Recent Developments in the Use of
Satellite Observations at ECMWF
European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts
Tony McNally
ITSC-XV
October 2006
Acknowledgements
Satellite Section ECMWF
ITSC October 2006
Slide 1
OUTLINE
z Upgrades to the operational forecasting / assimilation system
z New satellite data availability
z Environmental Monitoring (GEMS)
z Developments in Re-Analysis (ERA-40 > interim > ERA-65)
ITSC October 2006
Slide 2
Upgrades to the operational
forecasting / assimilation
system
ITSC October 2006
Slide 3
Upgrades to the operational
forecasting / assimilation
system
z system version 29R2 (28 June 2005)
z system version 30R1 (1 Feb 2006)
z system version 31R1 (12 Sep 2006)
ITSC October 2006
Slide 4
System version 29R2 (28 June 2005)
z Initial 1D-Var+4D-Var use of SSM/I rain affected radiances
z extended AIRS assimilation
z Introduction of Meteosat-8 (MSG) winds
z New Jb stats (from recent ensemble of data assimilation)
z Modifications to humidity analysis (less increments in areas with
high CAPE, reduced spinup)
z Modifications to convection scheme (bugfix for negative mass
flux, implicit momentum+tracer transport)
z Revision of the initial perturbations for the EPS
z Introduction of SMHI Baltic sea ice
ITSC October 2006
Slide 5
System version 29R2 (28 June 2005)
… rainy radiance assimilation …
4DVar wind and TCWV
increments from SSM/I
Typhoon Matsa
(04/08/2005 00 UTC)
ECMWF Analysis VT:Thursday 4 August 2005 00UTC Surface: mean sea level pressure
ECMWF Analysis VT:Thursday 4 August 2005 00UTC Surface: **total column water vapour/50hPa v-velocity
L
H
20.0m/s
20
08
10
15
L
H
10
5
08
10
L
2
L
1
H
10
02
996
0.5
02
10
L
-0.5
996
L
H
-1
2
100
L
-2
-5
L
-10
8
100
-15
H
-20
…see poster by Alan Geer on rain assimilation…
L
H
ITSC October 2006
Slide 6
System version 29R2 (28 June 2005)
… extended AIRS assimilation …
z Warmest FOV selection
z new surface emissivity model
z intelligent thinning of AIRS data
Tropospheric /
surface sensing
channel usage
increased
Stratospheric
channels usage
unchanged
z new observation errors (down to 0.4K)
z VIS / NIR cloud information
z VARBC / bias technical changes
Channel wavelength
…see talk by Andrew Collard on AIRS assimilation…
ITSC October 2006
Slide 7
System version 30R1 (01 Feb 2006)
z T799 horizontal resolution (12min time step)
z 4D-Var increments at T255 (30min time step)
z Vertical resolution increased to 91 levels
z Model top raised to 0.01hPa
z Grid-point humidity and ozone in 4D-Var
z Changes to the wave model
- Resolution increased from 0.5° to 0.36°
- Use of Jason altimeter wave height data and
ENVISAT ASAR spectra in the wave model
assimilation. ERS-2 SAR spectra no longer
assimilated.
ITSC October 2006
Slide 8
System version 30R1 (01 Feb 2006)
T511
T799
…a new profile dataset will be available from this model…
ITSC October 2006
Slide 9
System version 30R1 (01 Feb 2006)
L60 vs L91
…a new profile dataset will be available from this model…
ITSC October 2006
Slide 10
System version 31R1 (12 Sep 2006)
z Introduction of adaptive bias correction VarBC
z Improved QC of SSM/I rain affected radiances
z Revised use of low level aircraft observations
z Modifications to humidity
z Modifications to convection scheme
ITSC October 2006
Slide 11
System version 31R1 (12 Sep 2006)
…introduction of adaptive bias correction VarBC …
ITSC October 2006
Slide 12
System version 31R1 (12 Sep 2006)
…introduction of adaptive bias correction VarBC …
VarBC
Control
…see talk by Thomas Auligne on VarBC…
ITSC October 2006
Slide 13
New Satellite data
availability
ITSC October 2006
Slide 14
New Satellite data availability
z NOAA-18 (HIRS, AMSUA, MHS)
z MTSAT
z DMSP-F16 / AQUA (SSM/IS, AMSRE)
z GPS (CHAMP, COSMIC, GRACE)
z METEOSAT-9, GOES-11
ITSC October 2006
Slide 15
NOAA-18 HIRS / AMSUA / MHS
NOAA-18 HIRS channel 4
NOAA-18 AMSUA channel 5
Monitoring of the NOAA-18 MHS show that the radiances are less noisy than
those from the AMSU-B (confirming improved instrument design for METOP)
NOAA-16 AMSUB channel 5
ITSC October 2006
NOAA-18 MHS channel 5
Slide 16
MTSAT - AMVs
WIND SPEED
20
0
40
0
20
0
SH
510
60
p
lat: -90 - -20
lon: 60 - -40
p :
0 - 400
5
20
0
20
40
FG
40
60
80
60
80
5
5
0
0
20
0
20
40
FG
40
FG
OVERALL NEUTRAL impact.
Only significantly positive result:
NH 200hPa – day 3.
80
60
80
0
0
0
20
40
60
80
0
20
FG
40
60
80
FG
FG
Mean difference / (100% - mean score)
Z anomaly correlation
scores:
60
Control-experiment Z 500hPa
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
-0.05
-0.1
0
1
2
3
4
5
days
6
7
8
9
10
Mean difference / (100% - mean score)
0
ITSC October 2006
0
10
30
510
0
80
30
5
30710
1550
0
OBS IR (1953)
5
5
20 0
40
10
OBS IR (8726)
40 0
lat: -20 - 20
lon: 60 - -40
p :
0 - 400
60
75
OBS IR (4751)
60 0
10
Tropics
80
20 90
60 - -40
0 - 400
5
Active
data
lat:
lon:
p :
wind speed
p
NH
80 0
1-31 Aug 2005
Slide 17
Control-experiment Z 200hPa
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
-0.05
-0.1
0
1
2
3
4
5
days
6
7
8
9
10
SSM/IS and AMSR-E
…see talk by Niels Bormann on MW assimilation…
ITSC October 2006
Slide 18
GPS RO (CHAMP)
MEAN TEMPERTAURE INCREMENTS
IMPROVED FIT TO RADIOSONDE T DATA
…see poster by Niels Bormann on MIPAS assimilation…
ITSC October 2006
Slide 19
The impact of
Satellite data
ITSC October 2006
Slide 20
Data from twentynine sources used
daily !
Large increase in number
of data used daily
ITSC October 2006
Slide 21
Observation data count for one 12h 4D-Var cycle
0900-2100UTC 26 March 2006
z Synop:
Screened
389.000
(0.49%)
z Synop:
362.000
(0.46%)
z Aircraft:
z Dribu:
20.000
(0.03%)
z Temp:
135.000
z Pilot:
z Aircraft:
z AMV’s:
60.000
(1.84%)
179.000
(5.50%)
z Dribu:
5.600
(0.17%)
(0.17%)
z Temp:
67.000
(2.06%)
108.000
(0.14%)
z Pilot:
48.000
(1.48%)
2.811.000
(3.56%)
z AMV’s:
127.000
(3.90%)
(94.81%)
z Radiance data: 2.646.000
(81.34%)
z Radiance data: 74.825.000
z Scat:
269.000
TOTAL:
78.918.000
(0.34%)
z Scat:
122.000
(3.75%)
(100.00%)
TOTAL:
3.253.000
(100.00%)
99% of screened data is from satellites
ITSC October 2006
Assimilated
89% of assimilated data from satellites
Slide 22
Gap reduction between S.Hem and N.Hem:
- satellite data signature
Courtesy A. Simmons
ITSC October 2006
Slide 23
IMPACT STUDIES at ECMWF
…SAT vs NOSAT
NH Z500
SH Z500
…see talk by Graeme Kelly on impact studies…
ITSC October 2006
Slide 24
Environmental
monitoring
(GEMS)
ITSC October 2006
Slide 25
The GEMS project has started
z Funded by European Commission under Framework
Programme 6 (one of the GMES IPs)
z ECMWF and 25 partner institutes in Europe
z Deliverables:
- An operational capability for global analyses and forecasts
of greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O), reactive gases (O3,
NO2,SO2, CO, HCHO) and aerosols (5 categories initially)
- A reanalysis of the recent period and validation against in
situ measurements
- Use as much satellite and in situ data as possible
- Provide boundary conditions for regional air quality
models and organize a European-size inter-comparison
between regional air quality models
ITSC October 2006
Slide 26
Zonal mean CO2 distributions
100
380
1000
60 S
369
60 N
The effect of assimilating AIRS radiances is mainly to increase CO2
mixing ratios in the upper troposphere.
The lower troposphere is largely unaffected, because vertical error
correlations are narrow and the adjoint of convection is still missing.
ITSC October 2006
Slide 27
CO2 Comparison with flight data from
Japan Air Lines
Flight data kindly provided by H. Matsueda, MRI/JMA
ITSC October 2006
Slide 28
Analysis departures for MODIS Aerosol Optical
Depth at 0.55 microns
90°N
60°N
Analysis
departures are
observations
minus model
analysis.
30°N
0°
30°S
60°S
90°S
90°W
-0.5
-0.4
ITSC October 2006
-0.3
-0.2
60°W
30°W
-0.1
0°
0
30°E
0.1
60°E
0.2
Slide 29
90°E
0.3
0.4
0.5
ECMWF
Re-analysis
(ERA)
ITSC October 2006
Slide 30
ECMWF plans for reanalysis
zThe interim reanalysis
- Has started with T255L60(91), 4D-Var and cycle 31r1
- will run from 1989 onwards, and be continued in close to real time
- will use mostly same pre-2002 data as ERA-40, but will include
ƒ reprocessed winds from EUMETSAT
ƒ reprocessed ERS altimeter data
ƒ GOME profile data from RAL
ƒ improved radiosonde bias corrections
- Will use VarBC
zEuropean Regional Reanalysis (EURRA)
- potential for a European regional reanalysis project (EURRA) is being
explored with NMSs and EEA
zA new major reanalysis (ERA-65 or -75) in due course
- funding has to be secured
ITSC October 2006
Slide 31
Trend and variability in lower stratospheric
temperature
MSU-4 data analyzed by Mears et al. (2003)
ERA-40 equivalent from Ben Santer
Linear trend:
ITSC October 2006
MSU-4 - 0.39OC/decade
ERA-40 - 0.30OC/decade
NCEP
- 0.82OC/decade
Slide 32
Using 4DVAR in the next reanalysis
Improved anomaly
correlation of 500hPa
height, averaged for
12UTC forecasts
from 1 January to 31
December 1989
Northern hemisphere
ERA-new
ERA-40
Operations
Southern hemisphere
ITSC October 2006
Slide 33
Day
END
ITSC October 2006
Slide 34
ITSC October 2006
Slide 35