CLIMATE RESEARCH IN THE DEPARTMENT OF PHYSICS
J. Padovani Ginies & N. Bonnici, MALTA CLIMATE TEAM
14-19th March 2011
AN ANALYSIS OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE YASI
using a Numerical Weather Prediction Model,
WRF
Mr. Jason Padovani Ginies & Mr. Norbert Bonnici
CONTENTS
What is a Tropical Storm?
Yasi Tropical Storm
The Model – WRF
Results
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WHAT IS A TROPICAL STORM?
 Collection of thunderstorms
 Low pressure center surrounded by a system of higher pressure.
 Catastrophic effects
 Winds damaging properties, vehicles and crops.
 Extreme weather conditions possibly causing shipwrecks and aviation
problems.
 Loose debris is also dangerous, being turned to deadly flying
projectiles.
4
YASI
 26th January till 3rd February 2011
 Originated from a tropical low near the Fiji islands, moving
to northern Queensland
5
YASI
 26th January till 3rd February 2011
 Originated from a tropical low near the Fiji islands, moving
to northern Queensland
 Reached Category 4 on SSHS scale
 Lowest pressure: 929mb
 Wind sustains of 215 km/h, gusts of 285 km/h
 About $3.5 billion in damages1
 1 Death over the days
6
YASI
th January till 3rd February 2011
th January

2626
– Tropical Low
 Originated from a tropical low near the Fiji islands, moving
th JanuaryQueensland
to27northern
– Tropical Depression
 Reached Category 4 on SSHS scale
30thpressure:
January –929mb
Tropical Storm
 Lowest
 Wind sustains of 215 km/h, gusts of 285 km/h
31st February – Severe Tropical Cyclone
 About $3.5 billion in damages1
 1 Death over2nd
theFebruary
days – Category 4
7
YASI
 26th January till 3rd February 2011
 Originated from a tropical low near the Fiji islands, moving
to northern Queensland
 Reached Category 4 on SSHS scale
8
YASI
 26th January till 3rd February 2011
 Originated from a tropical low near the
Fiji islands, moving
Storm
Category Wind Speed
to northern Queensland
 Reached Category 4 on SSHS(km/h)
scale
Surge
(m)
5
>250
>5.5
4
210-249
4.0-5.5
3
178-209
2.7-3.7
2
154-177
1.8-2.4
1
119-153
1.2-1.5
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YASI
 26th January till 3rd February 2011
 Originated from a tropical low near the Fiji islands, moving
to northern Queensland
 Reached Category 4 on SSHS scale
 Lowest pressure: 929mb
 Wind sustains of 215 km/h, gusts of 285 km/h
 About $3.5 billion in damages1
 1 Death over the days
1.
According to http://www.reuters.com
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COMPARISON
KATRINA (2005)
YASI (2011)
 Category 5 on SSHS scale
 Category 4 on SSHS scale
 Damage: $81.2 billion
 Damage: $3.5 billion
 At least 1,836 deaths
 1 death
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WRF
 Mesoscale Numerical Weather prediction model
 Installed on the UoM Computer Cluster – ALBERT
 Distributed Computing
WRF
Operational
Forecasting
Weather
Research
12
NESTING
13
NESTING
14
HOW IT WORKS
Data Mining
Pre
Processing
Physics
Post
Processing
15
DOMAIN USED
16
Yasi
OUR RESULTS
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CLOUD FRACTION
18
SURFACE PRESSURE
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CONCLUSION
Comparable with storm track
Achieved the eye and a cyclonic system
Experience
 WRF
 ALBERT
Informative on current events
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The MCT is grateful to the following:
 PRECIS
 Met Office UK, C. Morrell, S. Tucker, D. Hein, D. Hassell
 RegCM4
 The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, X. Bi
 WRF
 The WRF community
 Department of Physics
 C.V. Sammut, L. Zammit Mangion, A. Magro, D. Cutajar
 IT Services
 A. Zammit, S. Portelli, S. Ancilleri
 Data Centres
 ESRL, ECMWF, Australian RCS network
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