International Telecommunication Union
SPU
IPTV: New Challenge for
Global ICT Sector Policies
Jaroslaw K. Ponder
ITU Strategy and Policy Unit
ITU-T IPTV Global Technical Workshop
Seoul, Korea, 12-13 October 2006
Agenda
SPU
o
o
o
o
o
o
Telecom and Broadcasting Sector
Convergence Process
IPTV Drivers and Obstacles
Regulatory considerations
Global policies
Conclusions
ITU-T IPTV Global Technical Workshop
Seoul, Korea, 12-13 October 2006
2
Trends in Telecom and Broadcasting
Monopoly
Competition
Narrowband
Broadband
Traditional
networks
NGNs
Wireline
Wireless
Telecoms/IT
Convergence
Convergence
Voice
Data / Video
Triple Play
Telecoms
National
Global
Pasive
Interactivity
General
Personalised
ITU-T IPTV Global Technical Workshop
Seoul, Korea, 12-13 October 2006
Ubiquitous,
personalized and
interactive service
Video
Services
Telco Sector
SPU
3
Telecom Sector in Transition
SPU
Broadband/Mobility
Now
Service A
Service B
Service C
Net. A
Net. B
Net. C
NGN
VoIP
Fixed: PSTN
Mobile: 2G
QoS
USO
Reg. Int.
Simulation
Emulation
Multimedia
Generalized mobility
Convergence
Integrity
Multi-layer orientation
Open character
Next Generation Services
QoS, Mobility, Interactivity,
Personalization, N-play
IP-environment
Future
Services A, B, C
IP Platform
(QoS)
Access Networks
Interconnection / Emerging markets / Universal services / Competition
Numbering / Quality of Services / Emergency Access / Consumer Protection
ITU-T IPTV Global Technical Workshop
Seoul, Korea, 12-13 October 2006
4
Converging Markets
SPU
Broadcast
ing/
Satelite
Fixed
Telec.
Cable-TV
Mobile
Telec.
Wire
less
Infr. less
s. prov.
Voice
Internet
Television/
Radio
Services on
Demand
(VoD…)
Note:
historically, the main service provided over the access platform
ITU-T IPTV Global Technical Workshop
Seoul, Korea, 12-13 October 2006
5
IPTV: Market Trends
SPU
o Beijing RIC Information Consulting (2005): Global
• 2006: the global revenue of IPTV service Æ
$8 billion with over 8 million subscribers.
• Users: 2004: 2.19 million Æ 2008: 20.44 million
o 21st Century Communications World Forum :
• 2006: 2-3 Million U.
IPTV Users in Europe
o Gartner (2006): Europe
• 2006: 3.3 million users
• 2010: more than 16 Million Users
• Additional revenues generated will
Source: Gartner (2006)
grow from 336 Million to 3 Billion
ITU-T IPTV Global Technical Workshop
Seoul, Korea, 12-13 October 2006
6
IPTV: Market Trends
SPU
o France
IPTV Users in Europe
• 2006: 1,7 mln / Revenues 141 mln Euro
• 2010: 5 mln / Revenues 682 mln Euro
o UK
• 2006: 75 tys. Æ 2010: 1,9 mln.
o Germany
Source: Gartner (2006)
• 2006: 47 tys. Æ 2010: 2,8 mln w
• 2010: Revenues: 465 mln Euro
• Deutsche Telecom / Microsoft / Premiere
o Hong Kong's PCCW
• 30% of the world's IPTV customers – and 61% of Asian
subscribers – 2005: 500,000 subscribers
• the churn rate has dropped by half
o China
• Subject of special licenses
• Shanghai Media Group (SMG)
ITU-T IPTV Global Technical Workshop
Seoul, Korea, 12-13 October 2006
7
Fixed and Mobile Operators Revenues
SPU
Revenues Worldwide
1 800
More than 200 M. S.
Broadband take-up
faster than mobile
Historic Growth R.
1 600
1 400
Broadband: 94% CAGR
Mobile: 32% CAGR
BUSD
1 200
1 000
800
600
VoIP and IPTV
strong growth
dynamics
400
200
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Fixed Telephony & NB Internet
Broadband Access
Mobile Voice
VoIP & IPTV
Corporate Data Services
Mobile Data
Traditional
telephony
revenues are
rapidly declining
Source: Ericsson Estimates
ITU-T IPTV Global Technical Workshop
Seoul, Korea, 12-13 October 2006
8
IPTV: Drivers and Obstacles
SPU
Drivers
Obstacles
o Telecom competition
• Inter-modal comp.
• Pricing and sell
strategies
o Broadband deployment
o Content providers
• New ubiquitous
distribution platform
o Convergence
• Bundling strategies
o User
• Switching behavior
o
o
o
o
Regulatory environment
Standardization process
Margin redistribution
New form of service
• Interactivity
o User
• Cost of the STB / Hardware
providers / Operators
• Willingness to migrate
• Willingness to pay for: TV
Services / Video on
Demand / Next generation
services
• Consumer protection
ITU-T IPTV Global Technical Workshop
Seoul, Korea, 12-13 October 2006
9
Customers Sensitivity
SPU
ITU-T IPTV Global Technical Workshop
Seoul, Korea, 12-13 October 2006
10
IPTV: Who has the power?
Voice
Data
Video
Content Providers
Service
Provider
Service
Provider
Service
Provider
Internet
Regulation
Network Operators
Broadcaster
Cabel TV
Wireless
Satelite
Mobile
ISPs
Access
Telcos
Consumer
Protection
Broadcasting Communic.
Authority
Authority
Software
Developers
National
Broadcasting
System
Competition
Commission
SPU
ITU-T IPTV Global Technical Workshop
Seoul, Korea, 12-13 October 2006
Customers / Users
11
IPTV: Implications
SPU
o Infrastructure requirements
• 6-16 MBit/s for HDTV / Narrow Band TV
• Bandwidth / Generalized mobility
• ADSL2+/VDSL/FTTx/3G/4G/WiFi/WiMAX
Margin
Revenues
o Standardization process (STB)
o Compression Methods
o Value Creation Chain
• True margin redistribution
Users
o Triple-play
• Distribution platforms /Interaction
• Broadcasting /One way communication
o Regulatory reform
ITU-T IPTV Global Technical Workshop
Seoul, Korea, 12-13 October 2006
12
IPTV: Regulatory considerations
SPU
IPTV
Policy/Regulatory Goals
o Socio-economic goals o Application and service
• New markets
o Investment
• Fosters competition
o Innovation
o New architecture and
bottlenecks
Regulatory Focus
o New cost models
o Static and dynamic
• Market analysis
efficiences
• Cross-subsidies
o Monopolistic
o Boundary: infrastructure
bottlenecks
and the content
o Market failures
o Ex-post r. v. ex-ante r. o Cross-ownerships
ITU-T IPTV Global Technical Workshop
Seoul, Korea, 12-13 October 2006
13
IPTV regulatory requirements
SPU
o Infrastructure
• From legacy infrastructure to investment
• Inter-modal competition
• Local loop un-bundling
• Net neutrality
• Interconnection
• Universal service
o Symmetric regulation
• Quality of services
o Consumer protection
o Definition of IPTV in legal systems
• IP Hybrid-service / Information service / Broadcast
service / Linear versus non-linear services
ITU-T IPTV Global Technical Workshop
Seoul, Korea, 12-13 October 2006
14
Global Agreements
SPU
o Global Agreement on Trade in Services
• IPTV on managed networks: Cross-border
service provision
• IPTV in open environment raises similar
concerns as for the e-services
o Basic Agreement on Telecommunications
• Institutional issues
o Information Technologies Agreement
• As an effect of the convergence more often
updates required
ITU-T IPTV Global Technical Workshop
Seoul, Korea, 12-13 October 2006
15
Conclusions
SPU
o Telecommunications converges with
broadcasting industry very fast
• Required strict distinction of transport and content
regulation
• Imposing old regulatory schemes to the new
technologies may weaken growth dynamics
o Institutional issues
• New dimension of regulatory reform
o Competition issues
• All-IP environment fosters competition
• By this complexity rapid move ex-post regulation is
not possible
o Symmetric versus asymmetric regulation
ITU-T IPTV Global Technical Workshop
Seoul, Korea, 12-13 October 2006
16
International Telecommunication Union
SPU
Thank you very much for
Your attention
Jaroslaw K. Ponder
ITU Strategy and Policy Unit
<Jaroslaw.Ponder@itu.int>
ITU-T IPTV Global Technical Workshop
Seoul, Korea, 12-13 October 2006
The Future of Voice
SPU
o
o
o
o
Research Programme
Background Materials Page
Three Background Papers
Three Regional Studies
•
•
•
•
o
Asia
Africa
South Eastern Europe
Latin America
Workshop: January 2007
New Initiatives
Programme
www.itu.int/ni
www.itu.int/spu/voice
ITU-T IPTV Global Technical Workshop
Seoul, Korea, 12-13 October 2006
18