Is Anybody Listening?
Philip Mote
Alan Hamlet, Lara Whitely Binder
Climate Impacts Group
Univ. of Washington
the controversy
Steps toward adaptation
• Recognition
• Calculation
• Decisions
– Incorporate in existing processes
– Proactively address new challenges
Recognition
• Human influence on global climate has
emerged
• Regional warming trends (possibly
attributable) are large
• Hydrologic effects of warming are emerging
and pose challenges to water mgmt
• Ecological effects are emerging, more
challenging to understand and predict
Second-Order Draft
"
"
Chapter 9
IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Repo
Regional attribution
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Regional attribution
Declining snow 1950-1997
Changes in centroid of flow
Stewart et al., 2005
Observed Pacific Northwest annual temperature
10.5
o
+0.83 C per century
10.0
Degrees C
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
1900
1915
1930
1945 1960
year
1975
1990
2005
Additional evidence of global
warming
Snake River at Ice Harbor
140000
120000
Flow (cfs)
100000
base
comp 2020
comp 2040
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
Three effects of warming
J
A
S
Guiding Principles for Planning
600+ attendees familiarize themselves
with climate impacts and begin
strategizing methods of preparing for/
adapting to climate changes
Breakout Topics:
 agriculture
 coastal areas
 fish/shellfish
 flooding/stormwater/wastewater
15%
 forestry
14%
6%
15%
15%
Business
Other
Local Government
State Government
Federal Government
Non-profit
35%
February 15, 2006
www.cses.washington.edu/cig/
 hydropower
 municipal water supply
Recognition
Northwest Hydropower Association
Puget Sound Clean Air Agency
Insurance Commissioner, State of WA
Washington Public Utility District Association
Lake Roosevelt Forum
King County Council, WA
Yellowstone to Yukon Conservation Initiative
Congressman Jay Inslee, D-WA
Congressman Norm Dicks, D-WA
Energy Northwest, Inc.
Cascade Natural Gas, Inc.
Portland General Electric
Puget Sound Energy, Inc.
Pacificorp, Inc.
Idaho Dept of Water Resources
Oregon Water Resources
Board
Calculation
NW Power and Conservation Council
Portland Water Bureau
Seattle Public Utilities
NW Fisheries Science Center
Corps of Engineers - Kootenai River
sturgeon
• Columbia Basin Trust
• Idaho Dept of Water Resources
•
•
•
•
•
Energy and Cost
Scenario
Annual
Energy
(aMW)
Annual
Benefit
(Millions)
Warm/Wet
300
$170
Mixed
-500
- $160
-2000
- $730
Warm/Dry
Change in electric demand
800
600
400
200
0
-200
-400
-600
Demand
Temp
-800
-1000
-1200
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
-1400
Portland Water Supply Climate Change
Study
2040s WATER NEEDS IN
PORTLAND (OR):
Regional growth: +40 mgd
Climate change: +20 mgd
Climate change impacts =
50% of growth impacts
Changes in
Daily Max Temp
(2050) in the
Snohomish
Basin
(2.2°F)
Setting the course for adaptation: A
guidebook for planning for climate change
#

Detailed description of why and how to prepare
for global warming at the local/regional scale

Collaboration between UW Climate Impacts Group
and King County, Washington

To be published by ICLEI – Local Governments for
Sustainability

Due out: Fall 2006
Guide for local governments: Anywhere, USA, regardless of existing
preparation
#
Development of general institutional capacity
#
Strategies for increasing the resilience of specific sectors
#
Collection of resources and guide to actions
www.cses.washington.edu/cig/
Decisions