Mountain Hydrology of the Semi-Arid Wester n U.S. Roger C. Bales1, Jeff Dozier2, Noah P. Molotch3, Thomas H. Painter4, and Robert Rice1 INTRODUCTION Hydrologic feedbacks in mountainous regions control the availability of water across the landscape, influence the distribution of vegetation, dominate biogeochemical fluxes, and contribute to global and regional climate variability. Improving knowledge of the processes controlling these feedbacks will promote clearer understanding of Earth’s water, energy and biogeochemical cycles; and will enable sounder management of increasingly stressed natural resources. In the mountains of the semi-arid western U.S. (Figure 1), the sharp wet-dry seasonal transitions, steep gradients in temperature and precipitation with elevation, and high interannual variability make the hydrologic feedbacks quite different from those in lower-elevation or humid regions. Making more informed decisions to manage water resources drives the need for better hydrologic information. Mountain river basins, their associated reservoirs, and their underlying aquifers sustain the water demand of over 60 million people in the western U.S. Water allocations in the West’s supply-limited systems rely on complex decision-support mechanisms that account for water laws and markets, interstate compacts, international treaties, flood control, and agricultural, hydropower and municipal demands. Improvements in predicting the magnitude and timing of runoff— i.e. narrowing the considerable uncertainty in runoff estimates—directly benefit regional economies. Management of forest and other mountain resources also drives the need for new hydrologic knowledge. Mountainous regions in North America contribute significantly to the continent’s carbon budget. Montane forest dynamics rely on the spatial and temporal variability of hydrologic variables, especially the variability in snow water equivalent and snowmelt [Nagler and Rott, 2000; Schimel et al., 2002]. In addition, the albedo of mountain snow cover and in turn global warming are sensitive to absorptive impurities such as dust and soot. Hansen and Nazarenko [2004] have asserted that about a quarter of the observed increase in global temperature over the last century owes to absorption by black carbon in snow. School of Engineering, University of California, Merced Donald Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara 3 Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder 4 National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado, Boulder 1 2 1 Snow in mountains of the semi-arid West is the fundamental water source for the region’s hydrology, with downstream hydrologic processes (e.g. groundwater recharge) and interactions with ecosystems being controlled by processes at higher elevations. A lack of process understanding and a reliance on sparsely distributed observation networks together limit our ability to simulate hydrologic processes in mountainous regions and to make accurate predictions. As examples, we lack an adequate description of factors controlling the partitioning of snowmelt into runoff vs. evaporation, and we lack strategies to accurately measure the spatial variability of snow cover, particularly in spring after most of the snow disappears from the lower elevations. Soil moisture in the mountains likewise lacks strategies for adequate measurement. The volume of mountain-block and mountainfront recharge to groundwater and how recharge patterns respond to climate variability are poorly known across the mountainous West. Though topographically complex, the region’s thin soils, areas of either no forest or relatively homogeneous forest cover, and snowmelt-driven water cycle offer opportunities for simplifying the study of hydrologic processes. While research needs are many, three hydrologic issues represent pressing questions in mountains of the semi-arid West: 1. Despite the hydrologic importance of mountainous regions, the processes controlling energy and water fluxes within and out from these systems are not well understood. 2. There exists a need to realize, at various spatial and temporal scales, the feedback systems between hydrological fluxes and biogeochemical and ecological processes. 3. Lack of integrated measurement strategies and data/information systems for mountain hydrologic data hamper improvements to understanding the aforementioned processes. ENERGY AND WATER FLUXES In mountainous regions, the temporal and spatial distribution of hydrometeorological conditions at and near Earth’s surface controls the equilibrium state of water, dictating the distribution of water inputs to and outputs from the system as well as the residence times and pathways of water within it. Climate in the semi-arid West exhibits considerable interannual variability, and the Issue 1. Despite the hydrologic importance of mountainous regions, the processes controlling energy and water fluxes within and out from these systems are not well understood. temporal and spatial distributions of precipitation, snowmelt, soil moisture, evapotranspiration and other hydrologic processes are sensitive to this variability. Sensitivity to climate change varies across 2 gradients of physiography (e.g. elevation, vegetative community structure, and latitude) but the drivers and degree of this sensitivity in different mountainous landscapes are not fully comprehended. Energy Fluxes The spatial properties of basin-wide energy fluxes affect the way we interpret and forecast fluxes of water across the varied mountain landscapes. Our understanding of land-surface/atmosphere energy exchange in mountains is particularly limited by their physiographic heterogeneity, which results in complex mosaics of conditions that control the transfer of latent, sensible and radiative fluxes. On the other hand, this land surface mosaic equilibrates with the boundary layer, which tends to homogenize fluxes over larger, topographically established scales. Further motivating the study of these processes is recent evidence that these fluxes respond to climate change in unknown ways. For example, average temperature has increased in California over the past 50 years, and snow water equivalent (SWE) has decreased at lower elevations, with trends at higher elevations unclear [Howat and Tulaczyk, in press]. Energy fluxes are closely linked with the water cycle. Perhaps the most important linkage is that of snowmelt (Figure 2). Hydrologic and land surface models are increasingly including mass balance and physically based snowmelt models [e.g., Cline et al., 1998]. Solar radiation. Above timberline the spatial and temporal distribution of net solar radiation largely controls the timing and magnitude of snowmelt [Marks and Dozier, 1992]. The most important variables contributing to modeling the spatial and temporal variability in net radiation in seasonally snow-covered systems are surface albedo and atmospheric attenuation. Snow albedo affects melt rates more on high-elevation south-facing slopes than on lower elevation or north facing slopes [Molotch et al., 2004a]. Anthropogenic increases in melt result from aerosols darkening snow [Hansen and Nazarenko, 2004]. Explicit measurements of incident and reflected solar radiation are needed across a range of physiographic conditions, particularly those that alter the distribution of snow properties and vegetation—elevation, latitude, orientation, and exposure to wind. The spatial and temporal distribution of atmospheric attenuation is critical to the accuracy of geometric terrain reflectance models used to distribute shortwave radiation in mountainous terrain [Dozier and Frew, 1990]. The lack of atmospheric observations inhibits the use of these terrain models over large regions. Thus, there is a need to further understand the processes that control the distribution of aerosols and clouds, particularly their relationship to synoptic-scale meteorology and to aerosol sources. 3 Longwave radiation. Radiative fluxes often dominate the energy balance in mountain environments and in boreal forests [Blöschl, 1999; Link and Marks, 1999]. For the longwave radiation emitted by the atmosphere, we currently lack the necessary observations to calculate the relationships between canopy structure and the distribution of longwave radiation beneath it. Observations of canopy structure (e.g. using airborne or future spaceborne LIDAR) and their relationship with radiative fluxes are vital for understanding potential changes to feedbacks associated with anthropogenic and natural disturbance, including fire and its suppression, forest thinning, and logging. Moreover, increased humidity and air temperature, associated with climate change, may cause greater longwave emission from the atmosphere to the land-surface. Sensible and latent heat. Latent heat fluxes are potentially altered by increased water vapor in the atmosphere associated with an intensification of the hydrologic cycle. The observed decrease in April 1 SWE at the lower elevations in the western US over the last 50 years [Mote, 2003] possibly results from warmer air temperatures enhancing turbulent fluxes, resulting in earlier snowmelt, or changes in precipitation type or quantity causing decreased accumulation. In the coming century, model projections indicate that temperature increases may cause the April 1 snowpack to decline by as much as one-third in the Sierra Nevada [Knowles and Cayan, 2002]. Long-term observations of sensible and latent heat fluxes across gradients of elevation and latitude are needed for the identification of areas that are currently most sensitive to climate change. Wind. The least-understood component of turbulent fluxes is the spatial and temporal distribution of wind fields [Liston, 2004]. Inhibiting understanding is a lack of observations on wind fields at various scales in mountainous environments, and how Research questions related to energy balance − How to represent & scale basin-wide energy balance in complex, heterogeneous terrain from sparse point measurements? − How this scaling varies across climate/vegetation zones within a mountain range? − How to blend satellite, surface & boundary-layer measurements for scaling energy balance? − What determines seasonal (transient) snowlines? topography and vegetation affect the wind. The ability to physically represent topography and vegetation in modeling wind fields is limited by a lack of information on canopy microstructure, which is sensitive to climate variability and forest management practices. Warmer air temperatures allow vegetation to colonize new areas at the higher elevations and higher latitudes. Fire suppression results in increased canopy densities and provides enhanced shelter from air turbulence, whereas forest thinning and clear cutting expose the underlying to wind. Observation strategies that evaluate the sensitivity and distribution of wind fields across gradients of topography and forest succession are needed. 4 Water Fluxes into and out of the Mountain System Precipitation. Direct measurements of precipitation in mountainous environments are particularly difficult, given that so much of it falls as snow and that precipitation gauges catch snow poorly. Although it is possible to infer precipitation rates from snowpack observations, direct observations of precipitation are needed to explore changes in precipitation type associated with climate variability. Detailed observations of precipitation type and intensity, as well as the environmental conditions controlling them, are needed across latitudes, vegetation zones and climate regimes. Elevation gradients need to be studied independent of latitudinal gradients. That is, rain/snow regimes vary along both gradients, giving different patterns for total precipitation versus precipitation as snow. For example, annual precipitation in the Sierra Nevada decreases from north to south, but annual snow accumulation is greater in the higher elevations in the south. The elevation at which precipitation falls as snow (i.e. the “snowline”) varies from storm to storm and often varies on an hourly basis during an individual storm. Thus, there are temporal as well as spatial controls on precipitation type. These factors impact hydrologic processes occurring across times scales from days to weeks as rain-on-snow events can result in catastrophic floods and dramatically reduce snowpack water volume storage for spring and summer runoff. Starting January 1, 1997, for example, much of the Sierra Ne- Precipitation questions — research agenda − Meteorological & climatic controls on precipitation in mountains? − Controls on & patterns of rain vs snow? − How large-scale circulation & mesoscale forcing influence the distribution & timing of precipitation? − What mechanisms generate interannual variability in precipitation? − Importance of rain shadow, both seasonally & storm to storm? vada experienced huge floods associated with a warm storm on an early-season snowpack [National Weather Service, 1997]. Snow distribution. The spatial distribution of SWE is a particularly important state variable, as snow provides the majority of the water input to the system and dramatically influences energy exchange at the land surface. A pragmatic approach to estimating SWE distribution is needed at resolutions that reduce subgrid heterogeneity to a level where the majority of the variability in the system can be modeled explicitly [Blöschl, 1999]. Small-scale studies have shown that regression-tree models can successfully analyze the nonlinear relationships between snow accumulation and topographic variables [Balk and Elder, 2000; Erxleben et al., 2002; Winstral et al., 2002] and therefore can be used to determine how independent variables control the continuum of snow distribution over a given area. Novel techniques for scaling these relationships and parameterizations of hydrologic state variables to larger basins are needed, particularly as technological advances in observation capabilities emerge. 5 A concept for addressing these scaling issues is the representative elementary area (REA) at which a model element (or sub-catchment) contains a sufficient sample of the continuum of hillslope and soil characteristics such that the pattern of those characteristics can be ignored [Wood et al., 1990]. Observations are needed at sub-REA scales to identify this continuum [Beven, 1995]. The coarse resolution of remotely sensed SWE estimates [Chang et al., 1991; Chang and Rango, 2000] cannot resolve small-scale SWE variability, so it is smoothed out across the grid element or pixel scale . Hence, evaluation of these remotely sensed estimates has relied on the ability of ground observations to represent the average conditions of subgrid element variability. Ground observations of SWE have been used in conjunction with remotely sensed snow covered area data to estimate the spatial distribution of SWE across mountainous watersheds [Fassnacht et al., 2003]. Remaining challenges include systematic, accurate estimation of snow under clouds [Molotch et al., 2004b], canopy corrections for snow-covered area measurement, the design of adequate ground networks to merge with remotely sensed information, and the merging of energy balance and snow-cover information to estimate the rate at which the snow melts. Evapotranspiration. In semi-arid mountainous regions the greatest flux of water out of the system is evapotranspiration. There is a need to understand the physiographic controls on how vegetation responds to energy fluxes and water stress, across a range of vegetation types and climate regimes. Current estimates of evapotranspiration at the regional scale are based on observing changes in soil moisture from passive microwave data [Njoku et al., 2003] or by modeling the evolution of surface energy and water exchanges and soil moisture. The coupling of energy and water flux with plant physiologic measurements provides a link for using remote sensing to move from the plot to basin scale. Particularly important is the emphasis on transition zones, interfaces, and the effects of climatic extremes in driving changes in ecological functioning. A lack of ground-based observations of water vapor flux across these transitional zones hinders linking scales between point and remotely sensed observations. Observational clusters, designed to characterize the continuum of evapotranspiration at sub-pixel scales, should be extended to basin and mountain range scales through blending with remotely sensed data. Mountain front recharge. Output of water from the mountain system is a vital input to valley aquifers. In the Middle Rio Grande, this recharge is on the same order of magnitude (60-90 m3/yr) as percolation from the Rio Grande [Anderholm, 1999]. Valley aquifer systems across the basin-andrange system of the southwestern U.S. similarly depend on runoff from the higher elevations. Het- 6 erogeneous water inputs, topography, soil properties, bedrock permeability and vegetation in the mountains largely control deep infiltration and hence aquifer recharge rates. The relationship between these hydrologic fluxes and the ecosystem controls on deep infiltration is still unknown. Given that groundwater models assume that valley aquifer recharge occurs at the mountain front, we lack a functional understanding of how the interactions vary across the heterogeneous mountain system. Runoff. Empirical seasonal runoff forecasts (water supply outlooks) in snow-dominated systems are based on historical relationships between point observations of snow and observed runoff. These empirical models do best near mean conditions but perform poorly during climatic conditions that are not well represented in the historical record, which are more likely to occur if there are trends in the climate. Thus, there is a need to incorporate physical processes into these operational models. Snow-area depletion curves have been used to empirically represent SWE in the snowmelt runoff model (SRM) [Rango, 1992]. Subsequent inclusion of a radiation module improves the SRM by explicitly representing radiative fluxes, and inclusion of remotely sensed snow albedo further improves it [Molotch et al., 2004a]. There are concurrent efforts to explicitly represent the entire system physically within landsurface schemes. In these heterogeneous systems land-surface schemes often misrepresent the partitioning of precipitation and snowmelt runoff into the various hydrologic pathways, leading to errors in the timing and magnitude of runoff. Other modeling approaches such as the Modular Modeling System [Leavesley et al., 1996] allow users to select modules to simulate individual processes. Such a modular approach is critical for assessing algorithm accuracy and therefore, for evaluating our understanding of the physical processes represented within models. Flow Paths and Residence Times within the Mountain System In semi-arid regions, the partitioning of precipitation and snowmelt into surface runoff, infiltration and potential recharge is highly variable in space and time. Understanding the processes that control partitioning into the various hydrohydrologic pathways is critical for realizing linkages between hydrological, biogeochemical and ecological functions. Effort needs to be devoted toward understanding the relationships between Partitioning snowmelt & rainfall on the ground: research questions − How physical & ecological factors together determine the large variability in runoff vs. infiltration across a mountain range? − How to accurately estimate sublimation? − Relative contributions of evaporation & transpiration to total ET in mountain ecosystems? − How to predict hydrologic response of perturbed systems, e.g. by fire? 7 physical and hydraulic properties of soils and hydrologic processes (rainfall, infiltration, and runoff) in upland areas. Developing relationships between measurable soil properties and vegetation characteristics and hydrologic processes is essential for computational scaling up from point, plot, and headwaters to basin scale. Quantification of the relationships between rainfall or snowmelt intensity, ecological site characteristics, and the resulting hydrologic processes (i.e. infiltration and runoff) needs to be conducted through long-term field research in key soil-vegetation complexes within the semi-arid mountainous west. For hydrologic purposes, we need to understand the partitioning of snowmelt and rain into sublimation, runoff, evapotranspiration and infiltration. The conceptual models for alpine and subalpine hydrology remain crude, and few measurements of the partitioning of snowmelt and rain at a range of scales. Hydrologic processes important at one scale may not necessarily be important at larger scales. At the point scale, surface energy exchange and storage of melt water within the snowpack dominate snowmelt and runoff. At larger spatial scales, lateral movement of water through the snowpack influenced by topography and stream network affects the timing of runoff. At longer temporal scales, storage and routing will integrate short term variations in runoff caused by variations in melt rates. Models developed based on an understanding of snowpack processes at the point scale will allow point-scale processes to dominate when integrated to the basin scale. Therefore, different approaches must be used to gain an understanding of snowmelt runoff at point scales than those used to gain an understanding at the basin scale (Figure 3). Snowmelt infiltration into the substrate, which depends on water content, strongly controls the partitioning into runoff, storage, and recharge. In Norway, more than 50% of groundwater recharge occurs during snowmelt [Jørgensen and Østmo, 1990]. The spatial and Research questions: scaling − How to blend remotely sensed & groundbased observations with integrated modeling schemes? − What ground-based measurement strategy to validate new remote sensing products? − What role do snowlines play in the geomorphology, ecology, aqueous geochemistry & hydrology of mountain catchments? temporal variability of infiltration during snowmelt show localized infiltration. Future work to understand the partitioning of snowmelt into runoff, sublimation, infiltration, evapotranspiration should use combinations of nested stream gauging and snowpack internal mass redistribution studies [Kattelmann and Dozier, 1999; Marsh, 1999]. 8 Spatially explicit models of snowpack evolution and snowmelt [Kirnbauer et al., 1994; Cline et al., 1998; Luce et al., 1998; 1999; Colee et al., 2000] require field data and remotely sensed imagery for initialization, calibration, and validation. Field measurements are sparse or infrequent and subject to disagreeable conditions or avalanche danger in many environments. Subject to availability of instrument duty cycles and constrained by cloud cover, remote sensing techniques can regularly provide maps of snow properties for the model domain at a range of resolutions. Mountain block recharge affects downstream hydrologic systems, including streamflow amounts and timing, mountain-front recharge, and spring discharge. Observation of this variability, using boreholes, in mountainous environments has not been conducted. Boreholes would also enable determining residence times and storage in the system. At the regional scale, fracturing and permeability at depth is not extremely variable, enabling borehole observations to be scaled up. Representation of these mountain-block processes at the mountain front will dramatically improve our understanding of water flow paths in mountainous systems, and how upgradient recharge sustains downgradient baseflow. Such efforts are also critical for coupling physically based models surface- and groundwater models. ECOLOGICAL AND BIOGEOCHEMICAL FEEDBACKS Fluxes of carbon and nitrogen in mountain systems have both local and regional importance. For example, modeling suggests that in the Western U.S., net ecosystem exchange (NEE) is greatest in the mountains [Schimel et al., 2002]. However, very few data are available to evaluate fluxes. NEE is concentrated at high elevation, where the terrain is usually rugged, whereas flux towers, the most widely used method for estimating these fluxes, are generally in flat ar- Issue 2. There exists a need to realize, at various spatial and temporal scales, the feedback systems between hydrological fluxes and biogeochemical and ecological processes. eas. Mountain catchments are receiving increasing fluxes of nitrogen other pollutants, through both wet and dry deposition. Some are experiencing nitrogen saturation, yet the water-nutrient feedbacks are understood in only selected locations. A compounding factor is the large organic nitrogen pool in catchment litter, so the pool in soils is quite large relative to fluxes in atmospheric deposition. Hydrologic Perturbations Climate variability. Given the variable frequency and magnitude of extreme events like droughts, flooding, severe storms and possible future shifts, hydrologic perturbations will alter biogeochemical 9 cycles and the responses of ecosystems. In addition, the changing seasonal precipitation patterns coupled with the hydrologic perturbations will result in alterations to the landscape as terrestrial and aquatic systems adapt or change. As snowmelt patterns shift and runoff occurs earlier, or if winter rain becomes more common, one potential impact is a greater likelihood of floods [Miller et al., 2003]. An additional consequence of the shift is longer summer droughts, stressing the terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem and the water supply, affecting the distribution and abundance of plants and animals [Stewart et al., 2004]. Regional climate models are unable to capture and predict extreme seasonal climate events due to the coarse resolutions Flow paths & residence times − Do subsurface flow paths & residence times increase with scale, from headwater catchment a river basin? − How does baseflow respond to climate variability across the various geologic & vegetation regimes in a mountain range? − Principal geologic factors controlling groundwater storage, discharge to streams & chemical composition in mountains? in the models. Improvements in the seasonal-to-interannual predictive capabilities of climate models will come in part from more detailed understanding of the physical processes, resulting in more realistic representation at the subgrid scales, specifically the subsurface processes [Gordon et al., 2004]. Improvements in the predictability of the hydrologic processes in climate modeling and accurate inputs of the necessary boundary conditions such as soil moisture, groundwater, snow, and vegetation will decrease errors and lead to more detailed understanding and predictions of summer and fall stream baseflow. Effects on ecosystems. Shifts in the mountain hydrologic cycle will affect terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Besides earlier and more intense winter streamflow and persistent drought conditions, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems will respond to decreased baseflow. In addition, the potential exists for an increase in sediment transport and deposition resulting in altered river systems, with such adverse effects of reducing the useful life of reservoirs and impacting fisheries. Further, such intensification of the hydrologic cycle can contribute to change in land geomorphology as the warm temperature coupled with more precipitation falling as rain and earlier snowmelt increase the likelihood of soil erosion and landslides contributing to an increase in downstream sediment transport. However, ecosystems models based on climate variability have limited predictability given the uncertainty of the interaction between hydrology and increased temperatures, changes in precipitation, alterations to the composition of vegetation, and increase in photosynthesis brought about by increased concentrations of atmospheric CO2 [Gordon et al., 2004]. 10 We will need to improve the predictive capabilities of climate models with regards to hydrologic perturbations and the response of ecosystems to abrupt changes to the hydrologic cycle. Such an effort can only be accomplished by better parameterization and calibration of existing climate models, supported by new measurements and expanded knowledge of physical processes. Long-term observations of the hydrologic cycle are critical, including remote sensing of land processes, installation of flux towers for monitoring energy and mass exchange, as well as the development of additional paleoclimate records, including sediment cores from alpine lakes and reservoirs [Melack et al., 1997]. Of importance is the ability to scale up from point measurements along elevational and longitudinal transects to provide detailed observations on the spatial and temporal characteristics of the hydrologic cycle. Ecological and Biogeochemical Perturbations Ecological perturbations. Considerable ecological issues remain unresolved when considering the impacts of climate, fire, land use, and vegetation changes to the mountains of the semi-arid West. For example, greater carbon sequestration occurs as reforestation increases and better land management practices are employed. However, logging can increase the release of CO2 to the atmosphere. Knowledge of post-fire hydrology is critical, including the effect of fire on infiltration rates, erosion and water quality. Forest studies indicate that the timing and volume streamflow and soil recharge are altered with a decrease in forest canopies [Ffolliott et al., 1989]. In addition long-term studies on forest growth and succession could provide valuable insight on the water balance, were it measured. Increased nitrogen deposition from anthropogenic sources is perhaps damaging aquatic resources in high-elevation catchments [Williams and Tonnessen, 2000]. Such effects are evident in water quality, aquatic organisms and other indicators of the degradation of terrestrial and aquatic resources. Further, phosphorous increases in high alpine lakes as a result of the transport of soils and dust to the catchments have been reported. The combined increases in nitrogen and phosphorous alter aquatic ecosystems [Sickman et al., 2003a]. However, there are still unresolved drometeorological linkages variables between (e.g. hysnow cover) and heterotrophic CO2 efflux, the Carbon & nitrogen cycling research questions − What is the importance of seasonal transitions to carbon & nitrogen biogeochemistry at the scale of a mountain range, i.e. across elevational & longitudinal gradients? − How do changing seasonal transitions affect carbon & nitrogen cycling in & export from aquatic ecosystems? − How do they differ in rain vs. snow dominated areas? 11 variability in CO2 uptake by vegetation, and the efflux of nitrogen from mountainous basins [Baron and Campbell, 1997]. Current understanding of the biogeochemical responses in ecosystems and feedbacks are particularly limited by the temporal and spatial variability in precipitation patterns, which affect deposition patterns of carbon and nitrogen and the release of these nutrients into the ecosystem. To resolve these issues of variability, a network designed to measure and capture spatial and temporal variability is required. Biogeochemical perturbations. Innovative measurements at the process level are needed to understand the biogeochemical evolution of snowmelt and surface waters in seasonally snow-covered catchments. Intensive and extensive research conducted at the catchment scale in the last decade shows that our understanding of the biogeochemical processes that determine surface water quality in alpine basins is not sufficiently mature to model and predict how biogeochemical transformations and surface water quality will change in response to climatic and anthropogenic changes in energy, water, and chemicals [Sickman et al., 2003b; Meixner et al., 2004]. Linkages between climate change, historic and current landuse, forest dynamics, and resource management practices impact the biogeochemical cycles of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorous, and sulfur. Research has indicated a rapid rise in nutrient concentrations, driven by climate and anthropogenic changes [Williams and Tonnessen, 2000]. It is clear that anthropogenic perturbations interact with the atmosphere resulting in widespread deposition, resulting in increases in vegetation and plant growth, but other factors such as soil acidification, increased ozone concentrations, loss of soil fertility through base cation loss, and their interaction with plant diseases and pests all reduce plant productivity. High-elevation ecosystems in the western U.S. have seen increases in the atmospheric deposition of nitrogen from the transport of nitrogen and carbon from lower to higher elevations resulting from fires [Takemoto et al., 2001]. The alpine ecosystems’ transition from nitrogen-limited to saturated has changed water chemistry [Baron and Campbell, 1997]. With this evidence of increasing nitrogen to the system, knowledge of the hydrological and biological processes controlling the fluxes of nitrogen is relatively unknown. The cycling of nutrients into the system is strongly linked to the hydrologic cycle, creating a strong seasonality (e.g. wet to dry) to the influx of carbon. Given the sensitivity of alpine regions, climatic perturbations in the form of warming and changes in precipitation 12 patterns could eliminate the abrupt seasonality in mountainous environments, resulting in changes to the biogeochemical cycle. Seasonal snow cover influences the retention and release of nitrogen during the seasonal transition from cold to warm. The seasonal release of nitrogen through an ionic pulse at the onset of snowmelt is a combination of both snowpack and soil nitrate. However, current research suggests that the nitrate pulse is not simply a flushing of accumulated nitrate from the soils or snowpack, but one of sequestration and release of nitrate from microbial activity [Sickman et al., 2003b]. Further, research on the microbial activity suggest that immobilization of nitrogen in the soil is controlled by the development of the seasonal snow cover and hence controls the release of nitrogen to surface waters [Brooks and Williams, 1999]. These studies indicate that nitrate concentrations are controlled by the seasonal snow cover and suggest that climate perturbations may directly control the availability of nitrogen with possible effects to the terrestrial ecosystem such as longer growing seasons in alpine terrain. Thus allowing and supporting higher rates of nitrogen retention as well as decreasing the aquatic export and redistribution of nutrients. As the climate changes and precipitation patterns change the coupling of the carbon, nitrogen, and hydrologic cycle are likely to be affected as an increased presence of cold to warm seasonal transitions are replaced with wet to dry transitions. More atmospheric deposition of pollutants are being deposited on sensitive alpine catchments. In order to protect the sensitive alpine ecosystems, indices of critical loads of pollutants need to be established [Williams and Tonnessen, 2000]. Understanding of the spatial and temporal distribution of pollutants is vital to the ecological health of the environment. Research programs require long term monitoring and since pollutants are spatially and temporally distributed, mountain range scale observations need to be initiated and expanded. Therefore, ground based surface observations, taking advantage of both latitudinal and elevational gradients are necessary to capture the temporal and spatial heterogeneity [Bytnerowicz et al., 2002]. Since montane catchments are sensitive to changes from natural and anthropogenic perturbations and the linkage to biogeochemical cycles, i monitoring and feedback response to perturbations must be studied in relation to land use change, nutrient inputs from atmospheric deposition, and resource management practices. Reliable long-term measurements are essential to examine and evaluate environmental changes and impacts to the system. For example, range-wide residence time flow path measurements have the capability of indicating terrestrial disturbances in nutrient concentrations. By measuring residence times on a broad basis throughout several basins, geochemical 13 composition can be identified with the age of the water. In addition, biogeochemistry can provide insight into fine and long term temporal scales on events. At the fine temporal scale carbon, nitrogen, phosphorous, and sulfur can be measured during short lived high impact events (e.g. floods). Longer time scales can be addressed by paleolimnological investigation in low elevation reservoirs and high elevation lakes and coupled with tree-ring studies that document fire frequency, drought, and flooding). INTEGRATED MEASUREMENT STRATEGIES Ground-based observations are heavily used within operational water resource management, yet they leave much of the hydrologic cycle unmeasured. Streamflow is Issue 3. Lack of integrated measurement strategies and data/information systems for mountain hydrologic data hamper improvements to understanding the aforementioned processes. accurately measured on most larger basins and on some lower-order streams within these basins, but too many gauges are being taken out of service and many tributary streams have never been gauged. Snow water equivalent, soil moisture and the components of evapotranspiration remain poorly known, and prototype network designs are lacking. Owing to complex, heterogeneous topography, hydrologic research is clearly needed to develop network designs that, together with advances in modeling, would improve understanding of both the fluxes and reservoirs in the mountains, and also provide information on partitioning of snowmelt into runoff, infiltration, sublimation, and evapotranspiration. New observations will enhance decision-support systems, especially when ground-based networks are integrated with advances in remote sensing and computational modeling. Transferring knowledge of physical processes, scaling of climate model output data, and validating remotely sensed data are more difficult, though tractable, in mountainous regions because of subgrid heterogeneity. Further, advances in ground-observations have not been on par with those in remote sensing and computational modeling, and ground observation networks in mountainous regions have not been implemented with a water-balance focus. Several sources of seasonal snow cover data exist, ranging from information collected as part of weather monitoring to hydrologic data from networks dedicated to snow data collection, and more recently to remotely sensed products from polar orbiting satellites. The research value of these timeseries data mandates their inclusion in future snow data archives, such as that to be associated with the CUAHSI Hydrologic Observatories. However, none of these datasets encompasses enough sys- 14 tem interactions to be considered ‘snow system’ data. The need for integrated, interdisciplinary snow system data collection and standardization is imperative to enable examination of system interactions and feedbacks on global to local scales. Precipitation The spatial pattern of precipitation in mountainous terrain is nearly impossible to measure. There are multiple networks in place, including NWS cooperative stations, RAWS (Remote Automated Weather Stations), NRCS SNOTEL (Snowpack Telemetry) stations, and a number of smaller networks. Most of these stations lack the capacity to differentiate snow from rain. The National Weather Service installed the Next Generation Weather Radar system (NEXRAD) in 1994 to improve operational measurements of precipitation around the country. However, NEXRAD signals are occluded by mountains and thus are less reliable in the complex terrain where snowfall occurs. There are also severe limitations with measuring precipitation accurately at a point. Traditional precipitation gauges have the inherent problems of undercatch, temporal lag due to the slow melting of captured snow, and inability to discriminate solid and liquid precipitation. Turbulence at the catch orifice inhibits capture of precipitation. Both heated-plate and optical sensors have been developed to estimate snowfall more accurately. However, deploying them in remote locations away from power may limit their use in the mountains. Techniques to estimate precipitation using a combination of ground-based and remotely sensed observations are being developed, but still at coarse resolutions and with poor abilities to distinguish rain from snow. The research question is: how can a coupled satellite and ground-based precipitation estimation system meet the requirements for hydrologic applications in the semi-arid regions? Snowpack Properties Snow-covered area and albedo. Remote sensing is the only practical way to measure the spatial extent of snow cover and albedo, and over the past decade methods for retrieving snow-covered area from visible and infrared instruments on satellites have become well developed [Dozier and Painter, 2004]. To the extent possible, remote sensing of snow properties derives from first principles about the optical properties of snow. Radiative transfer models of snow reflectance and transmittance treat the snow grains as independent scatterers, because the grain sizes and their center-to-center separations are much larger than the wavelength of the light. Because of multiple scattering as light enters the snowpack, penetration depths are restricted to no more than 0.5-m in the blue wavelengths and are 15 only a few millimeters in the near-infrared and infrared. Therefore, the possibility of remotely sensing SWE in the optical wavelengths is severely limited, and one must use active microwave remote sensing to measure this important variable in alpine regions [Shi and Dozier, 2000a; 2000b]. In areas where spatial resolution is not an issue, passive microwave remote sensing can estimate snow water equivalent at values well below 1m, where the signal becomes asymptotic [Goodison and Walker, 1994; Foster et al., 1997; Chen et al., 2001]. Remaining parameters come from a combination of in situ measurements and terrain-based energy-balance models [Dozier and Frew, 1990; Daly et al., 2000; Davis et al., 2001]. Snow-covered area in alpine terrain often varies at a spatial scale finer than that of the ground instantaneous field-of-view of the remote sensing instrument. This spatial heterogeneity poses a “mixed pixel” problem in that the sensor may measure radiance reflected from snow, rock, soil, and vegetation. To use the snow characteristics in distributed physical models, we must therefore map snow-covered area at subpixel resolution in order to accurately represent its spatial distribution. Otherwise, systematic errors may result. The snow cover algorithm for the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectoradiometer (MODIS) [Hall et al., 2002], for example, identifies pixels whose snow cover fraction is greater than about 50% as 100% snow-covered, whereas those pixels where the snow cover fraction is less than 50% are mapped as snow-free (the algorithm can be tuned to adjust these thresholds). For some applications, overestimates will balance underestimates. However, for snow hydrologic applications in mountainous regions, the spatial distribution of snow cover with elevation is needed, rather than the simple basin average. The global snow albedo product derived from NASA Terra and Aqua MODIS data [Klein and Stroeve, 2002] is also afflicted by the mixed pixel problem. The albedo model assumes complete snow cover based on the MODIS snow cover product. For mountain snow cover, rarely continuous at the 500-m scale, the regional estimates of snow albedo will be systematically underestimated. Using remotely sensed fractional snow albedo dramatically improved estimates of spatial snowmelt patterns and basin-wide snowmelt [Molotch et al., 2004a]. The same model for estimating snow properties has been ported to use with MODIS surface reflectance data at 500m resolution (Figure 4) and is under development for analysis of current and historical AVHRR data. Snow water equivalent. SWE is measured accurately at over 1,700 points in the Western U.S., from a combination of manual snow surveys and transmitting snow pillows. While this large number of samples can provide regional knowledge of the spatial distribution of SWE, it is insufficient to 16 resolve the variability of SWE at the basin scale. Moreover, the vast majority of snow courses and automated stations are situated below timberline. In wet years, the lack of sampling of alpine snow water equivalent manifests itself as a dramatic underestimate of late-spring runoff. The ideal spatial resolution for estimating SWE distribution reduces subgrid element heterogeneity to a level where most of the variability in the system can be modeled explicitly [Blöschl, 1999]. An acute problem is the lack of a network to measure the temporally and spatially continuous distribution of SWE at basin and mountain range scales. The existing snow measurements are used as indices of streamflow, rather than for directly measuring basin-scale snow volumes. The locations are characterized by a homogenous snow cover and snowpack conditions specific to that elevation in that basin, and all of the courses are on flat or nearly flat ground. Moreover, they must be accessible during winter without exposing the surveyors to avalanche danger. There is a pressing research need to develop strategies to blend remotely sensed and ground-based data, including measurement network design, to accurately estimate SWE. Maps such as those produced by the NWS National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center come from spatial interpolation of precipitation, snow telemetry, and snow-course measurements coupled with coarse-scale remote sensing of snow cover. Yet the location and paucity of these sites necessarily undersample the SWE distribution. Several investigators have explored multi-frequency, multi-polarization radar for retrieving SWE and wet snow cover at spatial scales commensurate with the variability of snow properties in mountainous terrain [Nagler and Rott, 2000; Shi and Dozier, 2000a; 2000b]. However, layering of ice and liquid water, snowmelt columns, rough terrain, and vegetation cover present obstacles to quantitative retrievals of SWE from radar. More importantly, we have no operational radar satellites with sufficient spectral and polarization capabilities to infer depth and density simultaneously. Passive microwave measurements of SWE are hugely important in measurements of continental-scale snow, but their coarse spatial resolution limits their utility in the mountains. Data integration. A ground-based observational network remains a viable and important component of the snow observing system that should not be replaced by the satellite system. Satellite-based snow cover/depth observations probably will cover the future needs of many users of snow data, but economics and scientific objectives now require a merging of all available snow information in a superior enhanced data set. For example, Fassnacht et al. [2003] interpolated SNOTEL data using a hypsometric regression with inverse distance weighting on residuals and subsequently masks the continuous SWE field with fractional AVHRR snow-covered area. By incorporating fractional snow 17 cover maps from remote sensing, the interpolated SWE field more closely approximates the true mass of snow. At the catchment scale, Elder et al. [Elder et al., 1998] mapped SWE with field survey data through a regression tree model and then masked with 30 m Landsat Thematic Mapper fractional snow-covered area [Rosenthal and Dozier, 1996]. Opportunities for deploying new technologies exist, taking advantage of advances in spatially distributed sensor networks comprised of smart wireless sensors and actuators. These have the capability of being deployed in a high-density measurement array providing both sampling in a wider field or in a concentrated array. These low-cost, low-power systems will provide detailed spatial and temporal data on such important issues affecting mountain hydrology such as land-air interactions, ecosystems, and climate change. These systems are designed for continuous long-term hydrologic measurements, with networks having the ability to be both adaptive and self-configuring. Individual sensor signals are both archived and synthesized within the network to provide an integrated virtual sensor capable of relaying more meaningful information than the individual sensors. Soil Moisture Soil moisture is measured at some Remote Automated Weather Stations (RAWS), but these generally do not lie in alpine settings. Remote sensing of soil moisture is made in the microwave frequencies. Passive microwave retrievals are too coarse for the spatial variability and rugged terrain in mountain regions. Radar retrievals of soil moisture are in research mode now but the sensitivity of backscattering to the soil dielectric constant holds significant promise for such retrievals [Oldak et al., 2003; Western et al., 2004]. Again, rugged terrain and vegetation cover will confound retrievals. While the technical difficulties are great, definition of the spatial variability of soil moisture is critical in modeling hydrologic response in mountain catchments [Zehe and Blöschl, 2004]. Therefore, we recommend extension of the network of in situ soil moisture sampling for more spatially dense sampling. As radar retrievals of soil moisture advance, they should be integrated into the spatial interpolation schemes developed around the in situ network. Like SWE, network design for soil moisture measurement is a research issue. Evapotranspiration Ogunjemiyo et al. [2002] have shown some promise that evapotranspiration may be retrieved in rugged terrain with imaging spectroscopy. However, even at the plot scale, field spectroscopy has limited potential to measure ET. Flux towers remain the method of choice for accurately estimating land surface-atmosphere exchange at a point. Strategies for extending estimates across a mountain 18 range with gradients of precipitation and temperature, a mix of vegetation types, and varying management practices combine transects of flux towers with less-intensive instrumentation, both of which are blended with information from remote sensing. Data and Information Systems Current computing environments, research practices, and data provided by agencies give too little support to integrating data between different systems. Typically, all these systems use scripts for performing the required processing, along with idiosyncratic naming conventions for the files that hold the products. It is therefore time consuming to extract data from a variety of systems, especially when wants a synoptic view or wants to parse the data according to some criteria (e.g., data from all snow courses above some particular elevation in a particular basin with more than some threshold length of record). Our current modes of analysis usually require reorganizing the data and creating or rediscovering metadata values for each product. Dissemination, especially where custom processing such as subsetting, reprojection, or reformatting is required, is often treated in a similarly ad hoc fashion. The technologies to solve most of these problems are at hand already, but it will be necessary to organize a concerted commitment among users and providers. CONCLUDING THOUGHTS Our current ability to quantitatively estimate water fluxes and reservoirs in mountains is inadequate. While there are a number of accurate streamflow measurements, many tributary rivers are ungauged. Precipitation and snowpack are measured accurately at a point, but the accuracy of rangescale estimates is unknown. There are also large knowledge gaps in other components of the water cycle, biogeochemical fluxes and ecological linkages. The economic value of and societal demand for new knowledge and tools for mountain hydrology is very large. Public agencies, private companies, watershed councils and other nongovernmental organizations, and a myriad of other stakeholders need and want new information on with which to make water-sensitive decisions. Climate change and the high degree of climate variability experienced in the semi-arid west are important drivers for this new knowledge, along with population growth and land use change. Advances will require sustained investments in new measurements and infrastructure to enable the research described above. The proposed CUAHSI hydrologic observatories will be an important component of this investment, but the need is still broader. Adequate data and information systems to support research are perhaps an even more critical need. 19 Measurement strategies for mountain systems will rely heavily on remote sensing. 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Beven, Similarity and scale in catchment storm response, Reviews of Geophysics, 28, 1-18, 1990. Zehe, E., and G. Blöschl, Predictability of hydrologic response at the plot and catchment scales: Role of initial conditions, Water Resources Research, 40, W10202, doi: 10.1029/2003WR002869, 2004. 23 Figure 1. Relief map of the mountain west 24 data cube SWE albedo SCA incident solar relative wind air longwave temp humidity speed t y x vegetation topography soils energy balance LSM basin potential runoff pixel by pixel SWE & SCA SWE Time pixel by pixel runoff potential Time Figure 2. Energy balance modeling scheme 25 plot/hillslope soil moisture basin remote sensing SCA albedo vegetation snow distribution melt timing snow distribution partitioning infiltration ET runoff micromet recharge ground/RS SWE precip radiation EB topography fluxes Blending measurements from multiple scales ground soil moisture infiltration & recharge micromet bedrock soils Figure 3. Scaling the mountain water balance 26 Figure 4. Fractional snow-covered area and albedo from MODIS 27