IIFET 2006 Portsmouth Proceedings
WTO AND FISHERIES: AN UPDATE
Audun Lem, FAO, audun.lem@fao.org
ABSTRACT
The outcome of the current multilateral trade negotiations in the Doha Round will have large implications
on international fish trade. The author highlights the most likely scenarios in areas such as market access
and fisheries subsidies, and outlines the very diverse interests and negotiation positions of WTO
members.
Keywords: WTO, Trade, Doha
THIS PRESENTATION ATTEMPTS TO GIVE AN OVERVIEW OF THE FISHERIES
SITUATION HIGHLIGHTING FOUR ASPECTS:
• SUPPLY (= PRODUCTION) = CAPTURE FISHERIES + AQUACULTURE
PRODUCTION
• FISH TRADE: MAIN SPECIES IN TRADE, MAJOR IMPORTING AND
EXPORTING COUNTRIES
• THE IMPORTANCE OF WTO FOR THE INTERNATIONAL FISH TRADE
• THE MOST IMPORTANT FISHERIES ISSUES IN DOHA DEVELOPMENT
AGENDA
World fish supply
Catches
Aquaculture
Total
2004
95 million tons
45 million tons
140 million tons
2003
90 million tons
43 million tons
133 million tons
2002
93 million tons
40 million tons
133 million tons
World fish supply is increasing year by year. 2/3 of the total still come from capture fisheries but the main
driving factor behind total growth is the aquaculture sector.
Continued growth in aquaculture output is needed to satisfy growing world demand
World fish supply: the role of aquaculture
140
Millions of tonnes
120
Aquaculture
Catch
100
80
60
40
20
0
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
1970
1969
1968
1967
1966
1965
1964
1963
1962
1961
1960
1959
1958
1957
1956
1955
1954
1953
1952
1951
1950
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IIFET 2006 Portsmouth Proceedings
The previous graph shows total supply (catch + aquaculture) from the 1950s onwards. Capture fisheries
increased in previous decades but have now stagnated, although there are yearly fluctuations. Main
growth is now from aquaculture.
World fish supply: the role of China
World capture and aquaculture production
Million tonnes
140
120
100
China
80
60
40
World excluding China
20
0
1950
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
This graph shows total supply but divides the world in two: China and the world without China.
The importance of China is evident and its role has been increasing tremendously from the mid 1980s.
In fact, fisheries production was one of the first economic sectors to be liberalized in China.
Per capita food fish supply (kg)
Kg/year
16.5
16
World
15.5
15
14.5
World - excluding China
14
13.5
13
98
99
00
01
02
03
In this graph, the top red line shows how much fish has been available on average for the world
population as a whole. It is clear that there has been a slight increase; a couple of years ago we were
below 16 kgs/caput, now we are above.
The lower line shows availability for the world excluding China. Here, stagnation prevails: and supply is
three kgs/caput less than the amount recorded for the world as a whole including China.
This implies that per caput consumption is higher in China than elsewhere, and that Chinese fish
consumption has been growing more rapidly than the world as a whole.
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Marine & inland catches - top 10 producers
Marine and inland capture fisheries: top ten producer countries in 2002
China
16.6
8.8
Peru
4.9
United States of America
4.5
Indonesia
4.4
Japan
Chile
4.3
3.8
India
3.2
Russian Federation
2.9
Thailand
2.7
Norway
0
2
4
6
8
10
Million tonnes
12
14
16
18
This graph shows the 10 major producing countries from marine and inland capture fisheries (aquaculture
excluded). China again is the major producer. The listing also shows how global production is with both
China, Asian, North and South American, European countries on the top 10 list.
Marine & inland catches - top 10 species
Marine capture fisheries production: top ten species in 2002
Anchoveta
9.7
Alaska pollock
2.7
2.0
Skipjack tuna
2.0
Capelin
Atlantic herring
1.9
Japanese anchovy
1.9
Chilean jack mackerel
1.8
1.6
Blue whiting
Chub mackerel
1.5
Largehead hairtail
1.5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Million tonnes
The graph indicates the 10 major marine species from capture fisheries. Anchoveta is the number one,
mainly from Peru and Chile.
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IIFET 2006 Portsmouth Proceedings
Growth in aquaculture production
45
Millions of tonnes
40
35
Aquaculture
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
1970
1969
1968
1967
1966
1965
1964
1963
1962
1961
1960
1959
1958
1957
1956
1955
1954
1953
1952
1951
1950
Aquaculture production has grown tremendously over the last two-three decades. Now, aquaculture
provides 45 million tonnes per year or about 1/3 of total fish supply in the world.
Aquaculture by country (2004)
Country
China
India
Viet Nam
Indonesia
Bangladesh
Japan
Thailand
Chile
Norway
Egypt
World Total
Aquaculture production (million tons)
30.6
2.3
1.2
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
45.5
% of total production
67
5
3
2
2
2
2
Among the major aquaculture producing countries, China is again number one (as in capture fisheries).
Other Asian producers are also very strong (India, Viet Nam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Japan, Thailand).
Egypt has also a growing sector (tilapia, carp, mullet) and Norway and Chile with mostly salmon species.
Fish trade
World fish exports: US$ 72 billion in 2004
•
•
•
Trade is growing: 2004 + 12.7 %
Developing countries: 50 % of world fish exports
Net export revenues from fisheries crucial for many developing countries (US$ 20 bill. in 2004)
World fish trade is growing strongly. Developing country exports in world supply are fundamental with
50% of the total. Net export revenues earned by developing countries from fish exports US$ 20 billion per
year.
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IIFET 2006 Portsmouth Proceedings
Net exports from commodities:
US$ billions
20
1981
1991
15
2001
10
5
0
-5
Fish
Coffee
Bananas
Rubber
Cocoa
Sugar
Tea
Tobacco
Rice
Meat
This graph shows the net export revenues earned by developing countries from their fish exports (exports
minus imports). It shows how foreign earnings from fish exports are larger than what developing
countries earn from any other food commodity.
World fish trade: Export Value (in 1000 US$):
70,000,000
60,000,000
Developing countries
or areas
50,000,000
Developed countries
or areas
40,000,000
30,000,000
20,000,000
10,000,000
0
1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Fish exports have been growing but the 50/50 share between developed and developing countries has
remained fairly stable.
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IIFET 2006 Portsmouth Proceedings
Main exporters 2004 (value shares):
N o r w ay
6%
T hailand
6%
U SA
5%
C hi na
9%
C anad a
5%
V iet N am
3%
EU
34%
Ind o nesi a
2%
C hile
3%
T ai wan Pr o vince
o f C hina
3%
The main single exporter is now China, having overtaken Thailand a few years back. Norway is also a
large exporter as are the US and Canada.The rising role of Viet Nam as a producer and exporter is
noteworthy. If the EU is considered one group, its exports are also large even though much of what is
exported from one EU country is imported by another EU neighbour.
Species exported in 2004 (value shares):
F is h Oil
M o llus c s ( o t he r) F is hm e a l 1%
C e pha lo po ds 5 %
4%
F re s hwa t e4r %
O t he rs
30%
4%
S m a ll pe la gic s
5%
S a lm o n
9%
T una
8%
S hrimp
18 %
G ro undf is h
11%
Shrimp is by far the most valuable export, followed by groundfish (cod, pollock, haddock etc), salmon
and tuna. Some of these come from aquaculture but the exact split capture/aquaculture is unknown
because trade data do not make this distinction.
Fishery products destined for exports:
Share of fishery production destined for exports
Million tonnes (live weight)
100%
150
Production
120
80%
Exports
Domestic markets
90
60%
60
40%
30
20%
0
1976 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 2000 02
6
0%
1976 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 2000 02
IIFET 2006 Portsmouth Proceedings
Both fish production and trade have been increasing. Today ca 37 % of total fish production is exported.
This share may fluctuate a bit from year to year but on a long term positive upward trend.
Fish importers (2004):
US$ billion
14.6
12.0
29.4
56.0
Japan
USA
EU
Total
% of total fish imports
19.3
15.9
39.1
74.3
We saw previously that 50% of fish exports come from developing countries. When looking at imports
we see a much higher concentration, with three markets taking almost 75% of the total (EU, Japan, US).
This share though is expected to decline slightly as other developing countries will import more in the
future.
Trade of fish and fishery products: China
US$ billlion
5
4
3
Surplus
2
Exports
1
Imports
0
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
You see in the graph how rapidly the Chinese international fish trade has developed since the mid 1980’s.
In 2004, the surplus in the Chinese trade was more than US $ 3.5 billion. However, if we measured the
trade in volume, we would see that China is a net importer of fish of more than half a million tons per
year.
There are two reasons for the Chinese imports:
• Imports for domestic consumption of species not produced in China, and
• imports of raw material for processing in China and re-exports to foreign markets.
China is becoming a world leader in processing of fish. We notice how rapidly the imports are rising as
well. China is already the 8th largest fish importer in the world, and we can anticipate that in a few years
China will become the third largest world importer, only behind Japan and the US (and the EU-25 when
seen as a group).
The importance of WTO in fish trade
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IIFET 2006 Portsmouth Proceedings
Why is the WTO so important for fish trade? With 150 members, all major producing, importing and
exporting countries are now WTO members, and WTO rules apply to virtually all fish trade in the world.
The only two country exceptions, Russia and Viet Nam are well into their accession process and could
become members if not in 2006, in 2007.
With WTO rules governing fish trade, the advantages are, among others:
•
•
•
•
Clearly defined set of rules;
Trade liberalization and improved market access;
Dispute Settlement;
(Trade related capacity building measures).
WTO and fish trade
•
•
•
•
Tariffs: 4.5 % for fish exports to developed countries, but problems of tariff peaks and
escalation
Non-tariff barriers:
o quality-safety related
o SPS/TBT agreements
Dispute settlement
New trade negotiations under the Doha Development Agenda
o Fishery subsidies
o Tariffs (trade liberalization)
The major relevance for fish within the WTO framework is related to improving market access.
It is important to remember that fish is grouped with non-agricultural products and not subject to the
Agreement on Agriculture.
In general, the import tariffs on fish imports applied by developed countries are not a major obstacle to
fish trade (as developed countries are relying on fish imports for a large part of their needs). After the
Uruguay Round, the weighted average import duty applied by developed countries is often estimated at
around 4.5 %.
Although quite low, the average hides a number of tariff peaks (very high peaks for certain fish species)
and tariff escalation. Escalation is the case for products such as shrimp and tuna.
Tariff escalation hinders the development of processing and value addition in developing countries. (For
tuna processing, the current very high import tariffs on canned tuna in the EU benefits the European tuna
fleet and canneries, as well as those countries that have preferential agreements with the EU such as
LDCs under the Everything But Arms (EBA) and African, Caribbean, Pacific (ACP) countries). Over
time though, the value of these preferences has been reduced.
However, import duties in developing countries on fish imports are usually very high. This hinders outhsouth fish trade.
Non-tariff barriers: With import duties in developed countries so low, it is no surprise that the real barrier
to trade is often found elsewhere: in quality and safety requirements to processing facilities and products
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IIFET 2006 Portsmouth Proceedings
for exporters in developing countries. Such import regulations are addressed by the SPS and TBT
agreements.
A third important issue is the fact that only WTO members have access to the Dispute Settlement
Mechanism of the WTO: a number of disputes on fishery products have been settled here and currently
both salmon and shrimp are at some stage in the Dispute process. (in general, more aquaculture
production is expected to lead to more accusations of dumping and illegal subsidies, and therefore more
disputes).
2001: Doha Development Agenda Negotiations, with two major fishery issues: subsidies and trade
liberalization (reduction of tariffs in Non-Agricultural Market Access - NAMA)
Doha Development Agenda (DDA)
•
Fishery Subsidies
o a number of proposals from countries
2004-2006: concept papers
2006: draft text
o two major approaches
top-down: prohibit all subs. with some exceptions
bottom-up: all subsidies are legal, except ....
o issues: overcapacity, management, state of stocks (role of FAO?), access rights (Small
Island Development States - SIDS), Special Differential Treatment (SDT) for developing
countries
o so far the trade dimension not much in discussions
Several issues: most important are fisheries subsidies and market access (tariffs). Others are Multilateral
Environmental Agreements (MEAs) and ecolabels but little has been done here.
•
Market access (NAMA)
o trade liberalization
o import tariff reduction
Hong Kong WTO Ministerial meeting: instructed members to identify sectors
with sufficient participation
Textual proposal on fish and fish products (Canada, Iceland, New Zealand,
Norway, Singapore, Thailand, Panama, Oman)
needs support of critical mass of WTO members
Issues: preferences (ACP/LCDs) and dev.ing countries
Doha – latest development:
•
•
•
•
•
July 2006: impassé
Main obstacle: Agriculture: subsidy reduction and import protection
What now? Consultations with WTO members based on draft texts: AG and NAMA
Next meeting trade neg. committee 29 July 2006
Time is running out...:
o The US fast track negotiating facility expires 1 July 2007.
o Need 6 months for consultation, notification, legislation
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IIFET 2006 Portsmouth Proceedings
This means that Doha must be completed end of 2006
Conclusions
•
WTO WTO Doha Round: further liberalization?
o Depends on WTO members
To conclude:
1. Fish supply is growing: capture fisheries stagnant but aquaculture expansion leads to net growth in
supply (especially aquaculture in Asia).
2. China is largest producer (both in capture fisheries and in aquaculture) and biggest exporter.
3. World fish trade is expanding steadily (2004: value + 12.7 %).
4. Role of developing countries is crucial in world trade with 50% of total exports
5. Fish imports are much more concentrated (in value) than exports: big three importers (Japan, US, EU)
account for 75% of imports (although share is declining).
6. WTO crucial for the well functioning of fish trade: all fishery countries now members (except Russia
and Viet Nam). WTO rules regulate 99 % of international fish trade
7. Growth in Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) and bilateral agreements
8. What will Doha bring: hopefully further trade liberalization and improved market access for
developing countries, (importance of capacity building and overcoming supply constraints in general).
The outcome will only depend on WTO members themselves.
ENDNOTES
This text is based on a Power Point Presentation given on the Policy Day during IIFET 2006. All statistics
are FAO statistics.
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