More Connectivity, More Reality and More Intelligence
April 7, 2005
Makoto Yokozawa
Senior Consultant, Nomura Research Institute
(Visiting Professor at Kyoto Univ.)
Copyright (c) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
0
On the way here, 10,000 meters above Russia
was an ubiquitous flight.
Copyright (c) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
1
The Ubiquitous Network from Supplier’s Point of View
Information
Car navigation appliances
systems
Set-top box
home servers
Broadband
Digital TV sets
FTTH, xDSL, CATV, FWA,
3-G cellphones,
Digital broadcasting, etc.
The Ubiquitous Network
Video games
Cell phones
Mobile PC
Multi-media kiosks
Servers
PC
WS
Web
computing
PC
PC
MobilePC
CSS
Server
PC
Electronic tag sensors
/actuators
ＩＰｖ６
PC
Internet
Copyright (c) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
Mainframe
PDAs
Intelligent vending
machines
Blue Tooth, IEEE1394, Wireless LAN
ITS, Electrical light cable networks,
wireless tags, etc.
2
The World of the “Exotic Network”
Energize/Materialize Transporter
Holodeck VR ROOM
Time Machine Unlimited Imagination
Space Communication
Hyper-warp engine
Electronic Paper
DNA-chip
The Exotic Network
Bio-signaling
Quantum ICT
Smart-dust
Wearable
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3
“Frontier Technologies” in the past
1.
2.
Wi
3.
In rele
j
4.
Na ecta ss S
5.
Me no S ble enso
1.Life sciences, genomics and biotechnology for health
6.
Gr cha ola Tiss r N
e
r
. Advanced genomics and its applications for health
7.
Mo id C tron Ce ue E two
l
o
i
l
8.
ng r k
Na lecu mp cs s
. Combatting major diseases
ine s
u
9.
n
l
t
a
So oim r
er
in g
2. Information Society technologies
ing
10
Gl ftwa pri Ima
.
g
n
y
3. Nanotechnologies and nano-sciences, knowledge-based multifunctional
Qu com re A t Li ing
) and new production processes and devices
an
materials
ss tho
i
c
tu
ling
ur
s
l
g
e
t
r
m
an
ry
Cr
ce aphy
sto 4. Aeronautics and) space
.
yp
g
.
"
troeless
5. Food quality
e (e
tingand safety
r
i
g
u
u
t
)
p
W
ra
ul
m
ph
com
6. Sustainable
development, global change and ecosystems
ded
d C uantu
d
n
n
m
y
e
a
o
u
b
t
Q
ti
h
)
n
a
c
o
s
a
i
c
Em
e
i
u
id
. Sustainable energy systems
C
erif een T ting (B ndro and q
V
1.
SO
l
A
w
u
(
r
p
?
et
la
ma
. Sustainable surface transport
2.
For ergy b n Com Alive olecu
r
o
m
n
e
.
"
. Global change and ecosystems
3
Sy t-Silic mput
(or
e)
l
y
s
o
b
g
o
C
4.
o
P
ra
7. Citizens and governance in a knowledge-based society
g
nol
our
figu
n
5.
o
Is y o-tech putin ting
c
8. Specific activities covering a wider field of research
m
re
u
6.
Nan ile Co Comp pair (
e
b
7.
Mo asive Self-r ting
v
.
8
Per matic ompu ems
tion
a
C
t
o
r
t
s
.
e
g
u
y
9
iv ic S
A
te
ve r
--in
c
10.
e
Per oscop Paper ines
r
l Sp
h
11.
Mic lacing n Mac orma )
n
F
l
12.
Rep -micro l and ontro ractio
e
c
a
13.
Sub iform voice on Int
.
i
(
14
Sem HCI ormat
.
f
5
1
Hew an In atics
.
m
16
Hu inform ums
.
r
7
1
Bio re Fo
.
u
t
18
Fu
.
9
4
1
Copyright (c) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
UbN Future 1) Connectivity
• Ubiquitous Network, a set of
transformation of society.
– whenever, whoever, wherever,
whatever . . . . , however,
– Need years to have unlimited
Connectivity even in the most
advanced countries.
– The Ubiquitous Network will be
a frontier towards the year 2010.
Copyright (c) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
5
Start of the Internet Penetration
On the Move
In the
House
Entrance・
Garden
Customer Call
Bath
Bedroom
Kitchen
Commuting
Living room
（analogue
communication）
Work ｆrom
Home
Traveling
●
～100ｍ
～10ｍ
～1ｍ ～10ｃｍ
・PC
・Modem
・Printer
ISDN
Cupper　Network
・PC
Mobile Work
Place
・Server
・ Printer
・DSU
・Modem
～10ｃｍ
ISDN
●
At Own Desk
・
～1ｍ
・ Handheld terminal
・PC
～10ｍ
・Server
Meeting &
Conference
Visiting
（Hospital、Public Service
Office etc.）
・DSU
～100ｍ
Entertainment
Leased line
（ISDN etc.）
(Cinema, Watching sports)
●
Shopping
OutCopyright
of the
House
(c) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
Storefront
Receive
Visitors
In the Office
6
The
Ubiquitous
Network
Satellite
communication
Customer Call
On the Move
●
GPS
GPS
Bath
●
●
Bedroom
●
Cell phone
Cell phone
Cell phone
3G
,
5G
●
.
/3
ho
l p
3G
FTTH
GPS
Cel
GPS ●
Kitchen
●
Power line
networkDigital
●
broadcasting
・Airplane
IEEE802.11a/g
phone
3G Cell
●
●
Commuting
In the
House
Entrance・
Garden
● ●
・Train
・Web camera
・Sensor
・garden sprinkler
・Garage
●Satellite communication
ss
ce
ac
Living room
l
Ce
●
FTTH
ne
nd ●
・Shutter
FTTH
・Own
car
ba
・Home
ad
・Sensor・Sensor ・Modem
ro
b
server
Cell phone
・Gateway
・Lighting
nt
ne
na
・Cloth
・Car
・Clothes washer ・Air
pho ●
pho
te
Car
navigation
system
Lighting
・Electric
conditionerti
ne
ell
drier
C
Hot spot
・Lighting
G
l
3G　●
Bath tab ・Closet Rice cooker
pot
3.5
・Gateway
Mu
・Car
Cel
・Mobile PC
・
ne
・Microwave
DSRC
l p
・Car navigation
pho
・Air B
・PDA
・Refrigerator
l
hon
UW
Cell phone
・Clothes
Cel
・Audio
system
IEEEE802.11a/g
conditioner
e
・DVD
・Cell phone
●
3G
●
（RFID）・Digital TV set
・Car navigation
・Food
・IP
phone
・Game
machine
３G　・Bus/Delivery
FTTH
system
・Automatic
ticket
Cell
・Web camera ・Gateway
（RFID）
Digital
●
track
phon
gate ・Cell phone
・IP phone
・Mobile PC
e ・Car navigation
●
・Bookshelf
ADSL
broadcasting
・IC card
・Modem
・Book（RFID）
system
・Lighting
・Headset
・Ubiquitous Cell phone・Video
Cell phone
camera ・Air
・Car
・Ubiquitous
３GCell phone
terminal
・Cell phone
802.11a/gconditioner
●
EE
・Lan at Home
IE
terminal
PC ・
～100ｍ
～10ｍ ～1ｍ ～10ｃｍ
・Printer
●
l
ph
e
on
●
3G　Cel
l
●
●
●
GPS
FTTH
●
Mobile Work
Place
●
●
(Cinema, Watching sports)
●
ne
g
pho
a/
ll
.11
GCe
02
3.5
3G/
●
DigitalCell phone
broadcasting
FTTH
Cell phone
●
At Own Desk
Backbone network
Meeting &
Conference
●
●
Shopping
OutCopyright
of the
House
Satellite
(c) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
communication
●
Work ｆrom
Home
Cell phone
～100ｍ
●
Entertainment
E8
IE E
●
Visiting
（Hospital、Public Service
Office etc.）
se
ou
-h rk
In wo
・ net
Cell
・Multifunction copier
IEEE802.11b
・IP phone
IEEE802.11b
・Gateway ・Printer
・Ubiquitous
・IP phone ・Server
・Mobile PC
ADSL
・
g
terminal
a/
・PC
Web camera
IEEE802.11
・PDA
・Lighting
Ubiquitous
Document/Book
・MMK
●
・Printer
・Mobile
terminal
（RFID) ・Book shelves
PC
・Hot spot
・Air conditioner
・Mobile
PC ・Cell phone
G
・IC card
・Mobile PC
・Sensor
3.5
e
a/g ・Rack ・Document（RFID）
phon
・Projector
IE ・PC
.11
ell
・Medical equipment
EE
3G C
802 ・Information
・Gateway
E
・Cell
phone
E
・IC
card
・PDA
8
IE
02
～10ｃｍ
Video camera
KIOSK
ZigBee
.11
・Handheld
・Printer ・Automatic ・Cell phone
・Gateway
a
・Mobile
PC
・Gateway
・Air
terminal
/g
●
・IP phone
ticket gate
・Cash register ・PC
・PSA
・Sensor
phone
conditioner
WLL
・Lighting ・MMK
・Goods（RFID)
・Lighting
（POS）
・Air
e
FTTH
・IP
phone
・Network
at
Office
on
Ticket-vending・MMK
conditioner
ph
FTTH ●
machine
・Price tag
・Sensor
ll
Display・・Display
e
C
・Web camera
・Web camera
5G
rack
3.
MAN
・Air
・PC ・Server
・Sensor
・Air
conditioner
Cell phone
・Storage ・Sensor
●
conditioner
・
・Gateway
● FTTH ・In-h
Lighting
net ou
wo se
・Gateway
rk
・In-store network
3.5
G C
ell
pho
ne
3.5G
Cell
phon
IEEE802.
e
11a/g
●
h
ot
to
ue
Bl
GPS
Traveling
Storefront
Receive
Visitors
In the Office
7
The Ubiquitous Network-A Part
• 2010, the year of the framework completion
• still need seamless
integration of connectivity
• Transparent connectivity
will increase the hours of
networked human activity
•The number of UbN’ed
scenes in life, work and
business will be the key in
the next stage
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8
The “Ubiq. Hours”
• a measure of social ubiquity of the information network
• one individual connected to the Ubiquitous/broadband network
for one hour = one ubiq. hour (hru)
Estimated ubiq. hours per year worldwide [hru]
1014
1013
“Good Night” ceiling < ~104
[hru]
Æ
including “subconscious connectivity”
1012
Population ceiling < ~1010
1011
Æ
1010
109
Numbers are
by imagination
beyond 2005
x
“Whenever”
factor
x
3
108
3hr/day x 365 = ~10
107
“Whoever” factor
106
Some 107 each in all advanced nations
1993
1995
2000
2005
Copyright (c) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
2010
2015
2020
9
More Connectivity
• Ubiquitous network industry needs “Connectivity”
• Beyond the year 2010, “Whenever” for advanced countries
• Still need “Whoever” effort for other countries
POTENTIAL MARKET
(arbitrary unit)
Connectivity based market expansion
The Network
Effect comes in
the combination
of [hru]
0
0.2
0.6
0.8
Social Ubiquity
Copyright (c) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
1.0 x 1011
[hru]
10
UbN Future 2) Reality
• Connectivity needs “R”
– Robotics, RFID, Software Radio, Real world …..
– Subconscious Connectivity : while you are
…ing.
• while you are sleeping
• while you are driving
• while you are flying
• while you are in Geneva …….
will need connectable real world environments
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11
Always On the Network
Outside of homes
Shopping
In transit
warehouses
Business trips, sales and leisure
(33 minutes)
wireless
無線
wireless
cash
register
s
wireless
Outdoors
shelves
and kiosks
Kitchen
commuting, leisure
The　Internet
PC desks
meeting
visitors
Desks
wireless
living room
children’s
rooms
wireless
conferences
In the homes
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Office
in-transit
12
Realworld ubiquity
Source: MIC u-Japan Policy Overview, 2005
Copyright (c) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
13
UbN Future 3) Intelligence
• Reality needs “I”
– Intelligence, innovation, inspiration,
intercultural …..
– Intelligent ubiquity will remove long
queues at clinics, ticketing offices,
elevators, immigrations as ITS is to
reduce traffic jams
– Innovative communication will accelerate
value creation
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14
ICT’s elemental functions
Memory/Storage
Innovation
Communication
Emotion
Sensors
Presentation
Actuators
Mechanical
Engineering
Transportation
20th Century
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15
Queue-free society
GOAL
All “mismatch” problems in the
human society can be
potentially solved by intelligent
and ubiquitous network
Smooth traffic
unorganized mismatch
RFIDs and sensor networks
and intelligent control systems
START
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16
Intercultural communication
•Machine translation
•Knowledgebase
•Cross-cultural collaboration platform
•Semantics
Less competition and
more collaboration will
benefit the global
economy
EAST ASIA (Kanji and
chopsticks based culture)
will be a good testbed
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17
Innovation engineering
•Digital archive could be an idea amplifier
•Tacit knowledge communication will make the
Ubiquitous network a common meeting ground
•From simple communication to reciprocitybased community
•Knowledge community
•Community money system(“Time Dollar”)
•Weblogs
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18
Concluding remarks
MORE CONNECTIVITY
Æ Develops potential communication demands
MORE REALITY
Æ Resolves problems in the real world
MORE INTELLIGENCE
Æ Changes the society like “no one has gone before”
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19