More Connectivity, More Reality and More Intelligence April 7, 2005 Makoto Yokozawa Senior Consultant, Nomura Research Institute (Visiting Professor at Kyoto Univ.) Copyright (c) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All Rights Reserved. 0 On the way here, 10,000 meters above Russia was an ubiquitous flight. Copyright (c) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All Rights Reserved. 1 The Ubiquitous Network from Supplier’s Point of View Information Car navigation appliances systems Set-top box home servers Broadband Digital TV sets FTTH, xDSL, CATV, FWA, 3-G cellphones, Digital broadcasting, etc. The Ubiquitous Network Video games Cell phones Mobile PC Multi-media kiosks Servers PC WS Web computing PC PC MobilePC CSS Server PC Electronic tag sensors /actuators IPv6 PC Internet Copyright (c) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Mainframe PDAs Intelligent vending machines Blue Tooth, IEEE1394, Wireless LAN ITS, Electrical light cable networks, wireless tags, etc. 2 The World of the “Exotic Network” Energize/Materialize Transporter Holodeck VR ROOM Time Machine Unlimited Imagination Space Communication Hyper-warp engine Electronic Paper DNA-chip The Exotic Network Bio-signaling Quantum ICT Smart-dust Wearable Copyright (c) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All Rights Reserved. 3 “Frontier Technologies” in the past 1. 2. Wi 3. In rele j 4. Na ecta ss S 5. Me no S ble enso 1.Life sciences, genomics and biotechnology for health 6. Gr cha ola Tiss r N e r . Advanced genomics and its applications for health 7. Mo id C tron Ce ue E two l o i l 8. ng r k Na lecu mp cs s . Combatting major diseases ine s u 9. n l t a So oim r er in g 2. Information Society technologies ing 10 Gl ftwa pri Ima . g n y 3. Nanotechnologies and nano-sciences, knowledge-based multifunctional Qu com re A t Li ing ) and new production processes and devices an materials ss tho i c tu ling ur s l g e t r m an ry Cr ce aphy sto 4. Aeronautics and) space . yp g . " troeless 5. Food quality e (e tingand safety r i g u u t ) p W ra ul m ph com 6. Sustainable development, global change and ecosystems ded d C uantu d n n m y e a o u b t Q ti h ) n a c o s a i c Em e i u id . Sustainable energy systems C erif een T ting (B ndro and q V 1. SO l A w u ( r p ? et la ma . Sustainable surface transport 2. For ergy b n Com Alive olecu r o m n e . " . Global change and ecosystems 3 Sy t-Silic mput (or e) l y s o b g o C 4. o P ra 7. Citizens and governance in a knowledge-based society g nol our figu n 5. o Is y o-tech putin ting c 8. Specific activities covering a wider field of research m re u 6. Nan ile Co Comp pair ( e b 7. Mo asive Self-r ting v . 8 Per matic ompu ems tion a C t o r t s . e g u y 9 iv ic S A te ve r --in c 10. e Per oscop Paper ines r l Sp h 11. Mic lacing n Mac orma ) n F l 12. Rep -micro l and ontro ractio e c a 13. Sub iform voice on Int . i ( 14 Sem HCI ormat . f 5 1 Hew an In atics . m 16 Hu inform ums . r 7 1 Bio re Fo . u t 18 Fu . 9 4 1 Copyright (c) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All Rights Reserved. UbN Future 1) Connectivity • Ubiquitous Network, a set of transformation of society. – whenever, whoever, wherever, whatever . . . . , however, – Need years to have unlimited Connectivity even in the most advanced countries. – The Ubiquitous Network will be a frontier towards the year 2010. Copyright (c) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All Rights Reserved. 5 Start of the Internet Penetration On the Move In the House Entrance・ Garden Customer Call Bath Bedroom Kitchen Commuting Living room (analogue communication) Work from Home Traveling ● ~100m ~10m ~1m ~10cm ・PC ・Modem ・Printer ISDN Cupper Network ・PC Mobile Work Place ・Server ・ Printer ・DSU ・Modem ~10cm ISDN ● At Own Desk ・ ~1m ・ Handheld terminal ・PC ~10m ・Server Meeting & Conference Visiting (Hospital、Public Service Office etc.) ・DSU ~100m Entertainment Leased line (ISDN etc.) (Cinema, Watching sports) ● Shopping OutCopyright of the House (c) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Storefront Receive Visitors In the Office 6 The Ubiquitous Network Satellite communication Customer Call On the Move ● GPS GPS Bath ● ● Bedroom ● Cell phone Cell phone Cell phone 3G , 5G ● . /3 ho l p 3G FTTH GPS Cel GPS ● Kitchen ● Power line networkDigital ● broadcasting ・Airplane IEEE802.11a/g phone 3G Cell ● ● Commuting In the House Entrance・ Garden ● ● ・Train ・Web camera ・Sensor ・garden sprinkler ・Garage ●Satellite communication ss ce ac Living room l Ce ● FTTH ne nd ● ・Shutter FTTH ・Own car ba ・Home ad ・Sensor・Sensor ・Modem ro b server Cell phone ・Gateway ・Lighting nt ne na ・Cloth ・Car ・Clothes washer ・Air pho ● pho te Car navigation system Lighting ・Electric conditionerti ne ell drier C Hot spot ・Lighting G l 3G ● Bath tab ・Closet Rice cooker pot 3.5 ・Gateway Mu ・Car Cel ・Mobile PC ・ ne ・Microwave DSRC l p ・Car navigation pho ・Air B ・PDA ・Refrigerator l hon UW Cell phone ・Clothes Cel ・Audio system IEEEE802.11a/g conditioner e ・DVD ・Cell phone ● 3G ● (RFID)・Digital TV set ・Car navigation ・Food ・IP phone ・Game machine 3G ・Bus/Delivery FTTH system ・Automatic ticket Cell ・Web camera ・Gateway (RFID) Digital ● track phon gate ・Cell phone ・IP phone ・Mobile PC e ・Car navigation ● ・Bookshelf ADSL broadcasting ・IC card ・Modem ・Book(RFID) system ・Lighting ・Headset ・Ubiquitous Cell phone・Video Cell phone camera ・Air ・Car ・Ubiquitous 3GCell phone terminal ・Cell phone 802.11a/gconditioner ● EE ・Lan at Home IE terminal PC ・ ~100m ~10m ~1m ~10cm ・Printer ● l ph e on ● 3G Cel l ● ● ● GPS FTTH ● Mobile Work Place ● ● (Cinema, Watching sports) ● ne g pho a/ ll .11 GCe 02 3.5 3G/ ● DigitalCell phone broadcasting FTTH Cell phone ● At Own Desk Backbone network Meeting & Conference ● ● Shopping OutCopyright of the House Satellite (c) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All Rights Reserved. communication ● Work from Home Cell phone ~100m ● Entertainment E8 IE E ● Visiting (Hospital、Public Service Office etc.) se ou -h rk In wo ・ net Cell ・Multifunction copier IEEE802.11b ・IP phone IEEE802.11b ・Gateway ・Printer ・Ubiquitous ・IP phone ・Server ・Mobile PC ADSL ・ g terminal a/ ・PC Web camera IEEE802.11 ・PDA ・Lighting Ubiquitous Document/Book ・MMK ● ・Printer ・Mobile terminal (RFID) ・Book shelves PC ・Hot spot ・Air conditioner ・Mobile PC ・Cell phone G ・IC card ・Mobile PC ・Sensor 3.5 e a/g ・Rack ・Document(RFID) phon ・Projector IE ・PC .11 ell ・Medical equipment EE 3G C 802 ・Information ・Gateway E ・Cell phone E ・IC card ・PDA 8 IE 02 ~10cm Video camera KIOSK ZigBee .11 ・Handheld ・Printer ・Automatic ・Cell phone ・Gateway a ・Mobile PC ・Gateway ・Air terminal /g ● ・IP phone ticket gate ・Cash register ・PC ・PSA ・Sensor phone conditioner WLL ・Lighting ・MMK ・Goods(RFID) ・Lighting (POS) ・Air e FTTH ・IP phone ・Network at Office on Ticket-vending・MMK conditioner ph FTTH ● machine ・Price tag ・Sensor ll Display・・Display e C ・Web camera ・Web camera 5G rack 3. MAN ・Air ・PC ・Server ・Sensor ・Air conditioner Cell phone ・Storage ・Sensor ● conditioner ・ ・Gateway ● FTTH ・In-h Lighting net ou wo se ・Gateway rk ・In-store network 3.5 G C ell pho ne 3.5G Cell phon IEEE802. e 11a/g ● h ot to ue Bl GPS Traveling Storefront Receive Visitors In the Office 7 The Ubiquitous Network-A Part • 2010, the year of the framework completion • still need seamless integration of connectivity • Transparent connectivity will increase the hours of networked human activity •The number of UbN’ed scenes in life, work and business will be the key in the next stage Copyright (c) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All Rights Reserved. 8 The “Ubiq. Hours” • a measure of social ubiquity of the information network • one individual connected to the Ubiquitous/broadband network for one hour = one ubiq. hour (hru) Estimated ubiq. hours per year worldwide [hru] 1014 1013 “Good Night” ceiling < ~104 [hru] Æ including “subconscious connectivity” 1012 Population ceiling < ~1010 1011 Æ 1010 109 Numbers are by imagination beyond 2005 x “Whenever” factor x 3 108 3hr/day x 365 = ~10 107 “Whoever” factor 106 Some 107 each in all advanced nations 1993 1995 2000 2005 Copyright (c) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All Rights Reserved. 2010 2015 2020 9 More Connectivity • Ubiquitous network industry needs “Connectivity” • Beyond the year 2010, “Whenever” for advanced countries • Still need “Whoever” effort for other countries POTENTIAL MARKET (arbitrary unit) Connectivity based market expansion The Network Effect comes in the combination of [hru] 0 0.2 0.6 0.8 Social Ubiquity Copyright (c) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All Rights Reserved. 1.0 x 1011 [hru] 10 UbN Future 2) Reality • Connectivity needs “R” – Robotics, RFID, Software Radio, Real world ….. – Subconscious Connectivity : while you are …ing. • while you are sleeping • while you are driving • while you are flying • while you are in Geneva ……. will need connectable real world environments Copyright (c) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All Rights Reserved. 11 Always On the Network Outside of homes Shopping In transit warehouses Business trips, sales and leisure (33 minutes) wireless 無線 wireless cash register s wireless Outdoors shelves and kiosks Kitchen commuting, leisure The Internet PC desks meeting visitors Desks wireless living room children’s rooms wireless conferences In the homes Copyright (c) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Office in-transit 12 Realworld ubiquity Source: MIC u-Japan Policy Overview, 2005 Copyright (c) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All Rights Reserved. 13 UbN Future 3) Intelligence • Reality needs “I” – Intelligence, innovation, inspiration, intercultural ….. – Intelligent ubiquity will remove long queues at clinics, ticketing offices, elevators, immigrations as ITS is to reduce traffic jams – Innovative communication will accelerate value creation Copyright (c) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All Rights Reserved. 14 ICT’s elemental functions Memory/Storage Innovation Communication Emotion Sensors Presentation Actuators Mechanical Engineering Transportation 20th Century Copyright (c) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All Rights Reserved. 15 Queue-free society GOAL All “mismatch” problems in the human society can be potentially solved by intelligent and ubiquitous network Smooth traffic unorganized mismatch RFIDs and sensor networks and intelligent control systems START Copyright (c) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All Rights Reserved. 16 Intercultural communication •Machine translation •Knowledgebase •Cross-cultural collaboration platform •Semantics Less competition and more collaboration will benefit the global economy EAST ASIA (Kanji and chopsticks based culture) will be a good testbed Copyright (c) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All Rights Reserved. 17 Innovation engineering •Digital archive could be an idea amplifier •Tacit knowledge communication will make the Ubiquitous network a common meeting ground •From simple communication to reciprocitybased community •Knowledge community •Community money system(“Time Dollar”) •Weblogs Copyright (c) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All Rights Reserved. 18 Concluding remarks MORE CONNECTIVITY Æ Develops potential communication demands MORE REALITY Æ Resolves problems in the real world MORE INTELLIGENCE Æ Changes the society like “no one has gone before” Copyright (c) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All Rights Reserved. 19