapidly changing timber market. HARDWOOD SAWTIMBER $/MBF-Doyle PINE CHIP-N-SAW High Low Statewide W eihghted Average Price 350 70 300 60 250 50 200 40 150 30 100 20 50 10 0 0 J/F M/A M/J J/A S/O N/D J/F M/A M/J J/A S/O N/D J/F '02 '02 '02 '02 '02 '02 '03 '03 '03 '03 '03 '03 '04 N/A J/F '02 M/A '02 HARDWOOD PULPWOOD $/Cord High Low Statewide W eighted Average Price $/Cord M/J '02 J/A '02 S/O N/D '02 '02 J/F '03 M/A '03 M/J '03 J/A '03 S/O N/D '03 '03 PINE PULPWOOD High Low Statewide W eighted Average Price High Low Statewide W eighted Average Price $/Cord 50 40 45 35 40 30 35 25 30 20 25 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 J/F M/A M/J J/A S/O N/D J/F M/A M/J J/A S/O N/D J/F '02 '02 '02 '02 '02 '02 '03 '03 '03 '03 '03 '03 '04 J/F M/A M/J J/A S/O N/D J/F M/A M/J J/A S/O N/D J/F '02 '02 '02 '02 '02 '02 '03 '03 '03 '03 '03 '03 '04 5 4 J/F '04 TEXAS TIMBER PRICES FOR PROPERTY TAX APPRAISAL TEXAS ANNUAL STATEWIDE AVERAGE STUMPAGE PRICES Statewide Simple Average of Unweighted and Weighted Stumpage Prices Large Pine Sawtimber Small Pine Sawtimber Pine Pulpwood Hardwood Sawtimber Hardwood Pulpwood $/Ton $/Ton $/Ton $/Ton $/Ton 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 42.01 19.96 11.26 15.07 9.05 39.29 17.68 8.26 13.41 9.04 38.33 15.39 6.15 13.28 9.70 39.23 17.92 4.65 16.10 4.83 36.21 16.81 5.89 16.49 5.30 Starting from January 1, 2004, the new legislation (Senate Bill 1646 of 2003) requires stumpage prices to be in tons in the tax appraisal formula. Also, statewide average stumpage prices (vs. northeast and southeast) will also be required for the tax appraisal. Another important new change from this law is that small pine sawtimber (chip-n-saw) is recognized as a timber product. Data Source: Texas Forest Service, February 2004 TEXAS TIMBER PRICES FOR PROPERTY TAX APPRAISAL $/MBF-Doyle Year 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004.1 Sawlog $/MBF-Doyle 170.53 129.87 127.45 142.59 152.31 156.32 163.34 189.33 252.26 283.80 358.03 438.36 395.46 441.75 414.51 382.86 376.57 325.14 334.86 289.30 305.03 Pine Chip-N-Saw $/Cord 30.85 28.35 23.68 22.53 24.88 26.25 30.12 29.71 39.39 39.46 47.81 62.96 59.18 73.39 76.40 68.44 57.69 42.06 41.92 41.90 33.89 Pulpwood $/Cord 23.48 18.46 14.53 15.28 16.33 18.45 22.17 22.59 27.98 26.89 22.75 27.26 25.25 28.61 37.01 28.95 19.20 12.94 12.33 14.90 17.35 High Low Statewide W eighted Average Price 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 J/F M/A M/J J/A S/O N/D J/F M/A M/J J/A S/O N/D J/F '02 '02 '02 '02 '02 '02 '03 '03 '03 '03 '03 '03 '04 3 6 Hardwood Sawlog Pulpwood $/MBF-Doyle $/Cord 54.61 4.03 54.79 5.13 46.16 4.18 55.46 6.78 64.93 6.59 69.48 9.27 62.20 6.03 53.83 9.09 67.04 10.10 80.67 12.76 93.77 15.57 105.17 28.65 88.28 10.78 132.20 25.20 138.75 14.41 139.44 12.24 120.88 7.97 120.32 15.11 156.97 15.67 157.81 15.85 117.71 16.95 COMMENTS Texas Timber Price Trends Prices Declined In Spite of Rains Market Regions The average stumpage prices of all products moved lower in the Jan./Feb. period, compared to the previous two-month period. Pine sawlog price went down slightly by less than $1/ton for the East Texas region as a whole, to $38.19/ton ($305.03/MBF). But prices went up for better sites with wet weather access. A year ago, the average stumpage price for pine sawlogs was $4/ton higher. Red River Stumpage price for pine pulpwood in East Texas for the Jan./Feb. period declined slightly from the previous two-month period, to $6.43/ ton ($17.35/cord). “Mill winter inventories (were) holding (well). Wood flow (was) good in spite of heavier than average rains”, commented a mill that is a large purchaser of pine pulpwood. Delivered prices were also falling. In northeast Texas, future pulpwood prices are expected to be stronger because of the increased demand from a new OSB plant in Broken Bow, OK, opening in 2004. The $130 million dollar plant, owned by J. M. Huber Corporation, will have 160 employees and produce 600 million square feet of panels annually. Titus Morris Franklin Bowie Cass Camp Northeast TX Region I Wood Marion Upshur Van Zandt Harrison Gregg Smith Henderson Panola Rusk Anderson Cherokee Pine chip-n-saw stumpage price averaged $13.03/ton ($33.89/cord) for the Jan./Feb. period, a $5.99/ton decrease from the previous bimonthly period. This is $1.81/ton lower than the same period a year ago. All of the 39 sales were reported from the southeast Texas. Shelby Leon Houston San Augustine Nacogdoches Angelina Sabine Southeast TX Grimes Tyler San Jacinto Hardin Montgomery Region II Liberty Waller Jasper Polk Walker Newton Trinity Madison Harris 7 Chambers Orange Jefferson Pine Poles delivered price averaged $80-85/ton, reported by a utility pole user. Poles are valuable timber products at premium prices in the current market. The average stumpage price of mixed hardwood sawtimber dropped slightly to $14.14/ton ($117.71/MBF) from $15.51/ton ($143.02/MBF) in the previous period, a 8.8% decline. Hardwood pulpwood stumpage price also has declined. Compared to the previous bi-monthly period, the average stumpage price dropped by $0.44/ton, a 6.9% decrease. But it was still $0.76/ton higher than the same period a year ago. Lumber prices rose in the first quarter of 2004 to $348/MBF (2x4 #2), which was $48/MBF higher than the same period of last year. Continued good demand for building materials in the Jan./Feb. period has contributed to the higher lumber prices. Stumpage prices, however, have remained weak. 2 TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the “stumpage price,” for the two months listed in the report. Its purpose is to provide timely information concerning timber market conditions in order to improve decision making and foster fair transactions that benefit both buyer and seller and encourage conservation of the timber resource. Market information is particularly important to nonindustrial private landowners who are only infrequent participants in this complex market. VOLUME CONVERSION FACTORS A specific conversion factor for each sale reported by the reporters is used for price calculations when available; otherwise, the following average conversion factors are used: Sawlogs MBF-International-1/4" X 0.74 = MBF-Doyle MBF-Scribner X 0.78 = MBF-Doyle MBF-USFS Scribner X 0.814 = MBF-Doyle Pine - 8 Tons = 1 MBF-Doyle Hardwood - 9 Tons = 1 MBF-Doyle Pine Chip-N-Saw: 1 Cord = 2.625 tons WHERE DOES THE DATA COME FROM? Average stumpage prices published in this report are calculated from actual timber sales as reported by as many as 60 cooperators active in the East Texas timber market. Reporters include forest product companies, logging contractors, consulting foresters, non-industrial landowners, financial institutions, and federal agencies. Research has shown that a diversity of reporters tends to reduce bias and improve the reliability of the price estimates. Pulpwood Pine - 2.7 Tons = 1 Cord Hardwood - 2.8 Tons = 1 Cord Pine - 81 Cubic Feet = 1 Cord Hardwood - 80 Cubic Feet = 1 Cord HOW ARE AVERAGE PRICES CALCULATED? The calculation of average prices weighs each sale by the volume sold. This is done to filter out the effect that the size of the sale has on the price paid, thus providing a more consistent and meaningful average. The result is that the average price reported is the average price paid per unit of volume, NOT per the average timber sale. The price per ton for each product category is calculated from the price per ton as reported or using a specific conversion factor for each sale provided by the reporters. When a specific conversion factor for each sale is not available, an average conversion factor listed on page 8 is used instead. Readers should note that volume to weight conversions vary depending on the average diameter of the logs in the sale. Texas Timber Price Trends is a publication of the Texas Forest Service and is available at $2 per copy from your local TFS office, or through an annual mail subscription of $10 per year. To subscribe, please send your request and check or money order (payable to "Texas Forest Service") to: HOW CAN I USE THIS REPORT? This report is intended to serve only as a guide to general price levels. Individuals interested in selling timber can use this report to monitor market trends and get a general idea of what their timber is worth. However, it should not be used to judge the fair market value of a specific timber sale. The price paid for a specific stand of timber will vary considerably due to such factors as: size, species, and quality of timber; total volume and volume per acre; logging conditions; distance to the mill; end product of manufacture; and current demand and local competition for timber. Additionally, timber markets often change rapidly and therefore past prices are not necessarily a reflection of current market prices. We strongly recommend the use of a competitive bidding process as the ultimate determinant of market price for any specific tract of timber. 1 SUBSCRIPTION INFORMATION Attn: Texas Timber Price Trends Texas Forest Service 301 Tarrow Suite 364 College Station, TX 77840-7896 This publication is also available free of charge on the Texas Forest Service website: http://teaxasforestservice.tamu.edu/forest/economics/default.asp WANT TO BE A REPORTER? If you are active in the East Texas timber market, please consider becoming a cooperating price reporter. You’ll receive report forms bi-monthly with a self-return envelope. In addition, you’ll receive a complimentary subscription to the report in exchange for your price information. To sign up, contact the Texas Forest Service at the above address. The Texas Forest Service is an Equal Opportunity Employer 8