African Mobile Observatory 2011
Executive Summary
African Mobile Observatory 2011
Driving Economic and Social Development through Mobile Services
This is the first African edition in the
GSMA Mobile Observatory series. This
Observatory provides a comprehensive
review of the African mobile
communications industry. Included
are the latest statistics and market
developments, as a reference point
for mobile industry participants, policy
makers and other interested stakeholders.
It covers the state of the industry,
including the evolution of competition,
innovation in new products, services
and technologies and the industry’s
contribution to social and economic
development in Africa.
Executive Summary
The mobile industry in Africa is booming. With over 620 million mobile connections as of
September 2011, Africa has overtaken Latin America to become the second largest mobile
market in the world, after Asia. Over the past 10 years, the number of mobile connections in
Africa has grown an average of 30% per year and is forecast to reach 735 million by the end
of 2012.
Figure 1: Total African Mobile Connections and Penetration Rate (million, % penetration)1
1000
900
Connections (Millions)
800
Penetration
78.11%
70%
0%
+3
500
400
56.53%
GR
CA
60%
47.79%
50%
40.23%
30.59%
735
22.20%
300
15.30%
200
4.43% 6.22%
2.06% 3.13%
53
37
26
17
9.47%
83
136
201
283
379
458
90%
80%
62.62%
600
0
84.88%
72.62%
700
100
82.06%
552
804
860
906
40%
30%
620
20%
10%
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F
YTD
Fierce competition has driven down prices and increased penetration. Price wars have been
common across the continent as operators compete for market share with innovative
revenue and pricing options - operators have reduced prices an average of 18% between
61%
2010 and 20112, 57%
making mobile connectivity more broadly affordable to the masses. 96% of
subscriptions are pre-paid with voice services currently dominating, however the uptake
of data services is increasing rapidly. For example in Kenya data revenues, including SMS,
have increased at a remarkable 67% CAGR over the last 4 years and now represent 26% of
total revenues.
35%
26%
17%
Namibia
1 Wireless Intelligence - based on active SIM connections
(2011 YTD based on first 9 months data only)
2 Wireless Intelligence
Libya
Ethiopia
Togo
Gabon
15%
Mali
13%
Congo
13%
11%
9%
Djibouti Cape Verde Zimbabwe
900
Connections (Millions)
800
Penetration
78.11%
700
600
0%
+3
500
400
56.53%
GR
CA
60%
47.79%
50%
40.23%
30.59%
15.30%
200
4.43% 6.22%
2.06% 3.13%
53
37
26
17
9.47%
201
136
83
283
458
379
552
906
860
804
735
22.20%
300
0
70%
62.62%
Executive Summary
100
80%
72.62%
40%
30%
620
20%
10%
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F
YTD
Figure 2: Price reductions for voice minutes in selected markets (between March and June 2011)3
61%
57%
35%
26%
17%
Namibia
Libya
Ethiopia
Togo
Gabon
15%
13%
Mali
Congo
13%
11%
9%
Djibouti Cape Verde Zimbabwe
The Mobile Industry in Africa contributes US$56bn to the regional economy, equivalent to 3.5% of
total GDP. In particular, the mobile ecosystem is estimated to employ over 5 million Africans
and is contributing to bringing mobile services to customers right across the continent.
However there remains huge untapped potential - 36% of Africans, within the 25 largest
African mobile markets (A25), still have no access to mobile services. Projections indicate
that raising the whole region to 100% mobile penetration (see figure 3), could add an
additional $35 billion in aggregate GDP to the region, equivalent to a further 2% increase.4
Figure 3: The direct contribution of mobile operators to GDP in A25 countries (2010, %)5
Potential increase to GDP
2.40%
3.30%
3.30%
7.50%
5.00%
5.00%
0.80%
2.40%
1.60%
3.30%
NA
NA
5.00%
5.80%
5.00%
NA
NA
3.30%
5.80%
6.70%
7.50%
1.60%
0.80%
4.10%
MNO revenues as % of GDP
Senegal
Cote d'Ivoire
Kenya
Mali
DRC
Ghana
Benin*
Tanzania
Zambia
Nigeria
Morocco
South Africa
Cameroon
Libya*
Tunisia
Burkina Faso
Uganda
Angola
Egypt
Mozambique
Madagascar
Algeria
Ethiopia*
Sudan*
0.70%
0.70%
4.20%
4.20%
4.10%
3.80%
3.80%
3.70%
3.70%
3.70%
3.50%
3.50%
3.40%
2.90%
2.90%
2.70%
2.70%
2.30%
2.20%
2.10%
2.10%
1.90%
6.00%
5.70%
The mobile industry in Africa is an enabler of economic development far beyond its immediate
domain. Mobile operators have driven the emergence of a unique industry in innovative
mobile services in Africa. Mobile Value-Added Services have been launched throughout
the continent to enable and support agriculture, banking, education, healthcare and gender
2.1-2.6GHz
700
equality. In particular, the emergence of mobile money transfers and mobile banking
1800-1900MHz
594
585 at the forefront of the global Mobile Money industry. Beyond mobile
600 Africa firmly
puts
700-900MHz
services,
the mobile 513
industry is also contributing to rural electrical distribution with lower
500
434
carbon emissions
and facilitating
the work of NGOs across the continent. Many African
314
325
395
400
360 as a key driver for development.
governments
have prioritized
ICT policy
285
229
300
200
100
0
215
150
130
142
118
Germany Sweden
120
273
80
120
140
110
108
65
70
United
States
Hong
Kong
China
240
153
40
Mexico
Nigeria
220
150
70
205
155
50
Tunisia Morocco
204
70
73
62
South
Africa
98
94
48
50
60
34
Uganda Botswana
36 20
16
Cote
d'Ivoire
3 Research ICT Africa – Fair Mobile Prices Q2 2011
4 Clearly, this is a simplification of the challenges which exist in achieving this goal of
100% mobile penetration, something which would take years to achieve. However, it
provides an indication of what could be if mobile communication was brought to the
entire African population.
5 Wireless Intelligence; EIU; Qiang 2008; A.T. Kearney analysis (Zimbabwe has been
removed due to the difficulty in obtaining a reliable measure of GDP, NA – indicates
countries where penetration is above 100% and a potential increase to GDP cannot be
calculated, * indicates countries with extrapolated MNO revenues)
Potential increase to GDP
MNO revenues as % of GDP
Senegal
6.00%
Key issues for future growth
Cote d'Ivoire
0.80%
5.70%
For the mobile industry to3.30%
continue to serve as a catalyst
for growth, sufficient
spectrum
is needed
Kenya
4.20%
Mali
3.30%
4.20%
for the provision
of
mobile
broadband
services.
African
countries
have
currently
allocated
DRC
7.50%
4.10%
3.80%
considerably less spectrum 2.40%
to mobile servicesGhana
than developing countries
in Europe, the
Benin*
3.80%
1.60%
Americas and Asia.
Allocating the Digital Dividend
services will enable
Tanzania spectrum to mobile
3.70%
5.00%
Zambia
3.70%
5.00%
the mobile industry
to accelerate
its efforts to Nigeria
bring connectivity and information
to large
3.70%
3.30%
Morocco
NA
3.50%
swathes of rural Africa.
South Africa
NA
3.50%
Cameroon
3.40%
5.00%
NA
Libya*
2.90%
African governments are slowly shifting
transparent ICT regulation,
but
NA to more
Tunisia
2.90%
Faso
2.70% term growth. The
5.80%availability remains a key Burkina
limited spectrum
barrier
to sustaining long
Uganda
2.70%
5.00%
Angola
2.30%
3.30% neutral approach
GSMA supports a technology
to the use of all existing
mobile bands;
Egypt
2.20%
1.60%
governments in
Africa should allow deployment
of mobile technologies
that can technically
Mozambique
2.10%
5.80%
Madagascar
2.10%
6.70%
co-exist according
to what are relevant
internationally
harmonised
bands
for their region.
Algeria
1.90%
0.80%
Ethiopia*to establish
0.70% clear guidelines for spectrum
7.50%encourages governments in the region
The GSMA
Sudan*
0.70%
4.10%
2.40%
planning, licensing, pricing and re-farming. African governments must clarify future
spectrum availability of both the coverage bands (700, 800, and 900 MHz bands) and the
capacity bands (1800, 2100, 2300, 2600, and 3500 MHz bands).
Figure 4: Spectrum licensed in selected African and non-African countries6
600
594
585
513
500
400
314
434
325
200
100
0
395
285
360
229
300
215
150
130
142
118
Germany Sweden
120
273
80
120
To find out more contact the GSMA Press
team at press@gsm.org or to read the full
Africa Mobile Observatory with in-depth
analysis and detailed examples visit
www.gsmworld.com
2.1-2.6GHz
1800-1900MHz
700-900MHz
700
140
110
108
65
70
United
States
Hong
Kong
China
240
153
40
Mexico
Nigeria
220
150
70
205
155
50
Tunisia Morocco
204
70
73
62
South
Africa
98
94
48
50
60
34
Uganda Botswana
36 20
16
Cote
d'Ivoire
Regulation practices must continue to improve to ensure the effective long term development
of the mobile sector. 64% of African countries remain in the bottom quartile of the World
Economic Forum’s political/regulatory index. GSMA research indicates that total tax
intake of governments could be boosted, by reducing mobile specific taxes across Africa.
Universal access has also been promoted by most African governments using taxation
schemes, but there is limited transparency around the distribution of funds.
By working in partnership, mobile operators and African governments can continue the
remarkable growth story of the African mobile industry. The benefits that mobile services
have already brought to hundreds of millions of Africans can be extended to those who
have yet to connect. By so doing, the African continent can continue to bring not only
communication services, but also improved financial services, healthcare and education to
its people and drive an increase in the economic wealth and development.
For further information please contact: info@gsm.org
GSMA London Office
T +44 (0) 20 7356 0600
www.gsmworld.com
November 2011
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6 GSMA, National regulators