MtnClim Wkshp Mt Hood, OR 9/21/2006
State and Federal Support to Assess
Climate Change in California
Dan Cayan
Climate Research Division
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, SIO/UCSD
California’s
growing
Population
Nation’s largest
projected to double by 2050
Southern California’s
population has grown
by 175% since 1990
North Pacific storms
are seasonal
so
California’s Precipitation
season is very brief
In about 120 days, California
must accumulate two thirds of
its annual precipitation
Our water supply comes
mainly during Oct-Mar ,
owing to the North Pacific
storm regime
California has a long
history of adapting and
mitigating climate impacts.
UC Press 1989
ISBN 0-520-06487-9
“Soon after the Gold Rush…They discovered that during the annual winter cycle of
torrential storms that for millennia had swept in from the Pacific…,the Sacramento River
…rose …to flow over their banks onto wide Valley floor….to produce terrifying floods.”
“For the better part of the next several generations, embattled farmers and townspeople
struggled to get control of their great river system… In our time, after that long labor,
we observe in the Sacramento Valley a literally remade environment… The Sacramento
and its tributaries are hidden behind a thousand miles of high levees…which have made
a Holland of the Sacramento Valley. “
Recent notable
climate impacts,
California
Drought 1976-1977, 19871992
Massive El Nino and heavy
winter storms winters 19821983, 1997-1998
Floods February 1986,
December-January 1997
Place-Based Integrated
Climate Sciences Th e
RISA approach puts
regional- and local-scale
research front and
center. This research is
a primary part of building
and nurturing eff ective
climate services.
Usable Climate Sciences
The RISA goal is to conduct
the kinds of research and
product development
needed to help society
make decisions in the face
of climate variability and
change,
Development of The NOAA RISA Program
Climate Sensitive” Regional Integrated Sciences and
Assessments (RISA) Research:Origins, Development and
FutureBy Harvey Hill, Roger Pulwarty, and Claudia Nierenberg
growing interest in ENSO forecasting, and mounting evidence that an integrated
research effort would need to target and involve decision makers.
Integrated research could be extended beyond being an academic exercise
and to be genuinely “useable” or applicable to decision makers’ needs.
Place Based-- an experiment to identify effective means of conducting integrated regional
climate sensitive research in their region. …to define the physical and social
context in which regional decision-makers work.
Each team was established at academic institutions, usually with cooperative
agreements with NOAA to facilitate communication btw federal and academic systems
Between 1997 and 2003 eight RISA experiments were established:
The Pacific Northwest (1997), Southwest (1997), California (1998),
Florida/Southeast (1998), Colorado (1998), New Hampshire/New England (2001),
The Carolinas (2003), and Hawaii (2003). [note Alaska has been added 2006;
New England has dropped out]
RISA advancing our understanding of how to incorporate climate information into
public sector decision-making processes and to some degree the private
sector particularly in terms of quantitative decision support tools
California Climate Landmarks
Energy Deregulation: In 1996, Assembly Bill 1890 provided authority for a
fundamental restructuring of California's electric services industry. Among
other things, AB 1890 requires that at least $62.5 million be collected
annually from investor-owned utility ratepayers for "public interest" energy
RD&D efforts not adequately provided by competitive and regulated markets.
GHG Inventory: in 2000 Senate Bill 1771 specified the creation of the
non-profit organization, the California Climate Action Registry.
Limits on GHG Emissions. Assembly Bill 32 passed by legislature, signed by
Governor establishing mandatory reporting of GHG emissions
California Climate Scenarios Project Executive Order S-3-05) on June 1, 2005
mandated the preparation of a biannual science report describing the impacts
climate change would have on water supply, forestry, public health, agriculture, and the
coastline, and discussing coping and adaptation strategies that the state should
consider.
Will we lose our late spring
Snowpack?
By the end of the century California could lose half of its late spring snow pack due
to climate warming. This simulation by Noah Knowles is guided by temperature
changes from PCM’s Business-as-usual simulation. Arguably, this graphic had a
substantial impact in provoking California gov’t to take this issue more seriously
The California Energy Commission's Public Interest Energy Research (PIER)
Program supports energy research, development and demonstration (RD&D)
projects that will help improve the quality of life in California by bringing
environmentally safe, affordable and reliable energy services and products to
the marketplace.
The PIER Program annually awards up to $62 million to conduct the most
promising public interest energy research by partnering with RD&D
organizations including individuals, businesses, utilities, and public or private
research institutions.
PIER brings new energy services and products to the marketplace and creates
state-wide environmental and economic benefits. PIER funding efforts are
focused on the following RD&D program areas:
Buildings End-Use Energy Efficiency
Energy Innovations Small Grant Program
Energy-Related Environmental Research
Energy Systems Integration
Environmentally-Preferred Advanced Generation
Industrial/Agricultural/Water End-Use Energy Efficiency
Renewable Energy Technologies
A State-supported California
Climate Change Center
How will Climate Change Impact California?
Scenarios, not forecasts
PCM. GFDL, HAD
Model-based
Climate Projections
Human
Health
Agriculture
Coasts
Water
Impacts
-Physical
-Ecological
-Economic
-Social
Forests/
Fire
Energy
Coping Capacity/Preparedness
Susi Moser, NCAR
The outreach brochure
From the California
Governor’s
Climate Scenario
Assessment
Available in English and
Spanish
http://www.energy.ca.gov/
http://meteora.ucsd.edu/cap/
Simulations in Scenarios Assessment
span range of GHG emissions,
climate sensitivity
Across virtually all sectors,
impacts intensify as warming increases
Summary of
Impacts
(end of century)
How many of the largest historical storms
were just below freezing?
Because of this
topography and its
regularly near-freezing
temps, parts of
watersheds on the west
slope of the Sierra such
as Yosemite are
among the areas most
highly vulnerable to
warming in the Nation:
in this case, to possible
warming-induced
flooding
Less vulnerable
Computed from gridded historical US weather
data (from Bates et al, in rev)
More vulnerable
“Warm-storm flooding”
Mike Dettinger
6 different
climate
models
Getting toward the need for
confidence levels
an ensemble of simulations:
Strong concensus for
warming
But large uncertainty
about precipitation
Climate models project
ocean warming by end of
century of 1.5-2.C
greater warming on land
than oceans would amplify
thermal gradient across
California coast-interior
Summer land warming
is accentuated
GFDL CM2.1 Jun-Aug air temp change
2070-2099 minus 1961-1990
The extinction of the cool part of the temperature distribution
Motivated
Applications community
Mosquitos!
Kern County, California—a good nights’ catch, Bill Reisen UC Davis
These sites have at least 5
years of data between 1976
and 2001
Summary
Concentrated study of Regional Climate Change (and
variabilty) in California has arisen from:
high-impact climate anomalies
a strong federal/international climate science program
development of regionally-based U.S. climate program
rich science capacity, several disciplines available to
California
An unusual State Agency,
Energy Deregulation
Political circumstances, a charismatic governor and
administration w environmental awareness
Motivated, capable applications community
future needs:
Important to study projections from a range of simulations
to explore possible, but uncertain future
California’s setting, ecosystems, social systems responds
uniquely to climate change
We still lack spatial detail—
how will California’s meso and micro-climates respond?
Secular changes will accentuate higher frequency events
natural variability matters!
Sector impacts-exploration has only begun
models and data may not be adequate
USGS established a
hydroclimate-chemistry
Research project in
Yosemite National Park
in the 1990’s
A WALK THROUGH THE
HYDROCLIMATE NETWORK IN
YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK:
RIVER CHEMISTRY
Dave Peterson, Rich Smith, Steve Hager
Sierra Nature Notes Vol 4, June 2004
Stream gages
Yosemite
National Park
1999
• only sites in
Yosemite
Valley,
monitoring
large basins
since 1916
2001
• after
consultation
with the Park,
Gages added
throughout
high country
Air temperature
Sensors (blue diamonds)