Beef Cattle Outlook
Dr. Curt Lacy
Extension Economist-Livestock
Current Situation
$ Per Cwt.
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
MED. & LRG. #1 & 2 STEER CALF PRICES
500-600 Pounds, Georgia, Weekly
JAN
APR
JUL
Avg. 2008-12
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center
2013
OCT
2014
$ Per Cwt.
160
MED. & LRG. #1 & 2 FEEDER STEER PRICES
700-800 Pounds, Georgia, Weekly
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
JAN
APR
Avg. 2008-12
JUL
2013
2014
OCT
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center
08/12/13
SLAUGHTER STEER PRICES
5 Market Weighted Average, Weekly
$ Per Cwt.
155
Avg.
2008-12
145
135
2013
125
115
105
2014
95
JAN
APR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
JUL
OCT
Factors Impacting Cattle Markets and
Profitability
• Economy (consumer
demand).
• Crop prices
– Feeder cattle demand
– Sector profitability
• Big picture items
Beef and Feeder Cattle Demand
Beef Demand
• Consumers’ income
• Prices of competing meats
• Exports
Feeder Cattle Demand
• Fed cattle profits
• Price of fed cattle
• Price of corn
• Available capital
• Stocker cattle profits
• Price of feeder cattle
• Cost of grazing & feed
BEEF DEMAND
PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE
PERSONAL INCOME
Dollars
Quarterly
40000
38000
36000
Current
Dollar
34000
32000
2005
Dollar
30000
28000
26000
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
05/30/13
QTRLY GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)
Real Dollar (2009) Change from Previous Quarter
Percent Change
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
12/06/13
$ Per Cwt.
SOUTHERN PLAINS CALF PRICES vs
TEXAS CORN PRICES
Weekly
$ Per Bu.
215
9.00
200
8.25
185
7.50
170
6.75
155
6.00
140
5.25
125
4.50
110
3.75
3.00
95
2010
2011
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
2012
2013
2014
02/05/14
5-600 lb
Steer
Texas
Corn
U.S. Corn Supply and Demand
Mil bu
16,000
50%
14,000
40%
12,000
Mill. Of Bushels
10,000
30%
8,000 19.8%
17.5%
6,000
4,000
11.6% 12.8%
13.9% 13.1%
13.7%
8.6% 7.9% 7.4%
2,000
0
2004/05
2006/07
Ending Stocks
2008/09
Production
2010/11
2012/13
Domestic Use and Exports
Data Source: USDA, WASDE. Chart prepared by Dr. Nathan Smith, UGA
20%
10%
0%
Stocks:Use
BOXED BEEF CUTOUT VALUE
Choice 600-900 Lbs. Carcass, Weekly
$ Per Cwt.
240
230
Avg.
2008-12
220
210
200
2013
190
180
170
2014
160
150
JAN
APR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
JUL
OCT
C-P-62
02/24/14
CHOICE MINUS SELECT BEEF PRICES
Carcass Cutout Value 600-900 Lbs., Weekly
$ Per Cwt.
25
Avg.
2008-12
20
15
2013
10
5
2014
0
JAN
APR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
JUL
OCT
C-P-68
02/24/14
PRIMAL LOIN VALUE
Monthly
$/Cwt
425
Prime
395
365
Branded
335
305
Choice
275
245
Select
215
185
Ungraded
155
Feb-13
Apr-13
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Jun-13
Aug-13
Oct-13
Dec-13
PRIMAL CHUCK VALUE
Monthly
$/Cwt
210
Prime
200
190
Branded
180
Choice
170
Select
160
150
Ungraded
140
Feb-13
Apr-13
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Jun-13
Aug-13
Oct-13
Dec-13
PRIMAL ROUND VALUE
Monthly
$/Cwt
225
Prime
215
205
Branded
195
185
Choice
175
Select
165
155
Ungraded
145
Feb-13
Apr-13
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Jun-13
Aug-13
Oct-13
Dec-13
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled &
Analysis by LMIC
I-N-06
01/29/13
MAJOR U S BEEF EXPORT MARKETS
Carcass Weight, Annual
Mil. Pounds
800
700
Avg.
2007/11
600
500
2012
400
300
200
2013
100
0
Japan
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled &
Analysis by LMIC
Canada
Mexico
Korea
I-N-18
02/07/14
CATTLE AND BEEF SUPPLIES
BEEF COWS THAT CALVED
JANUARY 1, 2014
(1000 Head)
209
1476
943
11
350
516
445
694
114
600
325
170
885
1797
226
105
240
1635
293
359
700
1414
1820
192
191 657
1012
360
864
178
1805
387
882
174
477
3910
VT 12
NH 3
MA 6
RI 2
CT 4
NJ 8
DE 3
MD 38
671
0 to 170
170 to 387
387 to 882
882 to 3911
480
450
4
877
69
U.S. Total:
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS
29042
02/03/14
CHANGE IN BEEF COWS NUMBERS
JANUARY 1, 2013 TO JANUARY 2014
(1000 Head)
-12
-30
21
0
-25
-11
-65
0
1
-10
10
15
-40
-8
-5
3
-3
-15
86
1
-9
63
51
-3
-4
31
0
-9
-105
-29
-16
-48
3
VT 0
NH -1
MA -1
RI 0
CT -2
NJ -1
DE -1
MD -3
15
-20
-53
20
-10
-110 to -11
-11 to -1
-1 to 3
3 to 87
-4
-1
-31
-1
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS
U.S. Total:
-255
02/03/14
CHANGE IN BEEF COWS NUMBERS
JANUARY 1, 2005 TO JANUARY 2014
(1000 Head)
-31
74
-4
-1
-45
-114
-30
-12
21
-14
-22
16
-108
-112
-120
25
-5
-75
-1
-86
61
-116
-261
-38
-6
-40
-194
-12
-190
-85
-85
-48
-77
-1472
-48
-88
VT 2
NH -1
MA -1
RI 0
CT -3
NJ -2
DE -1
MD -1
-53
-116
-1500 to -85
-85 to -22
-22 to -1
-1 to 75
-44
-1
-55
-13
U.S. Total:
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS
-3632
02/03/14
JANUARY 1 “BEEF COW FACTORY’
U.S., Annual
Mil. Head
50
Beef cows down 0.9 % @ 29.04 mil
Beef replacement heifers up 1.7 % @ 5.42 mil
Total beef cow factory down 0.5 %
45
Replacement
Heifers
40
Beef Cows
35
30
25
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
Meat supplies were virtually
unchanged for two years in a row
Commodity
Beef
Pork
Total Red Meat*
Broilers
Total Poultry**
Total Red Meat & Poultry
2013
2014
2012 Projected Forecast 13 vs 12
14 vs 13
BILLION POUNDS
PERCENT CHANGE
26.00
25.72
24.32
-1.09%
-5.76%
23.27
23.20
23.58
-0.30%
1.61%
49.55
49.18
48.16
-0.75%
-2.12%
36.64
37.75
38.90
2.94%
2.96%
43.05
44.08
45.33
2.34%
2.76%
92.60
93.26
93.49
0.71%
0.25%
Source: USDA-WASDE, January 2014 Report
Past and Projected Prices
$180
$160
$140
$120
$100
$80
$60
$40
2010
SE 500# steer
Source: USDA, LMIC and UGA
2011
2012
SE 750# steer
2013
Choice fed steer
2014
2015
SE Slaughter cow
Projected Beef Cattle Profits in 2014
• Cow-calf
• Stockers
• Finishing
Graphics source: CattleFax: Long-term Outlook.
www.cattlefax.com
Big Picture Items
• Antibiotics
• GMOs
• Humane treatment of animals
Beef Cattle Summary
•
•
•
•
For 2014 expect lower production
Higher prices
Higher profits
More heifer retention
Beef Cattle Outlook
Dr. Curt Lacy
Extension Economist-Livestock
229-386-3512
clacy@uga.edu
www.secattleadvisor.com